There is some serious margin compression taking place in the oil sector, especially in the refiners. With oil wounded like a sick dog, down at these levels, I want to increase my short exposure to the space.
I know the whole dollar argument and the possibility that inflation may reemerge its ugly head. To hedge inflation, I am shorting treasuries, via TBT. However, I feel extremely comfortable shorting the like of XOM, CVX and COP, up at these levels.
When you narrow it down to marginal players, like HK or GMXR, one can make an argument for a total loss in those names, eventually. I mean, if financing is unavailable and margins are squeezed to the bone, what do you have left?
I’ll tell you what you have:
XOM buying your capped wells in bankruptcy.
At any rate, like I said earlier, I reduced my downside exposure this morning. But, at the present, I am 100% balls to the wall short crude/gas stocks, via DUG and ERY.
Fuck them.
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Never buy 3X etf’s.
Don’t fuck with the auto shop when it comes to oil
Right. I’ll punch your head from your shoulders with a monkey wrench.
‘We are 10% of the labor costs. If [the UAW] worked for nothing, it wouldn’t help [the auto industry] limp into January.’
— Ron Gettelfinger,
United Auto Workers
lol…even the UAW admits that the Big 3 Auto are doomed.
Ford just went green. God this market is FUCKED UP!
Fly I like your thoughs on oil and the TBT hedge, I’m in with you.
Me likes the call Fly. I shorted XOM on Monday and have been getting my teeth kicked in, but I am a patient man, eventually I will win.
Shorting oil plays with oil in the low 40’s may work, or it may work to get your face peeled.
People, we have a flood of shitty Alt-A Jumbo mortgages about to start resetting in the nations most white collar cities in 2009. It’s gonna dwarf the subprime fuckery. The banks simply cannot survive this. Ken Lewis knows this … that motherfucker had a plan … “Too Big To Fail”.
The Bow Tie Man validates what I’ve known for a long time.
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Jim Rogers, one of the world’s most prominent international investors, on Thursday called most of the largest U.S. banks “totally bankrupt,” and said government efforts to fix the sector are wrongheaded.
Donny
Jimmy is also long commods up the ying yang. He’s the last person to listen to for market timing. He basically seems to sit on a trade for years and then when it works calls out he’s a genius. He’s loud mouth.
J,
Isn’t that the same description for DEVILDOG?
F
$50 Billion. I just fleeced a bunch of old, wealthy New York, Floridian and European Jews. No one’s gonna care. Especially not the SEC. Certainly not Republicans.
Let ’em eat soup.
Can you believe I got away with this shit? Given the COX led SEC, no one should have a doubt.
can someone explain to me why any auto maker is green . i need to know
POOF!!!
The TARP is a turd and the Bailout is a sellout
bailout and stock the food banks, the end is near
The bow tie man is also pro agriculture and long DBA is banking some coin
Where’s the bears at? I just sacked you (http://ibankcoin.com/gioblog/?p=2512#comment-5008).
I made another INCREDIBLE call on your -350 futures the market is going down -10000000000000000000000000000 points this Friday.
Sorry, I own the Vix, and I’m buying the dips.
-gio-
Being a bear and net short I am not liking the view of this tape right now. could be a head fake with the low volume
Fuck you.
The dollar will come crashing down, and cash will flow like wine into the coffers of tyrannical oil gods. Gold will reflate, and treasuries will come falling to the dirt with the weight of 10,000 Mexicans.
Commodities will lead the way on this Santa Rally. Stocks are the only safe haven from the evil inflation monster that will eat bankrupted tax lawyers and defecate on the Washington monument.
You have just entered the “Cock Suck Zone.”
Look, Look, Look … we’re headed higher. Madoff wills it so.
So, the NY Mets and Sterling Capital are going down via Madoff? Anyone have accounts at Sterling?
DXO coming up to close this morning gap too
today shows, selling is exhausted,
Wow, luckily I got from my 3 martini lunch in time to participate – but hell who was doing all the buying during lunch?
Mr Fly,
The do have some nice medications for your Turrets Syndrome
Anonymous…ohh how’d that get there…. using a different browser. 🙂
Nice long vacations on a cruise ship also help Turrets. Vacations where you dont have to speak and let out all that uncontrollable F–K this , F–Ktard, F–Ker, F–Kish
etc….
Ive been in TNA since opening ….doing great!
motor gas just turned green. crude will be next.
Madoff was priced in .
Odd, no?
you got to love this market. LOL.
Financials picking up steam.
At any rate, like I said earlier, I reduced my downside exposure this morning. But, at the present, I am 100% balls to the wall short crude/gas stocks, via DUG and ERY.
Be careful that “the wall” isn’t actually one of those rotating circus wheels at which the blindfolded guy with the pencil thin moustaches chucks daggers.
_______
All seriousity — You know I don’t like to remonstrate in public, and I’d usually just mail you this, but I think shorting oil here is a very very bad idea, and needs to be billboarded here for the rubes that will Fly-follow on this play.
___________
At any rate, like I said earlier, I reduced my downside exposure this morning. But, at the present, I am 100% balls to the wall short crude/gas stocks, via DUG and ERY.
Be careful that “the wall” isn’t actually one of those rotating circus wheels at which the blindfolded guy with the pencil thin moustaches chucks daggers.
_______
All seriousity — You know I don’t like to remonstrate in public, and I’d usually just mail you this, but I think shorting oil here is a very very bad idea, and needs to be billboarded here for the rubes that will Fly-follow on this play.
___________
Given that the news today did not produce a sustained selloff, is it possible the market is positioning for the reflation trade? getting long commodity stocks?
Regardless of all the posturing by the govt, the auto industry will eventually get bailed out. Hopefully they can force the UAW to cave first.
Juice I believe part of the sell off yesterday was on the Madoff news.
The car manufactures down here in the South are growing and expanding…the Unions back north and east need to be eliminated
$2 swing on DRYS. Unbelievable. Im going to buy piles of SRS at $80, can’t wait….
Happy Holidays boys. Go buy your wives something nice courtesy of SRS & DRYS
FLY, my boss would kill to have a sitemeter w/ your stats. Unreal w/ flaming sandals and a grand moose knuckle
All of my work shows oil going south…..but it shows the dollar going south to.????? What the #$@%!
Fly, if you think the towel heads in the Middle East & Russia will tolerate current oil prices you’re off your rocker. I’ve been banking coin off DIG the past week and today switched to DXO.