Talking to my consultant contacts (some high up guys), they tell me their clients (Goldman Sachs, Smith Barney, Merrill Lynch) are being gutted. They tell me, JPM is way overstaffed and need to feel the ax, in a pretty egregious way. Mind you, these are the guys that would tell the guys at JPM to put the hammer down on the work force.
If you live in NYC, prepare for some pretty dicey shit. Now, I’m not talking ordinary pullback, walk in the park, get a quick blow job, type of recession. I’m talking investment bankers becoming cab drivers, renting a studio in Hell’s Kitchen amongst the rats, type of hardship.
If NY State gets 31% of their revenue from banks and insurance firms, tell me, where will they generate revenue in 2009-2010? The garment industry?
This Madoff scandal is going to leave a serious dent. Who has exposure? Who is going to eat the large sausage on this one?
Then we have the GM crisis. The GOP has nothing to lose. They are going to shoot this fucking bailout down, in an effort to appeal to the current “fuck the bailouts” mentality that is sweeping the country.
You know, I heard a staggering stat the other day. If you count all of the money the government has doled out during this crisis, it equals approximately $100,000 per U.S. citizen. Call me fucknuts, but I think sending 100k to every American would have stimulated the fuck out of this bitch, as opposed to just giving it away to some asshole CEO, who will horde the cash and/or dump it into treasuries.
Bottom line: There is NO FUCKING WAY this market starts goose stepping higher, in 2009. This is not a one year, recession is over, ha-ha funny, sort of situation. The cycle we find ourselves in will last a long, long time. Earnings will continue to slump and equity prices will underperform for years to come.
Low ball estimates on the S&P for 2009 were at around $65 p/s, when oil was trading at $75. Let me tell you, at $45 per barrel, you can look for earnings for the S&P to register in around $50 for ’09. We need to bottom out at 10x earnings.
You do the math.
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Better figure out quick who’s got all the auto related CDS crap on their books .. betcha ya that the govt will have float AIG another 15+B to cover their GM CDS losses
Oh how I love it!!!! NO BAILOUT FOR YOU!
Hopefully the UAW faggots will be shut the fuck down too. Time to get really fucking short.
Your comment was a bit too short. Please go back and try again.
Hey, whaddaya know, I can post comments again. Anyone else had wordpress tell you that your comment was too short, and to try again?
10X is rather optimistic, 82 was under 8X.
Dammit I am up 50 fucking points on these minis in no time. I will be covering the remaining 5 here 832. Who knows what might fucking pop up in the morning, some fucking double tarp gayness. If you were in the trade with me I suggest closing it out for a massive gain.
Juice, sounds like you got caught long. You should have listened to me. Even if you get out first thing in pre market you’re going to take BIG losses tomorrow. BTW, NEW LOWS this month. I’m sleeping in. Sweet BEAR dreams.
But the market can still rally another 30% before dropping 50%. Dow to 11,000 than down to 5500. S&P to 1100 and then down to 550. Odd no ?
“It’s over with,” Reid said on the Senate floor in Washington. “I dread looking at Wall Street tomorrow. It’s not going to be a pleasant sight.”
Markets will give Reid a big ‘Fuck You’ and rally 500 points. Odd no ?
The SPY trading 24 million after hours and falling to 85.83
is a little hint………get the picture?
Have you looked at the S&P futures tonight?
Either somebody blew up and is closing out at whatever bids they can get, or everything’s going down the shitter tomorrow.
Can you put a more positive spin on this story, fly? What’s the bright side?
Watching the vote on Cspan2 , they act like this is a normal day … idiots, gotta love the destruction of wealth that might happen
btw, very hard to post comments on the site tonight, need vinnie the tech guy to work on it
FLASH – Senor Tropicana bitten by rabid DevilDog! Film at 8.
Boy it sucks being long overnight. Good night ladies and gentlemen.
BTW these WP-SpamFree errors really suck. I prefer the occasional Polish spam.
Reid’s lying. The deal is done. The Dems are just gutless in not passing the bill for themselves as they want political cover from the GOP in case the thing goes haywire, which of course it will.
They’ll be able to pick up a few senators from the GOP that pretend they are Dems.
The deal is done and Reid is a bullshit artist.
Maybe we bottom in ’09 at S&P 500(why did you think they call it the S&P 500 index anyway?), however, I still call 150 for my conservative estimate in 2012 – 2015.
BTW, NEW LOWS this month.
I did the math.
$100 K for each US citizen = $30 Trillion. That’s 2.2x the annual GDP. That’s 2.5x all the current outstanding US Treasury Debt. You think we’ve spent that on the bailout so far?
Your calculator is broken.
CAP:
STFU and accept your fate like a fucking man. You are acting like a pussy.
The market is going to set your homo cock sucking head on fire tomorrow. It’s not my fault you chose to defy the stock Gods and “The Fly.”
Punishment will be doled out in the a.m.
Markets don’t say “fuck you” to comments like that or pending bankruptcy from its largest manufacturer.
Longs, I’m so sorry for your losses. This shit won’t be funny for longs in the morning. Seriously, I’m sorry. The Futes are getting the hammer–the homo and the hetero hammers of death. I don’t think there’s anything the PPT can do for longs before the open. I’m truly sorry.
The Fly is God.
Wood, the other day, this here blog told me that I was posting too quickly, and that I needed to slow down. I almost pulled out a Glock…
EYE:
Not my numbers. Some economist on Bloomberg. i think you need to exclude little babies and retards.
I trust he did the math.
D-dog .. why does it sound like I got caught long? I came into the day long oil, gold, and assorted other little shits, short consumer goods like CL PG CHD MMM RAH & SRS FAZ SDS DXD
ended up 4% on the day … I ended the day for all intents & purposes, fully hedged after tossing some more SDS SRS DXD on after hours
Cspan needs to hook up with ESPN so I can cool graphics and sound with this vote
Fly,
Great post. I’ve been working on Wall St. for over 10 years. The only thing is, I won’t be moving to Hell’s Kitchen…..probably Jersey City and do it ghetto style!
Watch CSPAN TOO.
Bill is dead.
Fuck GM.
Special Edition DVD alternate ending: Market opens down 1000 Dow points. Pres steps in and uses TARP money to save Detroit. Dow rallys 1500 points. Fly and DD cover at -1000. The rest of us get out at +1500. Everyone wins… 🙂
Madoff. $17 Billion across only 17 to 25 Palm Beach Country Club clients ? Who the fuck are these handful of people who were rich this morning, but are now dirt poor ? There won’t be as much fallout from this as initially thought.
I’m glad as shit I switched out to net short today lol. Goddamn. I would not be fucking happy if I was long. SPX futures down almost -5%!!
52 – YAY
35 – NAY
It’s dead.
Look for Bush to give GM TARP funds.
Fly , you are correct all the way around above … however, there will be a very large rally off some bottom before the depression takes hold .. whether the last bottom holds or not, I don’t know .. I originally thought we’d launch a 50% rally off January lows in the SPX 600’s … still may turn out like that … one day at a time
Madoff clients lost 17 billion.
The bad news:
He only has 11 clients!!!!
Who the fuck are they? They are done.
Sounds like CAP is dreaming without going to sleep.
Same old song…..no bill the market throws a shit fit…another emergency bill is rushed thru….the market rally’s….bill is signed and market tanks another 20% 7500-8500 becomes the new range. Good Times!
Pop all the fucking bubbles.
College Tuition
Big Pharma
Big Banking
Real Estate
Stocks
$50,000 Autos
Just where does a $75,000 BAC employee go find work tomorrow?
He will turn into a $45,000 employee. Maybe these fukcers buying T-Bills that pay -% are smarter than we think.
Damn, I took profits on my shorts at 3:45 PM today…I will get back in short in the morning even if it gaps down big…Develdog is correct lower lows this month…
WILD CARD…the AUTO BAILOUT some way in hell passes…you could see the surprise short squeeze beofre returning back to the downward cycle…anyway I look at it the BULLS are screwed for the next 6 months…
FUCK GM.
The holidays are not going to be good for everyone.
This doesn’t sound as though it’s over, fly.
WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said Thursday evening that Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn. the lead negotiator for the Republicans over talks to reach an agreement to save the U.S. auto industry, was presenting the outlines of the compromise to his GOP colleagues to gauge their level of support.
Speaking on the Senate floor, Reid said he hoped that a vote could still be held Thursday night, if Republicans agreed to the agreement being thrashed out with Democrats, and representatives of labor unions and the car companies.
According to a senior Democratic senate aide, the largest outstanding obstacle to an agreement being reached is what reduction in compensation the labor union representatives would agree to. The aide wouldn’t go into detail as to the specifics of the disagreement, nor what offer is currently on the table.
After several hours of negotiations, Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Ct., the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, briefly spoke to the media at around 8:15 p.m. EST (0115 GMT), saying that talks continued and progress was being made.
“We’ll continue on this to either we have an agreement or we reach the conclusion that one is not possible,” said Dodd.
He said that staff would continue to talk over the next hour or so, to determine the level of agreement.
Dodd, along with Sen. Richard Durbin, D-Ill., has been in talks with Corker since late afternoon Thursday. Aides to Majority Leader Reid and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., are present at the meeting.
United Auto Workers union officials, and representatives of the auto makers, were also participating in the talks.
Steve Feinberg, the reclusive owner of private equity company Cerberus Capital Management, the owner of Chrysler LLP and the majority owner of GMAC, the financial arm of General Motors Corp. (GM), was also present.
Sen. Thomas Carper, D-Del., said that the two sides are negotiating a hybrid of Corker’s proposal and a proposal negotiated between congressional Democrats, including Dodd, and the White House.
Corker’s proposal requires auto makers receiving assistance to accept conditions they work with creditors to reduce their debt by two-thirds and with the United Auto Workers union to bring labor costs in line with those of foreign auto makers, while Dodd has pushed for a “car czar” to serve as a regulator for the rescue funds.
Under the Corker plan, total labor costs, including salary and other benefits, would have to be reduced significantly to come into line with levels employees at foreign auto makers based in the U.S. receive.
“The meeting is going very well, but we still have some issues to work out,” Corker said at one point. He then left the meeting a second time, and repeated that there are still issues to be resolved.
If the compromise bill passed, the House would have to vote on it to send it to the president.
The newfound optimism comes on a day when Republican opposition in the Senate effectively derailed a $14 billion aid package passed by the House Wednesday night.
Top Republicans in the Senate vowed to oppose the House-approved bill without significant changes.
They were led by Minority Leader McConnell who said the bill passed by the House wasn’t nearly strong enough. He insisted on stricter measures to ensure reform at General Motors Corp. (GM), Ford Motor Co. (F) and Chrysler LLC.
The opposition by Republicans raised doubts about whether Democrats could marshal the 60 votes needed to ensure passage of the aid package, and Reid appeared ready to set a vote whether or not he had the votes to pass the House- passed proposal. Reid conceded Thursday night that he did not have the votes to pass the House-passed bill in its original form.
The time frame for delivering a proposal to the president is tight: GM and Chrysler are in danger of running short of cash before the end of the year and Congress is soon entering a holiday recess. The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that GM has hired lawyers and bankers to consider whether to file for bankruptcy protection.
The House-passed bill was forged over five days of negotiations among top presidential aides and the Democratic congressional leadership. But congressional Republicans have complained they were left out of the process and expressed serious opposition.
Several Republican senators assailed the House bill for giving too much authority to the car czar – which would be a presidential designee – to oversee the industry’s restructuring. McConnell indicated he would support Corker’s bill, because of the conditions it creates for the automakers.
Corker said union leaders and car-company executives have expressed openness to those conditions, and the process would have the same effect as a reorganization in bankruptcy court.
DEVILDOG: I am short in one book and hedged in the other and I can tell you from my point of view your one of the most annoying fucking people I have ever seen. You are the type of person who gives short sellers bad names. I would guess that you not trading real money at all or you would shut the fuck up and get back to modeling. And then to disappear when the market rises? What a fucking pussy. Hell I have been posting my trades in the futures all night, where have you been and what is your book right now? Again on fucking vacation. No need to respond to me, just calm the fuck down for awhile and act like a normal, or pretend, fucking human being. Fuck sakes.. Might as well call you LAPDOG as annoying as you are, like a little fucking Pomeranian running around licking the windows and barking at shit.
Why can’t JPM step up and loan GM the money thru TARP – JPM can get reimbursed later with more TARPs or is that Carp?????
Car Assistant Relief Program
Fly,
your post the other day helped me out in regards to holding a position and not completely blowing out of it..i believe we are fucked and have built a 6 figure short postion, this past week really got me scared, but i held on, now i am fucking banking coin!! thanks man!! you too devildog…
why would anyone buy this market anyway?
-325 in the Dow Futures right now and it’s only 8pm Pacific time. I was 100% short going into today and did not sell a thing. I felt sick about it, especially not taking profits in SRS after an up 27% day. But I guess it was the right call.
The open tomorrow should be chaos. Someone get a defibrillator and follow Art Cashin around all day.
a little fucking Pomeranian running around licking the windows and barking at shit.
I thought they’re big dogs.
Bush isn’t going to do shit. Besides, TARP is not authorized in the legislation to give to the auto companies. BTW, the Executive branch of our government is only authorized to spend money approved by Congress. fly, did you graduate high school?
Fly says:
“Look for Bush to give GM TARP funds.”
Even if we gap down tomorrow, most shorts will cover towards the close fearing “The Discarded One” putting the tarp money at work over the weekend.
Full Disclosure: Long SMN, FAZ
Fly, Gap, anyone… what do you think this is likely to do to oil and the dollar?
Hey Dog….New What’s____________ this Month?
Yea Fly, the Dev got you there. Answer the Dev:-)
did you finish high school?
Small Fry Nice Job not taking profits today…
I did..only a 200 point gap down I will re-enter short…400 point gap I wait and see….if it goes down 600 – 700 I may start nibbling long in case the Auto Bailout Rumors re-appear..
DevilDog
Congress granted Bush special war powers that he can do all kinds of shit under the pretense of National Security or some BS.
Anyway it shakes out tomorrow it will be a nail biter and no time to hit the restroom! And someone will be banking some large coin…My bets on “The Fly”
DD – You’re prediction was off by a week, looks like the event is the 12th, not the 19th
yapping, must of got caught very long I suspect. Serves you right you stupid bull fuck. BTW, I’ve stated over and over for retards like you that I’m totally leveraged SHORT since 9/19 and was holding for a minimum of 650 – 580 S&P. I can’t trade your stupid day trade bullshit and I don’t want to. I’ll make $838K on this SWING trade. Now STFU.
Bull Maggot: Oil will get hit in the morning but recover around mid day. Russia MUST and I fucking mean MUST revive the price. Their balls are in a vise right now, I don’t give a fuck what Fly says the actual commodity of oil will be manipulated by these countries. Listen up and listen good, Russia and the dirty Arabs pegged their fucking budgets to $75 oil as a floor. If oil is half that price then they will go under like the homosexuals in California (no offense to my GLBTO friends by the way). This my friend is unacceptable to these countries and thus they will lie cheat and steal to get that price back to their models. Bet on it, however I would buy the commodity via DXO or USO and not the OIH. I personally am long DUG and long DXO.
Here comes the White House with the CARP funds … already issuing statements “evaluating options”
yapping, BTW, I’ve made numerous posts over the last several green days that we would see new lows this month…Idiot. I also stated that when it happened we would have a 1,000+ DOWN DAY. How about tomorrow? Fucking lying moron.
We’re screwed, I said after the 8th.
Yep Buckeye
If Bush shows up with the TARP money it simply means he’s giving the congressional GOP political cover to oppose passage while the rest of the GOP can demonstrate opposition.
It’s the UA fucking W that’s fucking up the works as they don’t want to go down to the same wages offered to workers in foreign firms.
Fuck them and fuck detroit.
gappingandyapping – so with DUG you’re short the oil and gas industry but with DXO you’re long the futures?
Is this your strategy or at type of hedge?
DEVILDOG: You never even post what instrument your trading, what share/contract amounts, nothing. You just come in here every day that we have a DOWN day and say “New Lows Coming” and then spew vomit on the board. Then when we have an UP day you magically disappear like money into Jamie Dimon’s hands, talk about a fucking pussy. And saying you will make $838k on “this trade”, come on your trying just a little too hard to convince us that you really have money in the market. As far as me being caught long, I have been posting my trades almost daily so how could I have been caught long all of the sudden? But I guess you missed that while you were in your cave on vacation. Back to trading, I don’t have time to play with homos from the Yahoo boards like you all night, there is money to be made.
Pick your news….
The futures are telling the story.
How many scams can you shove up an equity investors ass (or a taxpayers) before he/she can take no more?
This is going to be the biggest example of the Wall Street/Washington un-greased fist ever inserted in the homo-hammer machine.
Hold on to your guns, liquor, reverse osmosis water filters, and AKC German Shepard’s.
Oh yeah, and gold dust by the pinch will be our currency standard. Stock certificates will be worthless.
yapping, I said exactly what my trades were and I’m not telling you again so you can make money off them. You want to know then search back in the archives asshole. So fuck off.
Has anyone ever seen one of DevilDog’s trades?
Here are the holdings for the Profunds ETFs, I think I saw a number of you asking today about SRS as well:
https://accounts.profunds.com/etfdata/pfdlyhld.csv
nice one G&Y.
Unless DD is taking about “new” trades, I think he means the ones he bought 9/19. Look up what the inverses traded for that day, thats his basis.
Now, I don’t know or care if he actually bought that day and is still holding, but Im pretty sure thats what he is talking about
j, did you notice that $/YEN broke 90. I guess RISK is back and the carry trade is poof!
bah, didnt read any of the above comments, shouldnt have gotten involved. DD, you are a loudmouth. Congrats on holding your shorts.
Here’s a question for you stock God’s. Let’s say I felt like it might be appropriate to get a little shorter than I currently am. Should I set my shit to buy some inverses on the open or get up and wait and see?
#
#
GLD Today 11:15pm
StreetTracks Gold Trust Platinum is now worth less than Gold for the first time since 1996
Yep Dev
This thing broke when the bailout news was announced. Everything broke down after that announcement except the Euro/US.
The Euro/Yen is below 120. All this points to a horrible stock market again. The only thing that could save things is if the BOJ comes in and intervenes, which looks really unlikely now.
The break under 90 is very bad news.
Gapping: Where are you getting your numbers re: Russia? My sources indicate they only need $30/bbl. [hence my just under 30 target]. The Arabs are a non-issue; they lost control of the oil price a few years ago.
j, the stock market is only horrible if you believe all the corrupt, lying and cheating assholes on wall street, or CNBC or our government and you’re a stupid BULLCOWSHEEPLE and think the market is going to go UP. I think the market is GREAT! It will help get the Revolution started.
Where do you guys find the relative currency comparisons? Would like to check out Euro/US, US/Yen, ect., for myself.
i’ve witnessed DD post his picks in the past, not often, but he does.
SDP comes to mind.
Still love you Gap (in a non gay way)
SRS shareholders:
http://www.shareholderrep.com/bubbles.html
cheers!
Bull,
Get up and watch. Gaps tend to get bought then sold, depending on the size of the gap. Start watching pre-market, especially around 7 a.m. EST. First hour of normal will be critical.
j, I think YEN will go to 85 when my first S&P DOWN target is hit. It will hit 80 on my next DOWN target. I’ve been waiting for the break of 90. About time. The power of bullshit and the SSF are strong, however, the laws of Mother Nature are going to WIN this time.
Oh and keep in mind that the White House or Treasury may make a surprise announcement around 8 a.m. regarding the use of TARP funds in an effort to keep the market from completely melting down.
Wait for the announcement, the initial reaction, then be ready to fade that move, if such an announcement materializes.
BOTD, cheers on SRS & FAZ. I was buying your $55 buttons at a discounted price early this week.
Cheers!
Note: another depressing seasons by the Saints.
Thanks Dogwood… I live on the West Coast but I’ll do my best!
Looks that way, Dev.
But don’t forget that the BOJ can intervene in almost unlimited amounts when it’s buying its own currency. They have done that in the past if their back is to the wall like it was in the 90’s.
Those fucks are staring at the abyss and don’t even seem close to monetizing even though unsterilized intervention.
i got out of my long Euro pos 15 mins ago as I can’t figure if the Euro has legs or not unlike times when there’s tension like this.
Take look at the hourly Euro chart. There are two tops above 1.34 which means some fucknosed bank tried to take out the barrier option at 1.3400 , failed the first time and then went after it again. So there’s someone like the Chinese monetary authority sitting with a large long position at 1.34 in the billions.
West coast? Ugh, sorry, trying to watch the market at 7 will be a killer. Good luck.
Oh BOY I’m long FAZ and it feels great. Can’t wait to bust out the bank robbery clip tomorrow.
I don’t comment on IBC very much, but tonight I need some help from long-time experienced traders to see what I’m missing here or to confirm if fraud has taken place with my broker and/or some MM.
Here’s what went down today.
At about 3:45 I put in a stop order for 300 shares of SRS at $95.05, it was trading at 97-98 at that point in time.
Here is the completed orders:
SELL 100 SRS $95.00 $9,492.94 Xxxxxxx MARGIN 12/11/2008 3:59:52 PM 12/16/2008
SELL 200 SRS $95.00 $18,999.89 Xxxxxxx MARGIN 12/11/2008 3:59:52 PM 12/16/2008
Now, pull up a chart, and please tell me where SRS hit or crossed $95 in order to trigger the sale??
With 8 seconds left it dipped to $95, even though my order was $95.05 – and then closed at $95.62 8 seconds later?
Wouldn’t a 1-day chart show the price action of this move to $95? See, but it doesn’t, it clearly never reaches $95.
What am I missing?
j, I think you were very smart to get out of your EURO long position. I think the past 2-3 days were a false breakout above the trend line. I think it will break down here through the lower trend line. I think all the major currencies are going to devalue along with everything else. DEPRESSION.
El Schorcho
Sounds like you got the El Hose-O by the Market Makers. Hoe Dee Doh!
You are talking about a $95 dollar stock….no one noticed anything under a dollar!
Cha Ching!
a dollar of earnings today is worth more than a dollar of earnings in 1974 or 1982, the last time you had p/e’s of 10 or lower. that’s because of lower inflation, corporate tax rates and lower individual tax rates than 74 or 82. earnings should have a higher valuation now.
El
If there was nothing in between your price s/l and the market you’re basically screwed. They are forced to hit the next available price.
Here’s a suggestion for stops.
Always place an “if hit order execute at next available price”. So pick the stop you want, make sure the market trades there and then if it does they’re obliged to hit the next price that is available. it can cost you more but it’s worth it as you kn w the market trades at the price rather than you being the market .
Charlie – someone already said it, but here it is again, watch out for govt actions, announcements pre market, could really screw around with the action
J,
I am not squibbling over the .05 that I “lost”. I am saying pull up a chart for today and tell me where SRS hit $95?
EL,
This link may help you.
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/nlstrades.aspx?pageno=3&&symbol=SRS&selected=SRS
sorry
that was weird
El Scorcho, Those are dark pool trades on private trading platforms that the Nasdaq approves as valid trades. I’ve seen them done for 100 shares before at the open on a stock and be $2 higher than the stock traded all day on a $55 stock and if you check the daily candle on a monthly chart it is the high of the candle. I’ve had my broker call the Nasdaq to confirm and give me a correspondence to that effect and I’ve called the SEC and they are clueless…I mean DUH! The SEC is nothing but a dog and pony show to make the public think the market is open and clean and they have a fair chance. Most people that trade for a living know that is not true. The SEC is there to provide cover FOR THE BIG DOGS.
Nevermind, just pulled a bar chart up, and it’s clear as fucking day.
I got hosed. Lesson learned.
Awesome post.
JP, DD, J and everyone.
Thank you.
Fly, if they gave that 100k to every single loud-mouth braggart American instead of letting the CEO’s sqirrel it away in their ‘secret pockets of mystery’, wouldn’t the inflation gorilla wade in and make the Greenback less valuable than the post-WWI german Mark? IE. You’d be using that hundred large to buy a single pack of gum. Hell, keep telling everyone, ’cause its going to happen anyway. ‘When the selling by deleveragers dries up, the inflation gorilla will take over’.
http://watch.bnn.ca/trading-day/december-2008/trading-day-december-8-2008/#clip119798
Also, it’s not acceptable to bail out poor people or give them money. It’s fine to give rich people more money, $100,000 to a CEO ain’t shit. It might change a poor person’s life. Why do you think we’re not helping home owners?
There can’t be rich people without poor people and that’s how it works.
Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC (0001386924) 11-10-2008
Holdings
NAME OF ISSUER (X$1000)
ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 12172
TRIAN ACQUISITION I 4720
HICKS ACQUISTION CO 4489
UNITED REFINING ENER 4470
ANHEUSER BUSCH COS I 4412
LIBERTY ACQUISITION 4316
SAPPHIRE INDUSTRIALS 4180
GREY WOLF NC 3819
UST INC 3726
WRIGLEY WM JR CO 3709
NTR ACQUISITION CO 3687
BARR LABORATORIES IN 3629
POWERSHARES QQQ TRUS 3584
SPORTS PROPERTIES AC 3369
AT&T INC 3211
REINSURANCE GROUP OF 3199
ROHM & HAAS CO 3110
ALLIED WORLD ASSURAN 3033
ATLAS ACQUISITION HO 2922
AON CORP 2896
DRS TECHNOLOGIES INC 2763
NORTHWEST AIRLINES 2557
SCHLUMBERGER LTD 2538
FOSTER WHEELER LTD 2409
NEW AMER HIGH INCOME 2366
PROSPECT ACQUISTION 2195
HERCULES INC 2186
ING PRIME RATE TRUST 2077
BPW ACQUISITION CORP 2047
HCC INSURANCE HOLDIN 2020
COMMUNITY HEALTH SYS 1957
J.P. MORGAN CHASE & 1868
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP 1856
FOUNDRY NETWORKS INC 1821
WAL-MART STORES INC 1816
ALTERNATIVE ASSET MA 1807
INTERNATIONAL BUSINE 1777
FORDING CANADIAN COA 1710
PROSHARE ULTRASHORT 1701
THE PANTRY INC 1695
EASTMAN CHEMICAL CO 1693
CASTLEPOINT HOLDINGS 1652
MOLEX INC-CL A 1612
COMPUTER SCIENCES CO 1608
UNION STREET ACQUISI 1604
HANOVER INSURANCE CO 1580
EMCOR GROUP INC 1579
SKECHERS USA INC CL 1570
GREENFIELD ONLINE 1565
WELLPOINT INC 1543
NUVEEN FLOATING RT I 1502
SELECT SECTOR SPDR F 1492
KNOLOGY INC 1446
ANALOG DEVICES 1415
PROSHARES ULTRASHORT 1413
THE NEWS CORP LTD 1405
VAN KAMPEN SENIOR IN 1333
AETNA INC 1313
FIRST TRUST FOUR CRN 1238
AK STEEL HOLDING CO 1236
EATON VANCE SENIOR I 1218
XILINX INC 1217
STEEL DYNAMICS INC 1197
APPLIED BIOSYSTEMS I 1169
ACE LTD NEW 1148
AVNET INC 1118
IMCLONE SYSTEMS 1079
ENSTAR GROUP LTD 1075
ALLEGHANY CORP 1049
ENERGY INFRASTRUCTUR 1015
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1386924/000138692408000019/edgar13f09302008.txt
Dogwood, sorry no market manipulation TARP money tomorrow for the little 3. paulson only gives that money to his buddies and rich elitists. He is going to have to give $80B to madoff’s elite clients. No money for UAW unwashed masses.
‘The firm was the 23rd-largest market maker on Nasdaq in October, handling an average of about 50 million shares a day, exchange data show. It handled orders from online brokers for some of the largest U.S. companies, including General Electric Co. and Citigroup Inc.
The business had been insolvent for years, said Madoff’.
WTF!!!! How do you pull this kind of fraud off? Who was auditing this asshole?
Who else is tryingto pull this shit? If more fraud is discovered, there could be a big drawdown as investors lose all faith in the marketplace.
“It’s over with,” the Senate majority leader, Harry Reid of Nevada, said on the Senate floor, after it was clear that a deal could not be reached. “I dread looking at Wall Street tomorrow. It’s not going to be a pleasant sight.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/12/business/12auto.html?hp
-500 tomorrow.
wow. i watch the stephen colbert xmas special and come home to this! amazing.
can’t say i’m surprised about the senate vote.
also, i think it’s only a matter of time before chrysler is gone completely, with ford and gm merged into one company.
we’re going to have double-digit unemployment percentages in a few months.
If a monument was built in my honor…
…Mt. Rushmore would close…due to poor attendance !
——————–
Stay thirsty my friends !
.
*internet jerk prediction*
gm to trade sub one-dollar tomorrow.
UAW are fucking idiots.
My comments section is the only one on iBC w/o issues. We are switching the other blogs to Disqus, as a result.
Mid-caps are SOL
Anyone staying up all night just for kicks? This is going to be fun.
nah, i’m going to bed in a minute. can’t wait to see the open, though.
J-daddy,
wanted to stay up, but excitement is wearing off. I’ll be up bright and early.
any of you Americans ever sleep or are you all a bunch of automated spam bots?
j,
we’re over-caffeinated stock addicts.
That’s it, I’m off to get some beauty sleep.
4 hours is plenty … right Fly?
FXP insomniacs, courtesy of MS Research:
Under our baseline scenario for [Chinese growth of 7.5% in ]2009, we envisage a significant decline of 6% (in real terms) in real estate investment carried out by the private sector.
However, if real estate investment were to contract by 30% in 2009, the impact would be so big that even the fiscal stimulus package in its current form and size would not be able to make up for the growth shortfall, in our view. We estimate that GDP growth would drop to 5% if this happened. This would be tantamount to an outright hard landing, in our view. Under this bear case scenario, consumption growth would likely be significantly lower than under the baseline scenario, as both employment and income growth would also suffer a setback. This bear case scenario could materialize if property prices decline continuously throughout 2009, as it would likely reinforce a buyers’ strike and destroy the investment appetite of real estate developers on a nationwide scale.
Good luck on Friday.
yrq
Fucking hell.
Have resource stocks been priced for US
money printing?
? The US economy faces a massive capital shortage. Policy makers can address
this shortage in two ways. The government could compete with the private
sector for funds, effectively bidding up real interest rates. Or the Fed could
monetize government debt (i.e. print money), causing the USD to devalue.
? To gauge how much the USD would devalue, we have built a model of the
exchange rate using real interest rates and the budget deficit. Our model
explains 98% of the variation in the exchange rate since 1970, and is very
stable through time. In an extreme scenario, the budget deficit would blow
out to 10% of GDP, and real yields would fall to 0% because of monetization.
This would be consistent with 35% depreciation in the USD.
? Commodities are a natural hedge against this risk. But this does not
necessarily mean that resources stocks will outperform the market. Relative
to the market and commodity prices, resources stocks are 40% overvalued ñ
monetization has already been priced in. For resources stocks to outperform,
commodity prices need to rise by more than 40% ñ that is, USD devaluation
must coincide with a strong recovery in world growth. Until credit markets
are restored to working order, this seems unlikely.
This large firm thinks that comd stocks are 40% too expensive.
Good post, j.
From which firm was this issued?
Rhetorical question:
Could we be looking at a market-closing confluence of events tomorrow?
Time for bed. Thank you, Ambein.
CS, Ants
Kass disagrees with me. Pretty hilarious that he mentions the 3 examples I cited yesterday; Boesky, TYCO, WCOM … and I’ll throw Enron in there. Not nearly as big a story as Enron.
I disagree strongly with him (& Cramer ). The fallout will be contained & short lived. And it is NOT the single biggest financial story of the year. It may be the biggest for gossip financial sensationalistic headlines, but not for Main St, where it counts. Uncovering this white collar scumbucket (no offense to IBC’s beloved scumbucket), is a positive.
==============
Kass: The Madoff Story Is Huge
By Doug Kass
RealMoney Silver Contributor
12/11/2008 8:06 PM EST
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/markets/marketfeatures/10452852.html
This post from Doug Kass’ Trading Diary on RealMoney Silver originally posted at 6:13 p.m.
The story of Bernard Madoff, if the charges of fraud are true, is the single biggest financial story of the year.
It is bigger than WorldCom, bigger than Boesky and bigger than Tyco.
It attacks at the core of investor confidence — because, if true, and this could happen … Investors might think that almost anything imaginable could happen to the money they have entrusted to their fiduciaries.
And it helps to explain why Treasury bill returns are basically at zero.
For more, check out the SEC’s statement on Madoff’s arrest as well as Jim Cramer’s take on the scandal.
Stay tuned.
One more thing about Madoff .. what up, no accountants picked up on the fraud all these years? What a joke. This country is fraudulent from top to bottom and in between. And we have the nerve to tell other nations to clean up their acts. We should just STFU. Leaders must lead quietly or loudly, first, foremost and lastmost, by example.
Juice:
The issue is the cockroach theory, but I tend to side with you a little more when you have time to cool down and think about things. it will I’m sure be a huge story down in Palm Beach.
However no one seems to have uncovered him. The problem was that the pyramid got to be so big he simply couldn’t manage it any more and fessed up.
The interesting thing to see is how the markets manages this debacle today. It will be down of course but to what degree.
people shouldn’t throw away the baby with the bath water. Not everyone in Financial markets is dishonest.
You gotta laugh: You gotta love lawyers.
The Securities and Exchange Commission, alleging “a stunning fraud that appears to be of epic proportions,” said it wants a receiver appointed for the firm.
Defense lawyer Dan Horwitz said Madoff was “a person of integrity” and would fight the charges.‘
Dan thinks his client is innocent. But Bernie confessed!!!
J – regarding Madoff & ponzi schemes, I think Buffett says it best: “When the tide goes out, we’ll see who’s swimming naked.”
Well, the tide has gone out, and will go outer .. no doubt, as you say, more cockroaches will be seen.
The markets may wash out in only a few hours. We could rally Monday. This is all part of the process of launching a large relief rally (best guess for launching point, mid January) that will separate stage one market decline (recognizing & pricing in that we are fucked, from stage two – the reality that we are not gonna get out of this no matter what is done from world powers. Stage 2 will get us down to SPX 500, no sweat.
I’m shocked at all of this!…Ok off for my morning bath and cigar.
El, if the bid hits your stop price, your order will trigger.
Christopher Atayan
The Madoff Scandal: Where Do The “Missing Assets” Sit On The Balance Sheets Of The Major Institutions?
12/12/2008 7:00 AM EST
We are now forced to deal with the alleged Madoff fraud scandal. This is the nature of economic chaos. Just when your digging out from the mess comes something completely out of the blue. I think the key issue to focus on as the facts come out is how the missing assets fit on the balance sheets of the major financial institutions. Are these assets tied to money borrowed from banks and brokerages.Are there any insurance policies that may be forced to pay out here?
The answers to these questions will filter out shortly. The worst case scenario here is that no one in the finacial system took any reserves,someone has a huge exposure and its a full out hit to the balance sheets across the spectrum of those exposed. The Good News is the TARP is out there although politics will play a role in its application herein.
Not to worry NYC. Mayor Bloomberg will just increase taxes and create new ones such as an oxygen tax based upon how long any person stays within the city limits.
Listening to this guy from AutoNation beg on CNBC and make excuses makes me wonder if the buggy whip cos. were begging Rutherford B. Hayes in the same manner.
Only the labor union could create this fiasco during the 2 most important weeks of consumer shopping of the year…FUCKING PIKERS!
Fly.
You change your mind more often than Cramer, in an egregious way.
Of course its the labor union. Fucking arseholes.
In a regular free market where the management fucks up and the shareholders get pissed, the normal course of events is that someone sees value and takeover the firm.
Ask yourselves why there has never been a plethora of people coming in and taking over these firms lock stock and barrel and changing the management. I’m not talking about partial buy ins. I’m talking the about the real deal.
the reason is that no one sees any freaking value in these firms because of ongoing union problems.
Fuck them and let them sink.
What should happen is that someone takeover the plants after Chap 11 and moves them out of Detroit down south where people actually don’t want the union coming in and fucking over their employers.
and there’s fly’s comment about these states going bust… NY, Cal, Detroit. What’s the common thread running through all these states?
Big government, big city , big union taxeating infested old Dem strangleholds. Even GOPer’s like Arnie are basically big government types.
The undertone of this thing is the compete repudiation of big government intervention by markets trying to clear out all their mal-investments.
The only revolution that should go on in the US is a healthy dose of less interventionism at all levels.
A bit on Commercial R/E, fm Flecks site:
1. The combination of lack of financing and expansion in cap rates has led to a 25-30% repricing of CRE. However, there are not many transactions to validate this notion, as sales volume has plummeted over the past 16 months (90%+ declines in many markets).
2. There is very little, if any, capital available for refinancing (this even applies to cash flowing assets). The word “development” has for all intents and purposes been stricken from the language.
3. REIT equity prices have been decimated across all property types, and the implied cap rate at current levels is around 10. This value destruction has occurred in publicly traded non-REIT real estate operating company shares as well. Many REIT’s have refinancing/maturity risk in 2009, a serious concern in a capital-constrained environment. There are certainly superior management teams that have assembled portfolios of high-quality assets, but it will likely be difficult to maintain absolute positive performance given current and prospective macro conditions. On the other hand, fundamental analysis seems to have been of almost no use for some time, so a snapback rally in REIT shares in response to something unanticipated or even tangentially related cannot be ruled out.
4. Fundamentals continue to deteriorate and are expected to continue to do so as economic conditions worsen. Think higher vacancy rates, lower rents, lower asset prices, etc.
5. A large number of opportunity funds and other institutional investors are managing and raising capital to target distressed opportunities (reportedly as much as $300 billion in the aggregate). Levered yield requirements for these funds range from the high teens to in excess of 30%. There isn’t much capital being deployed by these funds currently, as many managers are waiting for lower pricing.
6. Even given point 5 above, many public and corporate pension funds are suffering from the “denominator effect”, i.e., they are already overallocated to real estate due to declines in other asset class holdings. Some intend to stand pat in 2009 with their existing real estate holdings (either direct holdings or LP interests in funds), while others will decrease their net allocation to real estate through engaging in asset sales.
7. Some managers are buying CMBS paper at current yields of between 9% and 14% (depending on the tranche, etc.). Worsening conditions could negatively impact the pricing of these securities, but some smart investors with good track records have been targeting this space. Note that this is the realm of the institutional, not the individual, investor.
Juice – Thanks.
The Fly, of course, is right. “This Madoff scandal is going to leave a serious dent”.
However, this is not just contained to a dozen or so uber-wealthy clients in Palm Beach. It affects many HNWI in the US and abroad and its ramifications will spread, further damaging the reputation of hedge funds, one of the last remaining sources of capital to be found in our financial system.
My chevrolet is leaking oil in the garage…Will the Sham Wow towel clean up messes like this?
Praise be for SKF.
$ and Oil : When market tanks, dollar rallies. thats just he way it is.
When market tanks, oil tanks ($ strength dont help either.) Thats just the way it is. Ill wind and all that …
Will let the market settle for 30/60 mins before deciding what more to do.
Dont forget , still alot of trapped bears at QQQQ 2700. That will be a tuff one to crack. But thats still $1.33 away, lots of room to play the QID.
.
Why was Woodsie banned ?
I was never banned.
Good to hear it. Your page is extremely good, btw.
GM rallying…odd no?
I bought F @ 2.37
Thank you. I had to take the night off from blogging last night due to working late, and because my son had to write a paper on my desktop computer. (My laptop self-destructed, and I’m searching for a replacement).
Sheddie got growd up kids, OMG, i imagined crazy young buck … cool. Lappy : I got VAIOs and they are now worn out after just 2 years. Just ordered a Dell. My wifes one is ancient and still works fine. So may aswell save the $$$$ and go cheap, as they all seem to turn into crap after coupla years.
Why they bounced this market near 3% up off lows in pre? I sense some gayness cometh …
In cash, ready to QID or QLD, whatever.
“the obvious trade is obviously wrong” – my old boss.
Private- there are some great deals on laptops out there right now. It is a good time to be in the market, for laptops, that is. The one that went kaput was a Gateway, and it is 5 years old.
Gateway. wow, thats a blast from the past. Im gonna go desktop. Trust it will last more than 48 months. Im sure youll find a sweet deal out there.
Yeah, theyre bouncing these Qs off trendline supp. lets see what they got.