iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
22,010 Blog Posts

Beware of the Bottomless Pit

I’m covering my Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[HK]] short here, down below $14—despite knowing it will go sub-$10. I just have the craving to raise cash. It makes me feel as if I am stockpiling ammunition. I don’t want to be long or short right now. I just want to take trips to amusement parks, ride the rollercoasters, eat cotton candy and slap strangers with open handed slices of pizza.

My longs have been obliterated, including National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , [[ROM]] and [[UYM]] .

Frankly, I don’t know why I bought National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , considering I hate oil. I guess it was the volatility, coupled with past success in trading the name that made me do it. Nonetheless, it was a dumbass move.

I still own a decent amount of [[DUG]] . Believe me, I am tempted to sell that too. However, as long as I am dying in this NOV, I cannot sell DUG. It’s my oil hedge.

Speaking of oil: My guess, oil is going back below $20. This economy is not better than 2002. So, why should oil be 2.5x as expensive? It doesn’t make any sense.

At the end of the day, we know why oil was at $140 a few months ago: manipulation. Whoever goose stepped oil higher has been eliminated from the game of investing.

So sorry.

God willing we bounce today. Regardless of what happens, I will not buy more stock. The systemic risk is too high to get long, in an egregious way. You cannot risk too much, while Citigroup Inc. [[C]] , Bank of America Corporation [[BAC]] , Morgan Stanley [[MS]] and General Electric Company [[GE]] are on the precipice of the bottomless pit.

UPDATE: I sold out of my [[ROM]] and [[MOS]] positions.

If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter

40 comments

  1. global demand

    You don’t think that there’s still going to be more global demand in oil, and less supply than 2002?
    I wouldn’t rule out 20, but I’m thinking $30.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  2. laser beam

    Fly,
    What’s the PPT indicating at this junkture?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  3. not laughing anymore
    not laughing anymore

    The market is retarded. It is broken. Trading it and thinking there is an edge here and now is unwise. Fuck it, I’m going to the gym and then to the movies. I just know sitting here, looking at these fucking meaningless charts I’m going to go off and do something dumb.

    Good post, Fly.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  4. CAP

    12 months back if someone said the Dow was going to 5000, they would get laughed at. Now if someone expressed the same, there would be nods of approval all around.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  5. Short'Scum'Seller

    Fly,
    Which large cap financials have the biggest short interest for the most pop say we bounce temporarily?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  6. Contrary Indicator
    Contrary Indicator

    the end of the world is getting priced in. Piling into T-Bills, I understand… But 30 year fucking Treasuries??? Are you kidding me??? TBT getting crushed. Berkshire Hathaway trading like it’s going to fucking zero. Unbelievable. This bear market will not end until it’s demolished every presumably “safe” asset. Last domino to fall is the USD/Treasury Bond.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  7. j

    I guess Paulson will have to think about taking the toxic shit out of the balance sheets now. LOL.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  8. SatanicChihuahua

    777 is crucial. If they take that out with conviction, chart chompers say there’s no more support in the “7s”.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  9. ottnott

    How do you take the C treasury shares out of the C balance sheet?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  10. WAVE C

    Is it too late for a do over?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  11. Breaking News

    You will all be castrated at the end of tomorrow’s close. Long or short they will take your money and cut off your fucking ballsack.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  12. Baron de Rothschild
    Baron de Rothschild

    My plan for World domination is proceeding as planned !

    Soon we will see the United States reduced to a Third World Nation…and the industrialized world as we know it will collapse like a house of cards.

    Soon there will be one World government !

    Soon there will be one World Army !

    Soon there will be one World Bank !

    Soon there will be one World currency !

    Soon the colonization of the Earth will be complete !

    Soon the Illuminati will control it ALL…ALL I TELL YOU !!!

    Bwaha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha ! Bwa-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha !!!

    .

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  13. Aris

    actually, wasn’t 768 the s&p low of ’02?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  14. BOOMER

    Ahem. BGU and QLD working for now, relative to my buys.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  15. Vix to 125

    Vix will peak around 125, then come back down to 50, then back up to 90, then it will drop down like crazy to 10.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  16. T MOE

    Covering my AAPL shorts here even though I think it goes to 80

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  17. lol

    what happened to old man trader?

    He must’ve had a heart attack when the market dropped in october… poor old guy.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  18. Contrary Indicator
    Contrary Indicator

    “support levels” “testing the lows” “retests” “trendlines” “bullshit indicators”

    Haven’t you people learned that nobody knows shit???

    Except Roubini, and I’m starting to think he might be a bit too bullish.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  19. T MOE

    VIX to 125?
    Wow I think it goes to 90 then we see a rally

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  20. punyandy

    JPM is taking it on the dome piece.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  21. hmmmm

    TED spreads around 2, look at the fucking ^IRX (3mo TBill) 0.01! Check out the CMBX too, yesterday over 700bps. Anyone have a realtime quote today of the CMBX? Fly you got Bloomberg/Markit?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  22. charlie

    Legging into ERX 3x Energy bull

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  23. Eye No Stuff

    I went outside to get my paper just now. It was silent. I looked around to find my neighborhood littered with bodies. All my neighbors have killed themselves over the plunging value of their IRAs, Roths and 401 Ks. Bodies are everywhere. They’re dropping like Flies.

    Is there a long equity play on human body pickup and disposal?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  24. The Fly

    Fuck it. I’m putting cash to work. Being a pussy is not for me.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  25. Mushroomz

    If we fade to new lows from here you can find me underneath my desk.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  26. T MOE

    VIX tops out at 80 rally on the way

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  27. charlie

    That’s what the fuck I’m talking about Fly.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  28. DEVILDOG

    Gee, who knew?

    Anybody seen GENERATIONAL Bottom or art hogan lately?

    Needless to say I’m looking forward to my F430 delivery and my 3 month sailing adventure. Long live SMART BEARS!

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  29. BOOMER

    Yeah! these 3x leveraged ETFs fucking rock!

    I just bought a new AC unit for my cave! Woot!

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  30. j

    fuck it.

    bought a load of JPM, BAC, MS and C

    If they get me on my stops I’ll lose some money.

    This is stupid.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  31. hmmmm

    ANF could bounce hard, retail bouncing.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  32. T MOE

    Hip Hip DevilDog
    Have fun on your trip. I just got back from the Big Island. Enjoyed spending the big coin I raped from all the longs

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  33. yes 768, 733 spx in april 1997

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  34. charlie

    Should have bought FAS j, or better yet ERX. Although the 3x ETFs are a month old, the data points to ERX outperforming BGU, TNA, and FAS in a rally.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  35. Yogi & Boo Boo

    Any idea how much forced selling there will be tomorrow if C closes 5 today?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  36. josh

    Disclaimer #1: I am 22. I did not know Alaska is part of the US until 5 years ago.

    I went through small cap stocks looking for fundamental values. I noticed that any company with an IPO around a year and a half ago has been turned into a falling knife (no price history/ no dividend / no long term supporters?).

    TAST owns fast food chains. P/S = 0.04. Revenue has been increasing though profits have fallen (what else would you expect?).

    LTUS is a Chinese pharmaceutical company that has increased profits year->year through cost minimization. Revenue has not changed by much. LTUS has already broken out.

    Disclaimer #2: Perhaps these companies make up figures. I do not have the ability to tell.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  37. Yogi & Boo Boo

    … closes under 5 today. UGH

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  38. punyandy

    Fuck this. Buying calls in CHK, M, and AAPL. Viva la economy!

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  39. Scully

    Sold 2.5K of AMAT from 8.25 @ 8.75

    Sold 1K INTC from 12.36 @ 12.86

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  40. Malaka

    Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuc k NOV.

    I thought I am forced to hold this shit steak stock now ? or should I just sell it at a loss ? Any suggestions ?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"