I thought we’d have a follow through rally today. Silly me, I forgot that we were in a fucking black hole, which is sucking civilization and all of its furniture into it. Poof, gone!
I am flattening out my portfolio to put me on a hamster wheel to nowhere. Of course I am loading up on [[FXP]] . I told you last night that I would.
Look you, if you’ve been reading my blog for more than a year, you should know how I think by now. You don’t need me to tell you: “hey asshole, yesterday was a trick, get short.”
Yes it sucks being whipsawed; but it’s part of the game.
In short, I have not sold any longs. I took my 15% cash and just dumped it all into [[FXP]] . Fuck it. And, I will use a little leverage to buy more, if needed.
UPDATE: I sold short 3,000 Transocean Inc. [[RIG]] @ $72, to hedge my National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] position.
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Fly getting totally whipsawed
Fucked!
You are all fucked now! I would be a buyer of AAPL here though.
whoever created FXP should be hung.
Citi looks like it’s becoming a penny stock.
You and everyone else. I expect the Dow to hold 8500 and the SPX 870. Should get a bounce from those levels. This crazy ass market never does what you expect.
Good call on TBT Phil…Lets face it, TARPs is genuis, loan to banks @ 5% for 5 years,borrow from China via 5 yr tnote @ 2.30%…how long till they figure that one out?
Today & Monday will consolidate … there should be a confirmation rally day by mid week, next week. If not, no turkey for me.
TZA says catch me if you can… and down we go from up there we where.
TBT must be bot without hesitation on these dips. I’m buying more if we tap 60. Stops at 58. Whether there is inflation or not, yields will rise on the perceived risk of government credit profile deterioration.
Can some one explain these symbols? I see them on my Ameritrade level II screen. Screen symbol is UYG
mpid
these sit below MPID to which I can only guess the meaning. Further the listed letters below have out of the money bids or no bids at all. Thanks in advance.
Madf
Ubss
Auto
Cdrg
Hdsn
Book
Doms
Wblr
Jptc
Pert
Sufi
Tmbr
Vert
etmm
I think I’ll head over to CAKE for lunch.
Crushed!
As I stated at yesterday’s close. The market was giving you all a gift to get short. GS SPY MCO AAPL they all gave a great opening to go short. Along with the oils. This economy is fucked.
The only thing that may help is for the G20 to anounce some sort of huge global stimulus. Even that may not be enougfh until the job picture improves.
I’m liking HL here, for a nibble.
No more Sinatra by Christmas.
I went long right here. SPYs 88.71. Go.
I bought the uranium play U.To the other week as it had been beaten down to 5 bucks. Amusingly it’s the energy play that’s put on 40% in two weeks.
I’m thinking of becoming a market maker in FXP, these fucking option premiums are un-real.. Just do buy-writes and get rich
Moe
Curious why do you hate GS so much?
The instant fly posts “tricked”, the market goes up.
Amazing. He calls the turn again.
Senor Fly – please keep us informed on FXP – it looks good except the Chinese market has dropped a lot already. Bernanke said months ago that the “subprime” problemo would be “contained”. He and Paulson and all of ’em only know one thing – load the helicopter and pour the money out!
Canada sucks — here’s something on gold that may be of use .. either to trade it or avoid it
Kevin Depew
10:36:02 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Gold
The relationship of gold to the dollar is important in either the bullish or bearish case. For example, earlier I posted the long-term quarterly chart of the U.S. Dollar Index Spot showing a TD-Sequential Buy Setup. Shorter time frames suggest the dollar should move lower, but lower within the context of the longer-term dollar bull market that we could be about to initiate later in 2009.
Gold is positioned similarly. Below is the quarterly chart of Gold Spot.
Gold Quarterly
CLICK HERE TO ENLARGE
Note the TD-Sequential sell signal from Q2 2008, and confirming price flip.
Meanwhile, on the monthly chart a TD-Sequential sell signal registered in January of last year, and we now are price bar 7 of a potential TD-Sequential Buy Setup 9. In order to confirm the buy setup, prices would, in either December or January, make a low that exceeds the 682.41 low.
On the weekly chart we are 4-5 bars minimum away from a potential buy setup or buy countdown. The daily is on bar 5 of potential 9 Buy Setup.
https://admin.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Aug2007/File/goldquarterlg.jpg
So, bottom line, there is some accumulating evidence that we may be nearing a point where gold could rally into first half of 2009. After that, however, similar to the dollar and equities, I expect the second half of 2009 to yield (literally) to the longer-term deflationary trend that is appearing. That means a temporary reprieve for the lower equities, lower commodities, higher dollar and higher bond prices we have seen for most of this year.
Fly you never put on any leverage even when you say you might. You’re not going to do it…
We will rally again this afternoon. We may not close green, but we will not down 3%.
This dip is to be bought.
If I’m wrong, I’m sure the bugfuckers will come out of the woodwork to remind me.
Leverage is so 2007.
I agree with Wood, everyone say a prayer.
I worked for GS… not so fun
Well, yesterday’s rally was overextended by about 300 points, so bulls are still okay here. but then again, i’m surprised bulls couldn’t get a rally going after oil drops back to 58.
Puked at 88.32 SPY. That sucked. I’m sick of this market.
We are watching you Wood, closely.
I put leverage on all the time.
Remember when my face was being ripped off in March?
At the highs, I was levered out short, max.
I took an early 2% drubbing and now I am flat. The power of the inverses shall protect me from Woodshedder and his band of banjo playing bulls.
If anyone here wants to hedge but has little money left and does not mind playing poker with David Blane check out TZA. But don’t say I didn’t warn you.
Wood I agree, the institutions were buying Spyders yesterday like mad. They won’t stop here.
MPID = Market Participant Identifier
http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/trading/mpidListing.php?ib_entity=llc
This will help put a name to the symbols of those taking your money.
The other signal to me that TBT is the place to be: market is getting raped by goats but gold is up. We haven’t seen that combination in some time. Again, runaway debt issuance is starting to get subtely refelcted in the market. TLT has just put in a triple top and is testing the 50-day (perfect entry point). The reason I’m going with TBT is that TLT is currently unavailable for shorting.
Good luck.
Gio – the market needs oil to rally to rise … low oil = deflation/no growth
I think thats what the G20 shrimpfest is gonna be about this weekend . they need the USD & JPY lower, so emerging market country economies can reliquify .. they’re mostly dependent on higher commodity prices .. now , they’re all going broke
without growth abroad, equity prices will sink across the board
more bad news for a poor open monday am but i think that can be bought
if not, have your stops .. this market is a motherfucker
Sold 2.5K MS from 11.60 @ 12.15…scalping around..while I wait to spend it all @ JCP’s ‘door busters’ 3-10pm shit sale.
EB
Invariably, when you start with the statements “I am on fire”, or “I can’t miss”…that’s when I step in to punch off your mustache.
Mr Market
I agree with Juice…Oil needs to rally. We should all go out and buy Hummers (the SUV…not the service)…that way, we save GM, and send oil higher.
Jimmy
OMFG, Who cars about the market! I C a EDIT button!
gappingandyapping: way to bite off my yesterdays pick… Ride the wave
some charts from mish
Its not working.
Mr. Market. indeed. Lost 1.2% today. Argh. Up 8.8% for month now.
I bet the market whipsaws its way back to positive territory at the close. Similar day to yesterday.
Lots of fuckery on FXP.
We will close at the lows today. Do not be tricked.
MS, GS, and C holes are too great for the market to deal with on a Friday afternoon.
Hedge up or die.
Ayy! I needs some viagra ovah heah!
Jeffrey Cooper
11:46:07 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Trying Not to Get Upside Down
We are at/near my lower SPY channel so we may bounce off the undercut of the key S&P 882 level but it may be a little too early for a rally, maybe in the afternoon.
Whether we consolidate, stabilize, or come in further to the 87ish SPY level first is the question. Then we will see an afternoon rally into G-20.
But 87 looks like solid SPY support.
https://admin.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_Aug2007/File/Theale/snapshot-99.png
For the time being, and for the short term until proven otherwise, my posture is more of buying pullbacks than of shorting rallies, so that I don’t get upside down.
Gold is starting to look real interesting here. I just bought some DGP and will look to add on any pullback.
Old people are getting the HOMO HAMMER of death in SRZ.
the fucking banks do not fuel this rally … therefore hello again DOW 8254 …
Its gonna be tough to rally with JPM, the USA’s last man standing bank, taking it from behind.
Sliding along the top of the 10-day downtrend line on low volume. If we bust that, anything goes.
Dennis Kneale is a bull jinx.
Watch the 1:00pm tape. Gonna be a repeat of yesterday. We are setting up for it now.
You would think I would have learned by now not to bet against the Fly…
I am siding with ‘Shed on this one: this decline will not hold, we close well off the lows
We will rally again this afternoon. We may not close green, but we will not down 3%.
This dip is to be bought.
If I’m wrong, I’m sure the bugfuckers will come out of the woodwork to remind me.
You’re not. It would’ve been far worse had we not pulled back.
You know that, of course.
_________
i will shoot myself if we repeat yesterday….or i will go drown myself in the cardiff lagoon…
Watch this video on Tims blog http://slopeofhope.com/2008/11/14/ship_of_fools.htm
Can someone get me the names of these idiots on the videos and their email addresses so that I can email this video to poke fun at them. I recognize Ben Stein. Can Ben Stein be nominated for a Lifetime Asshat Achievement Award ?
Aug 2007 -‘credit crunch is way overblown. Financials are being given away their are so cheap. Subprime is a tiny problem.’ – Ben Stein. Can someone arrest this asshat ?
sell that fxp and reload back at 60 again
Pullback with low volume might be “healthy”…like fried bacon…
Hey Fly, why are you blocking 80/20?
Comments about PHP lameness?
Peter Schiff has a newer time machine than you FLY…better upgrade to the ’09 model…
80/20 was only trying to help you.
Certainly nothing malicious. Jeez
80/20 was 20% so so and 80% blah blah
no IBC for u
That last CAP comment about 80/20 is not me
I imagine the fact that 80/20 implied FLY needed help was grounds for dismissal…
FLY,
Ever consider requiring a log in to your site…?
Eliminate imposters, etc…etc…
Any thoughts on LVS, seems to big an organization to fail and a safe rout to doubling your money in the low 6 range over the next 6 months
If you side with Wood,
Then you should,
Trust your gut,
And get in the RUT.
(@462-ish, Ben)
No, men?
Phuckafish, then.
________
Every single time I go for big dick gains I get tapped in the ass. A 50% pullback is healthy but this just feels weird the way it’s going down.
10 year on the SPX has 800 as being solid foundation to build on….we break that and…well…gold, guns and ghetto…
Nope, it was me (80/20), don’t know why that attrib inserted itself.
Seriously arbitrary and groundless action against me, no?
+5 karma or Jake
+5 karma for Phil’s TBT idea.
Back to India…
Fly have you ordered your Hussein Obama gold coins and display plates yet?
Fly have you ordered your Hussein Obama gold coins and display plates yet?
ROFLMAO!!
Holy shit, that’s excellent. I’m actually looking for the Gate on NW 17th Street, made out of BHO’s arm’s holding big curved scimitars.
_______