Oil and gas companies will start to hemorrhage cash, then fold. How can tar sand companies, like Suncor Energy Inc. (USA) [[SU]] , stay in business, when it costs more to extract oil than sell it?
Answer: they can’t.
Just like we saw in the late 90’s, when oil was $10 per barrel, oil/gas companies will begin to close up shop, at an alarming rate. No one is drilling for oil. With oil tanking on a daily basis, you have to be out of your fucking mind to lease a rig from National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] or Transocean Inc. [[RIG]] . Plus, how much did it cost RIG and NOV to produce those rigs, when steel was 200% higher?
People, the bottom has dropped out of the oil space. In size, I am long massive amounts of [[DUG]] and short an absurd amount of Petrohawk Energy Corporation [[HK]] .
All commodity related names will get the stuffing kicked out of them, but none more than oil. Many, many names will go all the way to zero. You heard it here first.
As you can see, I am constantly adapting to the market. To some of you newer types, my style, at times, may appear to be insane. However, just know, my goal is to debank the market of its coin and keep it for myself.
At the present, I am 80% short, 10% long and 10% cash. My guess, we’re coming for Art Hogan and his asinine bottom call, at 7,700—sometime soon.
Trade accordingly.
NOTE: For the day, I was up more than 10%, putting my year to date gains over 75%, yet another new high.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
SKF, I think I love you.
Holy Shit! 75%!!! In this fucked up market of faggotry?
The Fly is definitely God.
(Everyone chime in)
The Fly is God…
Fly portfolio value start of year $1, now $1.75
Congrats!
TBT and DBC for the long run.
Special breaking!
The Fly announced newest “tabbed” blogger!
Developing…
____
Nice job Senor Petey.
Have a garbage pail fire and cook some smores for Steve and your neighbors tonight.
FUCKING A WHERE’S THE EDIT FUNCTION ON THIS FUCKER!??
“Announces”
_______
Fly, get yourself a new car (whatever your pleasure, I’m a Mercedes man myself) and vanity license: “LOL-YR-401K”. Naturally, you’ll be pelted with eggs by the “new poor”, so keep the windows rolled up.
10% cash? Pussy
Isn’t Tim Knight long DIG?
Revenge is a dish best served cold.
SDS beat FXP today. There is an ETF for short oil/gas co.s. I started to add some SDS or FXP near the close, but decided no – another bounce up is probably a few days away.
75% ain’t shit. I am up 125% as of today. Of course with my assenine trading, I will probably only be up 70% tomorrow.
I feel so inferior and cowardly in comparison. Made 1% today and up 7.8% on the month so far. Back to 100% cash because I’m a coward.
Shorty:
Yeah but you manage a bullshit 5 figure discount house account.
Fly,
How does the increase in volume affect the price on a double inverse ETF (ie FXP)? Would it dampen movements?
Up 2.3% because like a DOUCHE I covered PFG and HK YESTERDAY!!!
MERDE ALORS!!!!!!
No – Tim jumped on the FXP train and has FXI puts. Think he’s out of DIG
Tim went long DUG 2 Days ago..
FUCK.
At least I killed the other Tim, Seymour that is.
TIM had a stop loss at $ 30
I’m a 100% cash coward because I am skeptical and cynical about the market’s screw everyone ways. I wouldn’t be surprised the market goes into screw the shorts phase again soon.
However this time I will not get cute and buy stocks because I think they are cheap. Cheap means nothing if we go into a depression next year.
“The Fly” chuckles at Tim’s feeble attempts to usurp my blogging dominance.
Oh look Phil, the FLY is writing about all the companies you have been nibbling at.
Just read this:
Even high-grade companies are paying junk-like yields to sell debt. Tobacco company Altria Group (MO.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), for example, paid coupons of 9.95 percent to sell 30-year debt last week, or a yield of 600 basis points more than Treasuries. Historically, junk bond yields averaged about 450 basis points over Treasuries.
“We’re not going back to where we were in terms of many of the spreads levels, the liquidity that’s accessible,” Putnam Investments portfolio manager Bill Kohli said on a conference call on Tuesday. “Especially in the finance industry, people are going to have to operate without the same kind of easy access to capital they’ve had before.”
Single-A rated AT&T Inc(T.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) on Wednesday launched a $1.5 billion five-year debt sale with expected yields of about 437.5 basis points over Treasuries, according to IFR, a Thomson Reuters publication.
The company sold similar maturity debt in May at just 168 basis points more than Treasuries.
The credit markets are still closed. I’m with FLY, we are going to see a massive amount of chapter 11 filings before year end.
Well, today was fucking fun. Now I’m going to take part in a more enjoyable endeavor. I’m going to run a cheese grater across my face. I’ll suffer less pain than from the bullshit I saw on my screens when the mkt was open.
Fuck George Bush. Fuck the bald headed stutterer who calls himself Treasury Secretary. These clowns need to fry.
Oh no! DevilDog may be proven correct!
EYE NO, Cheer up. Check out GW’s latest post. It will make the cheese grater feel lovely.
Devildog is in read only status right now, banned from posting.
Fly – wrong. The price of gas has come down so fucking fast that we aren’t seeing the implications yet. Give it another week or two. Gas consumption is going to come roaring back.
Hell, American families will substitute that cheap gas shit for milk. They’ll bathe in it. They’ll wash their fucking cars in gas. They’ll turn the gas sprinkers on and allow their children to cool off in the shit on a cold winter’s day. Consumption will go through the fucking roof. By the second week of December, we’ll be seeing those peak theory assholes singing on CNBC again.
Watch and learn.
Wrong asshole!!!
There is no credit for cars. People are walking or using horses to get to work.
Watch and learn.
Bankrupt
http://www.forbes.com/business/2008/11/12/blizseth-yellowstone-club-biz-billies-cx_af_1112yellowstone.html
Bill Gates & Dan Quayle will need a new place to ski. I live right buy the “Club” It’s snowing right now. Fly you should buy some property here. They need the funds to start the lifts. Plus you could get a great deal.
Obama is a fucking IDIOT ! He sends MORONS who know NOTHING about FINANCE and BANKING to an important economic summit. WHAT THE FUCK IS THIS MAN THINKING?
Nov. 12 (Bloomberg) — President-elect Barack Obama named former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and former Republican Representative Jim Leach as his emissaries at the international economic summit in Washington.
Eye Stuff… aint shit roarin back….little Ipod Joey and Blackberry Bob, gonna be lookin for work….Jobs create 45% percent of fuel demand.
Boone Pickens is looks like Timothy Leary about now. Another famous Tim.
Side Note: Speaking of Fast Money…Pete Nagarain[sic] is sporting a new haircut that just screams “I’m losing my ass”
Wrong again Fly. Gas is so cheap they’ll bathe their horses in the shit. They’ll spike the water with it, kill the horses, buy new horses, and use more gas in the process. Gas will flow in the streets. They’ll use the shit for shampoo. They’ll drain all the lakes and replace the water with gas.
Consumption will rise.
thank god for my SMN
my FCX got whacked…they yield like 9% now. good thing i wrote the 35 calls too.
Hey FLY, dont forget about OBAMANOMICS, when he taxes the oil and gas companies for making “too much money”
hahahaha
if it wasnt my own country, it would be funny
intc just added fuel to the fire
CROX @ 1.38 in the AH. Last year at this time I believe it was 72.
The world is toast.
Plenty of NDX stocks getting hit in the AH.
does the ppt have a screen to tell us which co.’s have huge debt loads, vs. Those that have lots of cash, which will ensure that they emerge from this with greater market share?
That would be worth paying for.
Anyone think the INTC news leaked early today and is well baked in?
PS AAPL 87.77 as I type
Carter Worth says its baked in
its baked in
its baked in
its baked in
Fly,
I think it’s funny you banned Devildog…in honour (sic) of that event here a medical device that might help him:
http://www.abbeymoormedical.com/
No dickwad, they need politicians in an economic summit to keep foreign nations sending us money instead of rerouting it to building domestic markets (SEE: China), or we’re very well assreamed.
Madeleine Albright raised a few hundred million for an emerging markets hedge fund a few months prior to the tippy top of the market. Not sure if it is still active.
http://www.slate.com/id/2158031/
the more I read you FLY the more convinced i become your full of shite.
SU doesn’y hedge any production when oil was 125 plus? are freaking for real?
The Fly is the Godfather.
Damn Fly,
you gonna make me buy Swiss francs and shit.
Fuck off you two. If you have visited this site with any regularity you would have seen that fucker Fly almost does everything in r/t. I’m surprised he’s not up over 100% already as he’s been short most of the time this year.
Assholes.
Great job Fly, thanks for saving many of us from getting long this pos market.
I bought heating oil in August at an outragous price thinking it would keep going up because those asshats at GS said $220 oil. What happens to all the transportation companies that did the same stupid thing I did. Short transports?
Dipshits like calling you out should be the ones that are banned. They are egregious fucktarded asshats. The Fly does everything in real time, and these morons don’t get it. This dipshit thinks we are retarded? Learn how to read, moron.
And congrats, The Fly.
this market isn’t even funny any longer. i just want to buy guns and move my feeble possessions into a cave.
Ready To Go Right Now – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UbxvCpSBJrk
Ban the idiot who questions our great one.
Once again Q4 has terrible taste in music….bling bling bullshit wanna be gangsta
Karen Tso looks exceedingly delicious today. I swear, the more it looks like it’s the end of the world, the happier she looks. She’s either heavily short or looking towards being naked on the back of my horse. Since I don’t believe she’s allowed to play the market, it must be the latter.
I can believe he is up 75%. My account jumped a net 17% today. I rode BGZ to 11%, bailed, then jumped into FXP while it was still at 1%.
For you “the market is due for a rally because it is so oversold” types: financials…still not oversold, including GS; commodities…still not oversold; most everything…still not oversold.
What IS oversold right now…GOOG and AAPL. A nice drop at the open tomorrow on these two would be the ideal setup for good gains to the long side.
If the bank of England cuts rates to zero you are going to see some fucked up shit going on. Fuck might as well pimp out the queen and pawn her fucking jewels.
On another thought: Could it really be possible that our entire fucking world was levered to some fucking hybrid subprime products? Hell to the fucking no I say. While I am bearish as shit at the moment I don’t believe this could possibly be fucking rational and true. I also believe that soon one of Barack Obama’s family (Arabs) will soon buy up one of our giant banking institutions, (C). These dirty fucks need somewhere to put all that oil money. And don’t give me that “oh they are not making money right now”. Just two years ago none of you had ever seen $75 oil and by my calculations they didn’t just build that city of gold in the desert. A group of 5 sheiks gets together and they can pay cash for C at this valuation. Again don’t be fooled, this WILL happen at these levels. UYG at $6.50 is a screaming prostitute asking to be violated by the local crackheads. If you are disciplined and want to stash 10k buy it and look back in 6 months to a year. I mean what the fuck are you going to do with it anyway, buy T-Bills? LOL.
“What IS oversold right now…GOOG and AAPL. A nice drop at the open tomorrow on these two would be the ideal setup for good gains to the long side.”
cap of 91.44B for goog, not yet oversold in the short term
“A group of 5 sheiks gets together and they can pay cash for C at this valuation. Again don’t be fooled, this WILL happen at these levels.”
No shit. This one sheik spent $5 billion of his own money to buy a stake in Barclays. His family is thought to be worth in excess of $600 billion.
Q4– was that Rog from “Good Times?”
_______
Now things are starting to make sense!
_______
OK lets have a poll.
In the short term we will
BREAK THE LOWS
TEST THE LOWS
Respond below with one or the other.
Now that I’m a perfect 4 for 4 on market calls on this site. Link – http://www.ibankcoin.com/flyblog/index.php/2008/11/07/let-the-automakers-die/#comment-60763
I might as well roll the dice and do another one. I think the market re-tests and has a short-term bottom tomorrow. November 15th is the redemption date for most hedge-funds, I now believe most hedgefunds have gone to cash and done their puke selling by now (look at the datapoint of T. Boone Pickens in cash on my site).
So there will be a tradeable rally starting this Friday after a low tomorrow (Thursday). All I need is Jake to call me an idiot again, and this prediction will be proven correct for FIVE perfect calls in a row.
fly:
I agree that there is no short term bottom in oil and other commodities. However, I do believe that the mountains of cash our govt is printing will lead to massive inflation and commodities at all time highs in 2-5 years. So my question to you is, is the commodity sector a good place for people under 40 to start to build a large position in?
BREAK THE LOWS
Sticking with my thesis – we go down until they intervene in the Yen. Looks like we’ll bust the lows before that happens.
EB, you are a fucking massively deranged idiot.
(There, now this better work)
_________
Fly, congrats on the new a/c highs.
Timbo Slope has several similar trades as you. DUG FXP EEV SDS SDP , not to mention being short an egregious quantity of equities & puts. He’s knocking the cover off the ball day after day after day.
The two of you are the best on the internets, by far. Word up.
R-E-S-P-E-C-T !!!
BREAK THE LOWS.
You notice how we have been slowly melting downward. We will break the lows because this thing has been simply falling with low volume. The day it breaks the lows is when volume comes back, and that is when it will be time to start undoing your short positions going to cash.
BTW, to those on the FXP train… That reverse ETF is the worst of the bunch. Take a look at EEV and SKF. Anyway, what is your exit strategy? I am not looking at price, because I don’t believe you can look at charts on these and expect to figure anything out. What I want to look at are percentage moves. I believe tomorrow may be a big day with a 20%+ move.
A shoutout for Mitch Mitchell … a fabulous drummer!
Yea Juice,
It you have to respect the flymeister.
Pound for pound though he isn’t as good as I was at 32:-) Stock monkeys don’t trade like old FX traders when you had to turn your view and position in few hours.
Amyways everyone is super bearish again which means we’ll rally pretty soon.
there’s hardly anyone on this board who isn’t bearish which is a good thing to set up another rally.
Now that I’m a perfect 4 for 4 on market calls on this site.
And because of that, we’ve all chipped in to buy you this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JgTMCAxXYXs&feature=related
What kind of name is Mitch Mitchell? That is as bad as Sirhan Sirhan and Boutros Boutros Gali.
Who has other examples of people with the same first and last names?
Thunderpup,
Please, let’s put an end to the featuring of this very disturbing (and likely, disturbed) woman.
_________
Market is fucked. I went to bidness school with a double first name guy. Shit you not. Same first as last. Apparently, his parents were freakish hippies.
He, on the other hand, was as sober as a judge. Still works for Merrill.
In Australia now, maybe.
________
Please, let’s put an end to the featuring of this very disturbing (and likely, disturbed) woman.
🙁 I’ll try.
nice job eb
We smash through the previous lows. Hank and Benny are throwing the equities markets under the bus as cover for monetary expansion aka bailouts.
I know of him jake.
He’s an aussie, me thinks, right?
BTW,
grats, fly
-anon
you shorts will have a little more fun…then it will be off with your eyebrows in a spectacular way.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/3448664/Abandon-all-hope-once-you-enter-deflation.html
“This could easily go the way of Japan. It is true that Bank of England has moved faster, but Japan was a local bubble. This time it is the ‘great unwind’ on a global scale with leverage spaghetti everywhere,” he said.
thats great Jake and I grew up with a kid named Phil Cocks (no joke,exact spelling)…his parents were just f’ing out of touch…I hear he’s a meteorogist.
Muhammad Muhammad Muhammad
First, middle and last name
I agree with EB’s market call
Guys, I have no clue just like every one else on my market calls, but it sure is fun nailing the roulette wheel 4 times in a row…. now gunning for number 5.
If you buy the market based on this, you deserve to lose your house, family, and friends. Oh well, I’m not good at this sarcastic cynical humor stuff like THE FLY.
Oh crap. Now people are believing my calls, which dooms them to failure. The previous 4 calls were made fun of by everyone on here.
He’s an aussie, me thinks, right?
No, he may have married an Ozzie though.
He’s from New England, maybe Vermont?
Same first and last name as the first name of one of the Trading Places old dudes.
Hilarious, poor fucker.
_______
Market_is_fucked –
FXP is lagging behind for no good reason. It typically keeps pace with EEV, so be patient and it will catch up big time. Getting on board now is guaranteed coin.
If you can’t wait, then get some ERY Energy Bear 3X shares for more disgusting gains as oil gets its head ripped off and spine shit down – however this iETF is much riskier.
Lastly regarding an exit strategy. This market is far too fucktarded and volatile for an exit strategy. Best advice is to sell the rips, buy the dips, be patient, reduce your exposure, and stay nimble. When one of my positions skyrockets I sell it, sweep some of the profits into my cash account, and re enter on a dip.
I am still making fun of you EB.
No fear.
_______
“This is an Obama recession, might turn into a depression. He hasn’t done anything yet, but his ideas are killing the economy.”
FXP playing catch up after hours. Up over 5 last I checked.
Obama will be the biggest money making venture Rush, Hannity and Fox news will ever see. They all sat on their hands offering no candidate support whatsoever during the primaries. Rush will see none of the “DEPRESSION” the rest of us do.
Don’t worry about your losses. The fucking world is coming to an end. Eye no.
FXP not catching up. Take a look at EEV AH, it was up more percentage wise than FXP.
The reason FXP has lagged is thanks to the Chinese bailout plan. I suppose we need to hope that people give up on that idea and punish the market.
I am gonna hold onto my FXP for massive coin as the market slices through the October 10 lows.
Also shorting OMX to 0. That piece of shit should be gone by Christmas.
I also strongly believe the REITS are about to all get taken out and shot. My brother in law’s brother in law (what does that make me, brother-in-law once removed? or Second Brother-in-law?) is an executive at GGP. Turkey Day should be interesting this year…
Its kind of ironic that Ben Bernanke is an expert on the Great Depression.
Knew a guy named Richard Richards back in the day.
They called him Double Dick.
True story.
CAP, Break the lows.
Gapping, I touched that UYG thingie a couple of times and all I got for my money was a funny rash.
Up 10%
Show some respect
Knew a guy named Richard Richards back in the day.
They called him Double Dick.
True story.
Beat you… knew a guy named Richard Head.
a true story
zxv
http://www.raptureready.com/rap16.html
Ben Dover
Master Bates
C printing in the single digits… wow
I am embarrased to tell you guys this but my birthnam name is
Gerry Kickfukd McButtseks
true story.
I changed my first name to Sven. Couldn’t stand Gerry.
At least I stopped out of my longs today, sans BOOM.
Hong Kong down 7-8%. Karen Tso showing some nice skin.
Covered a few of my shorts today on GS, SPY, AXP. Probably left some money on the table. Didn’t want to get too greedy.
I am still holding shorts on SPY, GS, COF, MBI, MCO, AAPL, AXP
And holding inverse ETF’s SMN, FXP
Loving every minute of this panic.
S&P to 700
Boomer/Sven … ROFLMAO … Thanks
There was a baseball player named Roger Schmuck… he pulled a hammy and his team won…..headline in the paper …”Royals Win With Schmuck Out” We also had a 1st baseman Pete LaCock…who like Babe Ruth went into the candy bidness with “The Pete LaCock Sucker”.
Who the hell is Karen Tso?
Who the hell is Karen Tso?
http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/Sections/Video/CNBC_Live/player/cnbc_live.html?v=101
She’ll be coming up shortly. Why do you think we bottom tomorrow? I’m getting spooked byy all the bears.
China retail sales up by 22%. You FXP junkies need to watch out.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601089&sid=abM29KiepBow&refer=china
EB, not bad with past 4 calls.
Im curious to hear Num 5.
Fly is still GOD though.
Ed, you need to learn how to read. I posted number 5 above.
cap of 91.44B for goog, not yet oversold in the short term
What, pray tell, does a company’s market cap have to do with it’s stock being technically oversold or not??
I don’t care if the market cap is 9B or 900B, it’s oversold.
I started this gangsta shit. And this the mother fucking thanks I get?
There is now a fucking big ass gang of short sellers right now… WTF
you all suck, so kiss my ass and go to hell…
Fuckers!
“The Bible warns us that the day will come when Israel is standing by itself against its enemies. For decades, prophecy scholars have wondered what will cause America to become isolated from Israel. Some have wondered if it will be a Russian nuclear attack, while others have thought it might be the impact of the rapture. We can now add the possibility of political change to the list”
They forgot, because america got taken over by another country, had a massive uprising of riots and was no longer involved in anything, or america got fucken nuked and destroyed, so there was no other countries left to support.
Probably a couple of timid rallies and then a smash through the lows just to freak everyone out.
I haven’t posted anything recently because nothing has changed my thesis of Dow to 6500 yet.