iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,441 Blog Posts

Not Baked In

The 50 basis point cut by the lunatics at the Federal Reserve is daring inflation to come back. The Fed is spitting in the face of those who drill for oil or make potash.

If history has taught us anything, it is that they (The Fed) are always wrong.

I am not an inflation hawk. As a point in fact, I chuckle, not laugh, at those who think the U.S. is in some sort of weird inflation era.

Wrong.

But, at the same time, the deflation ghouls have overshot to the downside, via pecking away at commodities and their related equities.

So, into this orgy of free money, I want to stay long the names that have been cast aside by margin players, at least for awhile.

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. [[CF]] , The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) [[POT]] , Agrium Inc. (USA) [[AGU]] , National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , Transocean Inc. [[RIG]] and Arch Coal, Inc. [[ACI]] all look attractive.

Following an 11% day, don’t be stupid and buy big here. Wait for a pullback, as much as 5%, then consider taking a position.

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112 comments

  1. Anton Cigur

    Fly, are you still buying UYM here?

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  2. DannyBoy

    Fly:
    The fed is trying to make $ cheap and a ton of assets have been beaten up real bad. What do you think if BX and FIG?

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  3. sniper6

    fucking crybabies in this market. Fed shouldn’t have cut shit. Shoulda raised 50 bp

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  4. The Fly

    I am not buying anything here. Too crazy. But, I am not selling either.

    I’m just watching shit, while throwing darts at my plasma.

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  5. It is time for some consolidation – a pullback – a rest – a pause – all those cliche`s – time to take’em back down boys!

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  6. stoopid asshat imbecile investor
    stoopid asshat imbecile investor

    So you’re staying long, but expecting a pullback? Again, I’m confused. If you think there will be a 5% pullback, why not just get out here?

    Still don’t get how that time machine of yours works.

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  7. globalx124

    If Monetizing @ 17% + annually is Not Inflationary, what is/gives??

    The “Unwind” of the Global $600+ T OTC Derivatives nightmare (The Beast) continues out of control regardless of futile attempts by the “Cartel”.

    Systemic destruction!!

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  8. charlie

    Bought small chunks of UYM, EEM, and FSLR. Out of thopse FSLR will be the one I add the most to over the next few days.

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  9. GW

    Inflation Chuckles will come for you soon. Just like in early 01-02 we had a deflationary effect due to a mild recession, but then inflation came back.

    It will come back again. Write it down.

    $4 trillion in less than two years will fuck us over down the road.

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  10. ARCH

    thanks fly,

    sold my possistion of NOV @ 28.50 earlier and just sold my possistion of UYG prior to fed announcement banked a small amount of coin

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  11. Anton Cigur

    Thx, Fly. If it’s too crazy for you, it’s time for a sandwich.

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  12. The Fly

    We’re going higher is my gut call.

    But I am fully invested, with 20% in cash for a quick inverse ETF position, if needed.

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  13. Anton Cigur

    Does the PPT occasionally shoot sparks and emit smoke like Bob Marley on days like this?

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  14. Paradigm Shift

    The pain trade would be another last hour moon shot.

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  15. Sir Douchebag

    Fed creating inflation…

    Maybe. People are still getting fired and now, on top of it, the consumer is being bitch-slapped with higher oil prices.

    Deflation was pretty good for Joe-Six Pack. So what — now people are going to buy houses, finance a new car?

    Rate cuts create little rallies to sell into — nothing more.

    If creating inflation could stimulate an economy, Zimbabwe would be the greatest country in the world…

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  16. The Fly

    Everyone on this thread is a pussy. I just wanted you all to know that.

    Off for a Monster.

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  17. Yogi & Boo Boo

    Anton +10 on the sparks, smoke and shit.

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  18. The Fly

    NOV lagging behind RIG big time.

    NOV is a fucking buy.

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  19. Anton Cigur

    Well, it IS your thread, cupcake.

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  20. The Fly

    PPT spitting out its first Strong Buy rating on an oil: TOT

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  21. Greekmofo

    I have banked serious coin on nov, especialy mos and a couple of etfs. Im thinking about bouncing on these bitches but can someone f’ing tell why I should stay long pleaaaaaase

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  22. T MOE

    Boring

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  23. Woodshedder

    TOT has interesting chart. 2 strong gap ups in a row.

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  24. alphadawgg

    TOT….I own it. Will think about adding more if this market holds up at the end.

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  25. Trillions have been lopped off the world’s stock markets – and real estate markets. Inflation is desirable here to stay away from the deflation precipice and to cheapen debt. It is true that the Fed probably will not move correctly to head off inflation when the economy starts to grow again.

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  26. pimp

    I’m telling you guys for the last time.

    You are all tootsie roll dicks.

    Think about it.

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  27. Scully

    Sold am MS position from 13.75 @ 16 stop.

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  28. sniper6

    wow, broke-dick action now. See ya in a half hour

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  29. jjjsix6

    I’ve just added more green paper to the fire I call SSO

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  30. Scully

    Bools launching another wave…

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  31. The Fly

    BOOO-Fucking-YAH!!!

    Up we go.

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  32. stockfan

    Fly,

    What do you think of C here ?

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  33. ALLPROz

    Ah, melts up are fun to watch….no one wants to miss the train….choochoo…..

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  34. wtf?

    Fly, thanks for all your great calls on this site.

    This has been the best 2 weeks trading since January for me.

    As for DevilDog, he is always losing, even when he appears to be winning!

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  35. punyandy

    Blast off.

    Fuck you Devildog, you are dead.

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  36. The Fly

    Get ready to suck your own dick, pal.

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  37. The Fly

    Can someone give me an update on Dog’s portfolio.

    I think he was 250% short AAPL and some double inverse Utility etf.

    Thanks in advance.

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  38. ALLPROz

    DOG’s portfolio = HOUSE OF PAIN !!!

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  39. ALLPROz

    Dog was buying SKF yesterday on the way up in .25 increments….doubling up on each new entry….ouch….

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  40. Yogi & Boo Boo

    Just got back… WTF! Yhee Ha!

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  41. Damon

    MOS on a tear. They sure didn’t want it in the 20’s, so let ’em buy it in the $40’s…..filthy bastards.

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  42. so i herd you liek mudkips
    so i herd you liek mudkips

    holy crap, totally regret going all cash an hour ago.

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  43. theinsider

    hero,mos,dow,cna,sks,-they all have substantial insider buying- didn’t somebody just get in greenspan’s grill for lowering rates to 1%-probably just a dream.

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  44. Yogi & Boo Boo

    Mudkips – like they sez in these parts, “Ya can’t win if ya don’t play.”

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  45. An Old Bull

    A young bull and an old bull were standing on a hill overlooking a forest in which the bears were having their picnic.

    And the young bull said to the old bull: “OMG OMG 50 points! Let’s run down the hill and gore one of them bears!”

    And the old bull said to the young bull: “No, son. Let’s spend the hour after the news release *walking* down this hill, and gore ’em ALL. And their little dog Toto, too.”

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  46. StockRake

    Don’t forget about VLO during this mayhem.

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  47. Scully

    Run the close…big dump on GDP tomorrow morning, to be bought…

    Close above 950 today, it should become support until 11/4…maybe 11/3

    DOW 10K this week still in play…holding all remaining longs.

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  48. Language Dork

    Looking to add SRS as a hedge at the close if this run-up continues. Sub-110 looks good to me.

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  49. Yogi & Boo Boo

    Old Bull – Very nice. +5

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  50. CAP

    Did anyone see a rally ? Where did the rally go ? I could have sworn we were up close to 300.

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  51. T MOE

    Bought 300 EEV
    Sold short 1000 X
    Sold short 1000 SHLD

    bought puts/calls on FSLR

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  52. TraderCaddy

    I do believe the guy on CNBC, with the Hop Sing rat tail, has dyed black part of his Devil’s Beard.

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  53. T MOE

    Pricing

    EEV @ 108.52
    X @ 35.90
    SHLD @ 63.13

    will cover it all tomorrow…..bitch

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  54. Donny

    Come on boys … take it up!

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  55. T MOE

    Donny

    Take it up the ass?

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  56. SEEEELLLLLLLL

    SSSSSEEEEELLLLLLLLLL

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  57. The Fly

    Fuck you shorts, you’re dead.

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  58. Employee8

    Fly:

    DEVILDOG Says:

    285% SHORT and staying that way. Write it down and don’t deny it over the next 12 days. bulltards lose.

    Clown Raped!

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  59. DownTick

    CLNE, good night Irene.

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  60. Topper Harley

    CAP, 300 is just 40 points away. Go eat your cock now.

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  61. ALLPROz

    Adding to EEM for overnight reaction overseas to follow through in morning……

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  62. The Zombie

    “The Fly Says:

    Fuck you shorts, you’re dead.”

    There it is; that’s the one. Was waiting for that.

    THE FLY IS GOD.

    Sorry, Devil Puppy.

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  63. T MOE

    adding to my SPY shorts here. This is unsustainable

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  64. Ass Napkin Mike

    Anyone playing FSLR with options?

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  65. Employee8

    110% long now …. selling into strength soon

    Holding MOS, CLF, FCX, NOV but envious of CMP!

    CNX/CXG kicking ass …

    HIG reports at 5pm and s/b reporting a loss of 8-8.50 … buy after hours for a potential merger candidate … MET already offered to merge and TRV wants their P&C biz … just saying.

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  66. Contrary Indicator
    Contrary Indicator

    Devil Dog’s gonna be grounded!

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  67. Scully

    1100 doable if we hold 950 today…get the pikers to chase it and try to make up some of the 40% they’ve lost.

    Gotta take 10K on the media-hyped representation of the stock market, for the saps @ my YC to pay attention and stop saying…’I don’t even look anymore’

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  68. TraderCaddy

    Quick. Close the market early Hank and Uncle Ben.

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  69. Commodities King

    Fly,

    What is your take on CLNE? It looks so undervalued

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  70. Employee8

    Fly … can the PPT provide an update of top shorted stocks that haven’t covered yet?

    Looking for more LVS plays.

    Thanks

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  71. scum bucket

    Who farted?

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  72. T MOE

    Shorting GS @ 99.50

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  73. Donny

    You fucking longs are blowing my opportunity right now! Buy, Buy, Buy!

    Oh shit, there it goes. Thanks a lot fuckers.

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  74. Merlin

    Poof! That was fun.

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  75. T MOE

    Shorting AAPL and RIMM right here

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  76. Woodshedder

    Dammit. I needed a strong close to get short in the a.m.

    Fucking bulls are pussies.

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  77. Mr Market

    T MOE….like a broken clock…you eventually get it right.

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  78. Donny

    Why are you fuckers selling … “it’s gonna go back up tomorrow”! (wink-wink) 1000 more points tomorrow!

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  79. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Well they puked the bell. Fucking faggots. Oh well there goes that bullshit rally shit.

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  80. An Old Bull

    LOL. OK, how about we just walk down the hill and prod at ’em while wearing rubber clown noses on our horns. You know, as a reminder of what we could have done if we weren’t in such a generous mood today.

    *clicks refresh*

    Well, son, somedays you gets the bear, somedays the bear gets you.

    What a hilarious finish…

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  81. ALLPROz

    T Moe,

    How bout hedge with long AAPL…short RIMM?

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  82. Donny

    Shedder … I feel like kicking somebody’s ass!

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  83. T MOE

    Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha

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  84. TraderCaddy

    Who needs the track or Vegas when we have Wall Street.

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  85. Scully

    EV right back thru 950 like Buttah

    Got stopped for nice gain on MS but completely missed the down move…

    VIX still looks broke.

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  86. Rally Monkey

    That’s what you fuckfaces get for not respecting me.

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  87. ALLPROz

    WOOD,

    How bout LVS short right here……….

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  88. Eye No Stuff

    GE – That fucking Jeff “I-melt the mkt”. 10% revenue decline? Holy crap. The world is coming to an end.

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  89. Behold; devildog will show up soon claiming he shorted at the highs again.

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  90. T MOE

    I love the last hour, just wish I didn’t have to listen to Maria’s dumb ass

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  91. Merlin is just playin with ya – over 400 points down in 15 minutes. The stock market crashed in September – it went down 30% – that is a crash and it will not recover in a few days.

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  92. TP

    Merlin says fuck you, you’re dead

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  93. Henry Fool

    That was fuckin cool!

    Some poor fuck somewhere who had been sitting on his hands having missed the bottom jumped in on that melt up thinking we were going to 10,000 without him.

    then…… Poof!

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  94. ALLPROz

    So GE is fucked up….and we all pay for it………

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  95. the Bear

    BWAHAHAHAHAHA you fucking long morons!

    BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

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  96. mrkcbill

    Arrmegeddon [sic] back on the table.

    put an order for UYM @ 21 just got back. Oh well.

    Cold Calls Hard Cold Calls

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  97. DOW has moved triple digits every day this month except 2 days…truly scitzophrenic (sic)

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  98. Ass Napkin Mike

    Just made good money for a 10 minute trade

    covered X (see above bought 35.90 sold 34.72) + $1018
    covered SHLD (bought 63.13 sold 61.13) + $2000
    still holding EEV (bought 108.52)

    cool

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  99. TraderCaddy

    Since when is Mexico well managed?

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  100. ottnott

    I hope you technical traders are using 2-second charts.

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  101. Jimmy Chin

    I think Jeff Immelt is DEVILDOG’S daddy. They both suck supremely.

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  102. Yogi & Boo Boo

    Hey T-Moe – I’m laughing here too. Even with a 372 point drop at the close I’m still up for the day, year and month with my current longs. How’s your shorts doing ovah thea?

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  103. mrkcbill

    Bueller?

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  104. Yogi & Boo Boo

    Oh Brother bear – that last post was for you too. Shouldn’t you be fattening up for winter hibernation? Go get some zzzzz’s.

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  105. mrkcbill

    Trying to believe in an Uncle Sam rally is like being a fucking rube….Like trying to win the stuffed animal @ Atlantic City.

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  106. norcal

    CLNE price is anticipating that California voters will reject T Boone Pickens pocket-picking scheme known as Prop. 10. However, if Prop. 10 does pass CLNE will skyrocket. We shall find out on Nov 4th!

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  107. Global Depression
    Global Depression

    There is no fucking way the implications of a 10%-15% revenue contraction at GE is discounted. That’s a gigantic contraction in next year’s GDP. Stunning.

    My oringinal estimate of GDP being down 3%-5% next year will prove to be way, way, way too optimistic if GE’s forecast is anywhere near accurate.

    S&P will bottom with a 5 handle next year.

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  108. blackie swan

    Fly..TAKE IT LIKE A MAN

    NO BODY TOLD U TO NOT CASH IN WHEN UR UP 10%]

    ALL THE COKE SUCKERS THAT WILL RANT AGAINST ME R THE COCKSUCKERS WHO LOST BEING TOO GREEDY..

    FLY AND HIS CO-COCKSUCKERS LISTEN UP:

    MARKETS R, VE BEEN, AND ‘LL BE IRRARTIONAL…..GO FIGURE..OR QUIT IT..I PITY THE FOOL WHO TRADES…JUMP OF A CLIFF …LIKE AUSSIE $

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  109. Cottonelle Ultra

    Ass Napkin, learn some MATH. When you
    (bought 35.90 sold 34.72) + $1018

    that is a FUCKIN’ LOSS, you home schooled Dipshitz!

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  110. blackie swan

    LONGS WILL B SOON BEGGING AT THE LOCAL 711

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  111. JakeGint

    Okay, so “T Moe” is also “Ass Napkin Mike?”

    Any more fucked up names you want to reveal?

    And is “Blackie Swan” the Devil Dog in hiding?

    ________

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