If you are long the market, listen to me: you are doomed.
One sector at a time, Mother Market is “hurricaning” through your portfolio. Mess around and start buying dips again, you’ll find yourself on the receiving end of a foreclosure.
“The Fly” enjoyed massive wins today, up more than 4%, despite his basic material miscues.
During the day, I sold out of my Southern Copper Corporation (USA) [[PCU]] and Equinix, Inc. [[EQIX]] positions. However, erroneously, I bought more Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. [[FCX]] .
In order to dig myself out of the commodity mess I find myself in, I need to time my next average down, in a very Godly way. In short, my next buys into [[DIG]] , [[IEO]] and Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. [[FCX]] need to be perfect.
In closing, “The Fly”, once again, finds himself heavily short the banks, real estate and China. Do not feel embarrassed by your market inadequacies. Instead, feel solace in knowing there are smarter men out there, crushing the indices, who drive time machines and consider themselves “space alien magicians,” whether it’s true or not.
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Fly, you complete me, in a non gay way.
FLY.. after my perfect crude short in Gustav i gave another trade idea on monday .. just so you recall i said…
“going long the rut 750 puts at 18”
i sold those on the close today at 34.
also on the close i made my latest great move..
i went long 500k worth of long sept options.. i bought the
dug 37 p
x 120 c
pot 160c
mdr 30c
fcx 85c
gg 30c
hk 30c
im just looking for a quickie here as we will go lower but i expect to bank at least 200k on this trade.. a “dead cat bounce” if you will… it looks as if the long bank/retail .. short oils/metals etc trade is tired to me
downside volume exceeded upside volume by better than 12-1. either a bottom is imminent, or the gates of hell are about to open up.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s8MDNFaGfT4
188 points away from “The Return”
Whatever is left of tech money will go into AAPL starting next week… only long worth it in the sector… tell your broker to buy you some… tell him Billy sent you!!
Big snacks:
Post your picks in the PG.
i do remember seeing the rut puts at 18
Every body wanted a stronger Dollar well here you go!! Enjoy the death of Infrastructure, Commodities, BRIC along with the Destruction of the entire market!
The beatings will continue until moral improves 🙂
How you boys feel about gold?
Fly,
I bought that FCX today. If it fails, I plan on starting bad rumors about you in your favorite pizza shop.
Still, we’re due for some sort of bounce soon. Even if it will be short-lived.
-DT
Going long the QLD in after hours. Have to get a pop tomorrow or Monday…
fly.. how do you do that? is there a comments section
Big Snacks, click on Join The Peanut Gallery link just below the Peanut Gallery (PG) headlines.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ajNOveuSD9V8
Fry – When you finally give into our offer to buy ibankcoin due to your sub par trading performance, do be assured we will censor most of lame commentary your cronies post…and we’ll be changing the name to ibankwon…and enjoying 2 and half inch dog steaks.
Fly you’re making me nervous. Be patient, trust in yourself and stick to your original game plan. You know what’s going on. No need to put more capital in a falling knife when you know a high probability trade.
Ok rant over, hand a good one 🙂
Futures just dropped.
You all may enjoy this.
http://tinyurl.com/5fowa8
It’s Bill Gross’ investment outlook. In summary, his position essentially is DUCK!!
Ante Up
I can’t wait to pick up YHOO under $9/share in a few months. That’s gonna be fuckin’ sweet. I hope Yang is good at doing laundry because he’s gonna make a “lateral move” in the ol’ org chart. Hehhehheh.
Cubs:
What do you mean?
I am net short, long commodities. I am comfy with that trade.
You realize everything has been double plus screwed up since you stopped swearing, Fly. As proof, consider:
1. Hurricane season gone wild.
2. Major market trickery.
3. All everybody wants to talk about is some hot librarian type chick from Alaska with glasses.
Things won’t be right until you get back to swearing like an Army drill sargeant.
In the meantime, I surrender, I give up, I capitulate … excuse me while I go throw myself on the nearest sword and put all my money into the book business which is sadly making more money for me than the market.
Fly, in answer to your question to Cubs:
To quote myself from August 19:
http://www.ibankcoin.com/peanut_gallery/index.php/2008/08/19/what-you-herd-is-wrong/
Howzit Huh?
The current meme is that as long as (USO: 87.02 -1.61%) slinks lower, then one should jump back into the market. Usually with the same old wrong idea that the ‘leaders from before will be the leaders anew’ (which is bunk as well but anyways) and generally when there is a correction – there is a near panic wave of selling.
The real counter-counter trend would be to set expectations (probably through options or ETFs to limit exposure) in such a way that at some point there is going to be a real counter trend where both the Financials & the Black Gold rally at the same time.
Anyone caught in pair trading of those two when that trade happens will become the traders equivalent of the castrato and no one really wants to be around on that end of the trade.
However, the other option is a massive drop in both markets and commodities. Again, as with an upside move – this can cause problems to one’s self image and bank account.
I SOLD ALL <Y ENERGY LONGS AT THE OPEN TUESDAY, and WENT SHORT ON SOME UPTICKS< THEN COVERED TODAY all in all I MADE coin.
Hey Fly,
When the Dow hits 11,000-x, don’t start working blue again. Your blog has been my no. 1 with a spear tip ever since your vows, and you know, my son, and that clean act’s been working so well for Jerry Seinfeld for such a long, long time.
Anyway, think about it – and lemme say I appreciate the SRS and FXP tips, Fly. I’m holding Red Sea-type volumes of puts on XLF, EEM, and my new fave, CMA.
Dad says he wants the time machine back, by the way – Friday after work OK? The fatted calf and goat as usual. And remember don’t BYOB – I never run out ovah heah.
All the best to you, beloved.
JC
ps remember when Father Dom said I can see you when you touch yourself?
I can, but really – I’d rather not.
PAX!!!!
Fly,
Sorry you bot instead of sold, but it makes me laugh and I have to admit I’ve done the same. Funny nonetheless…
Hang Seng below 20K. I remember someone making a fuss about how the powers to be didn’t wanna see the index drop below that number.
FXP has hit 100 – I hate it. Asia is mostly red now but I fear Hank Paulson and the PPT will propose a Bill Gross type bail out and rally the market 100s of points and thwart my short ETFs.
FLY,
Everytime you start talking shit like this you get yourself (and some of your leeches) smoked. I think the finacials rally after tomorrow’s number. Either immediately or after sharp and short plunge.
The market bounces tomorrow, and might bounce HARD. I need my house and two cars back from the last poor trade. Your money is just as good as the next guy’s to pay for it. The bond insurers held tough today a tell for tommorrow.
C’est la vie mon ami
Au:
Shut up.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/566-PIMCOs-Bill-Gross-Make-My-Willful-Bad-Bet-Good.html
Denninger tells Bill Gross & Pimco to go fuck themselves.
Hey Fly
Since your burning the midnight oil do you mind sharing your thoughts with a peasant like myself?
I’m wondering if you’d add to the defense stocks here particularly AVAV
I will tomorrow, I promise not to gloat on my “glorious victory” over the unable.
Fly, get your checkbook out…it was an expensive house with even more expensive cars.
oh shit. do not like that projected path for ike. Boca did you see it?
I will go check out the projected path now, thanks chivas.
Woody,
will you be moderating the debate tonight? lol.
Well we’re right in the center of the path chivas. I’m sure hoping the projected path takes a turn by this weekend. Will you stay or go if it does come here?
Boca,
i am undergoing a two day procedure at the hospital monday and tuesday. may have to move it up to saturday and sunday. assuming everything ok, i will leave miami with my 2 sons.
Good luck, hope it all goes well, glad you’ll be with your sons.
WARNING ! WARNING! Will Robinson
POLITICAL Comment below .. fm Fari Hamzei of Hamzei Analytics
http://www.hamzeianalytics.net/2008/08/let-me-clear-something-up-once-and-for.html
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Let me clear something up once and for all
Fari Hamzei
This morning emails are continuing to pour in and I feel it is better I write to all of you all at once, clear some air and get every body focused back on the markets and the week ahead. My only request is that, after reading my explanations, whether you agree with it or not, let’s just move on by NOT replying to this email and spare me of your response. We all have a lot to prepare for this coming week. Thanks for your understanding in advance.
First and foremost, I am not a political observer. And my market comment last Friday for Timer Digest was not supposed to be interpreted as a political statement. At Timer Digest, the Top Ten market timers (out of approximately 150 timers) are encouraged, twice a week, to email in and highlight what each of us observe as key issues facing/impacting the markets in the short term. Our comments are posted on Timer Digest’s hotline on Wednesday late afternoons and Saturday mornings.
Second, I am a die-hard Reagan Republican. As the part of my preparation for the markets, I read a lot of market-related reports, on a daily basis, from highly regarded authors and I was simply highlighting what issues this fragile market might be reacting to, including, but not limited to, the general elections, the bond and commodity markets, hurricanes, and the Russian behavior in the Caucasus.
If you carefully review the minute by minute trading data on Friday (after a series of better-than-expected economic sentiment data during the first 30 min of regular trading), market began selling [hard] exactly when McCain Campaign confirmed the rumors that Gov Palin was indeed Senator McCain’s choice for his VP. Markets, in aggregate, are smarter than any one of us and we should heed their hidden message. (sometimes we do not get it right, including yours truly, back in May 19th –oh, well !!).
IMHO, what Senator McCain did is most unnerving — he gave away a very tight election at the time us Republicans must endure the many failures of Bush-Cheney era. If you look at this morning’s highly rated CBS “Face the Nation” or NBC “Meet the Press”, both anchors, Bob Schieffer and Tom Brokaw, opened with or brought up same concerns I wrote to you and Timer Digest on Friday.
I think I will sit this election out. My Republican vote won’t make a difference in IL where I reside now or back in CA where I lived most of my adult life. And by doing so, I think it may help me be more objective, and less emotional, than the previous five presidential elections I eagerly participated in.
About the Top of the Republican Ticket:
I’ve been privileged to work with the best and the brightest this great country has to offer and in the process it has raised my standards very high. I just can’t vote for a guy who came in 5th from the BOTTOM at Annapolis (for your info, I got into Princeton Engineering School at the age of 16, having been admitted to Annapolis, MIT & Cornell but finally opting for Princeton). For admission to Annapolis, as an allied officer, I received an appointment from President Richard Nixon. At Northrop Grumman, I was honored to work on US Navy F-18A Hornets and in my last two years there I reported to the Father of the Stealth Bomber (USAF B-2 Spirit), which some geopolitical analysts believe, its mere existence, crumbled the Soviet control over Eastern Europe.
And the Veep:
State of Alaska is less populated than the City of Chicago with a windfall budget surplus that you and I pay for at the gas pump. Per capita, that is an outlier fiscal condition. Lower 48 Governors are vastly better experienced as they operate in a more “normal” fiscal conditions. And before that, Gov. Palin was a mayor of a town with 9,000 people. These short and very limited experiences do not train her to be one heart beat away from becoming the Commander-in-Chief of the sole superpower the Free World has. This I know. I grew up and worked in the Military Industrial Complex in my backyards (in Washington & Los Angeles).
Read this http://www.ktva.com/ci_10339580?source=most_emailed
and this http://thebruceblog.wordpress.com/2008/08/29/interesting-mccain-chose-palin-when-she-is-under-scrutiny-and-investigation/
These are issues that Dems will bring up in the Presidential Debates.
About the Democratic Ticket:
oh, BTW, Senator Obama, although I understand he is very smart, IMHO, is not qualified either and does have a number of unsavory associates. Senator Biden is a wild card and gaffe central.
If these two tickets are the best this Great Land can come up with, then, it is indeed a very sad commentary on the State of Our Union.
Posted by Hamzei Analytics, LLC at 9:42 AM
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/nasdaq-homebuilders-housing-CHINA-oil-1987/index/a/18802
bubble comparisons & crash setups
juice thanks for that post. i am also big republican and i admit that the mkt action is very scary..
accroding to ned davis if a republican is going to win the election the mkt usually starts to rally by mid sept.. ill keep my fingers crossed.
Sweet charts Juice. Looks like the commodities will try to make one more stand and fail. So do I sell my MOS and CF puts here or just ride it out. They expire in JAN :/
I always enjoy your links, Thanks 🙂
Welcome back Fly
iBankCoin’s censor will lose his job today. Keep the kids away from the keyboard.
I love the smell of Skiffles in the morning.
does a UYG buy make sense here?
Juice,
Are you really shocked that line charts can be overlayed (sic) and it shows some correlation? I think I’m going to chart the percentage methane content of my farts and the minute by minute price swings of Nat Gas. Should be interesting, but I will need far more fibre (sic) and beans…
Gross wants Bailout
Fleck on Bill Gross:
“Gross brought this on himself, IMO…he is long, full up, losing, and now wants a bailout for his positions… I lost respect for him a while ago……”
Dow at 11090. I vote once the Dow touches 11000 intraday the conditions have been met and Fly can return to profaning the market.
I think it may be an appropriate time to bust out the “Bank Owned” picture of the White House?
might not happen today ‘fly dude’. waiting to post FUCK for the headline that is.
Fly, warm up with a few hell’s, damm’s and even a shit or two. Can’t wait for the Fly’s great fuckin return.
There’s plenty of time left in the trading day, Dice.
On Fast Money last night they were talking about a rumor that CSCO might make an acquisition. I wonder who it is.
for the love of God!
who are these sellers in FCX?
fcx capitulation…look at volume. wow
wtf, could be people trying to meet margin calls or raise cash…
Liking FCX here, have a small buy order in at $67.67
fcx….hoping for a bounce back to the 10 dma…similar to Aug. panic
Nah gunna do it, no sir, nah gunna do it
have to admit I’ve been thinking about dipping into FCX at these levels too.
a fucking watched fucking clock doesn’t fucking move. a fucking watched fucking pot never fucking boils. just post fucking fucker.
CLOSE ENOUGH FLY! I GIVE IT TO YOU!!! FUCK!
What will be The Flys first swear word. I’ll go with “Fuck” Something.
The Fly will not curse, ever again. Mark my words, 11,000 or not.
He is a changed man.
hope you’re wrong Woody.
Shed I think your right….something about PPT software and appealing more to the Wal-Mart crowd and Religous right. It just wasn’t playing in the red states.
Atticus was the largest holder of Phelps Dodge when it was acquired by FCX.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122056054369301101.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Captain, I think it obvious that Bill Gross is a Romulan Spy from the planet Stalin.
To use some of the Doc-TOR’s colorful language:
Fuck him and his mustache both.
Vulcans despise facial hair, btw.
____
zomg look how cheap ftk is
Captain, a recent capture of a Romulan ship in the Bullschitter Galaxy has uncovered archival video data explaining the missing Monkey god of the planet Chivas:
__
May I suggest some double longs? Particularly those that are most oversold?
AU CONTRAIR
You nailed it dude. Outstanding call….
Fly, hows DIG, SKF and FCX treating you today
.
LOL
found my monkey.
Redemptions starting at 3:30pm. The bulls haven’t won yet. Look at Europe especially the FTSE. Even while we rallied they continued to drop closing at the lows. I suspect a nasty close at hand. Nobody wants to be long headed into the weekend.
great. more bullshit LEH rumors fucking up my SKF position. give me a fucking break.
Where the F*ck is the Fly ? If the guy timed his buys like a space alien magician , he must be banking serious coin in FCX and DIG.
The new “Fly” is an improved better version – the old one was a mean rotten fly. The DOW went down over 700 points intraday – so it had to bounce here – nothing is changed.
VMC: “BUY BUY BUY” (back up truck sounds)
Fly is in Romania, assholes.
more friday afternoon treasury rumors. swell. glad i sold my SKF today. not glad that i timed the buy perfectly and fucked up the sell, leaving me with nearly a round trip. at least i can put some gas in my car this week.
Why did you sell?
why did i sell the SKF, you mean?
i avg’d in at about 110. only wanted to scalp about 15pts. i wasn’t home all morning, but i knew it was up around 122. thought about running home and selling right then and there, but i expected a market fade, so i held off. by the time i got home it was 114 and change, and i dumped it immediately.
it’s trading 108 now. between the bogus LEH rumors and the FRE/FNM nonsense, i’ll just step away.
Huge rally coming monday…You know who you can thank.
thanks, “Better than you”…i got that house and 2 cars back, that’s all that counts. I really hope it wasn’t FLY’s money that paid for it….but since he is in Romania, I guess it was….and i don’t really care (that was a lie).
Swoo Swarry Fwry, off to eat robster and steak.
With the Johnny-come-lately shorts piling on too late, next week should be a nice rally… much to Fly’s chargrin. Bye, bye SKF see you at 90.00
What a day, could not have been better.
Fly loses his ass/money as usual and takes his boot lickers down along with him.
After hours, SFK drops 6 bucks!!! I bet little fly, soon to be maggot is running home to mommy.
I have never taken pleasure in anyone’s misfortune but I will make exception for the fly/maggot. You have dished it out, now take it.
Look in the mirror fly and see the loser. You know it to be true.
I actually do not wish FLY ill will and lost cash. I really like hearing his commentary and is grasp on the market, I just think you fall in love with a thought and do not “read” the market all the time, like all of us.
The hurricane play was one….the run up already happened, profit should have been taken before the weekend. WNR was a great call. SKF…the market and the finacials are all over the place and must be traded based on what jokers are going to do next…not what should happen.
Hurry back from Romania FLY…I will let you stay at the house I just won back today and you can drive one of the two cars….the shitty one. Jokes.
FLY LOSES AGAIN,
Thanks for giving us the inside scoop on what Fly bought and sold today.
P.S.
Throw yourself off the balcony.
So what’s the plan for Monday?
If the gov backstops FNM/FRE at stockholder expense (including the preferred) then the rally in financials will exclude some banks holding egregious amounts of GSE’s (See The Fly’s prior post on this subject below) but include the homebuilders based on expectations of lower mortgage rates to follow.
Winners: UYG, KBE, KRE, XLF, XHB, gold, energy, brokers, banks, home related and insurance, foreign currencies
Losers: UUP, Treasuries, SKF, LM, SOV, PZN, FNM/FRE debt holders, International Central Banks
http://www.ibankcoin.com/flyblog/index.php/2008/08/18/whos-holding-the-bag/
I covered my LM short and sold my SKF as news hit the street and both started to react … out unschathed but now thinking I should have kept the LM short and tried to find some PZN to short but time was short.
If the worlds central banks get fucked in this deal the dollar and treasuries will get killed and the play will revert to long oil/short fin’l, odd no?
Fly wow!!!! Great move. I wish I had half the brain you did because those were some real great calls. Funny when you loose your ass off you vanish…. I understand why you are called the fly now. It’s cause you eat and talk shit all day. Well look where it’s got you now… hahaha It’s like that McDonald’s commercial. Dahdahdahdattata~ I’m lovin it. When you loose of course…. Instead of calling yourself the fly you should try calling your self prison ass cause you sure like getting fucked!!!! Sincerely the flying dick.
P.S. I’ll be sure to fuck you when you are down again. Sure that will be real soon….
long materials and oils is mondays plan…the XLF refused to breakdown this week inspite of the massive hit to the markets on Thursday…. BAC is the largest weighting inside the ETF’s and you can see the stock is strong.
The recent upgrades to POT and others should get that story lit again…..
When you read the headlines and trade off your perception of what the market should do based on that noise then your trading results reflects your actions.
Put down the newspapers and the tv remote turn off the financial podcasts and just look at the charts…. what do they say? Commentators are paid to comment if they could trade they would and wouldn’t waste their time positing BS.
Price and volume are the only truths….
what’s with this fly-bashing? you guys sound like rejects from a yahoo message board.
The commodity (especially oil) bubble was freaking obvious. When oil rallies and SPECULATION of future demand brought Mom and Pop into the market, I knew the jig was up. Bot DUG and have been enjoying every minute of the correction. Also went completely to dollar-denominated securities in July. Decoupling is garbage. GSE preferreds will be protected in the rescue plan as to not destroy banks, pensions and insurance companies. Watch and learn.
Fuck you hitler.
hitler,
n.b. nice couple of trades, but remember, the market is bigger than the Fed or the dollar; when that will become obvious remains to be seen.
Hitler …. the common and preferred have been spared less dividends … how’s that feel?
i’m glad i can be somebody’s favorite.
It is Hilter, not Hitler. Just like Frankensteen, not Frankenstien.
sorry, can’t read.
dannian slip.
If you don’t think he chose “Hilter” for a reason, you’re busted for lack of obviousness association.
_
I don’t think I’ve ever been more furious w. my government, btw.
_
amen Jake, but I literally have a semi thinking about how much money I am going to make by shorting this rally. I don’t know if I will step in tomorrow, I may, but one thing is for certain — I am shorting this rally.
I don’t even know if I have the heart to short at this point… I am just so fucking disappointed.
It’s like, all the stuff the crazy nutballs said about the gov’t… every last fucking thing, was true.
You FUCKING BASTARDS! HOW DARE YOU!? HOW FUCKING DARE YOU!!?
That said, I am short, and will remain so.
(Sigh)
__
Jake, it does seem so fucking surreal.
jake I will make a post when I go short.
Now that you’re not sleepwalking Jake, try to pay attention. Short the McCain/Palin ticket too!