When China Mobile Ltd. (ADR) [[CHL]] was in the 70’s and I told you it would have a 5 handle soon, you all laughed at me, while eating greasy smoked ribs. When I said China Life Insurance Company Ltd. (ADR) [[LFC]] is a “whore of an equity,” you all chomped corn cobs, like freakin’ beavers eating through wood.
Much to my naysayers chagrin, [[FXP]] is going to print $100 soon, thanks to overwhelming weakness in Chinese H shares. With the Chinese stock market in the dumps, I love the prospects for [[EEV]] and FXP.
Also, remember, FXP gets you short PetroChina Company Limited (ADR) [[PTR]] , China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (ADR) [[SNP]] and CNOOC Limited (ADR) [[CEO]] too. It has something for everyone.
Look for crude to bounce here. Right away, start plugging away at the refiners. Again, I like Western Refining, Inc. [[WNR]] , Valero Energy Corporation [[VLO]] , Frontier Oil Corporation [[FTO]] and Tesoro Corporation [[TSO]] .
As for the basic material space, it is going to bounce with great fury soon. However, for a hedge, I like VeraSun Energy Corporation [[VSE]] and Clean Energy Fuels Corp. [[CLNE]] here. I am long both.
Courtesy of “The PPT,” here is a small list of basic material names, sorted by large percentage of shares sold short:
Encore Wire Corporation [[WIRE]] : 30.7%
Western Refining, Inc. [[WNR]] : 29.9%
Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] : 27.5%
Trico Marine Services Inc [[TRMA]] : 27.4%
USEC Inc. [[USU]] : 25.4%
RTI International Metals, Inc. [[RTI]] : 24.5%
[[GGC]] : 24.1%
McMoRan Exploration Co. [[MMR]] : 22.9%
Apex Silver Mines Limited [[SIL]] : 22.1%
Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]] : 21.4%
Allis-Chalmers Energy Inc. [[ALY]] : 21%
Insteel Industries, Inc. [[IIIN]] : 20.7%
Metalico, Inc. [[MEA]] : 20%
Goodrich Petroleum Corporation [[GDP]] : 19.8%
Tesoro Corporation [[TSO]] : 19.8%
CARBO Ceramics Inc. [[CRR]] : 19.2%
Dynamic Materials Corporation [[BOOM]] : 18.9%
VeraSun Energy Corporation [[VSE]] : 18.7%
As you know, I am not a big fan of technical analysis. However, I am a huge believer in monitoring price action. The way a stock behaves tells a story. I don’t believe in all of the mumbo-jumbo formations that may or mat not indicate a “break out.” However, I do believe there is something to be said about a stock hitting a 52 week high on a daily basis or a stock up big, on monster volume.
That is why I have put iBC’s IT department to work, in slave-like fashion, to develop The PPT.
I will explain what it can do, in detail, the closer we get to launch (October 28th). Just know, it will monitor the price action of every stock publicly traded, using the parameters I deem important. And, as an aside, we will give the user the power to set his own parameters too.
NOTE: Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]] caught a downgrade this morning by Credit Suisse, mainly because Bill Miller sucks.
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Good work Fly, but riddle me this, how is it that WNR has the same percentage of shares sold short as it did on Aug 31st?
http://www.ibankcoin.com/flyblog/index.php/2008/08/31/refiners-should-run-and-so-should-you/
Just coincidence, I guess?
Thanks!
It’s not reported in real time, bozo.
TIVO takes 9!
it’s still lookin sweet!
TEX destroying some wealth today.
As an aside, The Fly might be able to start swearing soon.
Boca, i don’t see any pigs flying.
I told you TEX would blow up.
http://www.ibankcoin.com/flyblog/index.php/2008/06/24/the-unwinding-of-the-infrastructure-boom-has-begun/
Next up VMC.
Global growth is dead.
TEX, TXI, CAT, VMC, EXP, MLM, GVA, FWLT, FLR and ABB are all dead.
at 11448, the Dow is one panicky day of selling away from 11,000.
Sometime in the next couple of weeks, I believe Fly will be revving up the swear words again.
EWW is fuckin toast!!
fly
When you say “basic materials will” fly are you suggesting miners such as stock like BHP?
if so why are you saying China is going to hell? If china is going to the 8th circle of hell wouldn’t basic material stocks also take a hammering?
Sooo… why is my DUG taking off?
dunno:
are you saying a stock like BHP will take off. That’s what I’m asking. Are you including BHP as a basic material stock?