You thought today’s tape was benign, with a slightly bullish bias for the banks?
Look again.
The commodity/infrastructure plays were manhandled, yet again.
Look at the losses in Joy Global Inc. [[JOYG]] , Bucyrus International, Inc. [[BUCY]] , Foster Wheeler Ltd. [[FWLT]] , Fluor Corporation (NEW) [[FLR]] , Caterpillar Inc. [[CAT]] , Terex Corporation [[TEX]] , McDermott International [[MDR]] , amongst others. And how about the dry bulk shippers? Boy, they were great, right.
Look again.
Shares of DryShips Inc. [[DRYS]] , TBS International Limited [[TBSI]] and Genco Shipping & Trading Limited Genco Shipping & Trading Limited [[GNK]] have been oven stuffed and eaten.
The ongoing theme is destruction. One sector at a time—everything is burning. Albeit, from time to time, you will get an oasis sector, like ag, oils and banks; but for the most part this market has been the greatest destroyer of wealth EVER.
I have never seen anything like it, yet the vix is still in the low 20’s and ‘tards on the tube keep talking like everything is honkey dory.
Hello, anyone home?
Aside from the great commodity crash, today is D-Day for tech. Ooh, everyone said money would roll out of oil into Research In Motion Limited (USA) [[RIMM]] , Apple Inc. [[AAPL]] and Intel Corporation [[INTC]] .
How’s that working for you?
The semi’s, led by Lam Research Corporation [[LRCX]] , Intel Corporation Cypress Semiconductor Corporation [[CY]] , Marvell Technology Group Ltd. [[MRVL]] , [[WRF]] and Altera Corporation [[ALTR]] , are dead and buried too. Don’t even get me started on the solars.
Basically, pick a strong sector and short it. You like how healthcare or biotech is trading?
Short them.
You know they will be taken to the woodshed, eventually, by some “unforeseen event.”
With my money, I am prepared to buy more [[SKF]] at $105. And, I will continue to buy the dips in [[DIG]] , [[IEO]] , Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. [[FCX]] , Southern Copper Corporation (USA) [[PCU]] and National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] .
Also, I still like the refiners, particularly Western Refining, Inc. [[WNR]] , for a trade. Don’t even get me started on Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]] . Bill Miller is making a comeback. Hurry up, get long.
Get back to me in two months and tell me how that worked for you.
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“Basically, pick a strong sector and short it”
This trade has worked great for me in the past couple months. Every time Tech was roll’in I got short the Q’s. I did get out of my QID and QQQQ puts today as it seems oversold and near trend line support.
WRF should be WFR?
i nibbled on the SKF today. of course i bought the fucking thing at 112, and it’s proceeding to kick me in the face. maybe 45 seconds after i bought it, that stupid press release about C hiring some douche, caused a shenanigans run-up in the banks.
Welcome to hell.
trading with hubris is supersillyous [sic]
Fly,
WNR 1k @ $9.40
Thanks for the gum ball.
Poof. Your bullshit wealth is gone.
Well spoken….like the Fly of olde [sic], sans the cursing.
Imperial Lover
Hello Neighbor!
Money is being shuffled around like a deck of “Crazy 8’s” at an 8 yr olds birthday party.
That said, a game of musical chairs is next on the party agenda.
Fly, nice call on WNR.
You can add commodities, Chinese stocks, European stocks, high yield bonds, real estate and Japanese stocks to that title. Did I leave anything out?
Wasting away in Margaritaville,
Jimbo
Fly… anyone…
Not to be repetitive, but why are the Dow components holding up so well?
Do you believe this is a sector rotation or just dumb luck?
It’s times like these that I want to kick Kudlow in the nuts.
However what the hell is up with WAB? I keep waiting for it tank but it keeps on going up like it’s popping vitamin V. Same thing with GIS. Ridiculous.
Broker Merlin Says:
Poof. Your bullshit wealth is gone
It might be bull shit but ill take 22% any day of the week.
Right on FLY- No where to hide in this market. Realative strength is the bait used to trap the masses before having thier wallets stolen. On going rotation in the midst of a blood bath.
Fly, I told you, short everything. Short it until you can’t sleep at night. Short it so that you wake up at 3AM just to check the futures and wake before dawn from cold sweats & nightmares. If you’re one of those gentle types, short on a rally, but get short and be deep in it. I believe we are going for the 3rd leg down here and will blow out those July 15 lows.
For those of you that need such things use the 8/11 hi’s as your stop.
This market has made me mad at times and bloodied up my P&L and my delicate ego as well. From here on in I plan on taking scalps.
Juice, NAV up $4+ AH on good earnings report … short this guy:
http://www.ibankcoin.com/flyblog/index.php/2008/08/22/the-fly-has-a-secret-win/
Fuck today.
The Fly is God
corrected link:
http://boombustblog.com/component/option,com_myblog/show,The-first-forensic-analysis-of-the-next-step-in-my-investment-thesis—Navistar.html/Itemid,92/
E8: NAV 6 ah … They know how to play the stock promotion game. No doubt, they read Reggies work & decided to destroy his thesis & torch the shorts.
We’ll see how it trades over the next couple weeks. They won this round. NO doubt about that.
This is a NERO market. Everyone is fiddling while Wall st. burns. You better take scalps!!! This market will Hammer you like Oscar Wilde hammered Lord “whoever”. I am in cash with the AlphaDawg.
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2008/09/03/four-at-four-refinery-sensibilities/?mod=yahoo_hs
Bennet Sedacca
03:40:03 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
On the lookout for broker’s earnings…
If BB&T (BBT) had to pay 9% and Wells Fargo (WFC) 9 3/4% (why WFC would come cheap to BBT is beyond me), what do you figure Lehman (LEH), Merrill Lynch (MER), Morgan Stanley (MS), etc. will have to pay to shore up their balance sheets?
I doubt that they can get a deal done at all in the hybrid or preferred space as it would need to be in the 11-12% range.
It’s my opinion that the regionals like Regions Financial (RF), Zions Bancorp (ZION), Keycorp (KEY), National City (NCC), etc. have no chance whatsoever.
While not short financials, I am surprised at the lack of concern in XLF, BKX, etc.
I also think this is temporary and possibly makes the next move that much worse. So my firm sticks with the 2 year SPY dark side bet.
It’s just a matter of time until the stock market catches up to the credit market.
Mitsubishi UFJ to Lehman – Go fuck yourself.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=anVDbNAiGyY8&refer=home
Now speaking, the next Sec of the Treasury … Mitt Romney
Yo.
hey, what’s the software package that jeremy uses to create the funny videos of the fly detonating ducati’s stupid blog, etc.