iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,431 Blog Posts

Betting on a Blowup

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. [[LEH]] is screaming mercy. However, men who are short, like “The Fly,” will offer them no quarter.

They get the feared and unbelievably ominous black flag.

Into such weakness, it makes sense to be cautious and remember how corrupt the government is, with their egregious lending facilities. Like I said before, if you have been buried under losses, short the market while it spiked, now is the time to lower the volume and take a respite.

For me, I’m all about pressing the envelope, until it can be pressed no more.

Naturally, I have long positions to hedge against my shorts. However, I am willing to bet, with a certain amount of certitude, we go substantially lower.

Consider [[SKF]] around $133: it is cheap. I believe, under benign conditions, SKF should trade $140-145. The gains in the banks will not hold, because they cannot. Bear markets do not end quickly. And, when a sector gets blown out, it does not recovery immediately.

If you must, consider last year to be like 1989,while today is similar to 1990. We still have downside.

Right here, with new money, I would sell short Comerica Incorporated [[CMA]] , Las Vegas Sands Corp. [[LVS]] , First Horizon National Corporation [[FHN]] , Pzena Investment Management, Inc. [[PZN]] and Continental Airlines, Inc. [[CAL]] .

On the long side, I would buy National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , Barnes & Noble, Inc. [[BKS]] and Transocean Inc. [[RIG]] .

Also, for a huge dice roll, I hear decent things on [[PKT]] .

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17 comments

  1. Aristotle

    Mr Fly,

    What do you think of this most egregious fuckery?

    “WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The top U.S. securities regulator plans to propose a new short selling rule in the next few weeks which would be broader than an emergency order covering just 19 financial stocks which ended last week.

    U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox said on Tuesday the proposal “will focus on market-wide solutions.” He said it is not intended to have any impact on the direction of stock prices.

    Cox also said the agency is still considering proposing that investors be required to publicly disclose substantial short positions in stocks. Substantial long positions in stocks already have to be disclosed.

    “Our proposal will be designed to ensure the smooth functioning of the markets,” Cox told reporters. “We support the equally important role of bets on the upside and on the downside.”

    The SEC imposed an emergency rule on July 21 that required short sellers to pre-borrow stock in mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM – News) and Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE – News) and 17 major Wall Street firms such as Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS – News) before executing a short trade.

    Short sellers arrange to borrow shares they consider overvalued and sell them in hopes of making a profit when the price drops. It is a legitimate form of trading but often blamed when a company’s shares fall.

    The SEC’s emergency rule was aimed at cracking down on illegal naked short selling, when an investor sells stock that has not yet been borrowed.

    Cox said on Tuesday that failures to deliver stock “were reduced substantially” for the stocks covered by the emergency rule. “It was a very effective order from that standpoint,” Cox said.

    He said the SEC’s emergency rule was never intended to prop up the stock prices of the 19 companies. “We expected and intended to have no impact whatsoever on the direction of prices,” Cox said. “That’s not the purpose of regulations.”

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  2. Juice

    Short RCL & CCL. Technical breaks of July 15 rally uptrend.

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  3. The Fly

    The SEC is gay.

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  4. recusancy

    Hence the reason they appointed Cocks to the head.

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  5. D. Trump

    What? No SRS?

    SRS will be a monster

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  6. Prospectus

    SEC = Shitfaced Egregious Conduct

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  7. the hedgies will continue to sell stock thru the execution brokers and fail to deliver like they always do. Then when the carrying broker gets on the case of the execution broker to clean up the the “failing trade” the execution broker sends a note to the hedgie that they will have to “buy them in ” the hedgie recieves the note and rather than deliver shares they sold they simply buy back this position.

    same old same old….T + 1 settlement is supposed to address this issue. We’ll see.

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  8. Market Fool

    LEH to $0.01

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  9. The Fly

    SRS or course.

    I mention that stock 20 times per day.

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  10. AI

    You are wrong on CMA……….

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  11. recusancy

    SEC = Sucking Egregious Cocks

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  12. The Fly

    “The Fly” is never wrong.

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  13. the FLY is never wrong….might want to check with Mrs FLY….lol

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  14. Mrs Fly

    No comment.

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  15. calvino

    Many ran to le euro today, despite the bad German manufacturing report. Yesterday the dollar was less worse than le euro, today le euro is less worse than the dollar. Le euro is not a place of shelter it would seem.

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  16. InternationalGroupie

    calvino, me necessito muy currency info. any place you post your daily comments? here only?

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  17. cuervoslaugh

    @InternationalGroupie:

    Si usted necessita la informaccion, entonces usa usted la forma correcta en tu lengua.

    Por ejemplo: yo necessito, no me necessito.
    Gracias no hablar con las palabras sin perfeccion.

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