It’s far too nice in NYC for me to hang around with a bunch of stiffs, living the “office life.” I’m off to the pool or some other outdoor activity, yet to be decided.
“The Fly” had a masterful trading day, with gains all over the place. Let me remind you, I find great pleasure betting against the world’s premier investment bank: Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] .
For the day, my gains topped 4.5% (as of 3:00 pm), led by shorts in Vulcan Materials Company [[VMC]] ,, Marshall & Ilsley Corporation [[Mi]] , Zions Bancorporation [[ZION]] , Cathay General Bancorp [[CATY]] , East West Bancorp, Inc. [[EWBC]] , Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. [[MER]] , Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. [[LEH]] and a variety of inverse etf’, like [[FXP]] .
In addition, I bulked up my selling efforts in LM, as the once brilliant fund manager, Bill Miller, ups his stake in Freddie Mac [[FRE]] . How egregious?
Regarding the markets, I know we will hit new lows. All of this chatter of a ‘global slowdown’ has not been factored into the earnings estimates of our multi-nationals. The loss of revenue, from a global slowdown, far outweighs the gains to be had in a commodity collapse.
Remember, most companies are locked into long term contracts, regarding basic materials and crude. Therefore, copper can drop by 2/3rds right now, and it wouldn’t mean a lick for XYZ’s bottom line.
In short, get drunk and prepare to ride this tidal wave down to 10,850 by mid September.
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And all this happening as dino shit continues down. Poor asshats, actually believed that cheap oil was gonna somehow make all this bullshit debt disappear. If the PPT can’t make bullshit debt go away, cheap gas ain’t gonna do it either.
I like this:
SKF
SDS
DUG
SMN
Regarding the post above … EXCELLENT WORK FLY!
Have a good one 🙂
Great short on ZION! I’ll be shorting soon.
Paraphrasing John Mauldin:
With the S&P 500’s earnings coming under pressure, we could see 2008 earnings check in at the $50 level. With a generous 20 multiple, what does that say about SPY?
/Mauldin
Fly’s tongue will be freed in no time, while Hank and Co.’s tongues will be firmly planted in FRE and FNM’s posteriors, respectively.
Bye Bye Bull.. Hello bears. Teddy is king today.
Fly,
What are your thoughts on the $COMPQ?
Fil Zucchi
02:20:57 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Lehman Sale
Earlier we buzzed that Lehman Bros. (LEH) is having trouble unloading its $40 billion worth of commercial real estate and real estate securities. According to a Bloomberg story, the sticking point appears to be the price.
The outcome of this sale effort by LEH may end up being the most important event for commercial real estate this year because, much like the CDO sale by Merrill (MER), it will set a benchmark value for a large swath of commercial properties, as it pertains to future sales as well as leverage ratios when refinancings come up. It wil be very difficult for REIT’s to continue showing values of empty properties at cost, when a property next door was sold for half the price per square foot.
The first catalyst for the many mines about to go off in REIT land appears to be here.
August- check my blog. I’ve got several recent posts up about the COMPQ. The latest was with the NDX, but the same logic applies.
WOW! Senor Fly makes 4.5%+ and takes off early. Senor Fly, why not just go all with SKF?
Hey Fly,
Was thinking about your declining tax revenues comment the other day. Ever think of shorting TASR as the offshoot to that? I’m guessing “discretionary” items such as TASR will likely be the first to go when the NYPD comes up significantly short of their operating budget. Any comments appreciated. Also how’s this for a start:
“Net sales decreased $4.8 million, or 18%, to $21.1 million for the second quarter of 2008 compared to $25.9 million for the second quarter of 2007. We believe the decline in sales versus the prior year was the result of lower municipal spending in the U.S. as agencies reassigned budget dollars due to economic constraints, including significantly higher than budgeted fuel costs.”
WOW! Senor Fly makes 4.5%+ and takes off early. Senor Fly, why not just go all (in?) with SKF?
Because there’s not enough packing cotton and Tums available in all lower Manhattan to fill the ulcer holes that shit would open up.
___
Fuck yeah
Baby
Awesome gains Fly!!!
Should help offset some of those awesome losses you had the past couple of weeks.
Congrats…
.
Still the best LL Cool J vid/tune:
_
Some scrappy tropical disturbances 7 days out around N.O. on my bullshit weather model.
Dice roll with tight stops UNG & CHK.