This just in…
Vince ‘the bottom caller’ Farrell did the unbelievable today. He called a future bottom, saying: “we are going to retest the July 15th lows. Then, we will bottom.”
How insightful.
iBankCoin wins again.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Retest the July 15 lows ==== The Return of “The Old Fly”
Fly, LM looks like a great short. Thanks for calling my attention to it.
Tell him to tour the central valley of CA where homes selling for half a million dollars have no bid.
Definine no bid?
No bid is no bid.
LEH to .01
I think Farrell just qualified as a top candidate for the ‘Asshat of the Week Award’.
Mosca,
I am writing to you from the Amalfi Coast where I am currently enjoying my second vacation of the year thanks to the crude meltdown that I caught over the past few months. Not sure if you remember my call a few months back – long DUG, Short OIH, etc. etc. Well, it did pay off big, so I decided to take my proceeds and see if it is true what they say about the European economy and consulmer. I can tell you that neither the American nor European consumer is dead over here – I must be running into those that were on the right side of the trade in life. They played the perfect hedge. The Americans I am running into are, for the most part, doctors and those that do business with China – taking a break due to the Olympics. The big concern in the news is Georgia and whether Europe as a whole can prevent the Americans from getting the next gold metal. Not much talk about subprime, no talk about inflation, no talk about the underage bitches stealing gold at the Olympics…. My take away so far is that it isn’t too late to short Europe – they just dont get it. I think it appropriate that the first sight I see out of my window is Vesuvius.
Ciao for now
I hate Alveoli.
Anyone else?
Btw — I go on my second “vacation” this summer as well, tomorrow.
To lovely NY to see Mom/Grandma for the annual “week on the beach.”
A mere six hours from the Amalfi coast, with probably as many Italians.
OEW Summary for 8/18/08:
” Thus far the August 11th high of SPX 1313 remains the high for the uptrend. The first pullback from that high occurred last wednesday on the 13th to SPX 1275. On friday the 15th the SPX managed to rally back to 1302 during options expiration. Today the same 1275 was tested in the last hour heading into the close. A break below this level should force additional technical selling. Our near term indicators are displaying their first major weakness since this uptrend began on July 15th at SPX 1200. We continue to feel that a break below the OEW pivot at 1261 will signal the start of the next downtrend.”
Vinnies predilection for spotting bottoms has become a sore point in our marriage. One more bottom and I don’t know what I’ll do.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/update-behavior-corporate-insiders/story.aspx?guid=%7BBE795299%2DB702%2D4F59%2D91BF%2D26528ADDBF62%7D
I plan on picking up some EEV at the open, chart looks great and I haven’t seen anything to mak me bullish on the markets.
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=eev
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aO15W0_F_wkA&refer=economy
That EEV is a nice chart – like FXP – buy’em both and put a sale at 99.99999999.
Farrell cannot be correct because Cramer has declared that the July bottom was The Bottom.
And Cramer predicted $16 natty too.
Mickelson made his way into my list of “Celebrity Asshats” with his “opportunity in bank stocks” comment.
Bennet Sedacca
08:46:58 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Is there any hope for Lehman?
I have no position here, just reviewing data as I see it and I do not see any hope for Lehman (LEH).
It does not seem to have a handle on its balance sheet, it undoubtedly needs cash, and after selling stock a couple months back a cool 80% higher, it could be a bit tough to sell more equity. I suppose the company could, but you have to believe that people buying all the way down are not exactly thrilled at the moment.
In addition, Lehman’s benchmark preferred deal it did at 7.95% in February at 25 is now 15.5 bid for a cool 12.82% yield. So the preferred market is closed.
The debt market? Lehman’s debt trades, when it trades, in the +450-500 range so I would imagine it would have to come to market in the +600 range considering where other deals have been done of late.
The point to all of this? The capital raising window for Lehman and others is closed.
And business trends are awful. But to me, this is just one of many financial firms in this boat, and is just the poster child. When the window shuts and your balance sheet erodes, you are finished. Period.
The bottom of what? They talk with forked tongues in infantile ways. They do dress very nice to make up for it.
Todd Harrison
10:13:02 AM
position in aapl, yhoo, spx
Gate Sniffage
I hop into Turnaround Tuesday after a short respite to fix my hind quarter to find a crimson tide slip and slide. While I typically like to allow myself a few days to finger the tenor of the tape, I’ve placed a few chips on the early morning table. Among them:
*
Yahoo (YHOO) calls. While it “looks, feels and smells” like dead money, I continue to believe that this company has massive franchise value and offers the next-gen digital television station the biggest audience in the world on one fell swoop. Personally, I like the fact that the “smart money” has sold out and given up–that, to me, makes the play entirely less crowded. How sure am I? Sure enough to begin a 50% position in April calls and take a breath from there.
*
Who could buy them? Of the five major media wagons–News Corp (NWS), NBC-Universal (GE), Viacom (VIA), Time Warner (TWX) and Disney (DIS)–my gut (and this is pure “I don’t know nuttin’, this is a pure gut feel sense”) is that the House of Mouse would be the most logical fit. I’ll say this with two very important points in mind. First, this is not advice and second, I have a small position in Yahoo that has plenty of risk.
*
SPY calls. In part because it’s Turnaround Tuesday. In part because S&P 1270 is the trendline from the July lows on a closing basis and in part because, well, it’s Turnaround Tuesday! Stops on that trade will be set a stone’s throw from here.
*
Some more Merrill (MER) calls. I had a small position since last Wednesday and I’ve doubled down for schnitz and giggles. Of all my positions, this is by far the smallest and the dog on the shortest leash ($23 is a level that should hold and I’m using it as my stop).
*
Apple (AAPL) calls–pure NDX vehicle with an eye towards $180 (which would be acne) and a tight stop on the other side of my entry level.
Trade I’m looking at:
Energy into crude $110: I’ve been patient (and I’ll note that the driller stocks are NOT being patient) but this is a defined risk level I’m watching–and I’ve been watching–and it’s one I’ll play as we edge closer. When that happens, I’ll be keeping a VERY tight leash on my long exposure as perception is reality.
Of course, I’ll also remember that the historical correlation between equities and crude is NON-EXISTENT so I’ll watch all of my risk with a grain of salt and a shake of pepper.
It’s good to be home, Minyans–good luck today!
How is that HRB short treating you?
Bennet Sedacca
10:42:42 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
More on Lehman
Lehman’s (LEH) preferred stock I mentioned earlier, which I do not hold but suppose now wish I had a position in, just gapped down a cool 15%, bringing the yield to, coincidentally, 15%.
It’s getting less and less financable by the minute.
Risks are very very high in preferreds. I smell a panic coming, with ‘integer markets’.
I like to thank Jack Welch…Alan Greenspan…his wife Andrea…and all my friends at CNBC for allowing me my 15 minutes of fame many times by just selling my soul to the devil…once.