iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,907 Blog Posts

Oil Controls Your Fate

Tick by tick, oil is in control of your economic destiny.

Nothing really matters. Not earnings, economic forecasts or sentiment, just oil.

As oil weakens here, the market melts up, it’s that simple.

The quick advice is to avoid energy related names, during this sit storm. However, their valuations are extremely cheap and do not deserve to be trading at current prices. Remember, oil north of $100 is still fucking kickass for every single oil producer/driller.

For some reason, the sentiment has knee capped oil stocks to the point of mockery. Nonetheless, for now, it’s safer to wait for oil to bounce, prior to stepping in.

Agrium Inc. (USA) [[AGU]] crushed numbers by .85 cents and the stock is only up $3. Conversely, Vulcan Materials Company [[VMC]] missed by 30 football fields, and that fucker is running. I just broke a monitor, out of sheer hatred for stocks.

Freddie Mac [[FRE]] offered funny numbers this morning, which initially hurt the bank stocks. However, on the dip in oil, banks are running again.

Wake me up when this shit makes sense. I’m going to take a nap now.

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31 comments

  1. yankmydoodleitzadandy
    yankmydoodleitzadandy

    Shut down that wormy tumorous mass in your melon and buy everything making it’s 52-week lows.

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  2. BOTD

    try slamming your mouse into the desk, …it helps.

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  3. buylo

    ok Fly I’ve got a new one for you instead of the same old FXI n FXP – what do you think of INP? I know you have always liked towelheads what with you buying Cofffee at Dunkin Donuts, so this could be a good one for you, me and our ie your fans

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  4. Mr. EB

    Hang in there man.

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  5. JakeGint

    I just broke a monitor, out of sheer hatred for stocks.

    They are, after all, “for asshats.”

    __

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  6. CubsRock

    I have no clue wtf is going on here. If I was gay, I’d ask to take a nap with you Fly.

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  7. Juice

    I think Cubs is preparing to come out of a closet … and what better way than to dream of napping with an anonymous blog owner

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  8. BPOE

    I just ran quant type software and for some reason it said taking a nap is the best move for now. I think it talked to FLY’s time machine at the nano bar!!

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  9. The Fly

    Looks like some piker motherless whore stopped out of her VMC shorts.

    This stock should be down 10 today.

    Back to my nap.

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  10. boca

    “I just broke a monitor, out of sheer hatred for stocks.”

    I’ve had a few of those days in the last month.

    If it makes you feel any better Fly, this is purely anecdotal evidence, yet still interesting. The railroad tracks on which the boxcars of Florida limestone and aggregate are shipped from Deerfield to Florida Rock (part of VMC, no?) are not too far from my house and they are often silent lately. Up until this year, they were shipping at maximum capacity as many times a day as they could, you had to count on a looong wait at the train crossing. Now maybe I see one train a day, and a short line of boxcars … almost nothing compared to previous volume. IMHO stay with your short for the longer term.

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  11. Aris

    this market blows in every fucking way – dudes, chicks, donkeys, balloons..

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  12. alphadawgg

    5 out of 5 PPT globalists agree that:

    1.) oil and all commodity prices need to come way down.
    2.) the stock market needs to go up, so banks can raise capital easily and whenever they want.
    3.) the “official” CPI number always needs to be very low, thus saving the Treasury billions in interest on TIPS.
    4.) fuck the dollar— it will be replaced by the “Amero”
    5.) membership deserves priviledge

    (source: “PPT Handbook”, ‘How to be a Gazillionaire’, pp 666)

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  13. Scum Bucket Bitchez
    Scum Bucket Bitchez

    There may still be some down side to WYNN, Macau is booming

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  14. Market Fool

    Mr. Market will fuck who it wants, when it wants, at the worst possible time for its participants.

    Furthermore, Mr. Market can bust out merlin at any fucking time. And you know what happens when merlin shows up at your fucking door don’t you? Usually, you are in your boxer shorts with a dick in your hand among other egregious things.

    Poof bitches.

    Ps: fuck you Paris Hilton!

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  15. The Fly

    If they ever issue an “Amero,” I will join some militia to arrest Congressmen.

    Dead on with CPI. It is the governments way of ripping off senior citizens.

    Oil will come down, only if the rigged game is up, which I am not entirely sure of. Remember, it doesn’t belong above $80. However, it is, so it makes you think something else is in play.

    Stocks do need to go up. WM needs to be above $8.75, in order to raise capital. However, that does not mean it will.

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  16. Anton Cigur

    Some days I wish I’d never got out of prison.

    Yesterday was one of those days.
    ________________________________________

    Boca,
    I’m in Florida near Vero Beach on “family business.” I see fewer For Sale signs than I did a year ago. But some of the houses for sale look abandoned now (very few).

    I asked the nice lady who handles my mom’s account at the bank if they had many foreclosures last year and she said “Zero.” But they have higher lending standards than most. She said about four people a week were turning in their car keys, though.

    All anecdotal, of course, unlike reliable “government figures.”

    By the way, Boca, stay the hell away from the railroad tracks.

    People are going to get the wrong idea.

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  17. boca

    LMAO Anton. Crossing the tracks (in my car) is unavoidable if I want to go anywhere else in Boca from my little corner.

    BTW, don’t worry Anton, you’re on my short list of people I would consider visiting at the “Correctional Institute”. Bet you look good in that jumpsuit.

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  18. JakeGint

    So if I’m reading Boca right, she’s subtley hinting to Fly that there will be some “boxcar housing” available at “reasonable rates” soon.

    And in a warm area, as well! Whatta bargain!

    _

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  19. DSB

    Can we all take a minute to slow down and get back to what matters – giving out karma points on posts? IBC readers have failed egregiously as of late, this thread aside. I don’t know if everyone’s just mindfucked and confused, not knowing what to agree with – or if we’ve truly fallen into an abyss of not sharing with others? The latter be truly egregious.

    Also, can we form a raiding party to go over to seeking alpha and destroy Tom Brown’s bullshit thesis on why the banks stocks bottomed on the 16th? Every article he writes seems to get progressively deeper and deeper into dimentia. Kinda like when I worked in an alzheimer’s ward one summer.

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  20. Wyatt Burp

    Watching “The Boyz” maneuver this tape the last few weeks has been something to behold, truly artistic in a way. They have been looking to unload but they didn’t want to do so at lower levels. The only way they could push the market higher was to break the back of the massive pairs trade (Long Energy- Short Financials). When Lurch Paulson made his move and the Congress capitulated to all the Foreign assholes sitting on worthless Fan & Fred paper who were making threats, “The Boyz” saw their opening and made theirs. “Too big to fail”. “Treasury and The Fed have a Put under Financials”. And such was the hew and cry. Shazam!!!
    “The Boyz prime the pump and the dumb money takes the bait and pushes the Financials up 50% in 10 days and with them the rest of the market. With that half of the Pairs trade broken, it was easy to bring oil down which was the other half.. “Demand destruction” “China market in toilet. No demand for oil”.
    Bingo!!! Oil down $25 in a week.
    “The Boyz’ know whats coming in Sept. and, I assure you they will be among the first rats out the door. The only thing is, they’ll be the ones with the tidy profits.
    If the Chinese decide that now that the Olympics are over maybe they don’t want to finance quite as much of our debt as they did before, there will be blood. My advice? Get out when you see the 10 yr. selling off. That’s the signal “The Boyz” are watching.
    Cheers

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  21. boca

    No Jake, I’m saying a VMC subsidiary is not selling a lot of construction materials, therefore with low sales, doesn’t need to ship them. LOL, I’ll give you a boxcar, Jake.

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  22. alphadawgg

    Fly-
    The 82A1 is my gun of choice. You might want one when you join the militia and can’t spit on people from 1000 meters.

    http://www.barrettrifles.com/rifle_82.aspx

    Accept no substitutes.

    AD

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  23. Anton Cigur

    Boxcar Boca,

    We have a contractor doing some work on the house down here. He says many of his competitors have gone out of business. People can’t get home equity loans and/or don’t think they can get their money back in resale value.

    After the last hurricane, contractors were booked for as much as two years out.

    BTW, orange really sets off the green of my neck tattoos.

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  24. Aris

    i think oil can go lower, if the giant pension funds that flooded the commodities market finally capitulate. they’re a stubborn bunch, however, and can probably out-wait most folks. especially hedge funds.

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  25. boca

    Anton, let me know if you need me to replenish your commissary account, after all even gangstas need love *grin*

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  26. JakeGint

    Alpha… 31 pounds, holy shit… is it goat-mounted?
    _____

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  27. alphadawgg

    Jake–
    Because of the weight, recoil is no more than a 12-guage. Double hearing protection recommended, though.

    This rifle has changed the face of the insurgency and the terrorists in Iraq and Afghanistan, i.e. it’s making them more “holy”.

    The goat is an extra 75 pounds.

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  28. TravelinLight

    Boca,

    I’m in Delray Beach… ’bout 100 feet away from those tracks. Don’t know about deliveries to Florida Rock, but I’ve noticed less track traffic too.

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  29. JakeGint

    AD–

    My goat would have to be “extra sturdy,” as it would require a saddle and a .50 mount.

    _

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  30. JakeGint

    Travelin’,

    Are you in that brokerage office right over there by the RR tracks… the local brand?

    I’ve passed it a million times on my way to A1-A.

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  31. TravelinLight

    Jake… I know the place you’re talking about. I’m not in the business…Internet entrepreneur, and I was referring to my residence. Always enjoy your comments… wish I had a bit more time to engage in the banter here… just a lurker for the most part.

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