iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
22,548 Blog Posts

Oatmeal Time

I don’t have time for this shit. I’ve got an appointment with an oversized bowl of oatmeal, heavily sugared, fairly loose.

Look at the bright side to the [[KOL]] debacle: Santa Claus can afford to give coal to rotten kids again. My guess, Santa is a hardcore coal bear. He’s probably selling James River Coal Company [[JRCC]] short, as we speak.

Now listen me to and quit picking your nose: the commodity sector might bounce today. If the Fed is all dovish and shit, because they think oil is dead; oil will get up and punch them right in the nose—sending energy related stocks up.

However, the trend is broken, so betting on commodities here is equal to lotto.

I like lotto. As a result, I am buying more Agrium Inc. (USA) [[AGU]] here, down $1.25.

Bottom line: expect trickery and misdirection. I, on the other hand, will occupy myself by eating a grotesquely large bowl of oatmeal.

Top pick: AGU

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11 comments

  1. nik

    someone able to short kol?

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  2. Jakegint

    AGU pierced today. If it can’t get back — and maintain — over $80.60….

    Well, you know.

    _____

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  3. boca

    Brown sugar and cinnamon for that oatmeal will juice the rally.

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  4. j

    And you forgot to mention to buy banks and a couple of airline stocks, Fly. Banks are heading higher and so are airlines. Get used to it (just kidding).

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  5. Juice

    fm MV –

    Bennet Sedacca

    10:05:40 AM

    No positions in stocks mentioned.

    Get ready…

    …For a wave of preferred stock issuance.

    Slowly, yields from the like of Citi (C), Lehman (LEH), etc. are shrinking in the preferred stock space.

    Why they are is beyond me but that’s not up to me. There was a large hedge fund, Fore Research, that was using preferred as a financing mechanism for putting on risk. Why someone would do an infinite duration security with credit risk is beyond me.

    But expect a wave of issuance.

    Sell when you can. Not when you have to.

    And they will.

    And I wouldn’t touch it with a 10 foot pole.

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  6. the mexican

    If you like Lotto, buy Sirius.

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  7. Jakegint

    AGU well below the .38 Special ($79.25).

    Stop hatin’ & start sellin’.

    _

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  8. Aris

    i really don’t know what to make of this market.

    ‘global growth is slowing – sell commodiites’ (sounds good)

    ‘global growth is slowing – sell gold’ (sounds good)

    ‘global growth is slowing – buy banks’ (huh?)

    i honestly need somebody to help me understand why the world is ‘slowing’, but people are buying banks. is there just nothing else to buy? is the idea of the world slowing not true. these banks have negative growth. isn’t that bad?

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  9. Juice

    Cramer vs. Kass: Getting Sentimental
    By Jim Cramer and Doug Kass
    Staff Reporters
    8/5/2008 10:54 AM EDT
    URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/newsanalysis/investing/10431901.html

    Jim Cramer and Doug Kass debate the direction of the market.

    Jim Cramer
    Path of Least Resistance? Down
    8/4/2008 2:41 PM EDT

    This blog post originally appeared on RealMoney on Aug. 4.

    We are in free-fire zone for anything cyclical, anything with any economic exposure. That’s because market participants are trying to beat a recession and have ZERO exposure to the economy, and in the hedge fund case be aggressively short the economy through anything with any points to it.

    I say “points to it” because it is too juicy not to be short, say, U.S. Steel (X) or any rail. I couldn’t believe the upticks that Barron’s gave you with its recommendation of perhaps the most extended group out there now that oil and gas has collapsed.

    At times like this, you can take on any cyclical company that could suffer from the endless “demand destruction” cliché that everyone thinks is happening. I am not disagreeing with any of this. This is the first recession we have had where hedge funds are dominant players in the market, and they have to show they know how to play the downside — it is so easy to knock these companies over it is amazing.

    But it is open-field running, because the buybacks aren’t working, there is very little dividend protection among the commodity plays (not that the dividend of, say, an AT&T (T) matters, because the quarter was perceived to be of such low quality) and there is simply no reason to own anything right now. There are no takeovers, as people think there is no financing to do anything. There are no stock-for-stock deals, because the companies don’t believe their stocks should be given away down here.

    So what happens? We have to go back to being radically oversold before these stocks stop going down, and we are nowhere near that. It is easy right now to say, “There is no hope.”

    I would rather say, “There is a trade coming up to the long side after we go down a lot, but right now the short side is the easy side.”

    At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.

    Doug Kass
    The Anti-Cramer, Part Deux: Game On!
    8/5/2008 10:08 AM EDT

    This blog post originally appeared on RealMoney Silver on Aug. 5.

    Right now, I find myself again at the polar opposite of bearish Jim “El Capitan” Cramer.

    Indeed, I expect that, sometime over the next several weeks, we could have an up 3% daily move in the indices.

    The short table is crowded by a lot of amateurs now, from my perch.

    And ignoring the schmeissing in the price of oil (something I always have thought of as crucial to the bullish case) could be harmful to your financial health.

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  10. Jakegint

    Ah, to not be an amateur, but a “professional” like Doug Kass, so I could take a beating being short banks for months only to reverse and go long financials in the worst downdraft in that sector in the last 20 years.

    I guess “professional” = “lacking in humility.”

    Asstard.

    __

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  11. Gregory

    That is quite some short covering rally in SHLD. Crazy.

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