I hate this shit sometimes. It’s days like this that makes my blood boil and cause my temper to rage out of control.
I just want to get plugged back into the matrix. I want to drink wine, eat a few dozen rib eyes (heavily salted) and throw shit at my trader/servant.
Instead, I get to deal with this motherless whore of a market. Up and down, up and down, when it stops you get fucked by a clown.
Sure, the commodities got busted out; but that’s it bucko. The last oasis has been carpet bombed by assholes in a Federal Reserve A-10 warthog.
My bottom fishing into Agrium Inc. (USA) [[AGU]] proved to be somewhat fruitful, with most of my shares getting printed below $78. Also, I enjoyed big gains in [[FXP]] , [[SKF]] , [[SRS]] , [[DUG]] , [[TWM]] and short Vulcan Materials Company [[VMC]] .
My TCF Financial Corporation [[TCB]] short enjoyed a little green. I’ll kill that bitch after I’m done with my AGU trade.
I cannot stress to you enough how cataclysmic this commodity debacle is for the financial industry. Recently, a whole slew of pensions and asset managers upped their weightings in commodities, only to be fucked like a dog a few months later.
That’s it. It’s all over.
Go enjoy your bank stocks. I’ll be in Romania, tending to my mountain goats, while practicing my rock throwing accuracy.
NOTE: For the day I was up 1.44%.
NOTE II: Because I’ve been all over the road, tonight I will post my top 10 holdings.
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Fly, I’m a wee bit worried here.
You were Right on Ag’s but SMN was the Wrong vehicle.
You were Right on China but FXP was the Wrong vehicle.
You were Right on the Banks but SKF is not the Right vehicle anymore is it?
The year is not over.
FXP will print $120, before I am done.
I had a great run in SKF and SMN, making money in both.
I lost $$ in my second SMN trade, not first.
Finally: fuck you.
Bove says the “banks are too cheap.”
I wish this thing would just crash already so we can get this dick teasing out of the way.
Bove does not “say” banks are too cheap, he “pleads” it.
Fucker.
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I was stopped out of that bitch AGU this morning at 84.50, I re-entered at 77.75. I am building a fucking bunker over here and preparing for nuclear war. FXP is my biggest position too followed by SKF and V.
Asshat of the week goes to John Thain
Gappy, why are you long AGU?
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i love that all the pension funds like fucking calpers put billions into commodities at the top. fucking clowns.
holy shit – thain just gave the bolo yeung stare to the camera.
My conspiracy theory of the day: The commodity stocks were sold because the FED sent a memo over the weekend to the “boyz” (GS,MER,LEH,etc.) to sell them because they will raise rates tomorrow which will strengthen the dollar.
You were up and complain!!!??? I try to buy something that is moving and take a quick profit – see some green somewhere. According to the history, the market is either going to be a bear cub or something much worse – the verdict is supposed to be in soon – either another big leg down or the worst is over. A Wall St. broker under investigation moved to his native Bulgaria – is Bulgaria near Rumania?
Jeff Mackey rules!!! Fuck you if you think he doesn’t.
Jake, Ag is not going away. I believe at this level AGU has pulled back to a decent risk/reward setup. I also believe all of this “Global Climate Gayness” talk will put more demand on using less acres per crop which require better nutrients for the land that crops are grown on. AGU should provide this. Also note I have been trading around this name for some time now, however I switch positions more than a trailer park whore in this bitch.
Gappy (and Fly): I’ve got AGU’s “long term” 38% line at $79.25. Next stop the short term 50% at $75.10.
Watch that level.
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All your big pharma r belong to us, except BSX.
Scum,
I dunno, Puffeezer looks pretty “aiight” to me right now.
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tidbits fm MV –
Reuters says…
Lehman (LEH) may be forced to sell assets , a la Merrill (MER), at a huge discount. This would then make it sell equity.
They can’t sell debt, they can’t sell preferred. Too expensive.
So get ready for a large loss, a large equity raise.
All from a company that said it was well capitalized and announced a share buyback a year ago at 60.
All is not…well…in crredit
In regional bank land, the credit market is speaking and it’s speaking loud and clear. Deals that got done in the April-May time frame at +300 are now +600. Ouch.
Below are some examples:
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Fifth Third (FITB) +650
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Keycorp (KEY) +750
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Marshall & Ilsley (MI) +550
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Regions Financial (RF) + 575
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Sovereign Bancorp (SOV) + 650
The window is shut folks. So before you believe everything is OK, check with the credit market. It has thumbs down.
Greetings!!!
…From South Carolina, no, Montana, no Ireland… I mean hot, humid Orlando.
I just took a quick look on Bloomie for the total amount of write-downs since the Credit Crisis began.
We are closing in on half a trillion dollars. yep trillion.
Leading the charge are Citi (C) and Merrill (MER) with 54.6 and 51.8 billion respectively.
The amazing part is that a year ago, Merrill only had $42 billion in shareholder capital.
The point here is that yes, they were able to sell a bunch of stock at $22 to stay alive, the next round, could be a blow that lands them in the arms of another institution, likely a commercial bank.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/531-FLASH-Now-We-Know-There-WAS-A-Threat.html
FLASH: Now We Know – There WAS A Threat
Remember when I said that I believed that Asian Central Banks had threatened Paulson regarding Freddie and Fannie?
Here ‘ya go:
“Concerns about the financial health of the biggest U.S. mortgage finance company had driven Fannie Mae’s borrowing costs to the highest since March the previous week and its shares had tumbled 45 percent on the New York Stock Exchange. Investors in Asia, the biggest foreign owners of Fannie Mae’s $3 trillion of bonds, were asking the Treasury to bolster the government- sponsored company and its smaller competitor, Freddie Mac, said three people with knowledge of the talks.”
Don’t you think the American People deserved to know BEFORE our government signed over $800 billion of taxpayer money that FOREIGN INVESTORS AND CENTRAL BANKS – THAT IS, FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS – effectively BLACKMAILED our government?
Are you prepared to sit on your ass while FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS dictate what our government does, to the tune of $800 billion United States Dollars we do not have, constituting a personal debt of about $2,200 per person in The United States?
That’s right folks – every man, woman and child had extorted from them $2,200 (or nearly $10,000 per family of four!) plus interest (forever, since we will never pay this debt down) and you weren’t even told that it happened until AFTER the bill was signed into law by President Bush.
Angry yet?
Angry enough to DEMAND that this bill be rescinded, and take every (lawful) action available to you as a United States citizen until it is?
If not now, then when will you insist our government NOT respond to blackmail by foreign interests – especially when they do so without telling you first?
By the way, having gotten away with it once, they will do so again. $10,000 per family is, in fact, quite cheap compared to what’s coming.
You heard it here first.
Ready to get on the phone RIGHT NOW to Congress and DEMAND that this bill be rescinded? No?
Then take your accumulated wealth and earnings capacity – all of it – and kiss it goodbye. Your government is no longer standing in protection of our own economic sovereignty.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/530-Credit-Tsunami-Approaches-Shore……html
At the beginning of the year I predicted we would hit 1220 in the SPX before the end of the year. We got down to 1200.
I now expect a three digit handle on the SPX within the next six to twelve months, with a 75% probability (three out of four) that we see it before the election.
Hello Jakegint,
You may likey, but PFE not for me. Mebbe in a few months I give her another look-see. 🙂
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P.S.: I love the Denninger nouveau-outrage. Every week a new revelation. Did he just fall off the turnip truck or something? Foreign interests and China specifically has pwned the US .gubmint for decades.
Speaking of matrix:
Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. (Nasdaq: HALO), a biopharmaceutical company developing and commercializing products targeting the extracellular matrix, today announced the presentation of positive pre-clinical animal efficacy data for its pegylated-rHuPH20 enzyme (PEGPH20) at the American Association for Cancer Research (AACR) Translational Cancer Medicine meeting in Monterey, CA. The study showed that treatment of hormone resistant human prostate cancer in tumor bearing mouse models with intravenous PEGPH20 in combination with the chemotherapeutic drugs, docetaxel (Taxotere(R)) or liposomal doxorubicin (Doxil(R)) resulted in a substantial increase in anti-tumor activity… [link]
none of the ag stocks have broken their long term trend lines. NONE. macke, eh.
if its financial armageddon ask yourself why then is the XLF tape firm…same with the homies….listen to the tape not the news
Fly, i’ve been following your site for a while and consider you an excellent trader. have you ever experienced large losses? the kind of losses that seriously inhibit your willingness to take risk or establish medium term positions? if so, how did you dig yourself out? thanks
anjing–
glad you fleshed out that little gem of reality….look at the tape, and ignore the news. Good word of advice.
I’m doin’ my best, ova heah.
thx AD….the drop in the USO mid morning was quite the surprise…all the clients who loaded up on POT on Friday are freaking out today…it was a holiday up here in Ontario so lots of PM’s were away from their offices today…we had a quiet day on the desk….
^great advice.
Okay, new reader/investor here who likes your writing and the parts I can understand.
Dumb question time: Are you day-trading these stocks? Buying for short holds? Buying on option? Some of us newer readers might gain a little more insight with a little more info.
I fully expect to be told to fuck off, but I thought I would ask anyway.
fly, in one post you say your AGU position is “minimal”, yet when you posted your top 10 positions, it’s #3. Which is it? Minimal or HUGE?