The quarter ends on Monday. Most “smart people” that I know are buying here, anticipating a bump next week.
I, on the other hand, have decided to take the opposite position.
The morons who manage billions of dollars will blow out of their non-energy positions, and load up on stocks like [[RIG]], come Monday.
Trading on this theme allows me to hold firm here, refusing to cover my shorts, denying the bulls respite.
As always, I offer them the “black flag.”
During this weekend, I intend to enjoy myself, poolside, sipping (not guzzling), on some “rich man’s whiskey.”
My top picks going into next week are as follows:
Long RIG, [[FTK]], [[ARD]], [[PCZ]], [[REW]] and [[TWM]].
Short [[FMBI]], [[WFSL]], [[PACW]], [[HRB]], [[LFC]] and [[TCB]].
Stay tuned for more egregious “Fly” wins.
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Hey fat ass,
You still shorting NASDAQ?
Monday should be interesting…We haven’t nowhere near reached capitulation; All those CNBC people are expecting further downside to go; contrary indicator?
Have a good weekend all,
I think HRB puts are going to blow up into our faces. I am in too heavy into Aug 20 puts. Let’s take this sucker to 10. if not, I would have nothing inmy account.
New lows outpace new highs by 20 to 1: New 52-week highs trading
over 100K shares (average daily volume) include: Oil & Gas (ATW, BPT,
BTE, BZP, CHQ, GDP, HERO, HUSA, KEG, UPL, WFT, XCO) and Steel (ALJJ,
RS)… New 52-week lows trading over 100K shares (average daily
volume) include: Aerospace/Defense (AIR, BA, BEAV, ERJ, GR, HEI, NOC,
SPR, TGI, UTX), Airlines (AAI, ALK, CAL, CPA, GOL, LCC, PNCL, SKYW,
ZNH), Auto Related (ACW, ARGN, AXL, DAI, DAN, JCI, MGA, OSK, TEN,
TTM, VC), Banks (ASBC, BAC, BPOP, CACB, CBON, DB, FFBC, FNB, HAFC,
HDB, HNBC, HRZB, IBN, IFC, OSBC, PCBC, PFBC, RNST, UCBI, WFC, WL),
Chemicals (HUN, ICOC, LNDC, OMG, PENX, PPG, SHW), Casinos (ASCA, BYD,
LVS, MCRI, MGM, MNTG, WYNN), Food (CAG, HAIN, HSY, KFT, LANC, RAH,
SJM, SLE, UL, UN, WFMI), Financials (ACF, AMP, AXP, C, EBIG, ITG,
JPM, LM, MER, NDAQ, NYX, PJC), Insurance (AIG, AXA, AXS, CINF, EHTH,
ENH, FAF, GNW, HCC, HMN, LFG, MBI, MIG, MRH, MTG, MXGL, PFG, PMI,
PNX, PRU, PUK, RDN, RE, RGA, SCA, SLF, STC, UFCS, UTR, XL),
Publishing (AHC, GCI, GHS, LEE, MNI, PRM, RHD), REITs (ABR, AHT, BEE,
CIM, CT, DRH, FCH, FR, GKK, HPT, HST, HT, JRT, LHO, PPS), Retail
(AEO, AN, ANF, BBI, BBW, BGFV, BJRI, BKS, CAB, CBK, CPWM, DDS, DKS,
DPZ, INT, JMBA, KCP, LIZ, M, OMX, ORLY, PSUN, RKLC, RSH, RT, RUSHA,
SCSS, SONC, THI, TWB) and Telecom (BT, IDT, MOT, MRVC, NSR, NTGR,
OTE, PAET, QXM, SOAP, SVVS, T, TEO, TLAB, TLK, VOIC).
CNBC should shut the f*ck up. These puts were KILLIN’ it up until they released an article “Dow moves into bear territory.” Apparently they missed the memo a few weeks ago.
Fly, people going to be dumping the regional banks? Specifically, I want STT to get shit all over, I don’t care why. I’m I being too optimistic in the short term?
aristotle. Why you think HRB puts are a no go? They are also involved in a massive lawsuit right now… I don’t see much upside in this one or the chart.
CC, generally big money starts dumping way early if there is bad news underneath. I don’t see that in HRB yet. all the bad news/speculation is already out there in the market. nothing seems to affect them so far.
HRB pre-poned their call and results to market open now. confession time?
FLY-
you planning on holding that HRB short thru earnings?
it’s not a choice anymore IHY. HRB preponed their call already to market open
Remain calm. All is well.
http://bp0.blogger.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SGSs9KHe5II/AAAAAAAAC2w/BtmJLbznYKA/s1600-h/financial-experts.png
By a Keith Taylor, via Mish.
I told someone that my investing theme was “Long Energy, Short Everything Else, Especially Tech”.
Acronym: LESEEET
I was thinking… my dad happens to be a “robust” eater, and that’s the same sound he makes before tucking into a massive Thanksgiving feast… usually accompanied by gleeful rubbing of hands and smacking of lips.
Coincidence? I think not.
Next week, plan to feast on the souls of the longs. Let’s eat, fuckers!
fuck this
http://www.webofdebt.com/articles/banking-bailout.php
anyone know a way to get short high yield debt?
Is there any kind of ETF or something?
Fly,
Thanks for putting the time into a highly intelligent and sometimes humorous blog.
Actually, humor is highly necessary (like caffeine) for any sane person to get thru each and every day IMHO.
Do you have an opinion on ATW?
Thanks,
sc
Judging by the volume in some energy stocks, the “morons who manage billions of dollars” already started their window dressing. ie. ROSE, MUR, WLL, WRES
ah.. you are looking for junk? short JNK.
I am mostly cash, except for a short in bidu, csgp and rick. that’s so if the market opens three hundred down on Monday, I will not be punching things. getting fucked by the cable hurt today. that is a dead currency walking, those soccer hooligans are deeper in debt than we are. this is why I do not bet that this is the last death act of the dollar. gbp has to die first. additionally, sewer trouts pot and mos are at it again, as is crm. all will fold when it’s time to die. I hate not keeping a short on the casinos, would any turdass care to please bid them up again first.
“We haven’t nowhere near reached capitulation…”
Big Mike- they let you GRADUATE from Bloomington?
LOL- thanks for the list.
jake – you have a busy day today? missed your witticisms.
Looking for some big brains out there – looks like two blocks trades executed in the last minutes of trading today in GU – 177,000 and 285,000 came right before close of market – anyone got any thoughts – maybe this was Cajun loading up 🙂 – I know GU is doing a secondary but….
Ron Paul is a smart man. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7354M1QmGYQ
Very smart man. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEm03U7eXTw&feature=related
Crude, I am right there with you on RP .. unfortunately, thus far, his no nonsense common sense gets buried by the political machine, mass media machine, special interest groups, status quo machine, etc. Only when things get bad enough, mat his voice be heard. And things are heading in that direction, quickly.
Barrons is featuring, yet another socalled ‘money manager’, with lame returns. The fucker has a total return of 11.61 % over the last 5 years. Why does he still have a job? The very definition of egregious.
Complete fuckery.
===============
Northern Trust
Northern Small Cap Value
800-595-9111
………. Total Returns*
……………. 1-Yr 3-Yr 5-Yr
NOSGX ………. -14.09% 4.28% 11.61%
Russ 2000 Val.. -19.32% 2.69% 10.44%
Window dressing has begun. Visa picked up 20 million shares volume in the last 10 minutes of Friday’s session. Most likely the powers be will push and gap that market up on Monday and continue to buy.
GSK still looking good for a buy on this pull back. I got in at 41.80 and James Simons with Renaissance Technologies have added around this area as well.
Tech Sector ready to bounce.
I love this blog, the fly and the characters that inhabit it, but it really can be a fantastic contrarian indicator when the fly along with the peanut gallery get too jubilant in either direction.
Get long SPY, DIA and QQQQ
Short USO.
LONG USO, QID, SDS, SMN.
Hey Fly… Cramer now is barred from doing his standard pump_N_dump on stocks with less than $200m in market cap or 100,000 shares daily volume. Apparently this is now a CNBC_wide rule (no idea the morons on fast money are going to pretend to pick winners if they can force a bump on exaggerated volume).
How do we short him? He likes RIG (probably as a result of reading your blog) and is bearish on REW (just bought a bunch of that… like a crackwhore in an alleyway). I think TSCM is cooked given his performance, ‘lest the CNBC Gods realize he’s not the master he claims to be. But what’s the Godly position according to your time machine? I heart delorians.
I agree with “The Contractor”, sort of.
I think 3 week or so rally will commence early this week. He may be right on USO, but I’ll pass and focus elsewhere. I plan to hedge my best shorts with longs, besides oil or gold, starting Monday.
Monday rallies are gay.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bmVa3Rqo_Ys
LOL – where do generate those reports? Great stuff – loving it. Thanks!
IMO, Dow will be sniffing 6000 by Q3 2009; so that probably qualifies me to be one of, if not the biggest bears on the interwebs – however, it won’t get there in one pretty line.
Will be some severe snapback rally’s – one of which I’m predicting starts next week. I also agree with The Contractor that USO is heading doooooooown.
The ultimate trump card in reviving this “official bear market” (thanks CNBC), is by the manipulators/PTB to make $30 to $40 of crude’s price disappear quickly – thus driving the market higher due to the additional discretionary spending benjamins in John Q. Consumer. One-month target of USO is $85 – 90.
I’ve got tight stops on all my inverse etf’s – SKF, SRS, SDS etc; Bought July XLF calls and have even bought July SKF puts EOD yesterday as it was stalling around $152; and I fully expect SKF to be at $105 within 2-weeks time. Which is where I’ll go long again.
Put your money where your mouth is
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/07/07/080707fa_fact_hersh
Boom,
Little bro getting married this weekend in Padadena. It was a good couple of days… be back in Monday.