iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,439 Blog Posts

Oil is Still Your Best Bet

I was correct to cover my shorts yesterday, so far. [[GS]] posted a blowout number, but no one seems to care. Foreign banks, like [[UBS]], [[CS]], [[BCS]], [[IBN]] and [[HDB]], are doing well, while stupid American banks suck wind.

The stupid asshats from Utah, [[ZION]], are giving back all of yesterday’s hard fought gains and more, with the rest of the regional bank space. My initial reaction is to “reapply” short positions and bet on the “hammer of slicing and dicing” to befall on the financials. However, for now, I will be patient and wait for the day to develop.

The two stocks I bought in moderate size, [[UB]] and [[CMA]], are not fairing too badly.

Ag related stocks are gapping higher again. I must say, this is getting more than ridiculous. I haven’t seen such insanity since the dot com era. I know the stocks are supported by strong fundamentals, but so was [[CSCO]] circa 2000.

At the end of the day, in my opinion, the only sector worth betting on are oil service companies, like [[NOV]], [[RIG]] and [[FTK]].

The shippers are gapping higher today, led by big dicked gains in [[GNK]], [[TBSI]], [[EXM]], [[DRYS]], [[DSX]] and [[OSG]]. A lot of people think the sector has bottomed. Look for some follow through, especially if shipping rates improve.

Finally, for a trade, [[CTRP]] looks interesting. The stock has been bloodied in recent weeks and looks “bounceable.” And, I like [[PCZ]], up to $65.

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28 comments

  1. Hybrid

    Nice call to buy the banks douche bag.

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  2. The Fly

    Fuck off. You are still Japan.

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  3. Hybrid

    FLY

    I take that “douche bag” comment back. It does feel good though sometimes to beat the best. Youre the Michael Jordan of this shit….You know what I mean? Every dog ahs his day, and that was mine. You will have many if not all the days going forward and I will go back to being a loser and fucking goats.

    It was my own personal 15 minutes of fame….thats all.

    I appreciate the time you put into this site and keep up the good work.

    hat tip.

    P.S The goat really did leave mud on my helmet

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  4. The Fly

    I am not fairing too badly.

    FXP is down. I sold out

    UB is down 1.7% and CMA is flat.

    ZION is killing me. But I bought very little.

    Thus far, I am down .25% for the day. Should FTK go green, I’ll be up.

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  5. Mud Helmet

    I’m God

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  6. jerff

    Fly, it dawned on me.

    What about the missiles over Tehran trade?

    Bush is going to use an attack on Iraq by Iran as a pretense to blow these fuckers up.

    Question: What happens in the short term when missiles go airborn?

    If I remember right, the market turned up in 03? Seems like it would go down though and gold would spike…

    **EWZ halted

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  7. BOOMER

    Fuck me. DRYS keeps going up. 13 pts in three days. Arg.

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  8. The Fly

    A few things:

    Duc:

    1.You are banned on this site. Any comments left will be deleted. I had enough of your infantile behaviour [sic].

    2. Do not cite markets you have never traded in. You are a rookie trader with little experience. You cannot learn this shit by reading books.

    Carry on.

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  9. Aris

    i always miss the DRYS trade, because i always think i’ll get in lower.

    i bought APA yesterday, which was clearly a sign of me over-trading, and it caught a pump this morning from jimmy c on TSCM, evidently. i guess the lesson is to buy stocks his trust owns, when they’re getting the crap kicked out of them, and wait for the pump.

    that was probably the last bit of pure luck i’ll have for the next 35 years.

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  10. botd

    congrats on willie r. being fire!

    Cheers.

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  11. The Fly

    Thanks. Willie was a bad man.

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  12. Working Man

    Fly

    Why do I have the nuclear bombed collar type feeling that you are on the verge of releasing some absolutely home run stock suggestions? Just a hunch.

    Keep up the good work — and I wish your Mets well — and I hope to see them in the playoffs again against my beloved team.

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  13. Jakegint

    What did the Duck (“I sez”) do/say that demanded not only his banning, but the complete annihalation of all his postings?

    _

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  14. Jakegint

    Where’s that WisCANsin fucker this morning?

    Eating some shit on toast, I expect.

    __

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  15. CubsRock

    Jake, I banked 90 cents in MI. Will get long again soon. Sold my AAPL calls for a double today also.

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  16. Option Addict

    Never underestimate “The stupid asshats from Utah.”

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  17. GWAR

    you must own JRCC

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  18. Jakegint

    WisCANsin — fer craps sake, change your name to GreenBayRox or something like that. Have some state pride. ‘Sides, you are getting Brian Brohm, who will soon make you forget all about that pain pill popper from Mussussupah.

    Interesting that you banked “90 cents” when the stock only moved 83 yesterday, but let’s not quibble over small, infinitismally meager gains.

    I wipe my ass with 90 cents. Hell, five sheets of toilet paper will soon cost 90 cents.

    I won’t have that problem as I plan to be wiping my ass primarily with gilt edged MI stock certs by the end of the year.

    You “get long” soon, now.

    Go Pack (but only if they start Brohm).

    __

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  19. Jakegint

    Whenever I look at JRCC, I feel like that lizard talking about that little kid:

    “Mlplplopjefjgmffx… jumpin’ around all CRAAAAY-ZZAAAAYYY!!”

    ___

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  20. CubsRock

    Jake, please refer to my buy point. I posted them on Ragin’s the other day. It’s not too hard to go back by looking at the timestamp. You seem very mad, did you get squeezed out yesterday and miss today’s selloff?

    Post #20 here:
    http://www.ibankcoin.com/rcblog/index.php/2008/06/12/a-look-at-rimm/#comments

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  21. Jakegint

    Cubs — I’m not a shitty penny trader. I don’t get “squeezed out.” Not by some bullshit one day hopeful hump by a group of perspiring Germanic cheese eaters.

    And I think the word you are looking for is “angry” in this context. “Mad” implies what it’s like to follow JRCC’s questionable rise.

    Not only am I not “very angry” I’m not even “angry,” I’m just not Midwestern milquetoast. You try growing up on Lawn Guyland with a bunch of guido shitkickers and see how you turn out.

    As for my current emotional state — I’m taking great joy in watching the Myocardial Infarction play out to it’s ultimate and well deserved demise.

    Shit banks need to be cleared out, so the healthy ones can spring up and take their place. That’s the law of the jungle.

    Think of it as analogous to Favre’s last INT to seal the deal for my Gints. Time for the old lions to go, so the new ones can get busy on the (frozen) tundra.

    __

    __

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  22. POT To $300

    Idiots like Erin Burnett and Mark Hanes talk about how outrageously expensive the fertilizer stocks are explains why they’re journalists and not managing money.

    POT is no where close to over-valued. There’s a severe shortage of potash and huge demand which gives them enormous pricing power. And the lead time to open a new potash mine is 5-7 years. Keep in mind there are no substitutes for potash. There are only 10-12 “real” potash producers in the world.

    POT is the ideal investment. High barriers to entry; a concentrated, almost oligopolistic industry structure with POT being the biggest player; they sell a product for which there are no substitutes; enormous pricing power; impossible for significant new supply to come online in the short term to threaten pricing. POT will double from here in the next 3-5 years. Guaranteed.

    CSCO has none of those characteristics. There was no shortage of routers during the dotcom stupidity. They could easily increase capacity in a few months. CSCO has no pricing power — in fact it has to constantly decrease average selling prices to remain competitive. There’s widespread competition. Product cycles are very short which requires huge investments in R&D to stay on top and makes substitutes easily available.

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  23. boca

    Jake is firing on all cylinders today!

    *takes cover, gets out machine gun*

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  24. Jakegint

    I would never raise a hand against ye, m’dear.

    ___

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  25. nullpointer

    jake-

    that milquetoast thing we do is an act.

    you know where ed gein and jefferey dahmer are from, right?

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  26. Jakegint

    Yeah, that’s right… and the other dude who dressed up as a clown… Gacy??

    LOL.

    __

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  27. boca

    haha, I like to kid around with you Jake, especially if it seems weapons will be involved.

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