iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
22,010 Blog Posts

How’s That Bottom?

Where are all you bottom callers? Much to your chagrin, “The Fly” is near an all-time high, up about 40%, year to date.

See, you thought I’d lose, didn’t you? Admit it.

You were sitting there, in your bullshit pleather chair from Staples, thinking: “look at this market rip. That Fly guy is an asshole and will lose it all.”

Fast forward one month and I’m punching your head in, like Mike Tyson in a gay bar.

Today, I had egregious gains in [[FXP]], [[SRS]], [[REW]], short [[CHL]], short [[FED]], short [[LAZ]], short [[COWN]] and a variety of other “secret trades.”

Just know this: the market is my bitch. On occasion she runs away, until I back smack her, while exclaiming: “where the fuck is my money, ho”?

Top pick: FTK

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54 comments

  1. mrkcbill

    Fly will be eating 2.5″ Rib Eyes on a bloody down day. Odd No?

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  2. Crude Broker

    Fly why did FTK go from $55 last October down to where it is now? I like your thinking here and would like to buy some size in FTK but not too sure why in the hell it has been beaten up so much over the past year or so. Can’t find any information that far back.

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  3. CAP

    “On occasion she runs away, until I back smack here, while exclaiming: “where the fuck is my money, ho”?”

    until I back smack here ?

    “See, you though I’d lose, didn’t you. Admit it.”

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  4. Woodshedder

    Fly, you were right. Multiple wins for you.

    However, the above post has no less than 2 egregious errors. For that, all you get is your ear bitten. No punching of gays in a bar.

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  5. InternationalGroupie

    until i back smack here ===> until i back smack her ears

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  6. KC Trader

    You think you can smack the market around? Watch out for someone who carries a bigger stick and hits harder.

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  7. Dick Bove's mom
    Dick Bove's mom

    I have not seen Dick in a while.

    If the Jersey mob went long his recommendations, he may be sleeping with the fishes.

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  8. billybull

    fly
    I thought you covered LEH at $32???

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  9. Q4

    Fly’s

    Umbrella

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  10. The Fly

    I meant to write LAZ.

    Corrected.

    Fuck you guys. You’re all hating on a “player.”

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  11. InternationalGroupie

    Fly has snorted LEH multiples times from 45 to 35 and so on..and now he’s found much better stacks to snort.

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  12. The Fly

    I was shorting LEH, up at $64.

    Punch in “LEH” in the quote box and see all posts pertaining to it.

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  13. Crude Broker

    FTK?

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  14. Jakegint

    On occasion she runs away, until I back smack her, while exclaiming: “where the fuck is my money, ho”?

    LOL.

    She’s just lucky there was no jelly punching involved.

    __

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  15. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Great job Fly I must admit I am fucking amazed at how well you are doing.

    On another note I have a big request, a while back you posted a sheet showing the leverage of all of the firms, can you provide me a link to it. I really need it. Thanks!

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  16. The Fly

    They missed numbers, egregiously.

    I suspect it is a combo of incompetence with competition.

    However, the business is still highly profitable and the CEO is 73 years old.

    This is not my research. I trust my source on this one. He loves it.

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  17. Jakegint

    There’s not a much better short in the brokerage universe than LEH right now. It’s only got one stop left, and that’s the lows of $20.15 or so. After that, bon voyagee, Mr. Miyagi.

    _______

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  18. Crude Broker

    Thanks.

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  19. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Fly did you see my question on the leverage sheet you posted previously?

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  20. The Fly

    no time for that. search archives.

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  21. Dick Bove

    Mom, can you please let me back in the house? I promise, no more “sissy talk” from “the little Dick” about buying banks. I need to clean up because a group of punks from iBankCoin threw eggs at me, as I was walking into Burger King for my supper, calling me “eggregious”.

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  22. more morningstar excerpts
    more morningstar excerpts

    Gapping may be interested…
    At the end of the first quarter, Goldman’s gross assets
    stood at 28 times equity, Morgan Stanley’s assets were 31
    times equity and Merrill Lynch’s were 25 times equity.
    While we don’t think it is likely the other banks will reduce
    assets to Lehman’s level of 22 times equity, we do now
    think it is probable that they may rein leverage in to the 25
    times equity level.
    As a result, we are including a probability in our Morgan
    Stanley valuation that it may raise dilutive capital to
    expedite its deleveraging process. Our Merrill Lynch model
    already included the probability the bank may raise new
    equity to offset any future losses

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  23. Danny

    read this pdf G&Y

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  24. larry

    Alias: BPOE

    I love to watch the FLY trade. He is proof that trading is an art. The FLY uses his ability to think 10 times quicker than the average trader. If you can’t think at this speed don’t try to trade all his stock picks. If you are new to trading watch and learn. Don’t try to follow him you will burn!!!!

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  25. alphadawgg

    “Just know this: the market is my bitch. On occasion she runs away, until I back smack her, while exclaiming: “where the fuck is my money, ho”?”

    Funniest line this month.

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  26. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Both good resources Danny and Morning. What I am really looking for is the sheet that Fly posted that showed leverage to equity ratios and total leverage dollar amounts for the top 20 or so firms. I forget when he posted it, maybe 2 months ago or so. My search did not find it but I don’t remember what exactly he said in the text.

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  27. probablynot

    Something tells me you’re full of shit and have in fact lost a crapload of money this year. Of course in your business — the internet persona one, that is — image is everything, so you have no choice but to insist on being 40% up, regardless of whether you are in fact banking coin or being banked.

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  28. The Fly

    Jealous fucker.

    “The Fly” wins even more in real life. Go check the archives.

    Now fuck off.

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  29. DEVILDOG

    I’m luvin this action. My HURC short made 4.5% today that I posted here 2 days ago. Anyone else get in?

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  30. Danny

    raptor, I know you just deleted your comment, but since the glorious post that you linked to NSC is down 1.3%.

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  31. Dinosaur Trader

    Are you happy though?

    I mean, really happy?

    -DT

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  32. BOOMER

    Tyson?! What, are you 40 or something? Next time, please, reference Kimbo Slice.

    My wife shrieked when he busted this guy’s ear open:

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  33. Danny

    kimbo got schooled the other night. schooled in the sense that his fight sucked, not that he lost. dude’s cauliflower ear broke it was the size of a baseball, that’s never a reason to stop a fight.

    I was disappointed.

    most importantly, from wikipedia:

    “Slice currently lives with his family in Miami, and is the father of six children: three girls and three boys. His first two sons are named Kevin, and the third is named Kevlar. His three daughters are named Kassandra, Kiara, & Kevina.[2][15] Slice is engaged.”

    Dude likes his kevins.

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  34. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Fly I cannot thank you enough!!!! If I had your address I would mail you a live chicken, with fucking feed. Thanks!

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  35. Jakegint

    The rich get richer!

    I have very few longs, but this is one of ’em:

    This Bud’s for Jake, mothahfrickas!!

    _______

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  36. Dinosaur Trader

    What’s it with fighters always naming their kids in odd ways? Doesn’t George Foreman have 5 sons names George?

    -DT

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  37. Jakegint

    Danny–

    Being Irish Catholic, I of course have a brother named Kevin.

    Just one, though, out of four.

    Interestingly, none of my brothers are named “Danny,” just an uncle, cousin, brother-in-law, and son.

    _____________

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  38. Jakegint

    DT — I wanna say it’s three sons named George, but he may have had more since I last looked.

    It’s easy on the rememberin’, I guess.

    _______

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  39. InternationalGroupie

    That black guy has a huge beard to hide this chin, excellent idea in street fighting. Ive seen that black guy on some vids last summer, fighting in the streets with his pals who rides the white hummvie.

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  40. "That Black Guy"
    "That Black Guy"

    My name is Kimbo. Or, for you, Sir.

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  41. alphadawgg

    Jake,
    Consider BUD a done deal. Augie Busch is a real party animal and would hop at the chance to cash out of the family bidness, so I’ve heard.

    STELLA! STELLA!

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  42. Gwar

    http://www.americanmustacheinstitute.org

    I heard The Fly applied

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  43. Jakegint

    Alpha, I’ve heard the same thing from St. Louisvillians who went to school with him. A real “lucky sperm club” asshole. How the shareholders of BUD ever let that schmuck become CEO when the family only owns 4% of the stock, I’ll never know.

    Fucker “Ted Kennedy’d” a girl in college, and walked! Now he’s CEO of BUD. Whatta country!

    _______

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  44. alphadawgg

    One of the girls in my office used to be one of his executive “assistants”. She has stories. All you heard is probably true.

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  45. Manny B

    Fly, what do you think of LNN right now? They make energy-saving products and their earnings release is next week.

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  46. Could you imagine
    Could you imagine

    what a day it would be:
    “3:57 PM today: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc Losses accelerate heading into the close of on vague chatter that its capital raising plan (announced Monday) is running into trouble
    – The vague chatter being circulated centers on speculation that funds could renege on the deal before settlement tomorrow.
    – Reminder: The common stock portion of the capital raise plan was priced at $28/shr, and was reportedly oversubscribed.

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  47. Bottom Caller

    Counter trend rally begins tomorrow. Maybe a gap down BSC type open & up from there, would be ideal.

    Look for MSFT to finally get the YHOO deal done by next week.

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  48. Juice

    Krudlow and his regularly scheduled Obama bashing hour, going on now. He finds fault with Obama economic advisers Paul Volcker and Warren Buffett. If those two were responsible for economic policy, we wouldn’t be in the mess we’re currently in.

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  49. Kiwin

    gappingandyapping:

    That and more is available here:
    http://www.occ.treas.gov/deriv/deriv.htm

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  50. BOOMER

    I was once told I my guitar playing is like Brian May’s. At the time I didn’t realize just how high a compliment that was.

    In case anyone has forgotten just how kick ass Queen is…

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  51. BOOMER

    .

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  52. BOOMER

    .

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  53. calvino

    Didn’t he just get his doctorate in astrophysics?

    Kudlow should be a hood ornament in a Mad Max movie. Goldielocks on nitro.

    The bearded rat at the FEd is now calling Gay Geithner to do some lip exercises to buy Lehman tomorrow and put in an intermediate term bottom to a market that has priced in the cdo losses and has definately changed to ne as of tomorrow after they see that the bearded rat is willing to socialize banking. It is a forward looking mechanism, discounting a huge rebound in the second half of the year and the discovery of a Gawahr sized oilfield in Norther Indiana.

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