iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,484 Blog Posts

Don’t Think, Just Buy

When markets get stupid like this, I quit thinking. It’s party time and everyone fucktard with an asshat is invited.

Luckily, I was heavily long energy stocks, going into today’s grindhouse. My losses were to the tune of 1.2%, thanks to the amazing decline in both [[FXP]] and [[SRS]]. Also, my short positions in [[POT]] and [[COWN]] added to my losses.

On the long side, I had “big dicked” gains in [[RIG]], [[PCZ]], [[FTK]], [[CTSH]], [[AAPL]], [[NOV]] and [[QTWW]].

The fascinating thing about today’s tape was that it was bullet proof to a $5+ upside move in crude and credit downgrades of [[ABK]] and [[MBI]]. In short, the bears ran for cover, ahead of tomorrow’s economic data. Which is funny, because the data is likely to be bad.

At any rate, almost every sector spiked, especially retail, energy and ag. Just yesterday, I was bitching about being too hedged and expressed my dismay with minor daily changes in my portfolios. Boy am I glad to be hedged today, indeed.

My game plan is fairly simple, yet succinct:

Wait for a “clown bounce” in the financials, then short them.

Avoid shorting commodity related names, despite their “dot commish” behavior.

Go long energy related names, with inpunity, because, as Guy Adami would say: “they’re cheap on a valuation basis.”

Buy more FXP, under $65.

Buy more SRS, under 80.

Sell some AAPL, above $200.

With the dollar strengthening, add to my Indian IT service plays, which include: CTSH, [[INFY]], [[SAY]], [[WIT]] and [[WNS]].

Never fuck with ethanol stocks again.

Off to coach a baseball game.

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40 comments

  1. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Why do I get the feeling some traders are throwing the fucking towels as they can’t seem to get a handle on this market.

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  2. alphadawgg

    Is it possible the employment, wholesale and consumer credit numbers won’t be as bad? Today seemed to forecast that.

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  3. TraderRenn

    Fly,
    From what we’ve seen lately… no matter how bad the econ report they always report it as “better then expected” blah, blah, blah so news seems to be bullish.
    Like today’s report where we only had 4 business days last week for data and they reported it as better then expected… the fuckers trying to get their unemployment benefits probably couldn’t get through the long lines at the unemployment office because of the short work week and we know .gov never works OT. Also, the fact that discount retailers are doing better is a good indicator and builders are short selling inventories with a 2 for 1 sale? WTF?

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  4. calvino

    AT 2am Isoroku Yamamoto started throwing yen at everything that moved. The oil, the completely fucked housing delinquencies, the lower hours worked.. nothing could stop Isoroku. The Enola Gay would stop him, but we do not do that anymore in the ecumenical states of America. Isoroku will not stop until our industry is destroyed and we become debt slaves. The douchebags on the Street are gladly assisting in the process.

    The tricky Jean speech got leaked, and killer Hank’s friends and family all made the right trades in advance. While we are all used to taking losses, today was different. Today our money was stolen. It would have been no different then your accountant leaving to South America with your check book. Act accordingly.

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  5. alphadawgg

    Where’s the translator for calvino?

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  6. Aris

    i love the chaos right now. oil up almost 6 brings a tear to my eye.

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  7. Jules


    The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the inequities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men……and I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempt to poison and destroy my brothers and you will know I am the Lord when I lay my vengeance upon you

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  8. alphadawgg

    That was a good flick Jules. Reminds me of my younger days. We used to say the same thing.

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  9. Alvari40

    Anyone get the name of that oil infused boot that crushed my fucking skull? OMG, I took a dump this afternoon and swear that an oil derrick came out of my ass. WTF just happened? Nevertheless, I march on with my original thesis of short oil to $115.

    Here are my results today:

    APA Short -4%
    FSLR Short -5.4%
    OIH Short -4.77%
    DUG Long -9.35% (FUCK!)
    SWN Short -3.55%

    DUG June 29 Putts (Hedge) up 125%

    Overall Oil Short change today: -0.5%

    Thank god for hedges with my fucking pea brain theories about oil. Should have picked up those DUG June 30 Putts when I had the chance.

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  10. Uncle Sam

    Sticking with the theme.

    Great Qtr FMCN!

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  11. lokapujya

    why hedge, just have a smaller position.

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  12. Alvari40

    My total downside is defined and limited with the hedge. Upside is unlimited (if I could get the fucking direction right!)

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  13. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    DUG took the biggest shit of anyone today and yet the market took a fucking bath in this expensive oil. I mean look at the egregious move of the airlines on higher oil. WHAT THE FUCK WILLIS!

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  14. PleaseKillMe

    Don’t get faked into this rally. Overall movement is down. I just wished there was an ETF that leveraged on the ultrashorts, for a quadruple inverse.

    BTW, gold blows. It’s only purpose is to make ugly chicks look good. Once we invented beer, then what is the need for gold? It should have gone with the likes of Gary Coleman’s marriage. Oil up 5%, dollar down 2cents, silver up 2%, and gold…unchanged. Haha.

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  15. Q4

    Boo-yah!!!

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  16. ottnott

    I mean look at the egregious move of the airlines on higher oil. WHAT THE FUCK WILLIS!

    The answer is obvious.

    Airlines were up on higher oil, because oil was up less than expected.

    Now that I’ve helped you out with your question, maybe you can answer mine.

    How can it be that all the same money managers and talking heads that have been telling us that sub-prime is contained and that the Fed has calmed irrational fears and aborted the recession are, at the same time, reporting all the negative results as “better than expected.”?

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  17. Q4

    Go Lakers!

    I’ll have you know I have an ergegious amount of coin on the Lakers plus 5 tonight.

    My Vegas bet earlier in the year for the lakers to win it all seems to be wise. At the time it was 10-1.

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  18. Aris

    the talking bookheads are worthless. you’d be better off muting the tv.

    LVLT up 85% in 2 1/2 months. if that doesn’t signal a rodeo gone bad, i don’t know what does.

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  19. haileris

    I’m sorry for the nutjobbery, but I have to raise bullshit conspiracy theory on what happened today. Correlations breaking down like this means shenanigans. I suspect that this is flooding of liquidity into the market to cover the downgrades. Partytime.

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  20. Steve

    Petrodollars flowing into Equities instead of Treasuries?

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  21. Q4

    Broadcom co-founder faces drug, securities charges (all kinds of drugs, prosititutes, death threats, massive options backdating, etc., slipping x into tech executives drinks.) I used to see this guy all the time in his Lambo.

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080605/broadcom_indictment.html

    “… Nicholas smoked so much marijuana during a flight on a private jet between Orange County and Las Vegas that the pilot had to put on an oxygen mask, the indictment states.”

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  22. Jakegint

    Isoroku Yamamoto got his ass kilt in April of ’43, long before the Enola Gay was built.

    I think you need a more historically appropriate Japanese villain.

    Howabout Tojo?

    Or maybe Rodan?

    ___

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  23. Dinosaur Trader

    Ruin some kid’s night. Pull him aside and tell him baseball isn’t his game, and that he should think about doing ballet, or joining the carnival.

    -DT

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  24. Jakegint

    That guy Nicholas is one bad ass 120 mph all-the-fucking-time crazy engineer savant.

    I would think Peruvian Marching Powder would be more his choice laxative, but then again, he probably needs the pot because cocaine flows through his veins via preternatural pancreatic secretions.

    _______

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  25. Jakegint

    Ruin some kid’s night. Pull him aside and tell him baseball isn’t his game, and that he should think about doing ballet, or joining the carnival.

    -DT

    (Shaking head)

    We humiliate asshats and communists here, Asshat Communist, not small children.

    _____

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  26. Danny

    DT, clearly your[sic] a cricket man.

    shameful.

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  27. Danny

    apparently me and jake share the same opinion here

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  28. Jakegint

    The curse of the anal retentive:

    (from Q4’s article, above)

    Nicholas also required his unnamed coconspirators to provide detailed invoices for drugs they sold to him, and used code names such as “party favors” and “refreshments” to conceal what was being sold, prosecutors alleged.

    Detailed invoices! ROFLMAO!

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  29. Q4

    Jake:

    Agreed. Funny shit. He had a warehouse just for his coke, speed, bars, oxy, private rooms for the escorts, etc. 200 mph

    It all began to go downhill for the guy when he was late paying/unpaid some contractors. What were they building? A mansion underneath a mansion. In Southern CA, most homes don’t have a basement area. This guy was developing a labyrinth of caves and a huge sex dungeon under one of his mansions.

    Get the gimp out.

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  30. nullpointer

    to someones earlier point:

    i quit watching CNBC entirely about 6 weeks ago.

    best thing i ever did.

    even though i ~knew~ it was all bullshit, it would have a subtle psychological affect on my thinking.

    patience is the key…that whole “voting mechanism, weighing mechanism” thing will kick in eventually

    down .7% on the day…would have been down 3% if i had not been saved (unbelievably) by FTWR

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  31. Jakegint

    Yeah, can you imagine the cost of putting in a sex dungeon in Laguna Nigel?

    I mean, isn’t that town mostly beach?

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  32. Q4

    Jake:

    I heard he has several homes in the area with his main digs in Newport Coast ($20 mil). Laguna Niguel is okay, prob just his play house. The construction bill was for a couple mil.

    They were calling the sex dungeon “The Ponderosa”. It’s a small world.

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  33. Danny

    that was the best AP article I’ve ever read. Thank you.

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  34. lol

    oil goes up 5% because of an attack? no. Nigerian gangs looting the oil? No. Demand increase? no. Announcement that the Bakken doesn’t exist? No.

    Well that only leaves fear and speculation, no?

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  35. Bennet

    Back in December, I wrote a piece entitled I Don´t Know. My concept was that the world was so odd and so unprecedented that I said I didn´t know what would happen.

    I have to admit that I feel like I have a halfway decent handle on the markets, particularly credit. And trust me, there is exactly zero improvement in the credit markets.

    If yesterday you would have given me today´s headlines and price movements in oil, gas, etc. and asked for where I thought equities, notably rails, retailers, etc. would be, I guess I would have been rather wrong. I would have felt pretty good about my put spreads. But alas, I feel like, well, a moron.

    I know very good traders that are simply getting up and closing positions and walking out of their offices. The cash market, if left alone without futes buying, acts awful.

    Add the persistent bid in e-minis (I when I say persistent I mean persistent), they just drag cash higher.

    And have you noticed that it happens on days with really bad news? Almost like someone is trying to condition investors that no matter how bad things get, the market will rally.

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  36. mollywooly

    Whoa,

    Where am I?

    Reminds me of a wrong turn I once took and ended up in East St. Louis …too freaked out stop, roll down the window and ask directions to get the hell out.

    The best thing to do in these situations is to stomp on the gas and hope no children or puppies get in my way.

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  37. haileris

    I suspect that there is major fuckery going on. And that fuckery is called FASB 159. Because of the downgrade of the monolines, all the corporations which hold *LIABILITIES* with those CDOs, etc. (e.g. many banks) can now *lower the value of their liabilities*. The net result is an increase in equity, as they must mark both assets and liabilities to market if they adopt FASB 159. Guess who was in favor of this rule? Yep, banks rammed it through.

    So bad news is good news for the banks.
    Fuckers.

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  38. Woodshedder

    Molly, I’ve been there, in East St. Louis.

    Haileris, sign up for the PG, and put up a fucking post. That is good stuff you are writing.

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  39. Danny

    haileris – so we’ll back it out.

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