I’m out of here.
No need to wrap up the week. I made Godly trades, putting my year to date gains above 30%.
Do not wonder how I manage to win, with great accuracy.
Just remember, “The Fly” wins all the time, even when he loses.
Top picks: FTK, VSE, short FED, short LEH, short MER.
UPDATE: Merrill on FED
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on TwitterApril results feed rally in FED shares as smaller balance of 30-89 day delinquent loans and deceleration in NPA growth likely drives some shorts to cover.
However, weakness in CA housing market and expectations of climbing credit
losses continue to warrant further discounting of valuations. Risk of increased
regulatory scrutiny remains our largest near-term concern as higher NPA levels
(now at an estimated 67% of core capital) along with the lack of significant
franchise value could prompt a highly dilutive capital raise.Maintain Sell rating
NPAs rise at a slower pace while delinquencies fall
The balance of non-performing loans increased an estimated 11% from Q1 levels.
NPAs now equate to 6.85% of assets vs. 6.20% in Q1 and above our 6.75% Q2
estimate. 30-89 day delinquencies fell 9% to $248M. While the deceleration in
NPA growth and the smaller delinquency levels are positive notes, we caution
investors from viewing this as a turning point for credit as the bulk of recasts are
still well in front of FED. Notably, FED anticipates recasts of $606M in ’08, $685M
in ’09 and $1,690M thereafter. We anticipate that the later recasts will largely be
comprised of the higher risk ’05 and ’06 vintage loans recasting in ’10 and ’11.
Margin compression continues
FED reported an effective net spread for April of 2.80%, 21 bps below March
levels and 5 bps below our Q2 NIM estimate. The decline was driven by a 20 bps
reduction in average loan yields. FED’s average funding cost fell 16 bps as the
balance of higher cost wholesale deposits declined, replaced with more favorably
priced FHLB advances. We are maintaining our NIM expectations for Q2 of 2.85%
as we anticipate FED to gain further funding benefits from lower short-term rates
Indeed. I had a masterful week as well.
Happy Birthday!
enjoy the Birthday Fly.
i will kill all the flies …
ehem…looses [sic]
Some reading for the Fly as he takes his train to the Hamptons.
Shell CEO says record oil not due to shortage
http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKL2232289720080522
Happy Birthday.
Live It Up
Remember Insect; Thou shalt not use my name in vain.
Happy Birthday, still young man.
Remember Jeff, everything is a conspiracy, especially when it appears not to be.
Hey don’t forget that QTWW you threw out there earlier last week. I grabbed some this afternoon.’
I like it.
Have a nice birthday and Memorial Day Weekend.
The whole of it.
Fly, seeing as it’s my birthday this weekend too… if you don’t mind, I’d like to get this summer started with some class.
“Chairman of the Board”-style, if you will. Arguably, his best arrangement. My favorite, at least:
DON’T CLOSE THIS MARKET – I WANT IT 24/7 !!!!- I guess I can try Asia. Look at the recent wheat chart – a classic spike up and now down – maybe oil is going to do it too?
I wish you Happy Birthday “Fly” and I hope you continue to make me money.
Whaddaya know. Merrill’s lazy ass analyst gets a note out three days after I glanced at the 10-Q and gave the same information.
One wonders if perhaps they were waiting to get short before issuing this blast?
Nah!
Perhaps he consulted with Crickets about the “all clear,” and was subsequently confused?
It’s always a possibility.
Read my speech about LEH, and then short some more.
Thanks posting that article!
Damn good week here, too. A bunch of smart fucks around here.
Einhorn,
That piece is freaking incredible. If half of it is true, people are going to jail.
I think I’ll take your advice.
That gal better get her parachute now.
Everyone please form an orderly line. It might take us a little while to get you your dough.
Got me beat I’m only at 22.7% YTD. Short MON. Long SMN. Short SSL. Short SPG.
einhorn is my fucking hero.
Jake– please post some stuff this weekend. I would be interested to get your thoughts on this energy- and commodities crunch and where its taking the country.
Does McCain have a shot? What are the implications of an Obama White House.
I guarantee you Fly will be pulling out the soup line photos again next week. Can you imagine America 2008 actually sacrificing leisure and shopping excursions.
Yo Chief This party is boring as fuck!
I got my striped shirt on and my collar popped even got me a fake 45 year old ID and everything.
Happy Birthday Mr. Fly – you old phuck. I’m fed-x-ing your presents:
1. Superglue – so your old asshat pecker doesn’t fall off.
2. An ear of corn – the shit is worth more than a bar of gold.
3. A pig – Every Chinese phucker on earth will be envious.
4. A cup of wheat – it’ll buy you GOOG, MSFT and AAPL … the whole phucking companies.
5. A Hungarian Chicken – Steve Ballmer’s favorite farm animal.
6. A John Deere Tractor – Drive that big phucker down Wall Street and mow down every old phuck trader too fat to get the hell out of the way.
7. A sheep – the whore’ll lick your balls and make you smile.
8. A vault the size of Bill Clinton’s “eye poked her†list – to store your ego if you ever decide to give that giant phuck a rest.
But don’t count on getting any of this shit. There’s no oil left. George Asswipe Bush stored it all in the SPR on his ranch.
MEDICAL ADVANCES:
A Japanese doctor said, “Medicine in my country is so advanced that we can take a kidney out of one man, put it in another, and have him looking for work in six weeks.”
A German doctor said, “That’s nothing, we can take a lung out of one person, put it in another, and have him looking for work in four weeks.”
A British doctor said, “In my country, medicine is so advanced that we can take half of a heart out of one person, put it in another, and have them both looking for work in two weeks.”
A Texas doctor, not to be outdone said, “You guys are way behind. We took a man with no brains out of Texas, put him in the White House, and now half the country is looking for work.”
I miss our late night chats, like we used to do over at the old blog.
Anyway, we just rented the movie Waterhorse. Great flick for kids.
Boomer??? We are up on this here shiznit until two or tree in the a.m., eastern standard time, most nights. Just not on the weekends…
Pictures from Flys birthday party.
Shed – had no idea. I guess I’m just distracted with work. How are your friends doing? ANy label interest?