The market is always trying to bankrupt its participants. It throws wild fastballs at heads and Chinese nunchucks to nuts.
The reason why I sold my [[SKF]] was simple. If the fucking banks cannot trade down on that [[ABK]] news, when will it?
My stubborn approach of marooning myself on the island of Armageddon has ended.
No longer will I dedicate countless hours to internet rabble, discussing the current state of the housing market or retail sales. It worked for awhile and now it’s bullshit.
Do not take this post as some sort of capitulation. It’s more of a realization of errors and obedience to the market headwinds.
Eventually, the market will trade lower. In the meantime, I need to start making money again.
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Eventually we will all die, and those stupid pieces of paper you call money will be useless.
we die, only to be reborn, stay nimble and make some $! (and help me to do the same as you do with others, please) tip: short SBUX 15.78 – 10.9% missed earnings
Fly we are in a trading range. Look at this chart
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p33341932604
The top of the range is around 13000 and the bottom is 11600. We are a lot closer to the top then the bottom and May is almost here. I don’t think this upside lasts much longer. Are we really going into another bull market in the middle of a serious recession ? We are up over 10% from the lows which is pretty standard during bear markets. The last bear 2000-2002 we saw 6 rallies of 10%.
Hang in there on the short side and there will be lots of money to be made.
UPDATE http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={AAFEC6A5-CFCD-4C7D-84AB-C40010D30944}&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo
Word.
-DT
Anyone want a SBUX?
time to stop playing with inverse ETFs. they are weirding me out lately. I’m working my way out of them all, even if I like the play.
Apple beat. Cool.
AAPL… also trading on crack in the AH
There goes AAPL. Tell us more Arnie.
Bad news is good news and good news is bad news. Got it?
I am going to get a real job. Something that makes sense.
Did AAPL just flip the bird to all the straddle buyers? WTF??? Where’s the kaboom?
AAPL guides lower next qtr., margins went from 35% to 32%. With the run-up the past month, I would guess it’s going lower until the new 3G iPhone hits store in June.
Kaboom. Bitch.
TC – when you figure it out, let us know.
Fuck this noise…… I’m headed to Flint Hills National to play golf for the rest of the week.
Where is Flint Hills National?
Well let me get this straight. The American consumer decided to stop drinking lattes so that they could spend their money on iPhone’s iPods and iMacs.
Now with the high price of gas, the American consumer will sell their cars so that they can use the proceeds on ….you guessed it more iPods, iPhones and iMacs.
With the high price of food, American consumers will give up food and with the money they save, they will spend it buying iPods, iMacs and iPhones.
With the ARM resets, the American consumer will give up their homes . Now with no mortgage payments and electric bills they can spend the extra money on …..you guessed it, more iPods iMacs and iPhones.
Who needs to buy clothes when you can spend the money on iMacs iPhones and iPods.
Soon America is going to be a land of homeless , naked , skinny bums …..who all have iPhones, iMacs and iPods.
I fucking own this stock market. Do you have any idea how hard I get knowing that the entire investing community is on its knees waiting for me to whip it out? FUCK YES! I just shit my pants.
Is there a way to trade Mets money on Forex?
How that for a cutting edge investment idea!
I bet the guy that jumped on AAPL at $170 in the AH is kicking himself now. nothing like losing 11 points in 10 minutes.
reminds me of me and FXP
Didn’t you get the memo? This market has already discounted a mild recession (which is not official yet).
That pain you’re starting to feel is the prospect of a market melt up that keeps slapping you in the balls (tenderly for now).
We’ve spent 3 months building a near term bottom. For you Wm O’Neill fans, doesn’t March – April look like a “cup & handle” for the S&P?
I decide, not you.
Yeah, the market discounted the 2008 recession, but pretty soon we’re going to start discounting the 2010 recovery and pricing in the next 2016 recession. Start cutting rates, fuckers.
AAPL products are now officially consumer staples.
V is cash.
FXP is a proxy for Tibetan loyalists.
It makes perfect sense, drunk or not.
Look at Apple’s numbers…apparently noone is buying ipods anymore:
http://images.apple.com/pr/pdf/q208data_sum.pdf
Oh, and SBUX just warned and is shitting the shower AH. Odd how this non-recession is starting to hit everyone from UPS to SBUX to APPL….
Very simply Mr Fly, the banks are waiting to shit the bed after next weeks FOMC policy statement. Come hell or high water they will not die before then.
Mr. Obvious,
You obviously made that shit up. How dare you use my Excel to perpetrate this lie. Fucker.
burnett is looking good today.
The Fast Money gang are just as annoying as the rest of CNBC now.
Sadly enough, the only programming worthwhile is CNBC Europe.
@ Bernanke, Paulson & Co.
the “cup w/ handle” to which you refer is far too deep, which implies a high probability of failure
additionally, the volume did not dry up at the base of the cup, but rather surged.
fuck you
Thats Dylan’s show….kind of dead energy without him.
Check out Adam’s picture on his recent post….
i quit watching FM about a week ago
the only redeeming things on there, IMO, are carter worth and gartman
Hmm…Anybody notice FXI did not break 200 EMA? I’m going to triple my exposure on FXP tomorrow and sell off on the 50 EMA.
POT earnings tomorrow…%10 to the upside or downside? Tremendous volatility…
FYI: Whoohoo my rice bags went up 2% today…Like taking candy from a baby…
Just bought SBUX @15.70 .. now for 3 cups of latte, you can get one share of the entire declining franchise.
People are gonna see ‘bargain’ tomorrow morning & won’t be able to resist buying SBUX at 5 year lows.
Or, I’ll be wrong and lose money.
Why fuck with FXP, there are better fish to fillet. FXI just broke the neckline of the dreaded reverse head’n shoulders, cock’n balls formation, projecting a target of 180.
Dude, what cracks me up about those Commie stocks is how much revenue comes from equity (stock) investments.
Riddle me this… what happens to supposably legit manufacturing company which generates 30 to 50% of their income from equity investments when the market tanks?
WRONG! Nothing fucking happens, corruption is rampant and you lose…
Game Over! Insert another 100 Yuan
Hey MMX:
I just dug up a picture of your old prom date, have a looksie:
http://www.tonyrogers.com/humor/ghettoprom/ghetto_prom5.jpg
I like the C-Section scar… Just like the strippers in Jersey.
THE FLY TOP!
Fly: Is there a fundamental reason FXP is trading at these levels? I can’t seem to find one myself as the components are becoming over valued I think. Its like people are pricing out a recession all together. By the way a FED rate cut is NOT on its way.
I’m with (with a hedge) Woodshedder….Fly Top (??).
WTF Fly??
Look at SKF/XLF after hours…SKF is around 110. Support at ~99 to 100 has still not broken. Banks are probably fucked.
The market appears to be beautiful at sucking back in the bulls. Why would it go back up any significant amount from here?
FXI/FXP is very interesting. My guess is FXI declines, but we will see. I think I will wait to see if that gap closes. (update: I don’t have any FXP OR FXI at the moment).
-Stealth
PS: Fuck Starbucks! Their coffee is liquid shit…
Get out of FXP, Take yo loss, I did.
FXP has been doing a truly awful job of what it is supposed to be doing – tracking twice the inverse of FXI.
Since the inception of FXP, FXI is down nearly 20%.
FXP, rather than being up nearly 40%, is down nearly 10%.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=6m&s=FXP&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=fxi
That would present a huge opportunity if the mistracking is something that would unwind and correct to the upside. I don’t think that is the case, however. I think FXP simply doesn’t work.
Anyone have any insight into the tracking problem? Is it a matter of paying too much for derivatives related to a high-volatility index?
Ott’s could it be the divvy?
_____________
Fly, you are a fucking dissapointment.
I said it before & I’ll say it agin: Those ultra double reverse ETF’s are designed to go to zero.
DCR is the first in the double trouble short ETF graveyard.
Do you have any doubts that FXP will eventually be zero? It may take a while, but thats where she’s headed. Not that I won’t play it in a month or two.
These double short ETF’s are not investments, they are trading vehicles or hedges, period.
Look at SKF, it’s components are down 90% (I am exaggerating, you dolts) and it’s barely at 110… ambak and mbi down 40/20% today and it goes up 1%? This tells me the etf is either too actively managed, meaning they bought back their shares already or it simply is no longer doing what it is supposed to do. Same with FXP, Ottnott points that it doesn’t negatively correlate to FXI, why? There’s too many unknowns about these ETFs, I think it’s better to just short FXI or UYG, although I don’t think you can fight the commies before the olympics right now.
My gut says it’s not an inefficency that can be unwound. I personally think ETF’s are a horrible short term trading strategy.
An inverse ETF of an Chinese ETF? Could you think of anything more convoluted and less transparent.
One thing comes to mind… Collateralized Debt Obligations!
The only person who can possibly make a fortune on this crap is a MARKET MAKER pocketing the spreads.
Of course the inverse ETFs are for trading/hedging…
Interesting relationship with FXP/FXI. I don’t really care though…if FXI holds, that’s fine one could buy it. If, however it starts to fail, we could see a big gain in FXP.
Same with SKF/XLF…
S
If the double-inverse ETFs are awful, we ought to be able to profit from that situation.
I’m coming around to the view that the d-i-ETFs resemble a pool of money where a portion of the pool is kept constantly invested in put options.
Over time, the premiums will do as Juice states and drive the d-i-ETF toward zero (unless the underlying index goes to zero).
In the short term, high volatility in the underlying index creates large spikes in the d-i-ETF. Momentum trading and panicked hedging add to the move.
So, a d-i-ETF buyer of an upward spike is betting that high volatility doesn’t decrease, that momentum doesn’t dissipate, and that panic doesn’t create an overreaction. All this against the background of a slow drain in the ETF.
With that view, FXP spiking over 120, and SRA and SKF spiking over 140 (was SRS really over 150!) were definite sells, and the next play in them was to sit and watch until they spiked again in one direction or another.
I’m just a spike-detector away from vast wealth.
My time machine reading shows OIH looking just like the peak in GLD/GDX… odd no?
SKF and SRS both moved from around $85-90 in early December to $145-150 in mid January. They both gained around 70% from bottom to top yet the indices they are the 2x inverse of XLF and IYR dropped less than 25%. So the moves in these 2x ETFs are exaggerated in both directions. I suspect once the market starts another leg down SKF SRS and FXP will sky rocket. Back in January these ETFs were gaining $5-10 a day.
Renounce Mr. Mortgage or else Mr. Market will unzip it and give it to you long and hard for the rest of ’08 Fly. You’ve been warned.
even @ $15, SBUX is WAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY overpriced.
have you looked at the financials?
If an inverse ETF of the Nikkei had been created in the late 80’s it probably would’ve been a decent investment at the time.
Jake:
You, Sir, are a disgrace to your country.
if the leveraged etfs are bad, even if only one side, why not short both of them, or buy puts on both. By both I mean ultra long and ultra short…
short dug against short dig…
Wouldn’t you effectivly become the bank and make money, especially in extremes where you have a chance to gain from dcr type liquidation…
and then you can add on your shorts on the spikes before everyone gets out.
FLY: what did your computer do with the”keep score”box of the US, Europe, Asia, Commodities and Futures indexes?