It is hard being a bear. Frankly, “The Fly” is not accustomed to betting on world destruction or “wishing” for doom to strike those who bet against him. However, his superior “calculator brain” tells him “fuck the world, it’s going lower.”
Take a look at [[NOK]], shall we?
How do you want to spin that bad news?
Let me guess:
NOK blows. [[RIMM]] rocks.
Fair enough. That makes sense.
How about the [[MER]] disappointment? Spin that.
Hang on, I’ll do it for you:
It’s a kitchen sink quarter. Soon, they will be writing up those toxic securities, leading to 10’s of billions in balance sheet gains.
Thus, the market should rip higher, again.
Also, a splendid argument.
How about the fact that MER posted a larger writedown on their Alt-a paper (good credit mortgages) than subprime? Does that concern you?
Answer: Fuck no. Just buy a Chinese solar burrito stock and do a few lines of coke.
Anyway, I’m a bit busy here today, dealing with all sorts of tedious issues of business. In the meantime, be sure to bottom dip some bank stocks down here, since the worst is now behind us.
In all seriousness, I will be raising cash today, covering my shorts in [[FED]], [[DSL]] and [[WM]]. With the proceeds, I will redouble my efforts in loser positions.
UPDATE: Mr. Mortgage explains the Alt-A issue:
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmeBSWI9sF8 450 300] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Hmmmm…Fly is making money today.
Means we will likely see 5-7 posts today…
I lost the most money in years yesterday. How many posts did I publish?
Love Mr. Mortgage….Let the truth be told…Gestapo will be after him soon.
Hey, we like it when you post copiously.
Hopefully today will find you anodyne.
Shall I have the ignorant lumber dispossessor shackled to the back of a gnu-cart and have him sold to the gypsies, Sahib?
Love Mr. Mortgage….Let the truth be told…Gestapo will be after him soon.
Hippy, you’d better not be the reason my short in Reynolds Aluminum is going the wrong way…
Woodshedder,
Stop using such lofty words like ‘copiously’ and ‘anodyne’ you thesaurus stealing illiterate peasant. Now get back to work on those charts !
Jake,
How would I be the reason? Mr. PPT might be the 1
CAP, no thesaurus here…those are the only two “smart” words I know.
Get short now guys… I am afraid the Fly has updated his time machine…
How many times must I tell you short schmucks?!
IT’S AN ELECTION YEAR, WE’RE DONE GOING DOWN!!!
Damn.
Shorted HOG at $36.26.
Jake,
How would I be the reason? Mr. PPT might be the 1.
I think you might be artificially propping the price of aluminum with your multiple bids on foil protectorant.
WHAT’S THE BIGGEST HOLDING IN SKF
LEH has arrived at its long term downtrend line at about 42.5 and is having trouble there thus far. Could be a good short here is it cant make it through.
fly’s don’t burn on the grill
maxa,
BAC is the largest holding. see the top 10 here:
http://www.proshares.com/funds/skf.html?Index
http://www.proshares.com/funds/uyg.html?Index
Raider — not coincidentally, $42.37 is the 78.6% fibo retrace for LEH as well.
For every NOK there is an INTC or IBM…for every MER there is a JMP. People expect it…priced in…we need some new crazy bad news to send us downward otherwise we will be considered bottoming….which is bullish and any good news will be considered upward momo as bad news is already priced.
Bulls win again…unless the bearshitters can come up with some new fear mongering….maybe some crap rumors over the audio news for a 10 min spike down. But it won’t last.
People want the market to go higher…it’s human nature. The fear factor is fading.
I was going for a walk yesterday and apparently ran into “The Fly” partaking in questionable “activities”.
2000 was an election year. How’d that work out for you?
(comments won’t nest below this level)
Au:
That a boy. You really should post a little in the PG.
So, INTC is now making handsets? Where can I buy an INTC cellphone?
Interesting final comment in the AP business report on Merrill’s earnings:
Thain also told reporters that although the investment bank does not plan to issue common stock to boost capital, it is open to issuing preferred shares — a move that would not be harmful to investors.
???? Is that final comment Thain’s or the idiot business reporter’s?
I hope the latter, or I fear Merrill’s got an innumerate at the helm.
Frenchie — the fear factor fading is a good thing in a crappy economic environment. You want bulls to be fat and happy as the ball scimitar comes slashing down.
And Frenchie, what the flue is this?
For every NOK there is an INTC or IBM…for every MER there is a JMP.
Were you maybe talking about JP Morgan (JPM?)– down 30 cents as we speak?
(Merrill is up a buck, btw).
snoooorkkkk. mmmm good blow this is.
Are stocks really going to crash in a negative interest rate environment? I doubt it. Real returns may be negative when looking back years later but if bad news is no longer is bad, what is going to push us lower?
steve-
i agree, the market is not going to crash
i think fly’s thesis of “death by 1000 paper cuts” is what will drive us lower.
consumer slows even further, unemployement continues to rise, other consumer debt (credit cards, auto loans) defaults increase, commercial real estate tanks…etc etc
sooner or later, reality will be reflected in the market
IMO, it will be a long, slow grind downward
I’m not French you retards…AU CONTRAIR speaks to taking the other side of things. But most of you internet retards only know “Engwrish”.
At the risk of sounding like J.J…..I’m comparing companies that have impact, some are reporting well, some are not….banks the same, the bad news is out there, some report a bit worse some a bit better.
Back to trading.
Au Contrair… we know. Just yanking your chain. But please don’t channel JJ man, I can only take so much.
I’m actually mad I missed the bounce in SWC and PAL. Because J.J. had plastered into my head, I refused to buy them.
I’m typing in jest half the time too. No worries on this end.
1. Who the fuck is gespato
2. Hearing CREDIBLE chatter from friends in the eurodollar pit LEH is going to be offering 10-yrs at 320-350 over T’s. Several billion.
Hey Steve,
Try ALT- A …then try no profits for banks for 10 yrs…inflation, wage pressures, negative savings rate, higher default rates. Take your picks.
Hey Mr. Mortgage,
just a joke…They are the suede denim secret police. You know when some when tells the truth too much they suddenly end up in a mysterious plane crash.
Hey AUfrenchie,
JPM is leveraged 74:1…Great postion to be in during a credit crunch. They have over 20 derivative positions waitng to blow up. Good luck!
GW with summertime approaching don’t you have a good “gespato soup” recipe.
By the way where have the recipes been?
GW-
Understood. Now, can you tell me something the market doesn’t know?
Steve if you have a terminal sickenss. Do you spend your last days on earth crying and feeling despair?
No you hope for the best and look for every silver lining. Fact is your probability of death is not going to change. The market is not aware of the greenback outcome and that potentiallly inflation will become so great that all corporate profits take a hike for quite some time to come. I don’t know to tell you the truth. That is why I’m market neutral most of the time.
Mrkcbill,
Gespatzo soup is to easy for me to give you a recipe on. I have been lazy with the recipes as of late. I will try to delite your palates soon.
Peace
Green.. HSBC is more leveraged.. however JPM is a second.
Hello. And Bye.