The leech wrote:
Guys can I get an honest answer here, no bullshit.
At what price would you really be worried about oil and gas prices? What will crush the consumer? Bull or Bear I would like to know. Thanks!
Fly Response:
No price worries “The Fly.” Actually, like I said before, I hope and pray to God every night, false and real, that oil “super spikes” to $400 per barrel, in order to alleviate traffic in NYC.
“The Fly” looks forward to discussing these matters, and more, in the near future.
Another leech wrote:
At what point does Uncle Ben start defending the dollar?
Fly Response: When oil is at $400 per barrel. Weak dollars make it easy for us to sell our tanks to Egypt.
NOTE: China is down another 2.6% 4.5% in early trade. Is anyone paying attention to this debacle? Anyone?
Back to sharpening my knife.
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Next question: At what point does Uncle Ben start defending the dollar?
This explains why the Fly has that tile up instead of a granite back splash.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080417/us_nm/lehman_lawsuit_dc
The Fast Money crew is saying to buy financials/XLF because its all baked in. That they ‘act well’ in the face of horrid news.
So beware the wise guy/lemmings/Costanza trade is on.
Uncle Ben will not defend the dollar. Dollar depreciation is a natural outcome of the so-called “free trade” policies of the last 20 years.
The IMF will sell gold and buy dollars. The weak dollar is fucking everyone, not just us.
Ok ok I guess I have been called worse things but why didn’t you post my calculation of Joey Doughnuts income vs. transportation cost! Joey is losing fucking 40% of his income on transportation to work and taxes alone! This has to be sucking this man dry. By the way can’t you atleast write:
gappingandyapping wrote:
Instead of “The Leech Wrote:”
Oil will go to $200.
Gas to $7
…and you will still pull in and fill it up.
New paradigm – tough shit for everybody.
Akbar: Do Allah’s goats piss oil?
granite backsplashes are gaudy.
Gary has a perfect graph to explain why flux is right on the whole “defending the dollar”
http://bp2.blogger.com/_V7Pddp58Py0/SAdX-AMJQZI/AAAAAAAABAg/KwFAWkutdT8/s400/spxdollar.png
Hey Leech,
Enough is enough when all the blood has been sucked out of you. That will be $150 oil and $6 gas. This would be similar to the 1970’s and taking into account for dollar depreciation.
What is fair value for cube futures?
I know ISRG shit the bed, but I thought with GOOG the fut’s would be up a lot more.
Tomorrow is probably an up 100 nasdaq day. Maybe 200!
Gas isn’t too different than cigarettes or booze…people bitch and moan then go buy more…green is right that inflation adjusted oil is $150 for ath and consumers lined up for it…
Fly you should have an underworld such as that on the History channel right now. Pretty cool stuff.
I do have an underworld.
Fly, is this Underworld where you happen to be “sharpening your knife”? If so, I feel for your trader/servant tomorrow, it might be a bad day.
If it helps, I’m in a totally foul mood because I did not have sufficient ESP to buy GOOG calls before earnings.
Although the futures are kind of low… odd.
fair value is around 1842-1844
Tomorrow is probably an up 100 nasdaq day. Maybe 200!
You must be high.
China knifing.
Fuck you naked call sellers, you’re dead.
the market will do it’s usual fuckyu for expecting anything… maybe tomorrow people start worrying that commodities are out of control and interest rates will head up, too. Good earnings and free money don’t coexist. good news will be bad news, why not. where’s mr. inverse-logic tonight with some deep analysis?
Where is that gas station on the front page located? Is that part of our employee benefit package?
Fly,
Nice call on China.
What’s a good natty play for the rest of the year?
I’m listening to T Boone: US spending $600 billion per yr for foreign oil. (4x the cost of the Iraq war)
He says natty eventually 9.5 to 12-14
This economy is fucked up.
Who the hell is in charge of this shit?
Miraculously, I bought in GOPDW today.
Fry, how many times I tiew you to not fluck awaond wit FXP. Dat is asshaterly.
China not debacre. Mahket jes lesting, den go higha effectibry de-barring you.
What is the air-speed velocity of an unladen swallow?
http://www.billcara.com/archives/2008/04/daily_report_for_thu_apr_17_20.html#more
Bill Cara has issued a chilling daily report.
April 17, 2008
Daily Report for Thu, Apr 17, 2008
Markets Re-cap
I cannot in good conscience give a Daily Report other than to state there is a crisis in global financial markets that is not readily transparent to the public. In fact the truth is being withheld by the people in whom the public has placed their ultimate trust in money, their finance ministers and central bankers. I fear that Mom & Pop are about to lose trillions.
Comments & Outlook
The $USD continues to sink and commodity prices are on the rise again today. For those of you who are long gold because of the destruction you see happening to the USD, I worry that you have made a grave timing mistake if you have any margin against your positions. At some point, your margin will be called.
I have repeatedly opined here that the economic and financial problems of the world are not contained to America. Inflation in countries like China and Russia, among so many others, is very high. The US data is alarming.
The fact is that, without higher employment, income or savings levels, consumers can no longer pay these high prices. Corporations no longer have pricing power and are facing lower orders as well as higher costs, leading to more lay-offs. The rate of unemployment is growing in almost every country.
As economies slow and shrink, taxation falls and yet expenditures are not falling, and so deficits are rising. Social programs are failing. Food riots have broken out in many countries.
The next shoe to drop, in my view, will come when British, European and Japanese banks admit to the same $1 trillion in write-downs that American banks will make before this crisis is ended.
In fact the very word ‘write-down’ is an insult to our intelligence.
Without a write-off, these terminally ill assets are staying on the books so that Liar Bankers can have Mom & Pop believe there is a hope of recovery. When people and companies disappear, and no one wants to or is able to buy foreclosed assets, those assets should be written off, not down. However, a write-off would sink the capital of many banks under the reserve requirements, making it insolvent. Governments will then be required to bail out those banks because no other banker has sufficient financial strength to take on the liabilities of banks the size of Northern Rock, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, Wachovia…
Here is the problem in a nutshell. It’s called the deposit multiplier in reverse. For every trillion dollars in write-offs, many trillions of ‘money’ is destroyed. Bankers, then, cannot meet their obligations to depositors who demand the return of their money. This discussion at Wiki, particularly the tables, may help you understand the problem.
Taking in the big picture, I think the world has reached a crisis not dissimilar to 1929-1932. The G-7 central bankers and finance ministers know it and are keeping the reality from causing a run on banks.
When the banks in the UK, Europe and Japan start to sink, and they will because the problems at Britain’s insolvent (and now nationalized) Northern Rock mortgage bank were not isolated, the Pound, Euro and Yen currencies will sink against the USD, crushing commodity prices, bringing them into line with the ability of Mom & Pop to pay.
At the end of the day, I believe there will never be a case of global stagflation that doesn’t result in a massive destruction of debt and equity capital prices. This time (2007-2009 or longer) is no exception.
Here is the bottom line: Those of you who have broker margin and banker demand loans and short-term loans under say 5 years are at great risk to losing the associated assets unless you quickly pay off those loans or switch them to long-term loans. Long-term loans at low rates are fine to those who, under any possible scenario, will be able to meet the debt service.
If you are a trader, you must be a day trader. Else move your money to a safe place, with a balance of various international currencies and gold.
I recognize that only day-traders, and not all of those even, welcome these words. Most of you will not pay heed to them.
In Wednesday’s Daily Report, I wrote:
Yesterday I commented that not everything is going well, and that is true, but will be resolved shortly. As someone has written, earning a good reputation is hard work and then you have a helluva burden keeping it. I just have to remove a few unnecessary weights, that’s all.
In addition to having an office/residence in Nassau, I am working on having one in Freeport Bahamas as well. Freeport, in fact, is likely to become my headquarters.
Have a great day. I’m here in Toronto where the weather’s almost as nice as Bahamas. I’ll return to Nassau in two weeks, after I complete some business.
Writing today’s report is removing one of those burdens.
I will now also take a few days off. I have asked some of my associates to step in while I take a break for a week: (i) Jack to change the banner to read Cara Community so that this blog continues with or without me (ii) Jim to take over all matters related to publishing (iii) Geoff to handle Cara Trading Advisors clients as we help them move their assets into safe banks, brokers and managed accounts (iv) Jeff to upload a standard blog template for the Community Chat and the Daily Report. In addition, I have important meetings coming up in the next week regarding my future in Bahamas.
Onwards and upwards.
Does this mean that hybrid cars will appreciate in value as oil goes higher?
Did Cara take his meds?
You tell me tinfoil – how many major brokerages did you create, or too busy throwing monkey crap at ET conventions?
This is the way the China bubble ends
This is the way the China bubble ends
This is the way the China bubble ends
Not with a bang, but a whimper…
I have no mouth, yet I must scream.
NQ futures are up about 30 points on 4pm. GOOG news was released immediately after that and the futures continue trading till 4.15pm. The 7-8 points they are up now, reflects gains since 4.15pm.
“I have no mouth and I must scream” – great stuff. One of my best. Let’s see. The markets have been taken over and are controlled by aliens from the Fed. Investors have all been wiped off the face of the planet. The last trader is turned into a soft, slithery blob capable only of sliming his way from monitor to monitor, wondering how it all got so fucked up, unable to close his positions or even throw things at his trader/servant. Desperately hoping for death, knowing the alien Fed will never quite let it happen.
Yeah, maybe I was a financial writer after all.
Doesn’t China know GOOG blew out earnings? I don’t know why they can’t get with the program. They should trust that GOOG can feed their masses. They of little faith.
C earnings, or lack thereof, are now out & out of the way.
Have a drink, buy futures, buy stocks, its the American Way!
Homelessness & global starvation is now fully discounted.
As you were.
Ain’t life el grande.
Oh boy that first line of coke in the morning is the best. Who’s ready to buy stocks today! Time to pump up those futures and buy the banks. I have a fuckload of C that is trucking higher. My GOOG shot its load in AH yesterday. Oil is tanking sending my TSO moon bound.
As I sit here and look at my old friends the inverse ETF’s such as FXP, SKF, SMN, SRS, short WM I can’t help but chuckle at what silliness I was doing trying to fight a FED who will lower rates when inflation is soaring and a FED who will just buy the fucking banks if they are in trouble. What stupidity of me. Guess I learned my fucking lesson.
men of flesh hitch a ride
shorts and tans and greasy thighs
at night drive into slimy bars
and piss it out on our front yards
they’re looking in our window now
real child of hell
nobody’s seen him
real child of hell
nobody knows what shape she takes
st paddy’s day, old irish man
shamrocks painted on his face
mumbles warnings from ireland
in the back i sense a fight
and that old man has done his deed
real child of hell
nobody’s seen him
real child of hell
nobody knows what shape he takes
this stage i’m on gets repossesed
by vigilantes acting bored
the mindless fan wants my dress
and i can’t tell which one is worse
and i can’t see the cursing child
real child of hell
nobody’s seen him real
child of hell
nobody knows what shape she takes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5-YBypMTLA
GOOG nukes da bearse
Very quietly, sneakily, even, this day is the morning to bring some SLW shares into your coffers at the aforementioned “gap fill” price of 16.55 or thereabouts.
Be swift! Now I must be about my late evening tasks of hand dipping beeswax candles for the Master.
Tha bears are running scared, depressions and recession are over,
buy buy buy.
everyone is buying like crazy and MON, MOS, CF, oil, etc. are not showing up to the party. C up 8% on more writedowns and yahoo finance has a front page article on “Executives see credit, housing as threats” (which I think was just recently changed to “Finance Executives.” Are commodities the first roach to leave the party and then equities to follow? Why don’t we gap up, hit major resistance levels then sell the fuck off hard. everyone is blackout drunk buying any stock flashing green.
Just so everyone knows, I’m done packing the boxes of dynamite into the back of the SUV, and I’m now on the road to my local coal fired electric utility plant to drive around the blast furnace with the windows open.
I have a query for Mr. Fly as well:
Why, good sir, is there such a discrepency between the “Shanghai” and the “Hang Seng” indexes?
@ Hmmmmm….
“blackout drunk buying…”
Rofl!
Jake-
just dont go near any major body of water, that would be crazy.
update: GOOG saves planet earth from destruction
no way we go out on the highs today … no way jose
if I was long, I’d be feeding the ducks but I’m net short, so I’ll be doing the quacking & trying to decide what to do .. I’ll still have a bearish bet on over the weekend no matter what
Just one message for today – watch volume to the upside. We are about to break to the downtrend for the Naz futures, S&P futures, and DOW Index. We already broke for the Rus futures. We had stalled all the other times we got here, but this fucking gap looks for real – unless proven otherwise. I have my list and will add longs today if volume on this break supports. We have been waiting for this break since it started to form October last year. With that said, the 200 MA is about to break down below the 500 MA, which is bearish. This is the case for the S&P futures. The Rus 200/500 cross has already happened, so we are in a bearish trend there. This leads me to believe that we suck a lot of bulls in with this break out, thin out the bears, and then have a head fake in the near future. FWIW.
gas prices are shit! Upwards of $4 there’s protests and upwards of 4.5 there’s riots, and above $5 there’s drive by grenading of the gas stations, which will bring gas prices above $5.5 and going to work will become an expense and cost them more than their wage.
Then at $6 we’ll start drilling in Alaska, and find out that Alaska was meant to drill in, and that there’s more oil there then the entire middle east.
Holy shit, some of those GOPDO’s — for sale at the low low low price of fitty fie cent yesterday, just sold for $$35.50!!
That is true casino lottery type shit. Unbelieveable.
Foo —
At $6 gas, I’m moving to Alaska. They’ve got some kind of commie share the wealth kind of thing where everyone in the state gets a check from the oil. It oughtta be a fat check this year….
if china is “knifing down” this fxp that you speak up, fry, is a gay stock.
Juice, I’m not covering my hedges.
Market is overbought, on an expiry day.
Anything could happen, but I think patience is key here, whether you are a bull or a bear.
Yeah Jake I think everyone gets like 2k a year for just living there.
IWM hit major resistance and heading down, no small cap follow through. commodity stocks trying to roll in their kegs. someone call the cops. oh fuck the cops are drunk. there’s a drunk dude in a helicopter above pissing on everyone too.
COF saved by the bull stampede, was actually up a buck or so and is now rolled over.
All turds float when the bearded clam is priming the pump
LEH says no comment? Allow me – the suit is frivolous and without merit – move to dismiss it now.
you got been getting beaten like shit all last month. internet leeches doing better than you. take a break and come back next week.