If you’re surprised by GE‘s monster earnings shortfall, you’re either incredibly naive or simply inexperienced. Remember, when you put 100k of your savings to work, buying a stock, you’re not buying letters and digits. You’re buying a piece of a company.
Whether you like it or not, the U.S. economy is in rapid decline. The financial system is in flux and stock prices are extraordinarily overpriced.
There seems to be some sort of mind control over many money managers, forcing these morons to rush into stocks.
Why?
Take the rosed colored glasses off for a second and recognize what’s going on. If your method of conservative asset management is to just go with any and all trends, I guarantee you will be caught flat footed, many, many times, effectively leaving your bullshit online account at zero. I’d rather be early to a party and enjoy the fresh food and drink, than arrive late and eat stale bread and drink warm beer.
I’m sure many people got wiped out today in [[GE]] April 40 calls, thanks to the fucktarded advice from people like Guy Adami.
This is my advice:
Forget about making quick money, like a casino player. Think big and you will get big. Try to forecast out 3-6 months, then build positions that will benefit from your forecast.
Then bank coin.
With my money, I want to sell short everything under the sun, mainly because U.S. equity prices are way ahead of themselves. More specifically, I like [[SRS]], [[SKF]], short [[FED]], short [[LEH]] and short [[WM]] here.
Ignore GE‘s warnings at your own peril.
No longer developing.
UPDATE: April University of Michigan Sentiment 63.2 vs 69.0 consensus
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A pot of honey for the Bears… now can we shut shut the door on 12700 and move on?
Alias: BPOE
BEEAARR MKT!!! Fucks
and That!
WahMooooooooooooooooo Under 11!!!
Everyone on tv says it’s baked in. Saying that would be saying we had this recession or slow down baked in back in August.
‘Saying that would be saying’
retard.
Fly’s don’t burn on the grill – down we go
(Amended and appended from last thread)
What bullshit that Immelt didn’t know what was going on. Everyone but perhaps my grandmother– who still thinks their main line of work is building toasters– knows that GE is just one big gamblin’ dice rollin’ megabank-asino. Ever since I’ve been in “the business” and probably long before, they’ve been known as “the lender of last resort.” That means they eat a lot of shit in order to peel the big bucks.
They, too (like Apollo), made megabucks in the early nineties by converting large amounts of stinky debt into equity and taking “rehabbed” insurance companies that they had helped LBO public again through huge IPO’s.
They could only accomplish this feat because they went pretty far out on the risk curve (one LBO we helped “unwind” into an IPO had a 95% debt, 5% equity structure — no shit!). They haven’t stopped as far as I know, and their banking side is probably four times as large today as it was then.
I spoke to a GE Finance guy not too long ago, and we were talking about why they do so much marketing, and why they have so many levels of “bankers” (really, “salesman” or “finders”) who seem to compete with each other (it’s very confusing from an agency side). He said, “Jake, our mandate is to put $13 billion to work every month, we need to feed the Monster.”
Anyone wonder if the Monster has been eating a lot of junk food recently?
The old folks used to say “As goes GM, so goes the USA,” economically speaking.
Given that GE has now become more “bank” than industrial manufacturer, just as the US economy has moved to more of a service provider than a manufacturer, I don’t think it would be ridiculous to replace GM with their name these days.
Take this !
Bears, don’t get carried away on this manna from heaven GE news. The street will shake this off very early next week & rally above The Woodmans lines du resistance.
You know what works in this tape on the up days.
Trade accordingly.
Uncle Ben will now set up a Fed Window Lending Facility for GE (and other public corps) funded with our tax dollars. Bailouts for ALL.
Going to watch SMH and maybe GS stabilization for possible mid-AM bounce and a daytrade. JBLU may be a trade based on not many airlines left now.
I like the Juice.
GE is too big to fail….lol
you think if everyone notices GE is shipping fewer fridges and turbines, they’ll start wondering how durable all those steel price hikes will be? X set for margin squeeze on commodity inputs. Old pension-fat steel in a recession with a stock up 450% in 3 years does not compute.
With Banks reporting next week, I don’t see the markets putting together a rally next week.
the street isn’t shaking this off unless there is some kind of conspiracy to finish green for the month of april
Bruce —
Does this mean we should buy CREE??
Seriously, I liked that vid not only for the scenery and clever use of technology, but because it featured my all-time favorite Beastie Boys tune.
Fly — you ought to feature your “Boys” more often, seeing as they were prolly from your neighborhood…
Bears:
Be careful.
I can see the bulls making a delicious sub out of this shit sandwich GE news. They may see this (in their narrow minded, fucktarded heads)as simply an issue with the finance unit, and not a problem with the “global demand” story that will miraculously save us all from bankruptcy.
From the press release:
“Demand for our global infrastructure business remained strong, but our financial services businesses were challenged by a slowing U.S. economy and difficult capital markets…
Note to all — there was also a prominent WSJ editorial the other day that lauded ex-Fed chief Volker’s comments criticizing Dollar Ben’s recent actions. They also suggestedc in that same piece that it would be a good sign if the Fed let a couple of these banks and/or hedgies go boobs up in a relatively public fashion. Good for the dollar, especially.
Congress, the Fed, Treasury, etc… even if they are on the “dark side” — all read the WSJ editorials on a daily basis. They have to.
Alias: BPOE
Time to put your best Elevator shoes on.
Lurker — All well and good until one considers that some 60%+ of GE’s EBITDA comes from the finance side.
Or “used to!”
I just work up…had a late night show to attend.
Holy crap. GE down 11%, that’s like 40B in market cap, no?
and Frontier Airlines is toast?
What the hell happened?
Jake:
You don’t need to convince me.
I am just trying to get into their (the bulls) heads, see if there is anything that they could use to stomp all of the pussy bears on the head with. Logic and thorough analysis seem to mean nothing to them.
Charlie Wilson, aka Engine Charlie, actually said that Jakey. I thought you knew something about our industrial history. He said that in his confirmation hearing for sec of def, to mean that there can be no conflict of interest ever for a GM man in govt.
Jeff Immelt, is a lousy incarnation of Electric Charlie, on the other hand.
Frontier is the 4th airline to go under. Granted, they are all regional and not big players, but this can’t bode well for the entire industry. Hell, AA has to be hanging on by a RCH at this point as well.
Wouldn’t this bode well for DUG?
This is gonna be a perfect set up for a bad news weekend, a little Jan 21 Sunday night action, and a shit the shower Monday/Tues. We are are going to take out the Jan lows. Then its shit the bed time.
Tues is a big earns day – J&J, Wamu, etc
http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/20080415.html
GE does not miss earnings this bad. It is not in their DNA. They are an earnings machine. They know every trick, every balance sheet move, every six sigma ninja engineering… smells like dead people. Downright shocking for such a big miss.
BTW – I had the opportunity to meet Jack Welch @ a Yahoo Finance event some years ago. He is short. Like Prince.
Calvin — thanks, I actually remembered the context, but couldn’t remember who the guy was.
You think maybe people aren’t bitching so much anymore about how much they paid Jack Welch?
BRCM,GS going to be + soon.
Fuck Immelt. Deep down, I knew Nardelli was the man.
Is it hot in here?
Jack Welch got greedy with that divorce. All that muck is from his files in Bridgeport court – although he was completely brilliant in undermining competition, if he could not buy it at extortionary rates. Cree – not so sure, they should be passed by OLED with much cheaper costs.
LEH green
Fly – shoot a laser beam at MON – fuck, just break it
Woodshedder will be correct. Those who agree with him, use these prices to your advantage.
When will the stimulous checks be “priced in”?
What effect will they have?
You will all be wrong.
Only “The Fly” will be 100% right.
LEH,MS and soon to be GS +. It’s a fooler. This market wants to screw everybody with common sense; both bulls and bears.
I have all sorts of “wins” going on around me.
It’s rather annoying.
I think I might go eat a fatty burger for a quick loss.
Can you get me an In and Out burger (if they have them in NY), heavy on the onions?
LEH greener
I would love to know who in the flatulent fuck is putting a bid under Mr. WaMu here.
$8.50 people! The shares are worth $8.50, tops! Start from there….
Now I don’t have to tell you good bulls whats happened in this market.
GE missed, commodities exploded, people stampeded and cattle raped.
The time has come to act and act fast.
I’m leaving.
LEH is a like a giant festering boil on my face that pains me every time I look at it.
TC — No In & Outs in NYC, nor anywhere on the east coast, I don’t think.
Unless you have them in Fla?
MInute Maid, you still short LVS?
Will you stop bitching about LEH.
Let it go up. Use the higher prices to sell it again.
Put/Call ratio has spiked. Looks more like a bottom then the start to a new leg down. Probably a low risk opportunity to get long here.
TeeCee — Western State phenomenon, only, for now.
Q: What do Lehman buyers have in common with this box of delicious Goober candies on my desk?
A: They’re both chocolate-covered nuts.
CAP — glad to see you’ve changed your tune, at last.
(/sarcasm)
The Fly can also fly backwards and has compound eyes. Did someone mention that if home prices decline far enough, 30% of all mortgages could go “defunk”? Joe Battipaglia did.
Double bottom breakout on KRE (regional bank ETF)? Where is Wood when you need him.
Had some In and Out in Gainesville (U of F) 40 years ago and every once in awhile when I go back but I don’t think it is the same as the ones out West.
if dow is not down 300+ today, considering the shit storm of ‘news’ then, it must be certain, that the bears are currently impotent for the forseeable future. (3 weeks)
The weak bulls are getting shaken out. If the Dow holds 12300 today, the bulls still have some hope for next week. If we end up flat to irrationally positive today, then we are in for a rally next week, barring the sun exploding this weekend. If all this bad news doesn’t sink the market today, I don’t know what will.
imo some positives so far today.
p/c- high
leh,c,gs,ms- are up
q’s- have not taken out yesterdays lows
transports= are flat
up vs downside volume- was running 10-1 on the downside.
lol @ GE.
hopefully they still have enough money to keep michelle cabrera’s boobs around.
Cramer has committed to finding a bull market “somewhere”. There you have it. His vendetta against the Fly and the bears continues.
the SRS up less than a thinning $, is the very definition of egregious
LEH is having the last laugh. Why short these guys? They’re smart. Way smarter than BS and C.
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN1139492520080411
I can’t bear to watch all this transpiring today. I’m going to watch the Masters and bury my head in the sandtrap.
Yeah, I should just ignore LEH. It’s been getting under my skin like no other position ever has.
Perhaps I should go work over at SAC capital. I think being force-fed estrogen and wearing a dress to work every day might chill me out…………
I’m going to buy Frontier Airlines today. Fuck this waiting in lines shit. I need a plane.
TAKE WHAT?
Stocks ripping higher. LEH (Buy) GS (Buy) MER (Buy)
BBBBBBBBBoooooooooooooyyyyyyyyyyyyyaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
Shors take a back hand to the face-bitch style!!
Go Zach Johnson.
couples
Even I don’t know why we are up?
these bears are such pussies
HA! Its this negative sentiment of yours that will take the market higher.
Linens and Things filing for bankruptcy next week.
No worries, it’s all good.
I like that nice young man from Kentucky. And you always have to semi-root for the Tiger-bot, right?
To promote technology and such.
Come on Fly, Buy some of my baby KBH! 25% @ $24, 25% @ $22 and double down if it hits $20! Should set you up nice for next bounce 😛
On a note of bullishness, we signed a deal (not closed, mind you), last night. The M&A (middle) market is not dead… yet.
Buyer is paying cash, of course.
Jake,
what is it that you do?
How feel you about LEH? C? Portends a near term rally it tells you. Fight it not. I sense the conflict within you. Your lack of faith in Hank and Ben disturbing is.
I call this the catapult…draw as many shorts in as you can with bad news then launch it skyward. Then once there is excessive capitulation to the upside all the smart money goes short again.
M&A mostly, some capital infusion stuff, but not a lot.
.