Classic burn out in the ag space. [[MON]], [[MOS]], [[DE]], [[CF]], [[AG]], [[AGU]] and [[POT]] have been bid up without fear, much to the chagrin of those who short them.
However, today is a classic pile in/pile out trade, where all of the scared/dumb money finds a nice safe home in ag, only to see it blown the fuck up by a thermo nuclear device, as bigger money takes profits.
In short, I am not a bear on ag because of fundamentals, only price.
Best case scenario for the sellers, the above stocks spike then collapse, leading to further selling on Monday.
I believe it’s about to happen.
NOTE: Best way to play it: short [[MOO]] or long [[SMN]].
UPDATE: Lehman Brothers CFO Callan says ‘March was a very, very tough month’- Bloomberg
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I was just going to ask you who the fuck is buying MON
dumb fucks
I don’t like to call tops. Looking at POT,MON,amd MOS it is hard to be bearish. They are still in an uptrend, which means they are still probably going to go up.
http://www.stocks-simplified.com
Shaun:
Stock market 101.
Eventually, stocks that go up, take breaks and go lower. Hence, you cannot find such evidence in your stupid charts.
Chivas,
Do you follow Gary Savage’s COT reports? He’s not so bullish on the COT’s even now.
And there’s been a ton of selling on strength recently, if you follow the WSJ page on the subject.
WM bulls say March was the best month on record and thats why they are buying.
Fly-
SMN sucks as a short play on ags here’s why:
Top 10 Index Companies
Weight
Monsanto Co 11.77%
E.I. DuPont de Nemours & Co 7.78%
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc 6.79%
Dow Chemical Co 6.44%
Alcoa Inc 5.44%
Praxair Inc 4.93%
Newmont Mining Corp 3.63%
Air Products & Chemicals 3.42%
Nucor Corp 3.28%
Mosaic Co 2.78%
too few ags, doesn’t reflect what will happen when they do fall.
It’s egregiously simple really, you’re wasting your time.
Jeff, we are all buying MON.
As in covering our shorts for huge losses.. 😛
dumbguy: what do you recommend as a better play?
“So it doesn’t matter that the Nikkei gained 3% this morning or that the Hang Seng added 2% in a strong session – they didn’t know GE would miss, poor bastards, and will very likely snap back on Monday, triggering a possible sell-off here by traders who forget which way the world spins. This is going to be very exciting. I think we’ll take a fun put on the FXI, which won’t go down because the Hang Seng had such a good day which should give us a good opportunity to pick up the $143 puts for $2.50 or less as a gamble that we get a 1,000-point drop on Monday. If our markets recover, that trade is void, of course.”
Thanks Phils
http://seekingalpha.com/article/71989-options-trader-friday-outlook-ge-missed
Hmm…I’m going to load up on Ags with this pullback (regardless whether its a fucking bubble), while shorting COF.
Boys, we have to break that 1340 SP support. If we do, its smooth fuckin sail.
Watch FXP above 80.
WARNING: Do not take checks from Jamie Dimon’s outfit unless you want to be taken when you cash it.
So here I am walking into the Chase me bank this morning to cash a check that I was given. It was a tiny check (couple thous) and I am asked to sit down for a moment or two. I thought what the fuck I must be in a casino trying to cash out my winnnings after 10 hours of a card counting session. I have to meet with 3 fucking people. They ask for my fucking finger print, why I want cash and then go in the back and talk it over. Once they return they hand me an envelope, well I get out of this boiler room casino and decide to examine my “winnings”. Low and behold my fucking envelope is fucking $5.00 light. Turns out these fucking people charged me $5.00 to cash a check at their bank that one of their customers wrote to me. I thought no way this must be a mistake and call up the JCP suit that gave it to me. This fuck explains this scam like a David Blane Youtube video.
I can’t fucking believe what kind of outfit they are running. There is no doubt in my mind these fuckfaces did the same to BSC in the back room. When they left out to count their winnings BSC discovered their fucking envelope was light too.
BEWARE as you are FOREWARNED!
Boomer:
I’ve never had anyone write under my name.
If you’ve ever noticed a difference, it is due to lack of editing or motivation on my behalf.
Hey, what’s with the lack of motivation?
I’m beginning to sense that you’re not too serious about blogging, if you’re so unmotivated all the time… and shit.
Meanwhile, I short some LEH today in my lt account. Even though you burned me on that WGAT and ARWR, I still listen to 3% of what you say.
-DT
Would someone give our shorts some viagra please? WTF?
time to buy some FXP
Don’t forget MCEL to flow along with ARWR…check that dog out now .12 / share.
FLY the contrary indicator says short AG….you know what that means. POT to 200, MOS to 150, CF to 150, MON to 120, even BG to …do I dare say 120.
Jake,
was not aware of gary savage. went to his page, but did not see anything. i might be wrong but i don’t think wsj gets info any faster than me. i follow that info weekly, i don’t have this weeks numbers but commercials have been net long spx, e-mini, q’s for sometime. will provide link to ctfc next post. thanks for providing gary’s page.
Boom,
I answered your queries on the other thread as best I could. Fly would know more about that stuff, since he’s a principal, and has to make sure all his minions get all their certification, under pain of death, etc.
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm
Gapping- You should have taken $5.00 worth of pens.
Chivas,
Gary does a pretty indepth spreadsheet review of all the COT data, including the commodity stuff. He gauges change on an incremental basis, and makes his calls according to the gravity of those changes. For example, COT may be “net bullish” on a gross basis, but may have radically reduced longs or increased shorts, indicating a change of sentiment, etc.
He’s pretty good.
Oh, and the WSJ stuff is completely different… I was talking about their “selling on strength” and buying on weakness” money flow pages available here.
Gapster,
Why didn’t you just cash the check at your own bank?
I just decided, I’m going to do everything the Fly does…the opposite…
I would bank enough money plus I get to piss off the Fly…
‘Short Lehman’ = Buy Lehman, Short Ags = Buy Ags, Fuck bulls = 400 points rally.
Cheers!
Wow,
FED is just an ATM.
on wheels.
The MON debate is solved.
TraderCaddy: Oh don’t worry I am going back to get that shit.
Jake: Checks are not cashed until cash is in hand. These days thats like trusting your sub prime mortgage won’t be paid delinquent. Fuck a check, give me your fucking money. Who knows when this fucker may decide to go tits up and start buying iPods and Gold Chains.
Gapping,
Are you a loan shark or somethin ? Good business to get into. I like loaning money to hot broads. If they don’t pay up I can alway pimp them. Or they can star in my new porn flick.
the “ag plays” spit in ya’ll’s faces, derisively.
there are no sellers. big ones. little ones. smart ones. dumb ones. no sellers.
most disappointing, yes.
Fly – I take you at your word. Won’t mention it again.
Jake – Thanks.
When I worked downtown and every once in awhile have a client come in and pay off a past due invoice I would race to his bank and cash the check before the ink on the signature was dry.
http://www.local12.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=13dbcee5-7cb1-4063-b7e0-1b9a59a60dc6
FOOD SHORTAGES HIT USA!
Hot off the press—
credit card debt lower every month
RBI index down the gutter
oh wait thats old news…so why were there rallies last few weeks…koolaid man is finally out of the juice.
Keep trying to call your bottom on SMN. haha
You lost, move on
regards
chuck
Boomer:
Prop traders at registered brokers need the 7 (general) and 63 (state), and usually the 55 (OTC)
I don’t know what the boiler room jerkoffs pimping John Q Publics grandma require
Is anyone selling there skf position or holding over the weekend?
Dith $TRAN still fighting through the Killing Fields.
Lurker — I think everyone needs those first two, no mattah.
FXI is so fucked right now.
Guys, expect a huge rally on Monday. Bailout Ben is going to let GE peak into his bedroom window.
Right On Fly….your the Harry Truman of the financial world!
Zombie Is God!!!!
So many comments -IBC has gone big-time or Jake has about 91 screen names. By the way the front page design is really really good– those pictures are great.
very, very tough month’….Bump in the road….Challenging…..I don’t think we’ll ever see the kitchen sink from these guys.
How bout an Angelo R. Mozilo Late Day Rally!!!!! Come on Fly Put the lizard up there.
Funny you guys should mention the JPM pens.
They’re really nice. Easily worth $5 a piece.
Take two, just in case.