iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,304 Blog Posts

Bulls Boiled Slowly

When the market was knifing lower 200-300 points daily, it scared people. Newspaper men started to write stories; and people from the government became opportunistic. So, the bears changed the approach.

Death by a thousand cuts, instead of the “sword of gay death.”

Notice, all of the “party stocks,” like [[AAPL]], [[RIMM]] and [[GME]], remain chockfull, while other stuff falls by the wayside, namely the bastards from [[LEH]].

If any of you leeches have been reading my poetry for more than 6 months, you know “The Fly” was always bullish. Gee, he’d run outside, following consumption of 4 cans of Monster Energy soda, and kick old men down stairs, or idle manholes—just to celebrate his long positions.

He was the “perma-bull” variety, until everything changed.

What changed?

It is a very long story and I do not care to bore you with the details. Just know, the stench from Wall Street, with all of its greed and folly became too much for “The Fly” aka Senor Tropicana. He read of massive errors being made at trading desks, coupled with “homo-hammered” retail sales.

He saw how stupid the internet trading community was, with all of their disgusting charts and loathsome market commentary.

So, he made a market call. One that was meant to last the entire year of 2008, not a few measly months.

The call was and is, as you know, to bet against the coked out guy on CNBC, talking gibberish. To bet against former Forbes magazine editors, who like to see equities trade higher, even in their nightmares.

In short, fuck stocks for all of 2008. “The Fly” will win, because God designed him that way.

Top pick: Short [[LEH]] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter

52 comments

  1. Green writer

    I like that “death by a 1000 cuts” it has a harmonious ring to it. Maybe that could be a new rigtone?
    Peace

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  2. BOTD

    nice Buy On The Dip on FXP , up 6% today…..

    just like father, ..fly knows best!

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  3. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    You guys are missing the whole story here. Its fucking oil you morons. Its stuck or it will break the consumer to pieces. Look oil cannot go higher without major market consequences. Refiners are losing coin daily. They must mark up gasoline tremendously for oil to go higher.

    My Plan: Buy the fuck out of DCR and hedge the bet with short the market. Both cannot operate in unisom any longer.

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  4. Malcolm Forbes, Sr
    Malcolm Forbes, Sr

    We have found that it is more profitable to sell the advice than to take it.

    or something like that

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  5. Green writer

    Gyapping,
    It is only part of the story. Although a strong component.
    A component adding to a very stressed reality.
    If the dollar continues its longterm slide then crude will go higher until consumption interferes with that premise.

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  6. parrot

    Gapp,
    Just so you know, anything can happen short term, but a longterm bet against commodities, is a bet against Jim Rogers & G Soros.
    We have a flight from currencies, not just the dollar

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  7. TraderCaddy

    Daytraders just need to buy long SMH in the AM only to be dumped in the PM for a nice $$.
    VGK or EZU (Europe) ETFs ain’t a bad daytrade either. FTSE closed basically unchanged.

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  8. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Look guys, can you Joey fucking Doughnuts afford $4.50 a gallon gas and still take the kids on a shopping spree at GME for NTDOY without being able to tap your fucking house as an ATM via HELOC’s? FUCK NO YOU CAN’T! DOWN OIL.

    In a more calm sense, I am just panic’d over here looking for any reason oil can go higher and prove me wrong. So far I cannot. HELP PLEASE!

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  9. Big Mike

    hmm…Fly talking shit?

    I guess its time to cover my shorts and start going long consumer discretionary and financials.

    Best trade yet…oh wait, throw some solar names while at it..

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  10. jeff

    http://teslawasright.blogspot.com/

    We are boiling frogs on our way to bondage.

    The Black Pope ain’t taking no shit

    National sovereignty is over folks – welcome the Amero – north american union

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  11. BOTD

    all 20 DOW trannies are DOWN and in the red today…

    hmmmmm….. didn’t someone say FUCK TRANNIES?

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  12. National Weather Service
    National Weather Service

    We are legging into the “Cane of Death” trade right here.

    All it will take is one big one to fuck up the Oil/Gas/Natty markets.

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  13. Green writer

    gyapping,
    Yes I can! Somehow I feel as if you think we can control the price of oil.

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  14. JakeGint

    Yeah, “someone” did.

    Now go have a glass of merlot.

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  15. Green writer

    It’s a shame how Tesla’s ideas were bought and put on a shelf so the MASS PRIME RAPE could occur.

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  16. CAP

    WTF is up with DCR ? Down 16% How does this POS work anyway ? I though its the inverse of oil. Is Oil up 16% today ?

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  17. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Greenwriter so you think the market can rip higher when the consumer is paying $4.50 for a gallon of gas? Or do you think the refiners will go bankrupt in order to keep the price of oil low thus inverting the crack spread?

    Where the fuck is Crudebroker today?

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  18. larry

    Alias: BPOE

    If you notice the FLY has not changed his stance on the market. Don’t try to fuck with Mother Market. That goes for the Fed,the broke funds ETC. The clowns on CNBC change their story every 1/2 hour. They are down to the level of a used car sales person. Do the word Bear Market ring a bell. Fuck ression talk. The FED can make the number what ever they want until after the election.

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  19. Richy Rich

    The Fly rules! Trannies led the way to other breakdowns. The artificially engineered double bottom will collapse. The fed fucked with the charts to suck in all the “chart chompers” (i use them but won’t be sucked into bullshit fed chart moves). Look at 98 double bottom…gee it was LTCM a meager $4 billion problem now we have a $3 trillion problem; minimum $600 billion and every dumbass thinks the “bottom is in”….look at da 98 bottom and 2008 bottom gee get long Bill…history repeats itself, JUST NOT EVERY TIME SUCKERS!

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  20. TraderCaddy

    Cap-See the links I posted about DCR on the previous Fly comment. DCR is a hose. Good for scalping and that’s about it IMO. Just don’t marry it (or UCR).

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  21. nullpointer

    CAP-

    i had the same question earlier today

    not all ETFs are created equal.

    read this, crazy shit:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/69137-macroshares-oil-funds-death-watch

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  22. CAP

    TC, nullpoint, thanks for the info. So DCR may not exist in a couple of days.

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  23. The Fly

    I sold all of my DCR @ 11, the other day.

    So sorry.

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  24. Richy Rich

    We’re only 1/3 of the way to my 819 target in snp…that’s right you perma-bulls….since 1890 EVERY major bear had a 48% median drop from the highs some had 80% ala 29 and naz 2000 we’re only 14% off the high….looking like 1972-1973 all over again my little pretties,and fuck your little dog too! Markets will bottom at their 200 MONTH moving aves…got that chart chompers…cuz EVERY major bear has bottomed around there.

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  25. TraderCaddy

    I would say the class action attorneys are already working on the suit papers against the sponsor of DCR. An amazing piece of work.

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  26. Mushroom Stamp

    Oil can remain unchanged for days, and DCR will go down, because it is linked to expiring contracts.

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  27. SatanicChihuahua
    SatanicChihuahua

    If Bush doesn’t announce plans to release oil from the strategic petroleum reserve soon, I bet the Democrats will be screaming for that action.

    It would be another way for government leaders to pander to voters in an election year.

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  28. AU CONTRAIR

    What’s up with MVIS lately? almost pullled a double the last few weeks…news?

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  29. wow

    I’m surprised that financials aren’t rocking today, did you see that incredibly Bullish bad news about the amazing y/o/y growth in wonderful level 3 assets for GS, MS & LEH?

    Guess people are starting to pay attention.

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  30. Green writer

    gyapp..
    No the market can not rip hihger if were paying $4.50 at the pumps. Refiners will not go bankrupt because they are in extremely limited supply. Without them we do not get a multitude of products.

    Oil can trade higher based on limiting supply, a weakened greenback, and global growth. Opec is not stupid. They know if we die then oil goes down. They do not want that to happen so when we can not be squeezed any further they will open the spiggots and thus the price will come down easing recessionary pressure on our economy.

    The refinery situation was a scam created by big oil majors to put a leash on price controls. They bought up all the refineries in the 60s $ 70’s only to higher enviormentalists to beat the drum of polution so that they could close them down and keep a tight lid on refining oil. This would offset their longterm reduction in exploration costs giving them more profits as we see today and keeping tight controls over inflation.

    If you can control inflation through various methods then you can effectively control the growth of wealth. Wealth is great, but too many wealthy people adds up to not enough people to willingly work in a service society.

    Furthermore the major oil and banks are a part of the elite ruling class via the wealth and the power it commands.

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  31. TraderCaddy

    If INTC could grow a couple we could see a major spike up in SMH (only to be sold for another day).
    Watching crude tick down and DCR goes down. It’s a one way street for DCR. DCR must track the price of goat livestock in Romania.

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  32. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Green: Thanks for the insight. I am hedging my DCR with short this fucking market. Like I said my bet is they cannot both go up. I am heavy long DCR from 7.69. Balls on the block here.

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  33. lol

    Bears should pick up momentum for a big down day before the week is over. They’re like a tiger creeping up on it’s pray getting ready to pounce.

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  34. nullpointer

    gapping-

    you are one brave mother fucker

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  35. JakeGint

    Is Wall Street Lurker lurking today?

    Just had one of my young (two years out of Wharton) employees come into my office, a big grin on his face.

    All seven of his buddies working on the Goldman fixed income desk(s) just got canned. These are cheap (relatively) kids who are still in the second or third years of their analyst programs. It is HIGHLY unusual* for the Bulges to let guys of this stature go. I would say that it’s almost an unwritten rule that you do not.

    Lurker can back me on this, if he’s around.

    _____________________

    * And DOUBLY highly unusual for Goldman, whom I’ve NEVER heard of doing this kind of thing. Even when other banks (CSFB, Morgan Stanley, SalomonSB, Lehman, UBS, etc) were doing it in the mid nineties and early 00’s, Goldman was NOT.

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  36. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    nullpointer: I am a fucking mad man with heroin running through my veins.

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  37. CrzyPatel

    anyone took my advice to buy dips on fxp? I still see a potential.

    Hint- the fund does transactions early in the morning to consolidate/inflate to their valued price. Meaning take a look at the start price of everyday, and compare that with how the hang seng’s top 25 liquid (big co) HK stocks will respond. The easiest trade is possible if you know how the HK stocks will respond.
    One strategy- buy with prices lower than opening prices for days you see the HK stocks going down in the future. this strategy is good for buying below the opening price and selling at the opening 930am next day to lock in gains!!!

    -docoupling is out of the question. HK stocks are traded by mainly international investors. “The actions of the WEST are amplified in China”-CrzyPatel

    email at [email protected]

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  38. CAP

    Did someone say that DCR was being managed by Brian Hunter ?

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  39. TraderCaddy

    DCR is trading like a biotech that just received FDA non approval. Lord help gapping.
    There blows SMH. Daytraders prepare for the sell trigger.

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  40. nullpointer

    where’s calvino?

    hey man, the jig might be up for CRM (for the eighth fucking time)

    just learned that 2/3 of their rev comes from small and medium size companies – scooby say “rah-row”

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  41. JakeGint

    Short Alert!

    FED has officially passed through it’s “Homo Hammer” status.

    It’s status is now “Meshugannah Mallet!”

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  42. Crude Broker

    Green writer, you are wrong about big oil buying up refiners.

    Gapp, stay away from DCR. Why would you touch an investment vehicle that is supposed to track the reverse of the wti contract and it is down 29% while the vehicle it tracks is up 2.5% ?? Hell, even UCR is up only 8%. Take your loss and don’t step in front of a commodity train until there is signifgant reversal.

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  43. El Tiberon

    Hot off the wire.

    From what I just saw Citi is calling this a bull market as the good outweighs the bad. Don’t agree with the fucktards IMHO…

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  44. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    The daily chart on DCR looks like a yearly chart for most stocks.

    Damn I can’t wait to pay up for that gas. It makes my car run much better when I put $4+ gas in it.

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  45. Crude Broker

    Crude Broker Says:

    Today is a perfect day way you need to stay the fuck away from DCR. DCR down %12, UCR up %4… USO which tracks it a tad better, up %2.78. Fucking criminal.

    April 7th, 2008 at 11:53 am +0

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  46. TraderCaddy

    Crude-Not to worry. The class action lawyers are on it.

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  47. Da Bears

    Da Bears are in control.

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  48. BOOMER'S SWEATY BACK
    BOOMER'S SWEATY BACK

    We are doomed. I am sitting in my office, fanning myself with gold and platinum records, because my company has frozen the office thermostat DUE TO OUR EGREGIOUSLY HIGH ELECTRIC BILL. Apparently, our energy costs have doubled. I am not kidding when I tell you that I am working in the dark, without electricity, in the heat.

    DOOMED!

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  49. Juice

    ‘fuck stocks for all of 2008’?

    I thought you said sept 2008 will be a time to buy?

    That was a quickie change … you taking pointers from Cramer, per chance?

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  50. nullpointer

    TSCM

    i dont get it – how does he maintain any sort of audience?

    i suspect the lifetime of a cramerican is about 12 months

    is this the “sucker born every minute” thesis in action?

    http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2008/04/09/cramer-signs-lucarative-new-deal-with-thestreetcom/?mod=BOLBlog

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  51. Oil is trading up more than $3 today to $111.68. DCR is the MACROshares inverse oil note that trades on the AMEX. When oil goes up, DCR goes down. When oil goes down, DCR goes up. Today, however, DCR is down more than 26% even though oil is up just 3.12%. What gives?

    When DCR began trading back in November 2006, oil was trading at around $60 per barrel. DCR trades along with UCR, which is the MACROshares oil up note. The net asset value (NAV) of UCR is the front-month oil contract price divided by three. The NAV of DCR is $40 minus the NAV of UCR.

    The reason DCR is down so much today is because there is an early termination clause in the structure of the notes. If the front-month price of crude closes above $111 for three consecutive days, the termination clause takes place and the notes will stop trading at their NAVs on the 4th business day prior to the end of the quarter that the termination occurs. Shareholders will receive distribution on the 3rd business day following the end of the quarter.

    Going into today, DCR was trading at just over $9 per share, but its NAV was $3.82. Remember, if oil closes above $111 for 3 consecutive days, the termination clause goes into affect and the shares are redeemable at NAV at the end of the quarter. As oil trades above $111, the share price has moved lower and lower. This trend should only accelerate as oil stays above $111. Currently, DCR is down 26.33% to $6.76.

    We sent our Premium subscribers a B.I.G. Tips report on this earlier today when oil was trading near $109, but there hasn’t been much mention of this in the financial world. It should garner more attention if the potential termination trigger becomes a reality.

    The termination clause is mentioned many times in the prospectus for DCR, and MACROshares explicitly points out the risks involved in investing in the notes. This should still remind investors to make sure they know exactly what they’re investing in before they put money to work.

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  52. fxpboboy

    crzy: with a name like mine, you can’t wonder what I have bought…

    long at 80… target 100+ in 2 weeks

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