I know many of you have been stuck in the go-go days of 2000. Nonetheless, it’s good to have you back here, in the present, in the midst of a fantastic recession.
As you know, the Fed is concerned about the recession, via their minutes.
Forget about a 2nd half recovery. It’s not happening. Right now, with the market massively extended, I’m warning you, take profits now, else lose a few limbs during earnings season.
See, when the economy slows down, companies warn of earnings deterioration. Right now, the market IS NOT pricing that in.
Ahead of numbers, I prefer to be flat or short the market, as the slowdown takes hold of EPS estimates.
I understand your fucking charts say “buy without fear.” Moreover, I encourage you to do so. This way, I can use your legs and arms to fuel my cash machine.
Developing…
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The markets knife lower proving the FLY is correct once again yet SMN continues to drop and ends up bankrupting the FLY. Odd no ?
Fed Minutes,
great stuff. I love how they slowly unravel the bad news when all the indicators showed this data arising over 6 months ago. It is like a casino floor every turn is meant to keep you on the gaming floor.
All it will take is a few down days to reverse the 50DMA, then even the charts won’t help.
I’ll trade you a used torso for a few sticks of gold. I’ll even throw in some empty monster energy cans with dents in them. (the dents are from impact on trader/servants)
Fly:
Don’t you get it?
There isn’t going to be a recession.
People don’t need jobs in order to spend money.
Nor do they care that inflation is rapidly eroding their purchasing power and discretionary income.
They couldn’t care less that their only real means of savings, their home, is rapidly deflating in value amid what is arguably the greatest housing crisis in half a century.
And I know that they are not concerned that interest rates on everything from credit cards to car loans are going up.
How is any of this going to impact consumer spending? Gee fly, I thought you were smarter than this……….
This current episode of the “Recession of 2008” will only last another week or so, when the next Boom of 2008, will ensue, much to your egregious chagrin.
Lurker:
Correct. I neglected to factor in those tidbits, into my models.
All the Fed has to do is print money, then mail it to people, in order to bail out WMT and TGT.
Juice:
Maybe less. It may end today.
and btw, the Boom of 2008 will be fueled by none other than the fuel of choice of the 1800’s industrial revolution – Coal; much to my chagrin, since I am short a couple of those egregious pollutive stocks.
Didn’t you hear, Juice? They canceled Global Warming, too. That made it easier to celebrate the end of the Depression of 2008. This hasn’t been announced yet, but a friend on the inside told me that the Fed is going to let people put their junkers up as collateral for treasury notes as long as they promise to use the notes as down payments on new Denalis and Hummers.
Thats right Fly.
Let’s not forget that WMT printing solid numbers is an excellent indication that the consumer is alive and kicking. After all, WMT is where everyone goes when they have extra Benjamins just burning a hole in their cut-off jean short pockets.
Also, please try to ignore comments from WMT that purchases of high margin items (ie clothing and electronics) were off significantly, and that an unusually high percent of gift card redemptions went to the purchase of basic necessities.
After all, they are still spending…..
Per Google Trends, egregious is hot, viz is fading (and Hungarian), and asshat remains undiscovered.
Please adjust your comments appropriately, asshats.
ott nott,
you are correct about viz (water) fading.
i can’t wait for cramer to pump his rimm apple google and amazon.
oh and fast money will say ‘ buy the dips and sell the rips.
what do you do if you buy a handful of falling knives?
Second prize is a handful of falling steak knives?
Gold stocks believe in the recession story.
You know, maybe there will be a major boom, when all these fed cuts take place, and all the stimulous and tax rebates take place… but it will be going up at the cost of inflation. Heck dow could go to 14,500 and we could see hyper inflation by this summer…
Then interest rates gets cut, and stocks plummet like mad.
Priced in gold, the markets have sucked since 2000… Eventually that “suckage” will be priced in dollars.
Not so fast skippy-FLY,
The “econonmy sucks” climate has been priced in to some degree, hence bad news days now are minor down .5% days. Bad earnings releases from AA and AMD set the market up for a fall but fall it did not.
You see this pause as a short set-galore….bulls see it as a pause and are buying the dips. With sidelined money waiting for a green light, especially after the terrible first quarter…shorts and real bears might just get steam-rolled on the way up, while bulls treat dips as a fire sale opportunity.
Long and strong