A classy headline, indeed.
So, if things are so bad, as indicated in every piece of economic data, why isn’t it reflected in stock prices? Year to date, the S&P has hardly been nicked.
Today, we have the shitfaces from [[C]] upgrading the worthless assets of [[LEH]]. This, of course, is very amusing. It’s equal to someone upgrading the SS Titanic, just prior to it being snapped in half like a fucking pretzel—on its way to fishville. Yeah, fuck that ship too. I upgrade LEH, right here and now, prior to it being a permanent living room for fish.
Seeing the market up like this (75) is just madness. Something is fishy (pardon the excessive fish references). It started in Asia last night, with many of the lunatic Asian indices sprinting higher. Then, there was slight follow through with the Europeans. Now, we have full fledged dumbness here, with the market climbing—despite bad data.
Thus far, gold is getting the ax to the head treatment. I am long gold for two reasons.
For one, it is a faux hedge against my stupid [[SMN]] position. And secondly, I believe it will trade up to $1,500, during the late months of 2008.
In order for “The Fly” to stop being such a bearshitting malcontent, several things must occur:
1. Oil must trade below $90.
2. Natty must trade below $8.
3. All food commodities must trade 25% lower from current levels.
4. The dollar must stabilize.
5. Credit concerns must decrease, starting with spreads.
6. Bonds must get destroyed.
Providing all 6 events begin to take shape, I will get long and cover my shorts. However, as long as retards like LEH still exist, I’m just fine here—shorting shit while bouncing empty Monster cans off my trader/servant’s skull.
Top pick: Short LEH.
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If the financials are performing this bad in this gay euphoric market of the last 2 weeks I hate to see what happens when we actually drop. Next week will be the reckoning. The windows shall be undressed.
03:53 LEH Lehman Brothers profiled in Inside Wall Street – BusinessWeek Online (38.71 )
BusinessWeek Online reports some pros believe Lehman Bros., which hit 82 in June, is a buy. “The fears surrounding the firm’s funding and liquidity position have been overstated,” says William Tanona of Goldman Sachs.
His 12-month target: 58. So it still offers “an attractive entry point,” he says. Richard Bove of Punk Ziegel also rates Lehman a buy.
“Lehman’s management, led by Richard Fuld, is the best in the business,” says Bove.
At least the cans are empty.
You’ve grown kinder.
It’s equal to someone upgrading the SS Titanic, just prior to it being snapped in half like a fucking pretzel…
_______________
Meh.
Let’s help out Mr. Fly, class.
What else can be “snapped in half?”
Har Har Har.
Silly Fly…you doubt the power of my Golden MakeBelieve Bullets?
/s/ The Man Behind the Curtain
Interesting that Mr. Bove chooses not to call himself “Dick” anymore.
It’s an affirmation.
Great post Fly, thanks for the list.
Your picture of Dick Bove on the lego set is right up there with Tanman and Pat Riley
Short MER. Short DBA
i have never hated a stock more than POT.
Cramer is a fucking idiot. What is it with him and the fucking uptick rule? WTF is CNBC doing having him on squak box. I guess it is more about getting viewers than giving sound financial advice.
Dammit, what a lying sack of shit. You know that bastard hammers down on the weak stocks, just like all the rest of us. He thinks he is some kind of savior to the retail investor, and all he is doing is fucking them, hard.
Although I know better, I turned on CNBC this morning. For some reason, a financial news network feels it is prudent to play “It’s peanut butter jelly time”. WTF?
If they start playing youtube videos of Mr. T, God help us all.
Fly,
How big is your position on SMN? You still shorting Potash as well?
I dont know man, if we are indeed going through inflationary times (as the whole world is experiencing), commodities will continue rallying…
The author of the BW article is being far too formal.
I’m still a Dick.
Fly, et all…
One thing which might affect SMN and other AG plays:
http://news.google.com/news?source=ig&hl=en&um=1&tab=wn&q=wheat+fungus
Big Mike, inflation and speculation are two different things. IMO, what you have witnessed is speculation in commodities. When that ends, as the CBOE is attempting to do with their margin req. hikes, look out below. Inflation is a bitch, but not like speculation.
i had my suspicions that legg was one of the idiot shops that caused the commodity selloff, and after seeing that news a few minutes ago, it makes more sense.
now i hate POT more, because it’s probably going to keep going up.
Cramer’s latest angle is that the falling prices has nothing to do with the massive amount of leverage into make-believe investment vehicles, much less the -50% or so declines in earnings, the lack of any new “creative” revenue streams…
but rather coordinated Bear Raids on his buddies.
How gay, next he’ll be pumping up the 9/11 conspiracy theory sites.
Fly:
Don’t you think that housing prices need to show some signs of stabilizing as well?
Can consumers really be expected to increase or even maintain their current spending levels while watching their own personal ATM and only real vehicle for savings continuously decline in value? Its not just the actual value of their home, but also the psychological effect of losing those “savings”.
Also, lets not forget the high % of job creation over the past decade directly attributable to the housing sector, as well as the numerous ancillary jobs created as a result of the now defunct housing “boom.”
Am I just placing too much emphasis on this?
“Today’s show is going to be called investing like a catfish.”
– Peter Costa, CNBC Analyst on Squawk on the Street 3/28/2008
Like a catfish? A fucking catfish? I have had enough of CNBC today.
Best post in awhile Broker.
Good on ya.
I went out and bought 50 bowties yesterday and right now am having a voodoo bonfire in my backyard in honor of Jim “fuckface” Rogers and his armageddon thesis.
Fuck him and his shredded romanian goatdick for brains.
“Now, we have full fledged dumbness here”
Haha
wow. the catfish comment. hahaha
i am just an internet fucktard, but the action today feels like we are on the edge of a cliff
What about shorting retailers after the JCP warning. Any comments about the best one out there?
The ‘Fly’ is on the commentary ball these days.
Crispy commentary flows from his keyboard like sewage from Beijing factories into the Tongzi.
Top pick- short the consumer via COF
The real truth about Cramer..Thoughts?? ago To understand Cramer you have to read his first book. You know the one he never talks about: “Confessions of a street addict”
In that book, it is clear is was no better than any average investor who threw darts at a board during the biggest bull market of this generation.
He essentially only made money when stocks went up.
How did he survive for 25 years??
H I S W I F E .
She was the real brains behind their success.
His wife was the one who kept them in all cash for the 1987 crash.
His wife was the one who got them set up for the 1991 Gulf War crisis.
His wife was the one who literally saved the firm in 1998 during the LTCM crisis.
Not Cramer himself. In 1998 is firm was on the VERGE of bankruptcy.
If it had not been for Cramer’s wife Karen, he would be nothing today.
N O T H I N G.
He admits all that in that book, and it tells the real story of how he was just average.
Cramer survives thanks to white trash america and the fact that most americans are “gamblers” not true investors, as the media would have you beleive.
The show Mad Money, is a show about gambling, masquerading as investing advice and education. Nothing more.
The average american has dick in the market. People seem to think that having $50K in the market is alot of money..LOL. When these “pre-screened” clowns of Cramerica call in saying they have “made so much”, they made their pathetic $2K on a stock and to them thats alot of money, considering the average american makes $45K / year.
The average american has less than $35K in mutual funds as reported by mutual fund companies a few months ago.
I have been going through Lehman’s numbers, and its holding company has DOUBLE the liquidity pool (unemcumbered assets), relative to MER and GS, and nearly triple that as of BSC.
However, one can always argue if its business model is solvent in the future.
All you internet bear-tards are reading the same fucking paper.
BUY WMT
They are going to walk this shit up all day again.
fly .. by the time all 6 of those things happen the dow will be 2000 points higher and it will be time to get short again for the real estate collapse of 2011
Fly or whoever else – You posted the FED’s H3 stats, and that it is sharply declining. Does this mean anything else than the banks taking advantage of TAF because of the cheap money?
Hah
Rumor Alert! For whatever it’s worth, one of the regulars over at Slope of Hope, 2 sweeties, has been talking about MER possibly being in serious trouble (bankrupt) based on “credible” information.
Here’s the thread of their comments.
As someone who has been and still is very negative on MER, I am hoping this is true. I absolutely wouldn’t open new positions on this for sure, but I wouldn’t mind it being true!
Just know 2sweeties is also saying the news might not ever happen or be known. But it’s at least fun to see if anything does come of it.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Did “Dope on a Rope” read that in one of his oversized charts?
Don’t be too hard on Dope on a Rope. I understand he gets the books with large type from the library.
The FLY:
I warned you that shorting LEH doesn’t look so easy if it appears to a lot of people it is easy money. Always do the opposite of what majority of people are doing. You should have covered your LEH shorts for now yesterday.
Time to load up some PAL and SWC. It’s getting quiet here. Palladium is the only precious metal up today, but hardly any one noticed.
Wow, just want to say your posts are awesome, really liked this one on Lehman/market…. I am not just saying that because I agree with you, but since I do agree with you, it probably didn’t hurt in generating my very high opinion of your intellect.
Kudos, Troy
PS- I was shorting Lehman independently on their stupid bounce back to $45 and fake earnings figures, this was the first time I’d ever read your blog.
PPS- Me-thinks the most credible bull-case for owning Lehman stock is that their CFO Erin Callan has nice legs and is kind of hot for being 40 something years old. She’s rich too, that probably makes her just a tad hotter still….