Consumer confidence fell the most since Nixon. According to Case-Shiller, home prices plunged by 10.7%. A new record. Congrats Mr. Hovnanian.
And, to top the shitsicle off, the dollar has fallen the most in two weeks, versus the euro.
Cognizant that money managers will paint the tape this week, for brochure purposes, I will buy more gold, via [[DGP]], in order to hedge against my [[SMN]] position.
Remember, SMN has several gold stocks in its holdings. If commodity related names melt up into Friday, DGP will offset my SMN losses quite efficiently.
Also, keep your eye on [[FXY]]. Should the dollar continue to weaken versus the yen, this rally will end quicker than a gay parade in the middle of Tehran.
Top pick: DGP
UPDATE: Due to my high tolerance for pain, I will not cover my [[MON]] short. Instead, I will let the dust settle, then short more. The nerve I have!
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“this rally will end quicker than a gay parade in the middle of Tehran”
now thats funny.
that last line is hysterical.
what did you do with your short MON shares today, fly?
See update.
ballsy. i like it
You must be reefer-ing [sic]to the fact that there are no queers in Iran. Not only is it outlawed according to decree handed down from Allah, the mostest holiest One, herself, but Premier Achmendimwitijihad said so herself. And she oughta know, being a closet tailgunner.
Most homey stocks bottomed in early January. If equities run 6 months ahead of the real world, (as advertised) the real world bottom should come this summer.
The Fly appears to be busy working on giving back some of that 30%+ gain this year. Predictable. Overconfidence costs money.
That was good with the gay parade in Tehran, I would qualify that as being funny. Just stay in this market, the shit dam is going to explode on the dike finger fuckers and it is our mission to be there to kick their bald heads down into the goo when the when comes.
Forget how you think the market should react to the dismal numbers. Watch how the market actually does react. NASDAQ and tech doing well. It’s a buy. No idea why but who cares? We will know why in six months.
Take those awesome YTD gains and put ’em in the bank, fly.
Printing the doji again, like at the 12,707 level boyz.
Get short.
FXP
DGP – long gold
SMN
SKF
SRS
TC,
i’m with you
GS appears to be fading faster than Reverend Wright at a Southern Baptist convention.
Fly,
Since your loading up on Gold, you should load on GRAINS…JJG.
We brushed that consumer confidence reading like it was nothing. I’ll bet if we had “above” expectations, we would have rallied another 200 points today.
Being a bear sure is tough…the shit you have to put with…
I might buy some Monsanto long to hedge against earnings on April 2nd…
People are putting way too much emphasis on technicals, with HUGE buying orders near the lows. I am beginning to find it doubtful as to whether we could break those lows; in fact, could this be the bottom, but to be retested a few times?
What you think?
The market appears to be behaving like the only big thing to fear right now is financials (and maybe energy and telecomm).
The market is like that guy on PCP…
The bears keep hitting him with more and more bad news (pepper spray) and nothing happens. He just wipes his face and keeps dancing around, crazed out of his mind…
but in the end, the bears win. It just takes a little longer.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=S4xyj6JVYrg
Is the marketlikely to grind higher until there is another financial that gets over a barrel? Or earnings growth slows meaningfully from here? These are my questions.
It’s hard to see what the next “negative†catalyst will be. The absence of bad news combined with the market holding three times now at prior lows plus healthy skepticism may keep things growing.
Obviously any financial company news will be tough – but that’s priced in. We could see could see a short term relief rally – but the earning power of financials has been negatively impacted for a long time. Still too early to buy bank stocks.
We could see the market act better in technology (cheap) and consumer discretionary(also cheap) but likely trading rallies, not new bull markets.
Expect a long slow recovery, with subdued growth and a consumer that will need to deleverage. All this points to slow growth, lower multiples for stocks, and perhaps, muted inflation concerns.
We shall see.
What the herd does not yet see, is the possibility of a double dip recession – and the stimulative measures start to “peter out†and housing continues to decline, consumers and corporations deleverage and overall spending is less than expected.
But we will rally at least through the Q1 – the hedge funds will make sure of that. The question is how long and how deep the recession. For the most part – the market expects it to be short and not terribly difficult. That may be optimistic.