iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,316 Blog Posts

I’m Too Busy to Lose Money

Everyone is piling into homies, financial and tech. The credit crisis has ended and investors are putting cash to work.

The only problem: people are losing their fucking jobs.

Don’t take your eyes off the employment picture son, else you will end up being foreclosed on. An ironic twist of irony, indeed.

So, with everything gapping higher, I like my chances going short here. Look for max pain, for the shorts, at around 12,800. I will be very aggressive with my downside bets, up at those levels.

During the day, I had some “space alien magician” buys and shorts, not worthy of repeating.

Just be at ease knowing, “The Fly” is smarter than you and will end up making far more in this market, than most of you combined.

Finally, going short ag stocks here may work, even in an up tape. Much of the bull case here is deflating commodities, while inflating banks. So, I can see a scenario where stocks like [[POT]] and [[MON]] trade lower, despite the market melting up.

NOTE: Fuck everyone on CNBC who said the word “bottom” today.

NOTE II: I love this post, for a multitude of reasons—particularly the hastily manufactured photoshop. Not too much different than the “hastily” priced [[BSC]] deal.

Holy Shit Warning: VLO guides Q1 EPS $0.10-0.35 vs $0.91 First Call consensus

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28 comments

  1. Big Mike

    I gotta tell you, we finished above 50 MA on SP500. Technically speaking, this is very bullish.

    Although I would still agree with you on the bearish bias, jobs are a lagging indicator.

    Perhaps, I’m stupid…and feel free to correct me, but isn’t a near 10% drop on home prices tremendously bearish on consumer spending, with the addition of diminishing bonds values even more?

    What the fuck…I should have listened to the Gartman and stayed on the sides.

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  2. Q4

    Gold

    Santogold

    Fly:

    Thanks for the VLO update. My TSO puts should adjust accordingly.

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  3. Breakfast Meat

    The Fly sees all, or so he would have you believe. I thought the market was over-priced @ Dow 12,800 the last time, Nov. 2006. It rallied. Go figure. I guess the Fly knows everything, as well as being able to see 360 degrees. Delusional adult maggots get that way when they take too much viagra.

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  4. Sierra Water

    If you work for the California government, start looking for a job. This crisis is just starting..

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  5. The Fly

    Meat Boy:

    We shall see who laughs last.

    Put your intellect to the test. Go to the Peanut Gallery and offer your picks.

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  6. big snacks

    srs is worth a shot tomorrow despite the mkt probally heading higher

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  7. JakeGint

    I like that post for the pic of Tyree making “the Catch” from the Superbowl.

    And for the Cramer pic.

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  8. relax

    I liked SRS at $125… liked it more at $120.

    Loved it at $118, backed up the truck at $110.

    Couldn’t get enough at $104.

    Just crazy about it at $95-$98.

    Laughing myself silly at $92.

    I’m going to die broke, but very happy, apparently.

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  9. Big Mike

    Question…what happens to those Bear’s employees who sold their stock at 3ish-4ish range, when all analysts said the deal at $2 was inevitable?

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  10. Gunners

    Big Mike,

    They probably shoot themselves, for the second time in a week. And I don’t say that with any humor involved. It’s sickening to think of the lives that got ruined by this debacle.

    DUG should be good for tomorrow, on this VLO re-forecast, no?

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  11. Alvari40

    My apologies for stating the obvious, but volume for this type of an up day was pathetic. Carry over from Thursday where bulls rule the weak tape? Wait, Thursday was great volume. Wait, that was because it was option expiration. Ohhh…..nevermind. Disregard this post.

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  12. BOOMER

    I’m in Colorado today, interviewing an ad agency. They sucked. They think they are the shizz, but they suck. Nevermind. Waste of a day and travel on Easter eve. I am pissed at the waste of time.

    Anyway, the driver takes me down E470…to DIA

    DOZENS I MEAN DOZENS of empty new construction withing view from the road. Pretty nice to… $500 – 900k. Not shacks. He says…there are lots of great deals on houses around here. “And they just keep building” WTF?!?!?!?!

    I think the banking shit isnt even close to being over with.

    The Tanned on and his ilk might just ruin our country, “Americo: Home of the Amero”

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  13. m

    you got it, everyone’s saying “Ben saved the day”… Just like I thought the attitude would be.
    Now, maybe he has a day or two more so there’s a little more hype before it comes down again, but it’s close enough… talk of “ben saves the day” is the cue to get out..nice call…

    Similarly, the cue to get out of gold and begin a slow process of covering shorts, and then into the market may have been this article
    http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2008/03/19/2003406152

    “Seventy-six percent of those polled said the economy is in recession, compared to 22 percent who said it is not, USA Today said. Asked if the US could slip into a depression lasting several years, 59 percent said it was likely and 79 percent said they were worried about it, the paper said.”
    It’s that “oh no reccession or depression is coming, I’m worried, I better buy gold” attitude that means there’s too many people in gold.
    Kind of like how everyone including your barber and people at the grocery store suuddenly thought they were experts in stocks in 2000.
    Just wish I would have read that article a little earlier, because I certainly would have taken more profits of DGP and less of SMN

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  14. The Mexican

    Do you know how to trade the triagle?

    Triangles are telling me Dow Jones is going to 16,000 next month……

    Do you know how to trade Hexagons?
    Do you know how to trade Rumanian Goats?

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  15. JakeGint

    Dino’s biggest nightmare, come convention time…

    Stalin’s long lost daughter found!

    Punch it off, quick!

    Punch it off!!

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  16. bankable

    http://video.stumbleupon.com/#p=0k4lsi1dql
    (Why you should never lose sight of your cell phone)

    You can still “lose” money in other ways, Mr. Fly

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  17. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Fuck I am long tso but only half a position. I will buy more in the ayem under 30 perhaps.
    LEH is 20% overvalued.

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  18. Q4

    gappingandyapping:

    TSO: will lose that $30 battle.

    Agreed on LEH. Been riding this one down.

    Even with oil prices coming down in the near term, the VLO revision and crack spreads look pretty thin.

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  19. Breakfast Meat

    Peanut Gallery ate my e-mail address Fly-boy.

    Short: V, MA, WY

    Long: JNJ, with all the KY you’re using on yourself I plan to make a fortune.

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  20. Employee8

    Boomer,

    But we’ll need all that housing for the influx of foreigners who will be buying the country. It will all work out …. you’ll see.

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  21. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    How does VLO only trade down 3% on that news?

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  22. ottnott

    3% is the new 30%.

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  23. Dinosaur Trader

    Jake,

    She’s a MILF with or without that stache in my book.

    -DT

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  24. BOOMER

    V seems like a tell to me, no?

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  25. “V seems like a tell to me, no?”

    I was thinking the same thing.

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  26. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Broker I know you like Fast Money but seriously if I hear fucking CARL ICAHN one more fucking time I am going to break this TV. Fuck how much can they talk about one fucking person.

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  27. astrologer

    http://tarot.com/packages/newscentral/market-week.php

    Short-Term Geocosmics

    The translation of transiting Venus to the forthcoming Saturn-Uranus opposition will end on this Friday, March 28. When the Sun made this translation February 27-March 10, we speculated that stock prices around the world might fall hard, much like what happened in January. But we suspected the pattern might reverse this time, because Venus was in Pisces, where it is exalted and thus much stronger. And typical of Uranus time bands, the market has a way of doing just the opposite as what one might expect. As we ended last week, everyone on the planet seemed to think that the financial fabric of the world was about to totally break down. I don’t ever remember the “D” word (Depression) being bandied about so much as I saw in the European financial press last week. To say that the financial community was in a panic last Monday would be an understatement. The mood was utter despair and hopelessness, sort of like one might expect with planets in Pisces, with Venus in opposition to Saturn.

    But Financial Astrology teaches us that when the investment community’s mood is bleak, and markets are declining in to these planetary periods, it is time to buy. Once aspects to Saturn leave in a declining market, prices tend to rise immediately afterward.

    Still, we cannot say the market has confirmed that the worst is over. More bad news probably lies ahead in the next two weeks as Pluto will turn retrograde on April 2, and the Full Moon of March 21 formed a T-square with Mars and Pluto. Whether stock markets fall again to new yearly lows remains to be seen. But with Pluto being highlighted so remarkably in the next two weeks, the problems with debt, defaults, and more write-downs by major world financial institutions, is probably not over.

    Longer-Term Thoughts

    The big news in Europe last week is the hysteria about a coming financial collapse. It seems that the financial media is not just focused on a recession anymore, but with full blown depression. The European market analysts seem convinced that nothing can save the USA banking system now. No matter how much money the FRB pours into the system or how much they lower the interest rates, the future of the USA — and hence world — economy is doomed. We are in for a serious washout unlike anything we have seen since the 1930’s. Upon returning to the States on Wednesday night, it appears that pessimism in the USA is almost as serious. But not quite.

    If we look at long-term planetary signatures and their correlation to economic history, we can make a case for both a positive and negative viewpoint. First of all, I would suggest that Jupiter in Capricorn exaggerates (Jupiter) the fear (Capricorn). The Federal Reserve board is a Capricorn entity, and Jupiter in its Sun sign leads me to believe they can still pull a rabbit out of the hat and prevent an immediate collapse. I believe they are acting quickly and boldly in exactly the way they have to. Sure, it may seem like it is too late, and the hysteria can create a feeding frenzy leading to a collective self-fulfilling prophecy. If enough people lose confidence, then of course the markets and economies of the world will crumble, regardless of the planetary signatures. And we saw some of that last week. But with interest rates coming down quickly and with the U.S. Government about to send out $150 billion dollars in tax rebates, and with a lot of money now in the hands of mutual funds as a result of retirement savings accounts contributions, it won’t take much to suddenly uplift this economy and the stock market. Once the market starts to rise, it won’t take much for these money managers to yank all that cash and buy stocks in huge quantities. And once that happens, the headlines of the major financial publications around the world will be dumbfounded, and will probably proclaim that something of a miracle just happened. Why not? Uranus is in Pisces all year, and about to be sextiled by Jupiter in its first of three passages this year, on March 28. The danger may not be that the market is about to collapse, but rather that it is about to launch to a new round of some serious buying by the funds who are sitting on large cash positions.

    If this happens, the financial pundits will declare the problems are behind us. But they are not. Well, they may be temporarily behind us for a few months, for these geocosmic signatures may have an effect lasting a few months, and these stimulus packages perhaps about the same, like just enough to get us close to the election. Once they wear off, the possibility is strong that these same problems return when Saturn begins its square with Pluto (2009-2010). How appropriate to see all this unfolding on Easter weekend, a symbolic time of death and resurrection. Enjoy the respite while it lasts (if it lasts), and try to construct your future financial plans while you have this opportunity.

    Disclaimer and statement of purpose: The purpose of this column is not to predict the future movement of various financial markets. However, that is the purpose of the MMA (Merriman Market Analyst) subscription services. This column is not a subscription service. It is a free service, except in those cases where a fee may be assessed to cover the cost of translating this column from English into a non-English language. This weekly report is written with the intent to educate the reader on the relationship between astrological factors and collective human activities as they are happening. In this regard, this report will oftentimes report what happened in various stock and financial markets throughout the world in the past week, and discuss that movement in light of the geocosmic signatures that were in effect. It will then identify the geocosmic factors that will be in effect in the next week, or even month, or even years, and the authorís understanding of how these signatures will likely affect human activity in the times to come. The author (Merriman) will do this from a perspective of a cycleís analyst looking at the military, political, economic, and even financial markets of the world. It is possible that some forecasts will be made based on these factors. However, the primary goal is to both educate and alert the reader as to the psychological climate we are in, from an astrological perspective. The hope is that it will help the reader understand these psychological dynamics that underlie (or coincide with) the news events and hence financial markets of the day.

    No guarantee as to the accuracy of this report is being made here. Any decisions in financial markets are solely the responsibility of the reader, and neither the author nor the publishers assume any responsibility at all for those individual decisions. Reader should understand that futures and options trading are considered high risk.

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  28. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    What the fuck is Jimmy Boy Cramer doing with Justin Timberlake?

    http://www.people.com/people/article/0,,20185962,00.html

    Isn’t that him on the right in the picture?

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