iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,395 Blog Posts

Late Night Thought

Ever so quietly, the Chinese stock market has crashed!

UPDATE: For those of you who like March Madness bullshit, go join Dpeezy’s (King of the PG) iBC tourney.

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48 comments

  1. BOOMER

    http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia

    huh?

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  2. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    This just in!!!: Fucktard made a new video about his encounter with Barack Hussein Obama!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sIklJxXCHzY

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  3. BOOMER

    Ah!

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  4. BOOMER

    Fly – what do you make of the bloody shame that is BOOM? Do you think a fund is blowing up and liquidating? Any thoughts? Watching it is brutal.

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  5. Woodshedder

    FXP closed at a 52 week high.

    Gartman didn’t miss the quiet crash.

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  6. A, Nominus

    It’s not so quiet in China anymore – new report says violence spreading. Oil down in Singapore. Tomorrow -> FXP and DUG????? Shanghai down 5% right now.

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  7. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Am I seeing the last trade on oil as under 100 now?

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  8. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Hey Wood does that declining 50 day on MON pretty much seal its fate for awhile?

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  9. The Fly

    Boom is being taking down with the other resource stocks.

    I suspect this flush is related to margin selling, forced by clearing firms.

    Near term, they’re all sells. But, soon, they will be good fishing.

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  10. Woodshedder

    Gapping, it’s done.

    I think it is likely that it will want to test the 50 day again, at some point.

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  11. Koppenhagen

    Late Night Thought:

    Whatever happened to Bill Miller? Has anyone looked at his fund vs. SPX? I guess his luck ran out…

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  12. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Wow today was the biggest volume day for DUG ever. Broker or Wood are you guys more bullish SMN or DUG? I like the pure play short oil better. Is there a way to be long just gasoline or are the refiners the only way to play gasoline?

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  13. Woodshedder

    I suck at trading oil.

    I like SMN more gapping.

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  14. calvino

    ok

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  15. Woodshedder

    ok

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  16. Jim Cramer

    Booyah!

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  17. Remarc Mij

    Hayoob!

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  18. JJ2000426

    Time to buy PGM metals stock again. PAL/SWC. When there is blood in the street it’s time to buy.

    The South African electricity crisis will last years. There is no fix and the problem will get worse before it gets better. Winter is coming in SA:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/63529-investing-in-a-resource-constrained-world-part-ii

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  19. Employee8

    Gap&Yap,

    UGA is a gasoline ETF but they roll over futures contracts each month and the fund seems to take a hit when the roll occurs … thinly trades too.

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  20. Oxy Moron

    Suddenly, Shanghai up 1%. Odd, no?

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  21. JJ2000426

    Yup, overnight Shanghai composite index went from down more than 5% to now up 1.2%. Is it odd? Not at all. Too much paper fiat money chasing too little assets that have real value. The huge amount of money is in panic mode and could not find a safe place to hide.

    Extreme volatility will continue in the market place. So don’t take any big move as suggestion of any trend change. They don’t. Fundamentals don’t change overnight.

    Commodity is still bull and US dollar is still bear.

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  22. DPeezy

    Thank you for the linkage.
    Attendance has jumped almost 2-fold.

    If only my other job also gave me the day off on Friday!

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  23. ALEX

    Cramer does it again SAYS GOLD $1600. LIKE GOOG $1000 NYX $250 GS $300 AAPL $300 DOW 14700
    Cramer said BUY RL AT $90 THEN SAID the bottom was in at 70 NOW $40
    THE MARKET HA OFFICIALLY MADE A FOOL OUT OF J CRAMER
    Cramer’s ‘Mad Money’ Recap: The Bull Is Back

    all his (cramers) picks down the drain-how he made millions?? pure luck and inside info and help from CNBC who allow him to pump the stocks on the air
    Let’s not forget he manipulated stocks like most hedge fund managers, conspired with other hedge fund managers and like he said he had insider info. Since he’s out of the loop ….
    http://moneynews.newsmax.com:80/money/archives/st/2007/3/20/220755.cfm
    Someone Explain Why/How Cramers Picks Rise BEFORE he talks about them…. Watch the show. Watch the ticker scroll and see what stocks are rising. Every stock he features is already rising before he talks about them. The show is taped. Someone is getting his picks in advance. How else could this happen?

    He knows NOTHING, He knows Nothing, He knows NOthing, He knows Nothing, He knows Nothing, He knows Nothing, He knows Nothing, He knows Nothing, He knows Nothing, He knows Nothing, He knows Nothing, He knows Nothing,He knows NOTHING, He knows Nothing, He knows NOthing, He knows Nothing, He knows

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  24. Juice

    Ever so quietly, as we sleep, the Chinese market has crashed & bounced to close up.

    The dollar is up, ruining the price of commodities across the board.

    Good start for DUG, SMN.

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  25. Juice

    Written over 2 years ago by our/the lone politician who gets the big picture.

    Prophetic, yet the status quo & its mainstream media crushes him at every opportunity.

    We had our chance, now we will pay.

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  26. cuervoslaugh

    According to marketwatch.com (confirmed via Intl Herald Tribune and FTAlphaville) AU is dropping. Futures edging towards $900

    http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?column=Indications

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  27. larry

    Alias: BPOE

    Jim Cramer is a used up But Plug and a Cort Jester. His wife is the best trader in the family. She mastered the Art of Trading. He has gone from a great Hedge Fund manager [not a trader]. To a CNBC Yenta!!! He is fooled by randomness. They know nothing.

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  28. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Thanks employee8 on uga.

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  29. JakeGint

    Cuervo Gold — no story attached.

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  30. Jim Cramer

    BooHOO!!!

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  31. Astrologer

    The beginning of 2008 was the poorest start of a year in a long time, the financial markets were shattered violently and the stock markets dropped sharply. This has not really been a surprise, the danger of a January weakness was also mentioned in press interviews, e.g. in the December issue of Germany’s leading market magazine “Börse online”. The ‘malefic’ responsible for the timing of the turbulences is without doubt the dwarf planet Pluto, at the top of the page it’s depicted with its main moon Charon. In Roman mythology Pluto is the lord of the realm of the dead and the lower world (Greek equivalent: Hades) and Charon the ferryman to the realm of the dead.

    Pluto symbolizes death, rebirth, karma, power, transformation, intensity, war, trauma, fanaticism, the occult, the crowd, the collective. In a nutshell, Pluto is the principle of destruction and a malefic comparable to Saturn. The impact of Pluto often triggers painful events and crises, it brings the suppressed and archaic to the surface. This symbolic death planet was activated several times the past months, and you wonder how many skeletons are still hidden in the closet… Relating to the financial markets, Pluto rules these two markets:

    (1) bonds, obligations: this is also the link to the subprime crisis

    (2) natural resources in general but especially the strategic/ war-affine commodities gold and oil: from a historical perspective, gold is the traditional ‘metal of violence’ being the cause for many wars; oil is the most important reason to start a war in newer history, already WW1 had a strong oil background as the excellent analyst and best-selling author William Engdahl writes (http://www.plutobooks.com/cgi-local/nplutobrows.pl?chkisbn=9780745323091&main=&second=&third=, see also http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=7529).

    In general, there are three times when a planet is very powerful and dominating the world for some time, the window is +/- a few years:

    (1) A planet is most dominant when it’s discovered: this is a unique event, so it’s most extra-ordinary.

    Pluto was discovered in early 1930 when the world economy was at the beginning of the most severe depression in the history of capitalism. At the same time dictatorships and especially fascism were gaining ground very fast in the late 1920ies and 1930ies (dictatorships & fascism are Pluto’s ‘preferred’ political systems). The US banning gold in 1933/34 (until 1975) also marked the victory of the conspiracy of the illuminati/ high finance over democracy, since that year one has to label the US rather a plutocracy than a democracy. Wikipedia offers the following definition for plutocracy: “Plutocracy is a government controlled by that minuscule percentage of extremely wealthy individuals found in most societies.” On the scientific level the most destructive invention in human history was made in the 1930ies: the atomic bomb (the idea was born in 1933, Leó Szilárd’s patent in 1934). So the Pluto principle of destruction can be easily found on all levels: economic, political, scientific.

    There is a special case that never happened before 2006: in August 2006 Pluto lost its status as a normal planet and was re-classified as a dwarf planet. This happened, by the way, almost exactly 76.6-years (37 x 108 weeks) after its discovery. In the spring of 2006 I found out that we are repeating history with a cycle of 76.6 years and this Pluto event did fit almost magically.[1]

    So what are the parallels between 1930ff and 2007ff? Certainly more than you would guess (and probably wish). In both cases we are at the beginning of world-wide depression that evolved deflationary in the 1930ies (the natural outcome) but today’s 100% fiat money system should end in a hyperinflation. In the past year we witnessed events and indicator readings that haven’t recorded seen since the 1930ies (e.g. see http://www.shadowstats.com/article/265). Even very specific events are repeating, too, both the crisis in the 1930ies and today started with a collapse of an Austrian bank with the headquarters in Vienna, Austria (Vienna is considered to be the heart chakra of Europe, i.e. the subtle center of the continent, which explains its central role):

    In May 1931 the Creditanstalt declared bankruptcy, the largest bank default by that time.[2]

    In May 2006 (almost exactly 76.6 years after the stock market crash of October 1929) the Austrian BAWAG would have gone bankrupt without a government bail-out, after Refco (2nd largest corporate scandal in history) had filed for chapter 11. BAWAG and Refco had close ties.

    On the political level both around 1930 and 2007 there was/ is a rapid increase of fascist sentiment trying to abolish civil rights, today mostly represented by the Bush regime since 2001. The usual strategy is that governments abuse inside jobs initiated by themselves (the Reichstag fire respectively 9/11) as an excuse to cut civil rights and abolish democratic rights. The warmongers call the shots, the propaganda (both on the economic and political level) is getting more and more ridiculous. Naomi Wolf describes the typical model how democracies are transformed into dictatorships: “Fascist America, in 10 easy steps.”[3]

    In the 1930ies there was a racist Jew-baiting, today the agitation is mainly against the Muslims, which can be explained with the different sign placements of Pluto: in 1930 Pluto was in Cancer, the sign Cancer presents home (land) and the genetic roots while Pluto in Sagittarius the past years is the symbol for belief and religion. In the 1930ies the nuclear bomb was invented, today the US are threatening to nuke Iran. And as Warren Buffett already said: the US$ 516 trillion OTC derivatives (notional value) are today’s weapons of financial mass destruction.[4]

    Uranus, the planet of liberation, revolution and inventions, was discovered in 1781, what happened during this time if you give or take some years? The dollar was created in 1775, 1776 is usually accepted as the beginning of capitalism and in this year the US started their independence war.[6] As a matter of fact, Uranus is the principle of the free market economy because the only factor that creates real wealth over the long haul are innovations. The Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter coined the phrase “creative destruction by the free entrepreneur”. The political orientation of Uranus is free democracy.

    Neptune was discovered in 1846 during the time of romanticism. In 1848 Karl Marx published the “Communist Manifesto”, the political ideology of Marxism based on nothing but illusions is very Neptunian indeed. Communism was/ is governed by the Saturn-Neptune cycle. The political system (“New World Order”) aimed by the political elite (illuminati) is a combination of Neptune (communism) and Pluto (dictatorship, full control). For instance, the EU commission is but a copy of the structure of the Politburo of the Soviet era, which of course allows interesting conclusions…

    (2) A planet is also powerful when it’s aspecting the Galactic Center (GC) at 27° Sagittarius, the conjunction (0°) is the strongest activation: the transits of the slow planets (Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, and Pluto) over the Galactic Center in the past half century have always triggered a kind of a crisis.

    The conjunction of Pluto and the GC happens every 248 years, the last instance was in late 2007. As a matter of fact, the first time I wrote about this coming key event was 2001 (http://www.amanita.at/e/reading/01/e-0103-galactic.htm, http://www.amanita.at/e/reading/01/e-0104-galacticgold.htm). Pluto rules gold and oil, both markets have done extremely well over the past year. This constellation was fine-tuned by Venus passing over the GC on January 21, 2008, on this day the market appeared to have no bottom. The 2nd most important angle after the conjunction (0°) is the opposition (180°): in the early 1910ies Pluto was in late Gemini opposite to the GC in late Sag. This marked the one of the most perfidious crimes in history and the final victory of Plutocracy: the formation of the Fed – which is an unconstitutional institution and as ‘Federal’ as ‘Federal Express’. Needless to say, in 1914 WW1 started. US president Woodrow Wilson who signed the Federal Reserve Act later admitted:

    “I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated governments in the civilized world. No longer a government by free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men.”

    The founding fathers recognized the danger, e.g. president Thomas Jefferson, principal author of the Declaration of Independence, warned:

    “If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.”

    The 3rd most important angle after conjunction and opposition is the square (90°), Pluto squared the Galactic Center in 1970. 1971 was the year of the most momentous decision since Bretton Woods (1944) as US president Nixon closed the gold window. Therefore, we have a 100% fiat money system since 1971 and as a consequence the past 37 years have been more inflationary than the previous two thousand years combined…! Unrecognized by the public, the closing of the gold window in 1971 was a hidden state default of the US.

    When the liquidity planet Neptune (named after the sea god in mythology) went over the Galactic Center in the early 1980es, we saw the inflation high (and bonds low) of the 20th century and the low of the stock markets (inflation-adjusted) of the 2nd half of the 20th century.

    And when Uranus, the planet of volatility, surprise and invention, passed over the GC in 1987-88 we experienced the sharpest crash in history. The previous conjunction coincided with Einstein publishing the relativity theory in 1905, probably the biggest scientific breakthrough of the 20th century (Newton science is Saturn but the new paradigm is Uranus, e.g. chaos theory). Another effect of this transit was the bear market in 1906-07 that almost halved the Dow.

    (3) And finally, a planet is potent when it’s on the ecliptic which is the plane connecting sun and earth, then the planet is in conjunction with its own planetary node which happens twice each revolution (http://www.astrologyhoroscopes.info/planetnodes.htm2%5D).

    Pluto’s nodes are at 19° Cancer/ Capricorn, due to Pluto’s orbital eccentricity this transit is not a regular event, it’s approximately a 90/ 160 year alternation cycle. The last touch of the ecliptic were the early 1930ies around the discovery, so what was said above does apply here, too. The next conjunction of Pluto with its nodal axis is 2017-19, which can be expected to a time of maximum global destruction.

    Neptune (node 11° Aquarius/ Leo) crosses the ecliptic every 82-83 years, the last time after WW1 when many countries suffered from a very high inflation and Germany even from an outright hyperinflation (ended in1923). Neptune is also ruling low immunity (it’s the antagonist of Saturn that is ruling the immune system), the Spanish flu 1918-20 was the largest pandemic of the past centuries which killed 25-100 million people or about the same as the Black Death. In the past years Neptune also went over its node which explains why global inflation was never as high as in the 21st century (although the inflation numbers are heavily doctors in many countries, especially in the US).

    Interestingly, at the time of their discovery Uranus, Neptune and Pluto were all rather close to the ecliptic which could suggest that points 1 and 3 are usually connected.

    In the night of January 25th/ 26th Pluto entered the sign Capricorn where it stays until 2024. An interpretation rule independent from the sign is that the ingresses of the slow planets Uranus, Neptune, and Pluto frequently create instability in the 12-18 months before, i.e. when the planet is in the final degrees of a sign when it’s often “void-of-course”. Void-of-course periods do coincide with recessions and stock market lows. It’s like manually changing gears when driving a car, you have to throttle when are in a ‘void’ for a short time. Without doubt, 2007 was characterized by a lot of instability, one of the many reasons being the ingress of Pluto into Capricorn in January 2008 – although this crisis window is now closed. Actually the remainder of the year 2008 is dominated by soft signatures suggesting the situation is calming down. 2008 should be very different than 2007 or 2009. 2009-11 is a double crisis window because both Uranus and Neptune are transiting the last degrees of a sign (then this window is closed until 2017-18). It’s worth mentioning that the previous instability window was the 12-18 months before March 10, 2003, as on this day Uranus entered the sign Pisces. Needless to say that this window ushered in 9/11, a global recession and bear market and the start of the last war (Iraq war March 18, 2003).

    The bottom line is that the last degrees of a sign require mankind to finish off with the past and this indeed was a dominant topic of the past year. A sign change as in late January 2008, however, brings in new energy, mankind is again able to focus on the future and new projects and not on the past. So it’s no surprise that the first 1-3 years after a sign change (and partly longer) are commonly beneficial for the economy and politics.

    What do the signs Sagittarius and Capricorn represent? The table below offers a comparison.

    Pluto in Sagittarius 1995-2007
    Capricorn 2008-2024
    basic sentiment happiness, hope, mania, optimism
    cautious, fearful, defensive, pessimistic

    basic tendency expansion, growth, abundance
    contraction, scarcity

    symbolism endowment (of life) with meaning, community, values, goal orientation, freedom, philosophy, religion
    discipline, perseverance, steadiness, order, concentration, hard-nosed, karma, laws, norms, control, technology

    economic/ business free trade, globalization, free enterprise, dismantling trade barriers
    restriction of economic freedom, (re-) nationalizations, prices fixed by the state and not by the markets, centrally planned economy, re-erection of trade barriers

    economic confidence & tendency to take risks high
    low
    role of the state rather irrelevant, capitalism
    dominant, decisive, planned economy

    stock markets manias & overvaluation
    realistic to low valuations

    political political correctness/ “do-gooders”, religious-philosophical topics dominate, terror by fundamentalists
    discussion focused on absolutely necessary topics, restriction of freedom

    challenge for companies How can we sell into supersaturated markets?
    How can we still produce in spite of the problems, limitations & bottlenecks (e.g. lack of commodities)?

    sectors global & multinational companies, luxury goods, export – import, sports goods, gambling, clothing (for men), wholesale, ethical investment, travel and transport (tourism, airlines), growth companies, consumer, services
    blue chips, public administration & bureaucracy, industry (esp. heavy industry), construction, hardware, commodities, agriculture

    In 1994 the stock markets experienced the longest correction of the 80ies and 90ies and with the ingress of Pluto into Sag on 1/16/95 the real mania started: the Nasdaq 100 index rose from below 400 points in 1994 to almost 5000 points in 2000. Besides, the year 1995 marked the breakthrough of the internet as one key element of globalization.

    One of the characteristics of the Saturn-ruled sign Capricorn is bureaucracy and planned economy. In 1989 the Eastern bloc collapsed under the very remarkable triple conjunction of Saturn, Uranus and Neptune in the sign Capricorn. Uranus and especially Neptune dissolved the Capricorn structures. For world politics, 1989 was without doubt the most important year in the 2nd half of the 20th century due to the extra-ordinary constellations the events were foreseen by some astrologers albeit almost no one did pay attention because the end of communism of the Soviet Union seemed surreal to political observers without the necessary astrological background.

    The market that is currently almost the only mechanism to set prices and distribute goods should be partly replaced in the coming 15-20 years by other means, e.g. coupons. In the past years some states have started to re-nationalize key industries. The privatizations of the past 20+ years have been touted as a ‘progressive’ policy but reality looks different: from a historical perspective, privatizations have been a means to avoid or at least postpone an approaching state default!

    Viewed from the sun (heliocentric), Pluto enters Capricorn on 7/19/08, viewed from earth (geocentric) there are two ingresses due to the retrograde period, one at the beginning and one at the end of the year. The United States are for me a Sagittarius country while Capricorn is more associated with China which is the 2nd oldest state on the planet, after Egypt. So the transit of Pluto as the planet of power from Sag into Cap certainly paraphrases the ongoing power shift from the US to China. There are numerous signs that the US empire is crumbling.[8] Interestingly, two symbolic events happen near the sign change of Pluto in July 08: first, in June 08 Bill Gates, the founder of one of the most valuable US companies and the symbol of the American dream, is (semi-) retiring. Second, in August 08 the Olympic Games take place in China. Another key event could be the withdrawal of the US army from Iraq in fall 2008. And last but not least it’s a nice synchronicity that PetroChina is replacing Exxon as the company with the highest market capitalization, both being oil companies (= Pluto).

    The cycle of civilizations (rise & fall) is typically 220-240 years long, which approximately equals one revolution of Pluto (247 years) and is also close to a higher vibration of one Venus cycle (225 years).[5] The scarcity of raw materials is clearly on the horizon, in particular of the commodity #1 for the capitalistic society: oil. Robert Gover expects the most serious depression in the history of the US 2008-19, and I concur.[7] This should throw the nation back to the level of a 3rd world country, the country should also return to the isolationism policy of the 19th century. Politically you have to be prepared for an Orwellian police state during the Capricorn transit, this is a key element of the New World Order plans.

    Saturn and the sign Capricorn have another traditional meaning: age. The revolution of Saturn of about 30 years is about the length of one generation. Is it just a coincidence that according to Harry Dent the West reaches the top of the generation cycle in 2008-9 with the ingress of Pluto (= the mass) into the sign Capricorn (= age), a long-term growth top?

    Analyzing the sectors it’s obvious that those industries that have profited most from globalization will also suffer the most. Tourism and transport (especially airlines) will have a hard time when oil is getting extremely expensive. Instead, the “dirty” sectors” (industry, commodities, agriculture) are favored by the global trends.

    ——————————————————————————–

    [1] http://www.amanita.at/e/reading/06/e-0610-766.htm

    [2] http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/a-list/2005w04/msg00043.htm

    [3] http://www.guardian.co.uk/usa/story/0,,2064157,00.html

    [4] http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a58EF32GpHeg

    [5] http://www.billmeridian.com/BillMeridianSarrubiStocksandCommodiites.pdf

    [6] Adam Smith’s “Wealth of Nations” published in 1776 is usually taken as the start of capitalism; moreover, the illuminati were founded in 1776 by Adam Weishaupt in Ingolstadt, Germany

    [7] http://www.robertgover.com/artical-may.html

    [8] http://www.commondreams.org:80/views07/0202-26.htm

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  32. JakeGint

    Brucie, that site’s server must be powered by hamsters, too.

    No linkee.

    _____________

    WTF with FED??

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  33. JakeGint

    Hope you stuck with FXP, Fly.

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  34. Gunners

    I think i’m going to sell this rally in financials. anyone else?

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  35. BOOMER

    Why do I want to go 300% long here? I am seriously itching to get drunk and buy stocks. I am walking away for a while.

    Strange, after weeks of relative detachment…

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  36. JakeGint

    Gunners… just shorted more FED at $30.15.

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  37. JakeGint

    Boomer… apparently 40 days in the desert are not long enough…

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  38. BOOMER

    No shit, Jake. I shut it all down. Goin’ to drink hot hot coffee, maybe grab a biscuit. See y’all in an hour.

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  39. Shorty

    Is TMA going out of business? Seeing how the FED doesn’t want to let some companies go under, I gambled a little bit on TMA around $1.50

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  40. Mushroom Stamp

    I don’t see MON making new highs any time soon. Selling the 130 calls for April.

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  41. JakeGint

    Stamp, why so far out of the money? Is that at Nicholas Taleb strategy?

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  42. JakeGint

    Shorty,

    You should be out already.

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  43. JakeGint

    I thought to myself: “Oh, they are trying to pin CLaMS at $15 for opex.”

    Then I realized, “Oh, CLaMS doesn’t HAVE any freaking options!”

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  44. TraderCaddy

    The NDX 100 is really sucking wind here. Q’s are only up .14 and QID is only down .60%. Have a finger on the buy QID button.

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  45. Mushroom Stamp

    JakeGint,
    Because I have a 95% chance of making 100% profit, roughly

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  46. JakeGint

    Stamp… I get it, but the 5% chance is a doozy, given the amount of calls you need to sell to make it worth your while.

    Black Swan in reverse… White Swan?

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