iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,396 Blog Posts

Are We Priced In?

Usually, prior to a Fed decision meeting, the markets flatline. However, as you can see, optimism, coupled with good earnings at [[LEH]] and [[GS]], is catapulting stocks higher.

The conundrum: “is the rate cut already priced in”?

For the day at least, I believe there is 200 points of foamed mouth upside, with 400 points of downside. Incredible volatility makes everyone nervous.

So, with those odds (at least in my head), I will take a shot and short stock, up at these levels.

No matter what the Fed does, DO NOT execute any trades, until 3:15, unless you’re into gambling. It’s okay to do something prior to the meeting. However, immediately following, often times there is a lot of misdirection at play.

With my money, I am buying [[SMN]], [[SRS]] and [[DGP]].

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25 comments

  1. JoeyBagOfTricks

    Armageddon is priced in.

    Or not.

    Developing…

    ps: after 3 cups of Peets Coffee and 7 Monster Drinks does it really matter?

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  2. BOOMER

    I like me that Peet’s Coffee

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  3. Juice

    Bulls trying to price in the 2nd coming. If JC don’t show, down we go.

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  4. BOOMER

    I’ll bet a cup of peet’s they lower by 50 bps, with extra liquidity measures taken… need to save bullets ben does.

    what do you think, yoda?

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  5. Leawoodblues

    Gambling – yes
    Short XLE
    Long SMN

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  6. BOOMER

    sounds like inflationary bias

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  7. Ben B.

    I’m going to cut so much that everyone realizes that I know how severe the problems are, and they’re horrible…
    But I’m going to make sure to cut enough to cause the investors to freak out and never want to own another stock in the US, or the US dollar again.

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  8. Juice

    The bulls will try to regroup before the bell & keep it going but come tomorrow morning, I think they sober up a bit.

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  9. Big Mike

    Currency market is crashing relative to the $, they were obviously priced in 100 basis as were the equity market…why the fuck is the MARKET UP?

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  10. nullpointer

    ok mr market, where you gonna get your next crack rock from?

    i dont even know if you will make it to the 50 day this time….

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  11. Big Mike

    OHhhhh whos going to short LEH????

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  12. Gunners

    i’m still short LEH from before. Didn’t add anything.

    Lots of choppy trading right now. hold off for another 30 minutes.

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  13. Q4

    Holding LEH short

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  14. Big Mike

    They mentioned “inflation” 5 times in a fuckin paragraph. That can’t be good for the market…longs that is…

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  15. CubsRock

    It’s nice to be in cash, but it’s really tempting to buy this dip. Seems a lil overdone over 25 bps. Bunch of crackah jacks.

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  16. Gunners

    jeez louise,

    this market be ka-raaaazy

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  17. jeff

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  18. minifly

    wtf about gold? what’s going on with it, fed cuts, dollar drops, so does gold? People ready to put their money to work so they’re cashing out gold?

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  19. JoeyBagOfTricks

    Maria BarTOOLromo for Fed Chief!

    Next stop, the credit companies pay consumers to borrow money.

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  20. Mushroom Stamp

    Is there a way to get short oil via an etf? I know about DUG but I want to be able short the commodity itself buy buying an etf.

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  21. minifly

    as in oil futures and contracts? USO “seeks to reflect the performance of the spot price of West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma by investing in a mix of Oil Futures Contracts and Other Oil Interests. ”

    It has options, so you can buy puts or short it if you want.

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  22. Big Mike

    Short oil my friends, big time…but via DCR and not DUG…$$$ much stronger than expected, and no oil fundamentals to back this 110/barrell shit up…

    MASSIVE long call interest in XLF…Financials heavily oversold…play the bounce until we start to go lower again.

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  23. Mushroom Stamp

    thanks big mike, i am looking, chart looks good to go long DCR

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  24. pn

    looks like IBD’s follow thru day…

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  25. Sueblimely

    Huh… Slightly addled, but on the whole I like this post. You’ve got some fresh ideas. But please, write more lucid.

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