Go ahead, keep on buying. As far as I’m concerned, today was a very bad day for the bulls. We need a flush-out. This was not that.
Erroneously, the asshats in charge were propping stocks higher, as if it will stop the melt down. It will not.
The crisis is in full motion and it’s too late to stop it. I compare it to a runaway train, with no brakes, heading for a dynamite factory. An egregious train track blueprint, indeed.
Tomorrow, I suspect the buyers will claim, ad nauseam, that today was the bottom—thanks to a high vix reading.
Look, I’m not saying we are heading for total collapse. All I’m suggesting is the financial crisis is far from over.
Despite today’s Dow run, “The Fly” was up 2.66% on the day.
Top pick: Short [[MOS]]
Stolen from: Barry
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I cannot BELIEVE maria and co are calling (asking) for a bottom. ON LIVE FUCKING TV. what ass-clowns.
I have “indicators” positing a bounce in the next week or so, but that isn’t a bottom for christs sake.
and they could be wrong.
…with no brakes…
fixed.
Is there a good chance of us finishing in the green tomorrow with a large rate cut plus buying from “bottom dreamers”?
Fly,
You got the balls to short BSC @5? Obviously those poor people are holding their stock hoping somebody comes over and bid BSC at 60 (clear desperation shown here, no joke).
$5 bucks fed cuts 75 instead of 100 with an easing stance, with an addition to an increase in both TSAL, TAF, Repos.
Anybody watching UBS? looks like they are fucked like citi.
^gl finding shares of bsc
Looks like the dow went out flat after all. Holy poop.
Why was the Dow up so much vs rut & s&p?
i know i tend to be a tin-foil hat guy, i admit it.
but i question the whole eliot thing, followed days later by JPM stealing BSC with the govt back-stopping the entire deal.
I suspect JPM will be one of the most important stocks going forward. If they fail, the USA goes down the tubes & takes the world with them.
There used to be a time I thought conspiracy theorists were stupid, because it implies our leaders are capable enough to pull off all kinds of bizarre shit.
But if it was revealed, in years hence, that the markets were manipulated in 2008 for political reasons, I would nod in silent agreement.
Interesting Dow Component breakdown:
Up: 3M, AmEx, AT&T, BOA, XOM, GE, HP, Intel, IBM, J&J, JPM, Merck, MicroS, VZN, etc
Down: Alcoa, AIG, Boeing, CVX, Citi, Dupont, GM, McD’s., Disney
Flight to quality?
Later losers,
Off to eat some corned beef and cabbage.
This was NOT the wash out. It is coming and when it does I’ll finally go on vacation.
To the victor go the spoils. Meats and cheeses for all the people.
Closer
BSC closes around $4. Odd, no? Bought some BSC calls.
So, it has been suggested that BSC was highly leveraged – 30 to 1 – and dealt heavily with hedge funds. SKF down tomorrow to present a buying opportunity?
Dollar in the crapper + stock market crash = serious ass pounding. I don’t see that treasuries are much better. Is the solution shorting this market? Whatever.
Joe Lewis says the deal is “derisory” and “egregious” and predicts it will not go thru.
Will the PPT require all Fed officials and bank presidents to put 85% of their net worth into JPM to avert a disaster?
JPM too big to fail, right?
I agree that the bottom is not coming, but why not wait until after the fed cuts and there’s a breif rally until you sell the hell out of stuff… VIX is pretty high
Q — nice choice. I didn’t know Lisa Bonet had done anything after her breakup with Lenny Kravitz.
Hey, it doesn’t imply that our political leaders can pull something off.. it just implies that they aren’t really leaders, but followers.. they aren’t really in control, but puppets of a corrupted system. I mean there’s lots of different methods that could lead to a conspiracy, the one you’re talking aboutt is to manuever around the system… this is the LEAST likely, and I understand why most people say people are nuts….
But there’s the conspiracy that we never really were free, it was just a plan to avoid a real revolution that england feared… that they could no longer rule overtly anymore, so they had to do it covertly, through fake officials and leaderheads that were puppets. Maybe only a few knew about it. I find it odd that the Brittish have a statue of George Washington the supposed “traitor”… and that so many founders were masons, which to have a masonic lodge requires an approval by the queen.
Then there’s the possibility that our government was “bought” . One in which JP Morgan was using his influence to try to buy it and the fed came to “save” use from it, another where JP Morgan was teamed up with the other central bankers, and another where the Rothschild own every central bank on the planet, or that they are puppets of a “supreme” leader, that knows that he can’t show his face and be known as a leader and ruler, that no one can know that he’s dominating us all, and he has technology 200 years more advanced than what we have. Or else there’s a revolution and his head is the first at target.
Yeah, at one point I thought conspiracy theorists were just nuts, but I have seen some do so much research and actually have a legitimate case that you can’t prove false anymore than you can prove gravity false. You can’t prove it true either, but you can’t prove anything to be 100% “true”. I’m not saying they’re right, but it certainly is a possibility, some much more than others. It wouldn’t surprise me if truth was stranger than fiction.
JPM accounted for 37 of the Dow’s 21 points today. Odd, no?
Look at the S&P and the Naz and that will tell you the state of the market.
From a Yahoo article:
Close your eyes.
It’s summer of ’09. You’re standing in line at the Apple store, with a shiny new iPod Touch in one hand, and a shiny new debit card in the other. The debit card says “United States Treasury” on it and you just got it in the mail last week.
Sure, you have to pay it back, but at a low interest rate… they’ll just add a little extra to your taxes over a 20-year period, with offsetting tax credits for qualified taxpayers, of course.
And you can’t use it to pay off your bills or to save. Just to buy “necessities”.
Could it happen? Who knows.
Hey — yeah, the iPod would only cost $20,000 at that point.
Jeebus, half of you need an economics class, the other half needs a history lesson. For the conspirator above who decided to besmirch the name of JP Morgan, I recommend the historical work “The House Of Morgan” by Ron Chernow.
The guy was kind of a freak, but he was no puppet master. In fact, he saved the Federal gov’t from itself twice. In the end he was done in by populist dimwits with conspiracy theories. Odd no?
Also, look to the history of Paul Mellon, another good man done in by dimwit socialists.
I meant to throw this in before, when Fly was talking about his “I’ll stay here, you go” post…
Fly giving instructions to his “minions” —
Jake:
Lisa Bonet hasn’t done anything of quality before or after Lenny. Minor flesh wound.
Remember the illiuminatus code of investing…
The secret is within the Federal reserve note…
it’s an acronym
INfrustructure Gold Oil Drugs Wheat Ethonol Treasuries Realestate Utilities Shortsales TrustFunds
I am the eye, I am the eye I am the eye (I am the I am)…
There’s a difference between collusion and rothchild lizard-men. By bringing up wacky ideas you’re undermining the fact that there is very serious collusion in which the Fed is purposefully devaluing our dollar and manipulating the market. Fuck you.
JakeGint,
Excellent clip. I’m going to counter with one on my blog.
SMN, DUG and HCBK. My favorite long term portfolio ever.
I feel like JJ pushing this HCBK on everyone, but when a bank is hitting a new high in this market, you should take notice.
-DT
Short advocates are not very articulate in explaining why the measures being used by the Fed will not work here and now. The Fed has done things here that have heretofore not been seen. We can expect some more creativity in the morning, rather than just a cut of the fed funds rate. I am not sure if anyone really knows what the synergistic effects of the various tools used will be in the next 3-6 months. Today was wacky. How the hell do you have heavy handed Federal intervention in the free market (suspending the free market system) and have that very system react positively? Fucking perverse. Make us feel like free market pussies. How do we look China in the face and wag our free market finger at them? What the hell do we stand for? We could have taken it on the chin and bounced back – builds character. We didn’t need daddy to save us, but the market was ok with that. Leaves me confused about who and who we are as a nation. But alas, it happened. So, what now? Almost lost my excitement, pride, and enthusiasm for this system. Let us fucking fall bitch! I have a son and want him to understand what America is all about. All he will learn from this is that he needs to keep spending and others will take care of the debt if it gets to be too much. I went out today and bought a copy of the Federalist Papers so that I can try and remember what it was all about. Perverse, fucked up, rancid. I am ready to go all cash and travel around this country to try and figure it out. Or, smoke a joint, wake up in the morning, and help to keep the financial machine chugging. Confused.
“I made a buttload of money over the years being a currency wizard trader from my tony digs in the Bahamas.”
“Then, I got a Bear Stearns PCS Broker!”
So Sorry!
BROKER: Can you please respond to this: http://www.thestreet.com/video/10407923/index.html#1459191944
He is calling you out!
Alveri, before you move to Canada, note the words of Bear John Mauldin:
Let’s Get Real About Bear
by John Mauldin, Editor, “Outside the Box”
I already have a slew of emails from people upset about what they see as a bailout of a big bank, decrying the lack of “moral hazard.” And I can understand the sentiment, as it appears that tax-payer money may have been used to bail out a big Wall Street bank that acted recklessly in the subprime mortgage markets.
But that is not what has happened. This is not a bailout. The shareholders at Bear have been essentially wiped out. Note that a third of the shares of Bear were owned by Bear employees. Many of them have seen a lifetime of work and savings wiped out, and their jobs may be at risk, even if they had no connection with the actual events which caused the crisis at Bear. Don’t tell them there was no moral hazard.
For all intents and purposes, Bear would have been bankrupt this morning. The $2 a share offer is simply to keep Bear from having to declare bankruptcy which would mean a long, drawn out process and would have precipitated a crisis of unimaginable proportions. Cue the lawyers.
As I understand this morning, JP Morgan will take a $6 billion write down, which is essentially what they are paying for Bear. The Fed is taking $30 billion dollars in a variety of assets. They may ultimately take a loss of a few billion dollars over time, although they may actually make a profit. When you look at the assets, much of it is in paper that will likely get close to par over time, and the good paper will pay premiums mitigating the potential loss. The problem is, as the essays below point out, no one is prepared to take that risk today.
If it was 2005, Bear would have been allowed to collapse, as the system back then could deal with it, as it did with REFCO. But it is not 2005. We are in a credit crisis, a perfect storm, which is of unprecedented proportions. If Bear had not been put into sounds hands and provided solvency and liquidity, the credit markets would simply have frozen this morning. As in ground to a halt. Hit the wall. The end of the world, impossible to fathom how to get out of it type of event.
The stock market would have crashed by 20% or more, maybe a lot more. It would have made Black Monday in 1987 look like a picnic. We would have seen tens of trillions of dollars wiped out in equity holdings all over the world.
As I have been writing, the Fed gets it. Their action today is actually re-assuring. I have been writing for a long time that they would do whatever it takes to keep the system intact. As one of the notes below points out, this was the NY Fed stepping in, not the FOMC. The NY Fed is responsible for market integrity, not monetary policy, and they did their job. And you can count on other actions. They are going to change the rules on how assets can be kept on the books of banks. Mortgage bail-outs? Possibly. The list will grow.
Yes, tax-payers may eventually have to cover a few billion here or there on the Bear action. But the time to worry about moral hazard was two years ago when the various authorities allowed institutions to make subprime loans to people with no jobs and no income and no means to repay and then sold them to institutions all over the world as AAA assets. And we can worry in the near future when we will need to do a complete re-write of the rules to prevent this from happening again.
But for now, we need to bail the water out the boat and see if we can plug the leaks. Allowing the boat to sink is not an option. And get this. You are in the boat, whether you realize it or not. You and your friends and neighbors and families. Whether you are in Europe or in Asia, you would have been hurt by a failure to act by the Fed. Everything is connected in a globalized world. Without the actions taken by the Fed, the soft depression that many have thought would be the eventual outcome of the huge build-up of debt would in fact become a reality. And more quickly than you could imagine.
As I have repeatedly said, recessions are part of the business cycle. There is nothing we can do to prevent them. But depressions are caused by massive policy mistakes on the part of central banks and governments. And it would have been a massive failure indeed to let Bear collapse. I should note that this was not just a Fed action. Both President Bush and Secretary Paulson signed off on this.
The Fed risking a few billion here and there to keep the boat afloat is the best trade possible today. Their action saved trillions in losses for investors all over the world. It is a relatively small price. If you want to be outraged, think about the multiple billions in subsidies for ethanol and the hundreds of billions of so-called earmarks over the past few years to build bridges to nowhere. And think of the billions in lost tax revenue that would result from the ensuing crisis. I repeat, this was a good trade from almost any perspective, unless you are from the hair-shirt, cut-your-nose-off-to-spite-your-face camp of economics.
The Fed is to be applauded for taking the actions they did. And they may have to do it again, as there are rumors that another major investment bank is on the ropes. I hope that is not the case, and will not add to the rumors in print, but I am glad the Fed is there if we need them.
It is precisely because the Fed is willing to take such actions that I am modestly optimistic that we will “only” go through a rather longish recession and slow recovery and not the soft depression that would happen otherwise.
I got a very sad letter today from a lady whose husband is in the construction business an hour from Atlanta. He has had no work for four months and they are rapidly going through their savings. The jobs he can get require them to spend more in gas to drive to than he would make. He is sadly part of the construction industry which everyone knows is taking a major hit.
But without the Fed action, that story would have multiplied many times over, as the contagion of the debt crisis would have spread to sectors of the economy that so far have seen only a relatively small impact. Unemployment would have sky-rocketed over the next year and many more families would have been devastated like the family above. It would have touched every corner of the US and the globe.
Bailing out the big guys? No, the Fed does not care about the big guys, and only mildly pays attention to the stock market, despite what conspiracy theorists think. In the last few years, I have had the privilege of meeting at length with a number of Fed economists and those who have their ear. They are far more focused on the economy, their mandates for stable inflation and keeping unemployment as possible.
No one who owned Bear stock was protected. This was to protect the small guys who don’t even realize they were at risk. To decry this deal means you just don’t get how dire a mess we were almost in. It is all well and good to be rich or a theoretical purist and talk about how the Fed should let the system collapse so that we can have a “cathartic” pricing event. Or that the Fed should just leave well enough alone. But the pain to the little guy in the streets who did nothing wrong would simply be too much. The Fed and other regulatory authorities leaving well enough alone is part of the reason we are where we are. First, get the water out of the boat and fix the leaks, and then make sure we never get here again.
Sorry about the length, but I thought that was worth posting here.
Jake,
I am going to read it – have not yet done that. But I wanted to respond quickly with “Fuck Canada”. I love this country.
Gapping, maybe you put up the wrong link, but i watched the whole video and never did Cramer say anything even remotely close to calling Fly out.
good call today, btw.
Is it the right link?
First, get the water out of the boat and fix the leaks, and then make sure we never get here again.
Pure hooey, this happens with regularity. The bailouts are not about the “little guy”. The PTB could give a rat’s ass less about the poor innocent “little guy”. I will enjoy the crash. I hope the most corrupt system in the world goes down in flames.
Jon Stewart fucking rules
Sausages,
It seems you have issues no financial poultice can remedy.
___________
Alvari — just a figure of speech, not questioning your love of country.
Somewhat bafflingly, it appears John Mauldin doesn’t quite grasp the concept of “moral hazard.”
And I mean that specifically, because of his usage in that first paragraph — although the above statement might seem fitting as a summary of the whole piece.
Jake,
I know, I just wanted to make it crystal clear how I feel about this country – no offense to Canadians.
WOOD: Sorry my bad, I was trying to post the video of Jim’s fuck buddy James Al-touch-her [sic].
http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid1078966384/bclid1137812485/bctid1459191944
There it is. Atleast I hope that works.
Basically he says smart people are buying today and that billion dollar hedge funds were loading up today and you should go long the Rut and other high beta shit. Completely opposite of Fly. Additionally they had old man river on today from Seaport securities saying this was signaling the bottom, no not “I peed my depends” Jimmy (not Cramer) who appears with Art Cashin.
What are you dude’s opinion of where gold will go?
1,600?
2,000
850?
I say ~1500 this year
Maybe I missed a prior post:
How is it possible that BSC closes near 5 when the JPM offer is at 2. Shorts covering? Is it a bet that Joe Lewis puts in another $300M and buys the whole thing?
the fallen angel serpent coming down from heaven was a historical refferance described first in images and then by right brain thinkers to written text
outerspace with its brilliance of stars and planets (without the polution) was seen as heaven, planets were considered gods and stars were angels
the “son” of god was a spoken word about the sun of god (sunne and sonne same sound) so fallen angels are shooting stars… they got this name because an object with a bright light that came down looking like a shooting star came down and was worshipped by some and seen as evil and powerful.
as they had 1000s of years more advanced technologies, they were seen as “gods” or angels”
the “tree of life” is a reference to DNA and the tree of knowledge is a more intelligent “advanced” DNA…
woman that gave birth through generic manipulation were the “virgins” and immaculate conceptions were common…
I could go on, but basically it all got screwed up and broken when the greatest central library ( tower of babel) got burned and everyone recreated it based on memory.
all main religions are skewed retellings of the same strory
then theres the theories about whether or not the books were really burned and if they were kept by an “elite few” who passed them down through generations and continued to keep books and burn the building throughout history to stay in power and manipulate the masses…
with huge dynasies of kings breeding like crazy to expand their empire and huge families did the earliest dynasties of the pharohsand king david really fail to pass on the throne to a single place?
lizardman – Nice.
Now quit hogging the pipe, and pass it to your left. Must be good shit.
gapping,
When I met James Altucher in person late last year at the Vegas Trader’s Expo, I asked him (over drinks – he had H2O) to pronounce his last name. And verbatim, he said “Al-touch-her”. lol!
The poor boy needed a shave and someone to fix his shirt sleeve under his sweater in this vid. awwwwww!
But! I will tell you this about him… he has brilliant little gray cells, imo.
😉
Happy investing to you!