Despite the pending insolvency at [[BSC]], the market is having a difficult time deciding what it wants to do next. All day, ag related stocks have been robust, led by [[MON]], [[POT]] and [[MOS]], much to my chagrin.
Also, certain retail names are bucking the downtrend, specifically [[GME]], [[ZUMZ]], [[PSUN]] and [[CRI]].
With regards to the financials, it’s bloody carnage, led by BSC, [[LEH]], [[CMO]], [[FMD]], [[KBW]], [[FIG]] and [[NCC]].
Personally, I like my chances long [[DGP]], [[UDN]], [[DUG]], [[SMN]], [[SRS]] and [[SKF]]. However, keep in mind, as a country, the stock market is all we have. This is it, our greatest export.
If you believe in conspiracies, you know the Government will do everything they can to prevent a total collapse. With that being said, don’t be stupid. Take profits when you can and never press your shorts, when they are already down big.
With my money, stubbornly, I will short more MOS, waiting for the inevitable breakdown.
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http://www.billcara.com/archives/2008/03/caras_commentary_community_cha_153.html
Fly,
1) What’s your take on CMO here .. gotten awfully cheap … is it a “safe” bargain or to hot to handle?
2) If the Fed is gunna backstop FNM on 3/28 then isn’t or won’t FNM be a buy soon if not now?
I’d be going long BSC right now… mark my words. Easiest 20% you’ll ever make!
CMO is not safe.
HK Bull:
You have bigger balls than me. I don’t play with fire.
WOW, the put options at 30’s = 900% gain today alone…fuckin A. I’m telling it had to be BSC insiders…nobody could have predict this meltdown, 2 days after the CEO said things were fine.
Insider info, is the way to go…
its no conspiracy that the government will do everything in its power to prevent a collapse
its called survival
Patiently waiting for the Fly to drive another truck full of cash into the East River.
NFZ
Boom,
Beware men bearing Oompah Loompah tans.
Big Mike:
Jp Morgan and the NY Fed knew. If I were the Fed, I’d buy puts too.
What’s wrong with MOS? Why short it? Not a criticism just interested why it’s a good idea.
Fly,
Thx re CMO … Too soon for opinion on FNM (buy the rumor, sell the news)?
Fly,
You adding to your shorts? Even though extremely bearish still, I’m kind of skeptical since VIX, Put/call ratio are exploding; in addition the Fed probably cutting 100 basis points, next week.
I thought it was a genius call to cover ALL my LEH shorts at 42.50 on Monday. god damn it…
Jake – you dont like Bill Cara? I think he’s pretty thoughtful.
I’m just a pleb, but to me, this is not capitulation. The fed is cutting come Tuesday, so adding to shorts now is suicide. If you can ride a bump for a day or three, then hang in there, but I’d be covering now, and waiting till mid week next week.
Buy BSC, and take your profits on SKF. I don’t trade these bullshit US stocks (only Australia and Asia), but my virtual portfolio made stacks shorting BSC tonight, which I swapped for a double long position when she was down 48%.
The market there should be down 3% or more, it’s not, so I’m betting that there’s some big covering coming after lunch in preperation for a mini fed cutting rally early next week.
There ya go, the Aussie living in Hong Kong view of the US market. 😉
Boomer,
Bill Cara was the same guy urging everyone to sell everything and go to cash back in July of 2006 with the Dow at 10700. Even with the current market decline, you’d have been better of in equities. The guy is a permabear who somehow thinks the world financial system will collapse.
The world financial system will NOT collapse. There are 30 or so financial institutions that control the entire worlds financial system and have a vested interest in making sure it does not collapse. They will collude/conspire and do whatever is necessesary to ensure its survival. The bailout of BSC is prime example. They won’t let a major bank fail because it will lead to a domino effect. The SEC will allow these banks to mark assets to whatever value they feel is necessary to prop up the balance sheets. Nobody wins in a financial collapse. Thus it won’t happen.
If you read between the lines as to what has been said, everything that has happened this week in regards to the Fed and the Treasury is to do nothing more but to try and make the massive unwinding in leverage a little more orderly.
Boom, I don’t trust overly tanned people.
Just now on CNBC, Dennis Kneale:
“You know, I just want to keep context in mind because the entire market cap of the New York Stack Exchange is somewhere over 10 trillion dollars. Bear Stearns now has a market cap of 4.5 billion. So, that is less than 1/1000th of the entire market. Yet, I feel that the bear news just gyrating and overwhelming this entire market.”
In response, a dumb old chick wearing red says:
“Well, but it’s, I mean, it’s only, (laughs), it’s only a bail out, Dennis. This is a pretty dramatic event.”
When you see a CNBC chick laughs at you… asshat.
Ruh-roh, Miyagi-san, rooks rike ouah cullency getting leady to kamikazi ouah economy some moah.
That’s what you get for naming your fucking company that deals in the stock markets “Bear”.
Fuck faces.
this afternoon; either up big or down big.
Bot 10 BVDCF (BSC Mar 30 calls) @ $8.30 this morning for “Friday S&G’s”. Closing out before end of day
Even pieces of shit can sometimes make money.
You think this is over? I’ll show you scary. You want emotional extreme? You got it.
half cash here, the rest is split between some longs and shorts. Bisexual investing right now to take advantage of either extreme move we’re about to get in about 10 minutes. This is fun, eh?
Up on BSC buy out rumors… c’mon, what’s the wager? 😀
If I had a dime for every bullish viewpoint Dennis Kneale has made since he was hired by CNBC, I’d have joined Fly in retirement.
What an irresponsible, remorseless tool, of our conspiratorial, socialistic government.
Off with his asshat!
Bullish “third-tier” bloggers beware!
Fly’s Weapons take to the air!
What a fucking day. Tonight’s dooby will be fatter and sweeter than usual.
Sold my BSC calls for 10 and change for a tidy Friday S&G profit. Now they are allowed go to zero.
Gorging myself on my neighbor’s 401K’s guilt free. Tastes like chicken.
O.K. Not entirely guilt free…