Tomorrow the Dow Jones will decline to the tune of 417 points.
You’re welcome.
Odd, no?
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Joined Nov 10, 2007
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418 will be better
Last time I checked your time machine needed a new flux capacitor. (feb 22, no chance of rally)
dow will be up a 100 or so
Yeah, but, I was “meatballed” by CNBC on that day.
Unfair.
not that it matters
Fuck that. Do you wish death upon my account?
I do not make the future. I merely report it.
So sorry.
You are correct sir. 417 is “odd”. It is also divisible by 3.
It’s also the HTTP error code for “Expectation Failed”, which I’m sure is merely a coincidence.
Odd, but symmetrical, and therefore, pleasing.
You do realize that this would mean:
The Beard does NOT win!
HSI’s jumping the gun, but Shanghai’s not convinced. Viz.
The bearded bozo giveth, and taketh too. If you feel it raise your l in the sky.
Futures are red.
Calvino, I only wish you lower prices for your shorts. However, I do ask that you allow me a strong open, so that I can offload some longs on the unwashed. Deal?
Woody, I am hedged out like Steve fucking a Cohen today. My shorts did less damage than my carry trade did good. The only thing I wish is for a stock picking market, this index pounding bullshit is completely out of control. I have at least a third of my money in perma longs, so I am there. I just want the pigs to choke on their own lard and for your and mine good longs to live long and prosper.
Calvino, you are truly a man of many words. I think we’ve got a deal.
FXP looks real nice, last 6 times it hit $85 it banked coin. Will #7 be unlucky?
Thanks Fly. I’ll trade accordingly.
If I give you a bond worth $10,000 and you give me and DIFFERENT bond worth $10,000, how much money has changed hands kids???? FUCKING ZERO! ZILCH! NADA! Liquidity injection MY ASS. The FED just pulled a Short Squeeze Special for all you overdrawn idiots and over extended banks via the bond and treasury markets lately. And yes, let the tankage resume….
Wrong Thick.
A. There is no market for GSE’s.
B. There is a great market for Treasuries.
C. Banks can lever those Treasuries and use the cash for bank shit.
Not going to happen. This financial fantasy world no longer exists. This is not an injection of liquidity people, dont you get it?
This is just a transfer of responsibility, and its BS. The fundamentals are the fundamentals, housing is the cayalyst for horrible things to come. Housing never did, never will, and never can have a ‘quick fix’. Big Ben just dug his hole a little deeper, and now its very obvious that they are scared to continue easing the target…Short the phone book on appropriate entries, and be prudent. Long term picture, this will be the trade of a lifetime for those that handle their trading properly.
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/
this explains what everyone is missing.
bring your time machine in for a tuneup
tomorrow will be down more than today … Friday up HUGE
Sometimes, mixed metaphors can be fun:
(From Understand This’s link)
The Truth is that The Fed has proven they will look the other way, allow, and even encourage their primary dealers to do stupid things while they intentionally drive the price of securities in the exact wrong direction, then come up with “sticksave” after “sticksave” when the unintended consequences are served upon them in a raw attempt to avoid the need to actually force those banks to file 8Ks and engage in what should be Reg-FD-mandated disclosure of the crap on their balance sheets.
The Truth is that The Fed pulled the pin on the next credit market grenade today and stuck it between its legs. It is now praying that it can hold the spoon tight and if EITHER long-bond yields rocketshot (that is, a “disorderly” unwind of people who are in them ensues) OR the spreads between them and agency paper blow further, the grenade will go off, destroying the basis in the swaps they engaged in today. In that circumstance either the primary dealers will be directly trashed or The Fed will have to throw them under the bus on purpose to avoid its own destruction.
WHEN (not if) these truths become apparent to everyone else, don’t say you weren’t warned.
“Understand This” (are you also “Thick Ass?”) —
I have one quibble with your explanation that “no new money has been created” and I think it’s only because we are talking about two different things. You are speaking of a fair exchange of similarly denominated paper. This is true if we do not take into account “market value” of said nominal assets.
IMO, the Fed is exchanging what is in effect, “good money” for bad. IOW — they are “paying too much” for worthless assets. By doing so they are making available more similarly denominated money than is currently available to purchase “market value” property, and thereby cheapening the price of all money already extant.
Now if the Fed were paying in some commodity — say gold — for this worthless shite, there’d be more immediate consequences of this profligacy. Those consequences would redound wholly upon the Fed’s balance sheet, just as buying (or holding) shite has bullet riddled the primary dealers.
But because the Fed is a fractional banking Mustafa, those consequences will redound instead on OUR balance sheets in the form of “the inflation tax.”
Do you see where I’m coming from, or do I have it confused?
Breaking news from Charlie. Abk is being bought by Eliot spitzer. Dick grasso is going to be running it. Langone will be head of cafeteria relations.
They need to move cnbc to Chicago. We don’t let that shit happen. Charlie would be tied up on the floor of the Merc and spit on Chinese style.
From 300 yards, in other words?
QQQQ and QID are up. Weird.
Yen up 84 basis point.
Wax off, flukking Beald!
ALK to zero!
spinning top super predictor pattern printing
DOWN WE GO
“Understand” — correspondance I received from my MBS contact on your link:
I don’t think this dude has it quite right. He refers to the ABX index AAA prices—but those are backed by subprime mtgs. The AAA private label MBS collateral that the Fed will be accepting will be backed by PRIME JUMBO mtgs. There has been no fundamental credit issue with those loans, only a liquidity issue, which the Fed is trying to address. The Fed is not trying to “save†the primary dealers. They are trying to provide some form of liquidity to the “shadow banking†system by making it possible to finance these types of securities/loans by exchanging them for treasuries, which are easily financed. The Fed is in effect encouraging the “shadow banking†system to lend. The author fails to note that the Fed will require a 10% haircut and will be marking all positions to market. The Fed does not care if a smaller, niche broker dealer like a Bear or Lehman goes bust ala Kidder Peabody of Hutton. They do care if the economy is going into the sh**er and their usual tools (lowering the Fed Funds rate) are ineffective because lending rates to the consumer and businesses have not decreased and in some cases have risen.
Many market participants were hoping that the Fed engaged in direct purchases of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac MBS. (which they are empowered to do under law)
My sense is that if the TLSF doesn’t work out well or if the situation gets worse, that will be their next step.
Additionally, there probably needs to be some coordinated fiscal policy similar to HOLC form Depression era days, to address the growing backlog of foreclosed homes.
TMA… seems to have survived a death blow.. from 70 cents to $3 and an upgrade today… was considered a top firm before – thoughts?
Why are FNM and FRE getting beat on today?
Your time machine is fucked. Time to give Woody the reins.
Oh, and nice call on ARWR.
-DT
Spitzer. 11:30 AM. Watch it.
Highly recommended ruminations from an unlikely source.
IMO, our best living playwright.
GRMN is way oversold and getting bid up here.
Fly,
I have some time on my hands (well, and some other things…) could I get a “tab” here?
-ES
Short no more, Gunners is the expert on TMA.
Spitzer is only sorry ’cause he got caught, that’s regret not true remorse. If he hadn’t been caught out, it would be business as usual with an enemies list, hypocrisy with a capital H and hookers with a side helping of hubris.
The time machine is outdated….time for an ’08 model now.
FLY and CRAMER are new contrary indicators.
..spoken like a true woman, boca.
Time machine is in the shitter and far gone. No trade in value either.
I’ll swap the time machine (dsctd according to the wholesale blue book) for some liquid MVIS stock certs that are backed by the SIPC …
It is clear that most, if not all of you have no desire to understand the current situation we face. Everyone grew up with a home increasing in value, parents that had consistent work, a currency that held relative value and purchasing power, properly adjusted tax codes, non-exotic financial schematics represented by your banker actually being down the street , relative isolationism, and in general, a country that was more or less surviving on their own, not on some make-believe credit expansion world that lets a strawberry picker in Watsonville, CA buy a $750,000 for their family. Understand that a HOUSING BUST HAS NO SHORT TERM SOLUTION. This is why the FED has to create contstant ‘stick-saves’ that do nothing. Why do they do nothing? Because the system is BROKEN, and now will self medicate, since the most genius solution that the ‘best and brightest’ in our country can come up with is pretending they are exchanging bad paper for good. HA, that is fucking hilarous. I am trying to help, not to battle or scare. Our country has a chronic syndrome known as self-destructive pride and ignorance. The time comes when you understand that we do not have the power to ‘fix ourselves’ anymore. It was a game, and has now sadly ended. Adjust your trading styles, or figure out the hard way. Have a great 12-18 months why you are continually penetrated through the eye sockets that you still had this last August, but just said, ‘oh, i have a MENTAL STOP, no worries”. 6 months, 12 months, 18 months, 24 months…who knowes, but we will be trading 2003 tapes eventually. I know the reality IS SHITTY, but for the sake of your 401k, UNDERSTAND THIS…
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/2008/03/hehehehehe-you-have-to-love-fed.html
and once again…
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/2008/03/short-bus-rolls-again.html
Do you people ever do your own research??? If you did, you might realize that the most likely reason for this lemming like stick-save liquidity FED rim job is that FREDDIE AND FANNIE ARE INSOLVENT! Why would loan regulations be extended when they got in trouble WITH THE REGULATIONS IN PLACE, now you want to remove them!!?? HA. Obvious balance sheet blow-up scenario about to take place. FREDDIE AND FANNIE have MAYBE 40bips worth of capital supporting their books!! 1/3rd of the home price declines only as of yet? THEY ARE FUCKED if anything gets worse, and the market has not priced any of that IN! WE break big and SOON, and if we bounce on 1270, GET THE FUCK LONG OR GET KILLED, until then, GET SHORT if you are smart. IMHO. THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE. DO YOUR OWN DD.