No more bottom calling. No more “late night negotiations” to buy out the worthless assets of [[BSC]]. No more [[ABK]] rumors. No more tech rally. No more “natural gas is the new oil” rally. No more bull market.
Do not be tricked by the hucksters on television or on the internets. There is no bull market in natural gas. It’s all hype. We have massive supplies and demand is not increasing.
Coal stocks will be halved, once a Democrat gets elected President. Write that down.
Let me re-inform you: We are in a bear market. In bear markets, stocks trade down, all the time. Do not let false hope fuck up your trading positions. Get short.
Like I said before, I perused over many financial balance sheets, last night. Many banks are desperately trying to raise capital, via offering egregiously high CD yields. Be careful of that!
Also, many banks’ interest expenses are outstripping interest income. With regards to [[FED]], [[DSL]], [[KRNY]], [[PHH]] and [[CORS]]: I believe they will go to zero, or close to it.
All of the above banks have massive exposure to bad loans and toxic paper. And, all of them are enduring a decline in deposits. In others words, it’s only a matter of time until they implode, via dilutive financing.
The fuckers from CORS, unbelievably, took half of their cash reserves and bought bank stocks with it. No, I’m not kidding you. They have over 150 million dollars, in about 10 poorly run banks, like [[BAC]], [[JPM]] and [[C]].
As for today’s trade:
I made coin. Too much coin to discuss on this stupid website, which falls victim to all sorts of dumbass bandwidth issues.
Just know this: I am only long 3 stocks. My short exposure is about 125%, including [[SRS]], [[SKF]], short [[BSC]], short [[LEH]], [[SMN]], [[EFU]], [[DUG]], [[REW]] and short [[WM]].
NOTE: “The Fly” is moving ahead to round three of the Madstocks Contest. Is it any surprise that he (“The Fly”) will be #1 seed?
Off to eat many 2 1/2 inch ribeyes.
UPDATE: I’m listening to the [[MVIS]] conference call and I am appalled. First of all, Tokman sounds out of it. Second of all, it sounds like they are pushing back product release to 2009. And, finally, but most importantly, they are fucking laughing on the call. With the stock down 50%, over the last few months, NOTHING should be funny.
Amazing and alarming.
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Does anybody have the feeling that the government is going to fuck us over and purposely inflate the non-farm payroll?
What’s the consensus on this board on the jobs number? negative or positive? Personally, i think a 75k contraction sounds reasonable to me.
And Woodshedder is in the lead in the Southern Conference.
What do we charge for this site?
What? Its free? And we are having egregious bandwith issues?
BOOM, Gameover. Market is headed to zero. I will go beat up a homeless goat now.
GFI @ $16 AH, Fly recommended it last week @ $14.5
Sweet call, looks like it’s going to $18 and could breakout from there.
I will prob regret it, but I grabbed some QLD and UYG this afternoon :/ MER and GS along with Rate cuts will hopefully save my ass.
Why don’t you take some of that amazing amount of coin you are making and get a FUCKING DEDICATED SERVER. The fact that you didn’t start that way to begin with proves you talk a better game than you trade. Otherwise you wouldn’t have this gay ass website anyway. Dumbshit.
GFI power issues may be rectified.
Youranidiot:
What the fuck do I know about internet shit? Shoot, just a few months ago, I was on a blogspot.
By the way: Go fuck yourself.
Calvino:
LULU 🙂
Hope you didn’t fall for that head fake yesterday. This will be in the teens soon, barely legal. Institutions (85%) will sell off to buy back in the teens before the earnings run up in April.
Fly:
I run the West bracket. I’ve been on FED, more fat to trim. NPAs increasing everywhere. One shot, one kill
Funniest moment of the day was IBM reaffirming their earnings for like the eigth time this week and being bitch slapped. Ok we get it!
Fly,
How about HCBK? I know it’s a bank and all, but I’d be interested in your opinion. I have a friend who sells very expensive ($3 mil and up) houses who says that everyone has been getting loans through these guys because they don’t sell mortgages and they’re confident with the company… it’s showing great relative strength versus the other banks.
I’m thinking long term…
-DT
Fly is beginning to sound like Fleck – fm Flecks daily mkt summary :
Leverage Kills!
In the early going today, anything that touched a mortgage was a horror show. Brokers came in for the worst of the selling, due to a double-whammy from Merrill Lynch: It would be closing First Franklin (the subprime-lending unit that it purchased, just as subprime was imploding) and would need to amend the terms on a floating-rate convertible security. Thornburg Mortgage also added to the gloom, as that stock was down another 60% today, to just over a buck. (I think it’s a foregone conclusion that the company will go out of business.)
The Credit Spree: Eligible for a Eulogy
Turning to what, until recently, was the object of so much speculation and focus, the monolines were also under pressure. Ambac, which earlier yesterday traded over $11 in anticipation of its “bailout,” was trading under $8 this morning (down 10%). It may become the first “AAA” company whose stock isn’t marginable if it drops below $5, making a further mockery of the ratings agencies.
And, in potentially bigger news, both Fannie and Freddie were threatening to become teenagers (trading in the teens). Even to someone like myself — who has been prepared for this meltdown in the credit sector and has been talking about it for some time — it was shocking to witness all of the action I saw on my screens this morning.
So, amidst all the daily noise, we should never lose sight — and I cannot stress this enough — of the important facts: Credit is contracting all across the financial system, in America as well as around the globe. And, at the same time, credits are going bad. Both of these problems keep lapping up against each other.
A Structure Fated to Rupture
Our financial system is in a horrible vise: As massively leveraged entities de-leverage, they need to find unleveraged buyers to take their place, and those are scarce. At the same time, this pressures prices for others, causing more margin calls. And, as home prices sink, still other credits (loans) are losing value. The amount of leverage being foolishly used is best exemplified by the Carlyle Corporate Bond Fund, which spent $300 million to buy $22 billion in securities. Bottom line: There is no quick fix, because the problems are too big to bail out.
In any case, the carnage in financials saw the S&P and Dow down just shy of 1% this morning. (The retailers were weak also, on the back of mixed earnings news.) However, the Nasdaq was down only 0.3%, as the Jell-O movers bought tech — thus demonstrating their failure to grasp the gravity of the situation. But then, that’s been the case for over a year, when the subprime piece of the credit bubble first blew up. I’m not sure when denial will completely give way to acceptance, but I don’t think it will be all that far away.
Red-Carpet Walk
As we headed into the last half hour, the action could only be described as brutal, with the indices down 1.5%-2% across the board. If there was any quasi-firmness to be found, it was the province of tech stocks — which weren’t clubbed as hard as other sectors (but that’s a fine distinction). Except for strength in a few mining and oil stocks, it was a pretty clean sweep. I’m sure that those of a bullish persuasion were hoping for a late-day rally to materialize, but that was not to be. The attempted rally fizzled, from where we tanked — to close at the day’s worst levels, down 2%-plus.
Away from stocks, the xera was pounded yet again, trading down to another new low. But that didn’t have a beneficial effect on the metals, as gold and silver declined 1% and 2%, respectively (after having been higher overnight). Treasurys enjoyed a weak bounce. Oil was fractionally higher.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/opinions/cartoonsandvideos/toles_main.html?name=Toles&date=03022008&type=c
Lawsuits and corresponding litigation costs are going to be a major drain as well.
SOUTH BURLINGTON, Vt., March 3, 2008 (PRIME NEWSWIRE) — Johnson & Perkinson hereby announces the commencement of a class action lawsuit naming Ambac Financial Group, Inc. (“Ambac” or “the Company”). Individuals, families, trusts or other entities that purchased Ambac securities between October 19, 2005 and November 26, 2007, inclusive, have the opportunity to participate as Lead Plaintiffs in the currently pending litigation. To do so, you must apply to serve in that capacity by March 17, 2008
“Shoot, just a few months ago, I was on a blogspot.”
Fly where exactly did you go on your biz trip. Arkansas?
Boom I hope you have put’z.
After Hour thoughts- The SMH ETF has jumped over 2% in the After Hours. I bought some before the close @ 28.42 and sold them in the AH at 28.85 and are now @ 29.00. I assume the chip move is based on the news from MRVL.
Game plan is for a good move down in the market after the jobs report and if SMH holds up buy it and the chips with all you have (for a daytrade of course).
PS I know this ain’t going to be popular here with everyone a bear but its time to think outside of the box.
After Hours Thoughts Update- I guess they didn’t like the MRVL conference call as the stock has reversed again and is now down over 4%. SMH now shows unchanged at 28.90 which is still a pretty decent recovery in the AH.
Same game plan.
Will this market
Faint
I’m good, thanks for asking. I cant get over the lack of AH volume, but such a strong price decline. Very strange.
Wrath o’ God action.
Shoulda painted the blood over the lintel.
Whatever happened to Warning’s warning that we were going to 12,400 or something of the sort?
Q4 – no going for hadfakes on Lulu.. I wrote to short the crap out of it right after the inexplicable upgrade .. her dergradation is not finished.
today was a day of fury.. having closed out my bsc short, after telling all that they are insolvent. the day’s action was the huge unwinding of carlyle’s carry trades. could not happen to a bunch of nicer company wreckers and job offshorers. fuck you carlyle, long, hard and painfully. They also unwound a huge position in the aussie and kiwi that were bet against the makoto empire – all day, without pause, from the minute they walked in their office, til they left.
Tuco.. good picking with the MAC call. Assuages the indignity covering certain financials.
Carlyle purchased the company who used to employ my wife. Then Carlyle closed down her office, Feb. 1st. Fuckers.
After Hours Update Part II- It took me several hours, however I finally figured out that SMH gained big in the AH because of Nat. Semi’s (NSM) report.
Same game plan for a daytrade. The best scenario would be a big gap down in the AM with the SMH and various chips flat. That would be a sign.
Fly , can I ask some technical question..
what platform ( tol bank ) do you use for trading ?
when do you usually open your position ( pre market , opening , else ) ?
do you buy limit , conditional , or market the most ?
thanks
Use telegraph and tape reader and foot courier, buy – premarket and after hours only, at ask, or sell at bid. Fill the order on all or none bid. Happy trading Frank.
Looks like we’re headed for a -3% (or slightly more) open over here… I wasn’t planning on setting up my new puts until later today. 24 fucking hours too late!
I knew it along. Calvino is really Fly. Or is it Fly is really Calvino? Similar creative writing style was the give away. Must be the Masters Degree in English from NYU.
I use Pershing and Fidelity.
I never buy pre market and rarely after hours. Often, I use limits. But, I rarely put them far away from the market.
thanks