Forget about the news. Tune it out.
Right now, amidst the rubble, idiots will attempt to run up equity prices. After all, as a country, it’s all we have.
Towards the end of the day, I switched positions and decided to raise money, via covering some short positions and selling some of my double inverse ETF’s. I did not look at my cost basis, since it’s irrelevant. I believe there was some minor losses booked in [[REW]]. But so what?
The big picture is this: Get ready to shoot at spastic zombies who buy stocks. These fuckers, led by “Zombie Cramer,” are everywhere, like a virus. They are NOT interested in the resounding effects $105 oil, $10 natty or $1,000 gold has the the economy.
All they care about is a pending short covering rally in tech.
So, with that in mind, the game plan is simple: Get there early.
If you’re short [[WM]] from $18, like “The Fly,” cover some and buy a few cars with the proceeds.
Bottom line: I have minimal long exposure and aggressively large bets against Commerical Re, via [[SRS]]. Additionally, I will continue to sell short the basic resource sector, since the herd is always wrong, via [[SMN]].
Oil is tricky. I will refrain from trying to figure out that sandbox. And, finally, gold seems easy here, via [[DGP]] or [[GLD]].
NOTE: The announcement of the entirely irrelevant, non- ground breaking deal, at [[ABK]] should shame CNBC and their whoring of rumors ways. I spit on CNBC.
UPDATE:
| TMA Thornburg Mortg discloses receipt of default notice from JP Morgan after TMA failed to meet a $28 mln margin call (3.40Â -0.16) | |
| TMA discloses it has received a letter from JPMorgan Chase Bank (JPM) dated February 28, 2008, after failing to meet a margin call of approximately $28 mln. The letter states that an Event of Default as defined under that certain Master Repurchase Agreement, dated as of August 3, 2006, as amended on February 7, 2007 by and between the co and JPMorgan exists. The letter also notified the co that JPMorgan will exercise its rights under the Agreement. The aggregate amount of proceeds lent to the co under the Agreement was approximately $320 mln. The co’s receipt of the notice of an event of default has triggered cross-defaults under all of the co’s other reverse repurchase agreements and its secured loan agreements. The co’s obligations under those agreements are material. |
And yet CNBC will learn nothing. They will continue to pimp out the rumours, a la network television and their ‘calling’ of presidential election races.
so you are merely lightening up for a reset of shorts? what is your time frame? you thinking hours? days? weeks?
do you plan to add long exposure in the meantime.
Boom:
I will keep you abreast.
Keep a breast for me too, fly.
Nice call on the market going down, asswipe!
I’m loading up on SKF, REW, FXP as a reliable contrarian indicator.
Two for me, please.
-DT
so you’re buying BOOM?
hee hee
earns AH tomorrow! first report after the acquisition. delicious!
WTF?
I can’t blame you for lightening up at the lower end of this trading range. But who the fuck is going to go long in size before Friday’s NFP?
That one report (the NFP) is one of the biggest, if not the biggest bits of economic news available. It is a market-mover.
I’m surprised that there is not more discussion of how to position for the NFP.
the fact that i typed “hee hee” was very gay, and i apologize.
also, my use of “delicious” was egregiously gay. again, i am sorry.
Boomer, did you get my message that 2 musician friend of mine are going to be on Prarie Home Companion, March 15?
Oh, and I should add, the recording that got them their was recorded and engineered by yours truly.
Fridays report will be funny
I wipe my ass on the NFP, the CPI, and every other gubmint report that the ministry of lies turns out. I only go long because I know that the maggots need high prices in order to raise capital. That is why betting on lower short term rates is a no-lose as well. Play the fundamentals at yer own risk boyz & gurlz.
if the heard is always wrong, shouldn’t you short gold?!
Nice call on CWTR
boomer-
How many shares are you going to get for the BOOM er??? You are in bed with that stock and it will eventually cheat on you.
Whatever, NFP will be spun positively by both data manipulation and press tea-leaf-reading bullshit. Too much short interest.
Flyon-glad your back here wheelin on the web. For a day or two I thought IBC was in foreclosure. Scarcely a peanut to be found, egregiously slow bandwith.
Like the new GI Joe look.. Nice
Nice work on the SKF-WM. Is the Govt. going to take over the banks? Maybe that would be a good thing.
Here comes Hillary…..nice work Fucktard….better get used to it.
Haileris, there will be no positive spinning a negative number. None.
If the report shows negative numbers, buh-bye.
You can fool yourself into thinking otherwise. But deep down inside, you should consider what will happen to longs with a negative jobs number.
…locked & loaded…
Fly and The Family Stone
I’m still short out my ears.
TMA crashing.
MVIS conference call tomorrow at 430 ET to discuss Q4 and 2007 results.
If anybody cares or gives a shit the dial in is 888-680-0980.
Boca,
Not checking in like I should. Howsabout that storm this afternoon?
Took all the kids to Gumbo Limbo today to make their annual assessment of the sea turtles and bonnet head sharks. Taking the girls to Arturo’s and then Linda B’s tomorrow night. Maybe I’ll see you– I’ll be the one without the walker.
Kind of glad I held onto that JPM short. Been a long time coming for those fuckers.
Jake, how are the lines (viz., “fat fuckers on parade”)to the attractions?
Shine on you Crazy Dimon.
Hi Jake — hahaha be careful you don’t get hit with somebody’s walker. That was just a normal rainstorm today for us, I never worry unless the yard floods or I lose power (we have a generator though). The Gumbo Limbo center is just north from where I live. Hope your kids had a good time and enjoy the vacation.
Shed — you’re starting to get me worried about staying long through Friday. Although I could be thinking it over too much and should just put stops on every single stock and be done with it.
Boca, don’t think it over too much.
And although I’m sure of my beliefs, I could very well be wrong.
If you can trade in the daytime, I wouldn’t use stops. The news is released before market opens.
With everything else on the economic front decreasing or shrinking, there is no way the jobs report is positive.
I’ve searched for the analysts prediction, but can’t find any. Someone on the board here said he heard +50K jobs. I guess its possible. I know the ADP report came out today, but I haven’t had time to digest it.
Wood: My positions have been long-gold/short-stocks for a while, I’m not fooling myself at all. However, I do think that short interest are a little too big going into this, so I’ve been unloading positions into cash these past few days.
I’m building up cash too.
Sold some shorts and some GLD in that drop yesterday. Looks like I bit a head fake on the GLD sale but you never know when a pullback is real from where I sit.
Stops are worthless in a fast market with big news. If you’re leveraged, then lighten up before Thurs. close, or be prepared to ride it out.
shed, saw that about your friends. cool.
new, depends on tomorrow. i will hold some, but not tens of thousands. ceo is french, and can only be trusted so much.
no offense, DT. you’re “french” too, right?
Haileris, you’ve been on the right side of this, good for you.
From today’s IBD.
Public/NYSE Specialist Short Sales = 12.72
High of 21.00 on 1/18/08 Low of 5.84 on 4/20/07
NYSE Short Interest Ratio is at 9.29, with the 5 year high of 10.30 and 5 year low of 4.48
Bulls=42%
Bears=36.4%
Still too many Bulls, and too few shorts, imo.
I can’t disagree with lighetening up on shorts here. I’m in complete with disagreement with any kind short covering rally, unless the NFP is great.
http://regulationfd.blogspot.com/2008/03/boom-dynaenergetics.html
Tuffy did a run down on BOOM. Very nice analysis. I may be holding more than I planned.
A must read.
Boomer,
No, it’s just another slander that has been cast upon me.
That’s what you get when you threaten “the Fly” with an ascendant blog. He attacks you through proxies and whisper campaigns.
-DT
From today’s ADP employment report. Also, for the naysayers, after the revisions to the BLS data, the ADP report has been very close to the numbers of the BLS.
Nonfarm private employment declined 23,000 from January to February 2008 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment ReportTM. The estimated change in employment from December 2007 to January 2008 was revised down 11,000 to 119,000. February’s decline of 23,000 signals a deceleration of employment growth across businesses of all sizes.
Employment in the service-providing sector of the economy grew 47,000, while employment in the goods-producing sector declined 70,000, the fifteenth consecutive monthly decline. Manufacturing employment fell 40,000 in February after declining a revised 3,000 in January, and marked the eighteenth consecutive monthly decline.
By the way, nice new header Fly.
See those soldiers? I bet at least one of them is gay. I’m guessing the one on the large tank to the right doing the “Staying Alive” dance.
-DT
You know I was kidding right? Not that there’s anything wrong with that.
Gay Dinosaur is not French.
He merely wants a French government.
Boom,
Of course, I’m a kidder too.
Meanwhile, Jakey, nice zing.
Are you going to do what the good people of talk radio tell you to do and vote Hillary if it comes down to her and McCain?
-DT
Wood,
If you check Bloomberg.com under the market data tab, you’ll find the economic calendar which sports all the economic reports and such to be released every day. It states the consensus estimate numbers for all the major reports.
if and when the time comes to short gold…fresh off the griddle are DGZ and DZZ (1x and 2x short GLD)…no vol, no options…
Woodshedder is dead on regarding the NFP report. Maybe I’m reading this wrong, but there seems to be little interest here for that being a major catalyst for the next leg of the market.
Also couldn’t agree more with Fly, oil over $100, Gold near $1000, the banks hiding fuck knows what on their books, going long now would seem like financial suicide… good contrarian indicator perhaps?
Thanks anon- cool. I’m checking it out right now.
Hong Kong Bull- re contrarian: could be. I still don’t think things are bad enough yet for the contrarian play.
I don’t need no guns. I have Gunners and Clint Eastwood protecting my back.
Wshedder, agree, I think we’re going down a fair bit further. My trading plan is to reload on local index put warrants (plus a few select local equity puts) Friday afternoon (my time, early hours of Friday morning your time)
Trader Caddy,
“well, he should have armed himself, if he’s going to decorate his saloon with my friend.”
http://www.ibankcoin.com/ducatiblog/index.php/2008/03/05/hey-bulls-well-you-should-have-armed-yourself/