iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
22,162 Blog Posts

Wait Until You See Those 10-K’s

Today, you got a small preview of what a good 10-k, authored by a very cautious auditor, can do for a stock price: [[TMA]].

This is the reason why you read the blog of a “space alien magician,” and not some queer Dinosaur’s —with a fake office (plastic palm tree and all).

The banks will get hit, on disclosures reported in their 10-k’s. Watch and learn.

Aside from that, today was a great day for the bulls. Frankly, I’m shocked the market wasn’t down more, considering the homo data.

As you know, inflation is out of control, yet Bernanke is a fucking loose cannon, lowering rates to rescue banks. In all fairness, some of you bloggers need to quit blaming Bernanke for all of the markets problems. He didn’t make Joey Bag-o-Donuts take out a teaser rate mortgage and leverage up to buy 10 investment homes.

His candor (Bernanke) is refreshing.

Finally, I’m appalled that commodity related stocks will-not-die. For now, I like [[SRS]], [[SKF]], [[UDN]], [[DJP]], [[GLD]] and [[WBD]] for short and intermediate term trades.

NOTE: Fuck [[WM]] and [[LEH]] too.

UPDATE: [[DECK]] is tanking on great earnings. Which reminds me of the famous quote: “The Fly always wins, even when he appears to be losing, badly.”

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40 comments

  1. T-Pain

    Deck beats and raises, think you are about 6 months premature on this one Fly.

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  2. CubsRock

    HANS crazy reversal. So glad I’m sitting this one out.

    Maybe scalp some DELL?

    Update: Grabbed a lil HANS instead. Need to have some in case of buyout 😛

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  3. The Fly

    DECK will open up at 150.

    Part of the game. Glad I covered most in the 110’s.

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  4. Dinosaur Trader

    Incidentally, I just lit the plastic tree on fire.

    -DT

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  5. CubsRock

    KB Home Chief Executive Jeffrey Mezger says he expects low interest rates and falling home prices will soon lure first-time homebuyers into the housing market.

    Still, he thinks 2008 will be a difficult year for his company.

    He called first-time homebuyers the only game in town this year.

    SRS

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  6. wow

    DECK getting pummelled on good news… ahhhh it reminds me of the good ole days of early Feb 2008.

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  7. ottnott

    Do I see that right? DECK bid and ask down $10 AH?

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  8. The Fly

    Fly wins, again.

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  9. TraderCaddy

    For those Gold Bugs who are interested I believe today was the first day of trading for a 2X Long Gold Exchange traded note (like an ETF) and a 2X Short.
    Symbols are: 2X long- DGP (NYSE)
    2X short-DZZ (NYSE)

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  10. Mushroom Stamp

    Being short the DECK 150 calls has been fun the last few weeks.

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  11. Small Titi

    DJ: Deckers Outdoors Sees 1H Earnings To Grow At Slower Rate.

    Shot themselves in the foot. Reminds me of Chambers from CSCO when he talked about material weakness. There are 3 analysts with a BUY rating, 3 with a Neutral rating. Expect some downgrades tomorrow.

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  12. wow

    Fly, i think we’ll get a real sense of how much balls the bulls have left come Monday…

    I’m not surprised we didn’t end down much more today as around 2ish it looked like everyone expected the late-day homo turnaround and we jumped up to about -70ish or so on the DOW. They tried to run it and it failed.

    Will be interesting to see how much the window dressers are able to keep up their monthly gains for the end of the month.

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  13. ottnott

    Bernanke has made the decision to sacrifice the rest of the economy to defend the financial industry.

    From an intellectual perspective, that might make sense. Massive disruption of the financial industry hurts even sound borrowers and would-be borrowers.

    I think it unwise, however, to defend the industry without making the aid conditional on fixing some of the problems that led to the current mess. The financial industry created, and profited enormously from, the unsound loans and opaque securitization that is now imploding.

    The fly (heh) in the ointment is the threat that inflation will get out of hand. The Fed appears to be hoping that the economic problems will begin to dampen inflation before too long.

    If that doesn’t work? I don’t think there is a Plan B that is both palatable and effective.

    My efftarded take on the situation is that you short the financials if you expect inflation pressures to increase. Given that I believe that China is switching over from a deflationary factor to an inflationary factor in the price of manufactured goods, I have to buy SRS and/or SKF.

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  14. calvino

    Having covered 80% of my short on tampon shoes.. before the call.. i’d like to day FUUUUUUUUCKKKK!!!!

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  15. Big mike

    What I fuckin tell ya!?

    Middle range of EPS, but an expected downgrade in the future. They have to be mentality retarded to raise guidance in a fuckin recession.

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  16. ottnott

    DECK now down $14.

    Much rejoicing by sheep.

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  17. ottnott

    KB Home Chief Executive Jeffrey Mezger says he expects low interest rates and falling home prices will soon lure first-time homebuyers into the housing market.

    Fixed mortgage rates have been going up, not down, and lenders are increasingly basing ARM loan approval on the borrowers ability to handle potential upward rate adjustments.

    And falling home prices will lure buyers the way falling stock prices lure buyers.

    Sorry, KB. More pain ahead.

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  18. Small Titi

    As someone looking to buy a home, with a high 700+ score (almost 800) and 10% down, I was quoted by a credit union for 6.5% on a 30yr fixed. I said no way, I’m not buying until I get 5.5% or lower. The short sale property I’m looking at will just have to sit longer than 198 days.

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  19. ottnott

    Banks are treating their customers the way DECK treats sheep.

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  20. wow

    As someone looking to buy a home as well, I won’t even consider it until prices are around the historical norm for my area which is 3.5ish x income.

    Right now that gets me a shack. If you buy homes based on mortgage rates and prices are above the historical norm for your area, you deserve to lose money. Who the f cares what the interest rate is when you buy, I want a cheap price and will refinance when rates inevitably come down. Overpay for a house in exchange of a low interest rate you lose.

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  21. Juice

    this is for Fly, from his new best bear buddy, Fleckenbearenstien

    Daily Rap for 02-28-2008
    by Bill Fleckenstein

    “The Worst Day Yet”
    Today saw the continuation of bad news on the anything-that-touches-a-mortgage front, as Fannie Mae joined Freddie Mac in announcing good-sized losses. Of course, the green light from OFHEO to create even bigger losses seemed to matter more, because both stocks were higher in the early going, even as the tape was down about 0.75%. The proximate cause for the decline, according to the Lord of the Dark Matter, is that today was “the worst day yet” for that murky arena. He told me that the repo market had ceased to function, and trading in the mortgage market was chaotic at best.
    The Call That Nobody Wants to Receive
    That market’s problems coincided with an announcement this morning from Thornburg Mortgage — that it needed to sell securities in order to meet margin calls (news that sent the stock down about 20%). Thornburg’s problem points to the likelihood that instead oboxscoref the word “subprime” being bandied about as it has been for the last year, perhaps now folks will start hearing more about Alt-A, which is probably going to be the next mortgage shoe to drop.
    Of course, that doesn’t mean the powers that be won’t continue their attempts to suppress any and all price discovery. A knowledgeable observer who studied Fannie Mae’s 10Q yesterday unearthed something that underscores the “dark” in “financial dark matter.” He notes: “They take a DELINQUENT mortgage loan and replace the delinquent part with an unsecured loan in order to circumvent the buybacks and mark to market consequences.”
    Using “Loss Mitigation” to Mitigate the Bad Stuff
    He wasn’t falling for what must have taken several Fannie writers some time to concoct. Quoting directly from the 10Q: “The total number of loans we purchase from MBS trusts is dependent on a number of factors, including management decisions about appropriate loss mitigation efforts, the expected increase in loan delinquencies within our MBS trusts resulting from the current adverse conditions in the housing market and our need to preserve capital to meet our regulatory capital requirements. For example, we recently introduced a new HomeSaver Advance initiative, which is a loss mitigation tool that we began implementing in the first quarter of 2008. HomeSaver Advance provides qualified borrowers with an unsecured personal loan in an amount equal to all past due payments relating to their mortgage loan, allowing borrowers to cure their payment defaults under mortgage loans without requiring modification of their mortgage loans. By permitting qualified borrowers to cure their payment defaults without requiring that we purchase the loans from the MBS trusts in order to modify the loans, this loss mitigation tool may reduce the number of delinquent mortgage loans that we purchase from MBS trusts in the future and the fair value losses we record in connection with those purchases.”
    Yesterday I pointed out the hypocrisy of Wall Streeters describing themselves as capitalists, but praying for socialism to bail out their risk-taking. A friend who grew up in Russia makes this distinction: When the USSR declared socialism, those in power grabbed what they wanted; while in our present-day variation of capitalism, those in a position to, grabbed what they wanted — and now they’re demanding that the State help them out.
    Can’t Come Clean About Its Printing Machine
    All of this gets back to the policies of the Federal Reserve. It attempts to pick the right interest rate to run the economy, but it’s been poor at that. And, when problems arise — due to the misallocation of capital created by too much cheap money — the Fed hides behind its supposed mandate to just promote full employment . . . to print more money. The Fed actually has two mandates: promoting full employment and price stability. But the Fed seems to think that if it promotes full employment, that will magically also insure price stability.
    In fact, it’s only when you pursue price stability that you have a shot at full employment not accompanied by massive excesses. Price stability and a sound currency are the way to manage a central bank in a capitalistic economy. The Fed’s policies have gone so far in the other direction that perhaps when the preordained consequences of the last bubble are finally obvious to all, it will be forced to change them, though that will be a ways down the road.
    Back to the action: After the morning weakness, the market naturally attempted to rally. That fizzled early on and by noon we were plumbing the lows, down better than 1% across the board. The afternoon saw an attempt to push the indices back higher. In fact, the Nasdaq 100 was reasonably successful at that, which helped the Nasdaq itself. But the Dow/S&P remained pretty heavy.
    Not Much Quaking for So Many Cracks
    I can’t quite fathom what drives people to chase some stocks, given the fragility of the financial system. Cracks in the dike are springing up everywhere, be it any form of mortgage or municipal paper problem. I don’t think the financial system has ever been anywhere near this close to seizing up. Yet folks appear to want to buy stocks.
    I say that, looking at how grudgingly many stocks gave up ground for most of the day (until a swoon in the last half hour made the tape look a bit worse than it had for much of the day). But having said that, anything mortgage-related was crushed in the end, with a lot of tech names weak as well. I still don’t get the sense there’s anywhere near the level of concern that I feel there ought to be. The times ahead are destined to be extraordinarily perilous.
    Away from stocks, the xera was slaughtered once again, hitting a new all-time low against the euro and a new low for the move against the yen. It’s just sickening how the authorities have treated and continue to treat our currency. Oil was up 3%. Treasurys were on fire to the upside, due to chaos in the dark-matter world and economic weakness. That makes a mockery of my short from yesterday, but I’ve decided to continue to build up my position. Today I added a bit more to it. Silver was up 3% and gold was up 1.5%.

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  22. joker

    DECK hit hard ah.

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  23. joker

    deck hit hard ah. i am glad you covered in the 130’s. damn.

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  24. DanB

    Juice, cliffs notes please

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  25. Pudfucker

    Anybody think this is legit?

    http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN2857281320080228

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  26. chiefbottomsucker

    Good shit Juice!

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  27. kd

    Fly,
    When are you gonna get back in MVIS? Also, any updates?
    Thanks.

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  28. Q4

    Your lack of faith is disturbing. SRS

    Neva Hafta Wurry

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  29. The Fly

    Joker:

    Fuck you.
    http://www.ibankcoin.com/flyblog/index.php/2008/02/05/fly-buy-deck/

    Still short from the high 130’s. I covered some for a nice profit at 114.

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  30. The Fly

    KD:

    Quit haggling me on MVIS.

    Listen up good:

    I WILL NOT buy that stock until late 2008 or until Tokman buys some himself.

    I’m bearish on the market and will not turn neutral, until the DOW is down 12-15%, YTD.

    Got it?

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  31. Henry

    12-15% YTD for somebody that predicted 2 months ago, DEPRESSION style soup lines?

    That’s like just hitting, JUST re-testing the lows on Jan.

    I would have been slightly bearish/neutral if we re-test those lows a month ago, but from the looks of it, we are blowing right through it. Every week we hear of a new credit market fuckin up.

    Also, bear in mind, Big Ben did say on the Q&A to congresss, this was worse than the 01 recession and did expect a significant rise in bank failures? How many banks have failed so far?

    After the rate cuts, SKF looks a golden opportunity for me.

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  32. Mr. Limm's Son
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  33. Mr. Limm's Son

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  34. Woodshedder

    Remember to ret her in to your heart
    Then you can start to make it betrer
    betrer betrer betrer betrer betrer!

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  35. JakeGint

    DECK beats and raises:

    Fly: Part of the game. Glad I covered most in the 110’s.

    DECK Down major league in AH…

    Fly: Fly wins again.

    ????

    ______________

    No disrespect to Calvin, but I knew I was golden when I saw that he covered 80% pre-announcement.

    If I’d seen that you’d covered most, I’d have said “lock.”

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  36. Mr. LIMM

    Who bloke into seclet famry video stash?

    It is an invasion of plivacy, and I know it was you Wooden Shreddah!

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  37. Mr. LIMM

    Dat was rittle Limm.

    He viorin majah at Halvad now.

    Nasty holse habit.

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  38. Woodshedder

    lmao.

    I’ve missed you Mr. LIMM.

    Pray tell, where is Mr. LIMM’s Yoda?

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  39. Mr. LIMM's Yoda

    On beharf of Balak Oblama, I wolk.

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