iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,579 Blog Posts

Bulls in Charge, For Now

Sometimes it’s helpful to take a step back and be objective, regarding the market. Unfortunately, I’ve been on the wrong side of a trade or market, numerous times, throughout my career. What’s important to understand, when positions are going against you, is the reason why you hold them (positions) in the first place.

And, when initiating or building those positions, make sure you have ample cash reserves to buy cheaper—just in case you’re wrong.

Personally, the last thing I want to do is admit defeat, sell my losers and succumb to “what’s working.” However, many times, that’s exactly what should be done.

For example: I should have sold all of my [[AAPL]] a long time ago. The stock has been a bowser in 2008 and has been a significant drag on my portfolios. Instead, I should have put the money to work in oil/natty or something else worth the fucking paper it’s written on.

With regards to my current short positions:

Rational people would suggest to run for cover, since the bull is back and the sellers have no balls. For now, sitting on top of good year to date gains, I will give myself a little more rope to hang myself with, while eagerly awaiting this run to fizz out. Keep in mind, I believe the market will be down between 10-15% this year. Being down a mere 5% (YTD) on the DOW doesn’t scream “fucking value” to me. Considering the 450 point run, in three days, I feverishly suggest selling twice over.

With that being said, doing my screens, I’ve come across a good list of stocks that are working (today)— and a few that are not.

Financials:

Good: [[BX]], [[FCSX]], [[FIG]], [[MBI]], [[JNS]], [[TROW]], [[COF]], [[C]], [[LEH]], [[ABK]], [[FMD]]

Bad: [[ABK]], [[RMG]], [[SDA]], [[ICE]], [[RJF]], [[GS]]

Retail:

Good: [[RSH]], [[M]], [[MSO]], [[BID]], [[AZO]], [[SHLD]], [[KCP]], [[BEBE]], [[BGP]], [[GES]], [[COH]], [[ZUMZ]]

Bad: [[KSWS]], [[LULU]]

Food and Beverage:

Good: [[LNY]], [[JBX]], [[BWLD]], [[TXRH]], [[ABV]], [[DRI]], [[HANS]], [[DPZ]], [[PZZA]]

Bad: [[COT]], [[GAP]], [[BAGL]]

Energy:

Good: [[NTG]], [[TSO]], [[DWSN]], [[STP]], [[CHNR]], [[PQ]], [[DPTR]], [[CLNE]], [[ARD]], [[FTO]], [[PDC]], [[CSIQ]], [[WNR]], [[ALJ]].

Bad: [[USU]], [[PKD]], [[NGAS]], [[YGE]], [[GASS]], [[LNG]], [[LDK]], [[TSL]], [[HOKU]], [[NWN]], [[BTU]]

Semi’s:

Good: [[TER]], [[CREE]], [[EMKR]], [[ATE]], [[SMTC]], [[SWKS]], [[FORM]], [[INTC]], [[KLAC]]

Bad: [[TSRA]], [[SNDK]], [[SIGM]]

Internet:

Good: [[NFLX]], [[CTRP]], [[PCLN]]

Bad: [[TSCM]], [[GOOG]], [[BIDU]], [[WBMD]], [[MELI]], [[EBAY]]

Trannies:

Good: [[GWR]], [[ACLI]], [[GBX]], [[OSG]], [[BNI]]

Bad: [[DRYS]], [[EXM]], [[NM]]

Metals:

Good: [[ERS]]. [[IIIN]], [[PAAS]], [[ROCK]]

Bad: [[ZEUS]], [[ZOLT]]

Industrials:

Good: [[DCO]], [[GRO]], [[CLX]], [[LAYN]], [[DW]], [[MHK]], [[KAMN]], [[VMI]], [[LNN]], [[LECO]], [[EXH]], [[WHR]], [[TEX]]

Bad: [[CRDN]], [[PCP]], [[IRBT]], [[TITN]], [[CSL]]

Hardware:

Good: [[DELL]], [[HTCH]], [[EMC]], [[AUO]], [[TRMB]]

Bad: [[AAPL]], [[RIMM]], [[DISH]], [[NNDS]], [[GRMN]]

Wireless:

Good: [[CNTF]], [[TKC]], [[VM]], [[IDCC]], [[SWIR]], [[MBT]], [[USM]], [[NIHD]], [[VIP]], [[MICC]]

Bad: [[SKM]]

Currencies:

Good: [[FXY]], [[FXE]], [[FXC]], [[UDN]]

Bad: Dollars

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23 comments

  1. Woodshedder

    Damn, it took a lot of effort to make that post.
    Thanks for the hard work.

    Portfolio’s [sic]

    Too bad it wasn’t perfect.

    UPDATE WOOD COMMENT:I’m a liar—always have been. I enjoy long walks near ugly swamps, while drinking whiskey from a bowl.

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  2. The Fly

    I have a rather unique screening method. The data was extracted rapidly.

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  3. WildWestie

    Fly works smarter, not harder

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  4. CAP

    The Yen is strong yet the market is up. I smell a selloff.

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  5. calvino

    Yen is not strong.. the carry traade is going through the euro.

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  6. yankmydoodleitzadandy
    yankmydoodleitzadandy

    I suspect Macy’s head window dresser overdid her Starbucks this morning and took to the Streets.

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  7. Woodshedder

    I think I’m going to quit.

    Fly just used admin. privileges to edit my comments.

    I’m shocked and bewildered.

    And he purposely left URBN out of his hot retail list, up over 4% today, because he knows I’m long the name. I think I’ll file discrimination.

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  8. The Fly

    I own URBN. Fuck that stock.

    The carry trade is now running through Mongolian Tugriks.

    So sorry for you Yen holders.

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  9. CAP

    Calvino,

    Carry Trade through Euro ? The Euro isn’t a low yield currency and continues to grow stronger against the Dollar. Why would the Carry Trade move through the Euro ? I can see the carry trade moving through the USD. Low yielding currency that continues to decline.

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  10. calvino

    That yen is fucking every bear in here.

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  11. calvino

    ok, look at the euro/jpy and then tell me – it’s a perfect correlation.

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  12. Dinosaur Trader

    That first Woody comment is a classic.

    -DT

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  13. Big Mike

    Fly forgot to list the most important momentum trade there is…fucking commodities.

    Go for platinum, palladium, wheat, corn…and whatever commodities associated with dairy. This morning PPI report showed 28% gain YtY on dairies.
    Kohn also just stated they will keep cutting and that inflation should constrain (yeah right).

    Hedge yourself long until when the bears do come back in full force.

    Nat gas, UNG looks pretty good to me, while DBA (commodity ETF) looks good as well. I already have a nice position is RJZ (every fuckin metals there is)

    Patience, my young apprentice…Patience…

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  14. Slater866

    Bye bye 1400

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  15. Jason

    Short GES here there is a good resistance.

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  16. anonII

    wood …. that’s egregious

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  17. Big Mike

    Also, my spidey senses are telling me, mutual funds managers are “predicting” a bottom and putting the side-line money in.

    This optimism is the hope that the bad news is already priced in, and forecast that Q3/Q4 will be amazing. A bunch of bullshit even more, now that inflation is in the picture.

    I REFUSE TO GO LONG UNTIL THESE PROFITS FORECASTS ARE MARKED DOWN!

    Cheers!

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  18. calvino

    whoa, did anyone see the dow just jump forty points in thirty seconds.. did ibm just announce they have discovered the perpetual motion machine?

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  19. JakeGint

    Calvin — all that liquidity shooting out over the lip… look at silver today for gawd’s sakes… the gold traders decided to “respect the IMF bullshit” for a day, but it’s gotta go somewhere.

    Yippie tie yie yay, YukonCorneliusimuthafluckas!

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  20. attention!

    total fucking chaos. waste and chaos. noone’s in charge.

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  21. JakeGint

    Jason… I tend to agree…

    That’s a nice website you did for Cello, btw… It’s a shame all their houses look like they came from Ikea.

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  22. calvino

    holy fucking douchebags batman.. the amex is down.. etf’s not closing today for the wrong people.

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  23. JakeGint

    What the hell is going on in Florida (Miami Dade) right now?

    TC aren’t you down there?

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