iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,318 Blog Posts

A Timely Defeat for “The Fly”

BREAKING NEWS SPECIAL: THE RECESSION HAS ENDED!!!

Pardon me, I’m going to leave the office now and drive my car into a wall of dynamite. Nothing vexes me more than having my face ripped off, in late day trading.

Just when people started going home and volume thinned out, BAM, Charlie Gasparino leaks news of a pending bailout for [[ABK]].

Holy fuck nuts.

Not believing in such absurd theories, I threw some bad money after good, via fucktarded inverse etf’s. This, my foolish internet friends/enemies, is the worst stock day of my life (utter lie).

I’ve been through many arduous campaigns and “battles” throughout the years. However, this swift decapitation of “The Fly” will be archived, for a period of years, as the worst time machine defeat—EVER!.

To remedy the twisting feeling in my gut, I must exit the premises of the fucking office, hit my trader/servant in the head with an idle bagel, then go home and drink “poor people beer.”

With my money, I’ve been had.

Without doubt, the pending bailout will mark the bottom in U.S. indices and enable the DOW to shoot for 13,000. Concerning my short positions: they will die without honor.

NOTE: With the deepest regrets, “The Fly” finished the day down 0.66%.

UPDATE:

  ABK AMBAC Fincl: FT story discusses ABK bailout (10.71 +1.48) -Update-
  FT reports a group of banks is preparing to inject $2 bln to $3 bln into the troubled bond insurer Ambac, which is racing against time to come up with fresh capital to avoid a sharp cut in its triple-A credit rating that could trigger wider financial market turmoil. The money from the banks would be part of a plan to split Ambac’s operations, people involved in the discussions said. Ambac is also considering raising fresh equity from shareholders. It is not clear how much capital it will need, or what credit ratings the split businesses would have. The group of banks looking at supporting Ambac includes C, WB, BCS, RBS, Societe Generale, BNP Paribas, UBS and Dresdner. These are the ones with the most exposure to guarantees supplied by Ambac on structured bonds and derivatives, the value of which could fall sharply and result in billions of dollars of write-downs if the insurer’s credit ratings fall far below the triple-A level.

UPDATE II: Mish’s take on this Ambak shit.

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52 comments

  1. Steve

    Do me a favor and refrain from calling a bottom, thanks.

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  2. The Fly

    Your Mother still milks sheep.

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  3. BOOMER

    I’d give you a hug but your dog ripped off my arms.

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  4. Mac

    Seems pretty “convenient” that just as it looks like the indexes are going to breakout of this range and close beneath this range of the past week, particularly on the S&P around 1336, this news/rumor just “happens” to be released. The S&P 500 moves up over 2% in under 30 minutes. Give me a break!

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  5. Warning

    Sorry Fly. Honestly…I really didn’t intend to hurt you. You didn’t know me worth shit so why would you have heeded my warning after-all. You’ll recover as most of your calls are right on. Piece by piece and NEVER break your rules.

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  6. Warning

    Request access to my private blog: [email protected].

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  7. CAP

    Warning,

    were u aware of this bailout or was that rally call of yours a fluke ? I suspected the market would rally just based on a sheer gut feeling and hedged some of my SKS SRS exposure via selling calls.

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  8. mo'money

    When your gay, your gay. It’s good to come clean like you did.

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  9. Big Mike

    FLY JINX US!!! GOD DAMN IT…sooo close for a major technical breakdown…

    Anybody wondering why JPM, C, LEH aren’t rallying strong?

    Anybody thinking of hedging by going long financials? Without a doubt we are rallying next week, it will give every stupid ass mutual funds managers a reason to buy stocks.

    BUY: JPM

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  10. buylo

    WTF, is it just coincidence that yesterday the Philly Fed sends the market to hell after a good start and today the market is way down and reversed by rumour about Ambac? Seems this is happening fairly regularly and its the big boys fucking with the retail traders – odd? what else is new?

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  11. Warning

    Good luck everyone. I won’t be posting here again.

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  12. The Fly

    Warning=Charlie Gasparino.

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  13. calvino

    Marty, you will have your revenge. The architect of this evil is Bear Shits and they will pay. Be patient and you will have your blood.

    btw.. Warning.. you shot your load. There was a rally, as you said. I don’t need inside info to make money.. in fact, I would rather not haave it, inside info gone, money gone kind of thing. This is the way the fuckball is rolling and that’s all good, and I did get strung out on Bear Shits today. But I don’t use day margin to sell short, so you are catching amateur hour anyway. The faster you and them are out of the market, the better myh money is goign to flow. And it is a matter of time for both of you. You will not be taking over anyone’s shorts in three weeks, you don’t work that way, .. you can only trade on inside info.

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  14. ottnott

    If the rumor is true, it will not be the last bailout of ABK.

    Meanwhile, municipalities here and there are finding themselves in severe financial distress, because they invested lots of cash in asset-backed securities that have plummeted in value.

    Rescue that, fuggers!

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  15. zephler

    like I said last week, the destruction of ABK and MBI was too obvious, thus it never happened.

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  16. mrkcbill

    Cajun- Can I change my pick to WM?

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  17. alphadawgg

    The banks will have to go into hock to do a bailout. Can they actually pull this off?

    I thought they were strapped, looking at the reserve data as of 02/13/08:

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/Current/

    Am I missing something?

    I have a hard time understanding how this bailout can help the burgeoning CDO market and the situation with bank chicanery, let alone the stock market. How does this help corporate earnings for the rest of the market participants during a recession?

    AMBAC’s main biz is insuring muni bonds, which have a very low incidence of default anyway.

    However, this might restore confidence to the auction rate securities markets.

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  18. Big Mike

    Anybody realized how FUCKED UP today’s day was?

    GASPARINO at 7:30am = BOND INSURERS DOWNGRADE IMMINENT!

    GASPARINO At 3:30pm = BOND INSURERS BAILOUT!

    God damn it…

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  19. Lord Gaino

    Being short in company is always dangerous.

    Just when the entire planet is short and rubbing their hands together at the marginal ‘breakdown’, the market always finds a way to fuck you all up the ass in one swift movement.

    Thats just how it is i’m sorry to say.

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  20. CAP

    Alpha,

    THe market is all about perception. The perception is that a bailout for the monolines is good for the market. The market doesn’t trade on hard facts rather more so on things people perceive to be good or bad for the market. Market particpants think that a downgrade or BK of the monolines is bad and they will trade accordingly. A bailout on the other hand is good and the market rallies in response.

    Once the perception changes and market particpants realize that a bailout will not solve the underlying fundamental issues that plague the economy then we are headed back down. Make money in the market by playing the perceptions not the facts.

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  21. Wow. I just got Gasparino’d and it felt great. Went from up big to down even bigger in the last 30 minutes.

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  22. In the real world, one man’s opinion moving markets twice in one day would be considered?
    A. Unbelievable
    B. Fraudulent
    C. Very Profitable

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  23. Alvari40

    The sad truth is that he now will get more time on the air. Just when I thought his head would explode on cable TV for all to see in its bloodletting glory, we now get to see more of this fine fellow. Let’s all take a bow for Mr. Gasparino. To be seen on CNBC 8 times a day. Yipeeee. We now need the Gasparino Index, or better yet, the Gasparino hedge.

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  24. The Dbag

    Wow looks like i’ve inversely ETF’d myself

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  25. BOOMER

    I wonder if anyone follows that guy around, sniffing for ideas. Bet there are guys with antenna pointing at him? Bet his PC is keylogged?

    What do I know, just an armless sinner.

    At the least, its hard to be an “objective” investigative reporter and a public goomba.

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  26. Vince Lombardi

    This is nothing but a temporary bump up before new lows.

    This is a great opportunity to add to shorts and PUTS.

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  27. Alvari40

    A speculative buy, based on DNA news, would be DNDN.

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  28. goat on a rope

    I’m thinking JJ might be “The Ambassador”

    LOL- maybe the “FLY is actually Jeff “sharp as a marble head” Macke

    Maybe this entire site is a veritable CNBC conspiracy financially backed by T. “Boones Farm” Pickens.

    Dylan Ratigan -OUT!

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  29. Q4

    Fly:

    LEH, with those Level 3 assets and the ratio of those assets to equity, are still fucked.

    “poor people beer”… 🙂 Welcome back to the

    Streets

    Watts Up

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  30. joker

    ’bout time you lost 5% in one quick swoop. Please stay short and stayyy negative and give back all your cash to your clients before you file ch11.

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  31. TraderRenn

    Ouch, that hurt really bad!

    Does anyone believe this daily reversal invalidates the down trend? If so, why?

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  32. JakeGint

    Joker,

    Don’t be a sirry iriot. We just tapped the bottom of the broken triangle line.

    Look for a dive to the lows next week.

    Apologies.

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  33. 2smuv4u

    Jake,

    “Tapped the bottom” in one hood, homo-hammers out at Fly’s place. How come the only top posting here is JJ?

    Just sayin’.

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  34. nncoco

    Sometimes I think we’re trading in Latin America.

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  35. Danny

    ^hahaha yeah that last guy was incomprehensible.

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  36. hammer

    Well I’ll be corn holed….hadn’t check my SSO position since early today and I wanted to mutilate myself. I see things turned right around…what a frickin’ joke this market is. Bulls, Bears….fuck that, this market is run by goat sucking Chupacabra’s.

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  37. TraderCaddy

    That’s pretty big news about the recession ending especially since it hasn’t officially started.

    Cajun- Is it too late to change my “NCAA” stock picks to either World Com or Enron?

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  38. Steve

    I’m pissed I missed that contest. I would’ve taken STV and whooped up on all of you.

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  39. Prospectus

    My take is that we’re dealing with a very rarefied marketplace. There’s no damping to the price change impulses.

    Think about it. So many investors are sitting on the sidelines. Normally, moving the markets is like playing ping-pong in a swimming pool full of jello. Takes a lot of force to get something to move very far. Now that things have been so crazy, there’s fewer market participants around with liquidity to absorb price moves. All the jello is gone–the pool is empty. So what happens? Some wiseguy tries to slam the ball, and suddenly there’s no resistance to absorb the buying pressure. Not only that, but every trader that is leveraged short gets a margin call with sidespin on it, causing the move to continue even further, on and on.

    Basically, in this market, you better be ready to handle insane oscillations, because the jello– it’s just gone, man. Nobody wants to take the risk in size, “people” are sitting this out, and the damping in the markets is gone, but the price impulses are still there. To my thinking, the smartest play is to scale into positions without leverage, so that you can sit until you get a favorable price to exit. There’s no V-bottom this time, but we’re not going to Dow 8000 tomorrow, either. Use the volatility, don’t fight it.

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  40. joker

    Me and tha bulls are gonna fuckingg rip you suckers a new one come monday fucking morning.

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  41. Prospectus

    @joker: The irresistible force of your compelling argument overwhelms me. I prostrate myself before your brilliance.

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  42. Jason

    Fly –

    If and when are you going to get on the solar bandwagon? Still don’t cover these stocks?

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  43. Dayton

    Please do not use profanities it cheapens the conversation. I have never been on your website but it turns me off and to the million others. Find equivalent words in a dictionary to describe things expand your vocabulary.

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  44. The Fly

    Fuck you.

    So sorry.

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  45. NoFlyZone

    Dayton,

    I could not agree more. I suggest you try sticking your own penis up your anus.

    The foul language is part of the Fly’s schtick…love it or leave it.

    NFZ

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  46. Woodshedder

    Dayton, the conversation here costs you nothing. Thus, it has to be cheap.

    Either you learn how to bank coin, with the cursing, or you don’t.

    Cursing has nothin to do with making money.

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  47. calvino

    A proponent of elevated discourse myslef, I would proffer that you go take a flying fuck at a rolling donut, with a Websters in your left hand.

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  48. joker

    Even the joker can say fuck you Dayton,

    My dictionary has the words “fucktard” and “asshat” in bold.

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  49. mrkcbill

    And millions of others.. I doubt it.

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  50. alphadawgg

    Dayton,
    Just take a black magic marker and cross thru the words on the screen that you find offensive.

    Problem solved.

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  51. Leawoodblues

    Shit, I missed out on the Tourette’s festival.

    Dayton – go fuck yourself

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  52. DougSF

    Oh, one can definitely connect the dots between profanity and trading, just ask any of my neighbors.

    My litany of profanity can be used as a reversal indicator and the volume can be used similar to the ADX, not so much for holy grails, but more as a momentum gauge.

    Trading without profanity is as laughable as first-marriage floor traders, or jr brokers lacking ball-washing skills.

    Grab a helmet.

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