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Recession over. Buy high beta cocaine stocks. Oil at 95 is not stopping this consumer. Fuck take out a sub prime arm and drink from your chalice! Its party time, break out the fucking hats and tinsel on the floor of the NYSE!
Clemens is guilty, but nevermind that he is now pardoned due to the recession being over.
Off to catch a flight.
Update: Due to the recession being over and this hella economy there appears to be a shortage of first class seats.
I back into some CAF for shits and giggles.
if the s&p breaks out above 1400, that can’t be ignored on the bull side, sadly.
but were almost overbought and life is still gloom and doom for teh consumers and banks, so, we’ll all find out soon enough
Whatever, options ex shenanigans. I bet LEH/WM gaps up or some crap tomorrow/friday.
Evil shenanigans?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ok85BmPyl_I
Can someone tell me why being bearish in a bear market is not working out so good? Is this just more of the post Y2K bizarro universe where bulls make more money than bears in a bear market?
Asia injecting some HGH & B12 into the rally. However, I think we back off today & for a couple days, particularly if we open up, but there is more to go. Many charts need upside completion before Yogi & Booboo return from some beauty rest in Jellystone.
MarketRaider: In the 2000-2002 bear market, Nasdaq fell 80%; there were something like 30 rallies of 5% /-. Since the SPX high in mid Oct, it fell 20% into mid Jan; even so, we are now in the middle of rally #5 of 3-9%.
BooBoo be nimble,
BooBoo be quick,
BooBoo needs to get the fuck out of the way once in a while.
The whores are running out of tricks. There is one percent left n the fed rate.. The Treasury is -400 bil on the budget .. no more giveaways. The first of the douchebags just stepped out of the muni auctions.. UBS.. they are out of money. Very soon, it is time to bring the cows to the slaughterhouse.
Not sure if there is anyone on this board that is interested in daytrading – I dabble in it to deal with the boredom, but it is by no means my primary trading style. Anyway, I have had DNDN for some time now and have been enduring the pain for quite some time. The stock has a 42% short interest and there was a setback late yesterday, which brought more late short sellers into the stock. The company came out this morning with positive news which is sure to squeeze the new shorts and may spill over to the hardcore shorts. Volatility should be severe today, which is great for those interested in daytrading. Longer term outlook still not clear.
alvari – thx, a daytrade approach here is consistent with “get the fuck out of the way” until gravity is restored.
If I was going to trade.. I would sell bidu.
Where has our money for oil gone? HERE perhaps?
ya think??
calvino –
Why? Fundies or chart? Day chart looks like it will rip up due to oversold indicators. May last a week or so.
40.. they are deflating in the pre market all the way since 8am – sentiment, imho
Brucie —
I got that Abu D’abhi thing about a week back and sent it to the Fly and to Gary Savage… I think AD real estate is a pretty sure “sell” here.
So much for “Asians” leading our market.
(Not like this isn’t the 5,234th iteration of this fact)
Glad I covered my FXP shorted calls yesterday.
Every Brother in Lehman, taking it in the kiester right now.
Couldn’t happen to a finer pack o’ weasels.
Rally into the close.
I just want to thank Woodie for helping crush JPM today with his “Bottom” call.
Best of luck with the new methadone program, Wood.
Hey, did you guys see what I just told congress? Here’s a summary:
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress the country’s economic outlook has deteriorated and signaled that the central bank is ready to keep on lowering a key interest rate –as needed–to shore things up.
Cut…cut…cut…
Helicpoter.. some of my firends at the CBOT have special ordered some Russian Strelas for you and they have ‘+.3 on the 10yr’ as well as ‘negative real interest rate’ and ‘euro 1.5, headline inflation +10’. Good luck pal, and turn the heat down, my strelas like heat.
Kolvenbach is getting pissed.
Down with the Vatican.
Bernanke sounds nervous.
Yea, he does. He knows what is in store.
Always stay on the short side of life.
Fly’s don’t burn on the grill.
SKF+
Hope you fuckers don’t have student loans, you probably don’t, but they going to 20%.
Why didn’t Goldman commit $100 million of its $1 trillion balance sheet to support the PATH bonds yesterday? Failing to commit .01% of its balance sheet, practically a rounding error, caused the interest rate to reset to 20% from 4.3% a week ago.
PATH’s credit didn’t deteriorate to distressed levels in a week, so I don’t understand why Goldman didn’t pick off the bonds and earn the 20% interest rate until the bonds get refinanced.
I’m confused. Anybody have any insight?
Jeff – Student Loan progams will get mucho Gov’t support.
SLM may be the best bailout prospect out there.
I know Leadwood. Just pointing out that noone here owes due to their GED status.
Now Paulson is getting testy, not a good sign. Paulson is trying to put a good face on a bag o’shit so that the public will walk quickly and quietly to the exit, instead of panicking because he knows the building is on fire.
HSBC sent me a notice yesterday on a credit card, buried in the fine print is an APR on new purchases of over 30 percent, unbelievable. No reason given, I don’t need this card under those circumstances. I guess HSBC wants to cut back on lending, I’ve heard BAC is doing the same thing.
Boca,
He always does. It’s the coke and weed he took back in college. Results in flashback insecure moments that manifest itself when he appears in front of large audiences that look at him as though he should know what he is talking about.
Jake, I never said the bank stocks had bottomed. Fly said that. Check your head. I said they looked like they would run to the 200 day average, or the 50 day average.
Overall, I find the majority of the top ten stocks in the DJ US financial index more bullish than bearish. However, you will not find me saying they have bottomed. I’m keenly aware that things move up and down during a bear market, just like a bull, and I think they can go up further from here.
I’m home today, and watching CNBC. The fucking Congress has no fucking idea. Don’t these fuckers understand that dumbass citizens took our loans for more than they can afford, period? Don’t they fucking understand the business cycle? Goddamn it pisses me off to have a bunch of fucking stupid politician who cater to the lowest common denominator of American society.
Woody,
They are not stupid, they are corrupt. The stupid part is just an act to throw off the masses while they appease their masters.
Woody, the amazing thing is that we elected these politicians to office. I always find that fascinating in a bad way.
MarketRaider, I agree about the corruptness.
I hate to hear them play to their constituents, knowing full well that it is the American consumer that is primarily responsible for where we are.
the next shoe to plop?
When Muni Bonds Don’t Sell, Watch Out
By Daniel Dicker
TheStreet.com Contributor
2/14/2008 11:29 AM EST
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/bonds/10403507.html
I’ve watched the number of failed rate auctions in the municipal bond market grow over the past few days. Although this is outside my expertise, as a trader, any news that might be predictive of the marketplace needs to factor into your thinking. And what I’m thinking now isn’t very good.
Over the last two days, auctions for short-term municipal bonds have been finding no buyers. Now, we’re talking about the best of AAA-rated organizations, and their debt usually doesn’t need much advertisement to find people willing to assume risk on them. We’re talking about the Port Authority of New York, for example, or the MTA or various state-run student loan organizations.
Over the last two days, 80% of the auctions on these debt securities have “failed” — that is, they found no buyers willing to take on the risk of these well-collateralized securities. Interest rates being paid on these bonds have soared from the more common 4% to more than 20%. Municipalities, unwilling to pay such exorbitant interest rates on their debt, have been scrambling to convert their debt to fixed-rate notes and pay off these high-priced securities. The rate curve is about to steepen — and really fast.
What’s interesting about all this, of course, is that’s it’s simply not supposed to happen.
The municipal bond market is the skinny, pasty, horn-rimmed-glasses-wearing guy in the financial room — normally crowded out by the ripped-muscled, girl-attracting studs of the equity hedge fund and commodity gunslingers.
But that soft-spoken muni bond guy is supposed to offer you peace, solid returns and most importantly, safety: you’re supposed to sleep without a care at night, knowing that your muni bond portfolio is rock-solid and entirely riskless.
At least that’s the way it’s always gone — until earlier this week.
Credit market difficulties have found their way into the municipal bond market, as investors are shying away from any security — even one as rock-solid as municipals — that are being insured by distressed reinsurers like Ambac Financial Group (ABK) and others.
In situations less dire than this, the investment banks running the auctions have always stepped in as secondary bidders, willing to take on the “risk” of these low-risk securities, holding them on their own books to either enjoy the added interest or peddling them at a profit to clients out of inventory. Starting at Goldman Sachs (GS) , and quickly moving to Citigroup (C) and UBS (UBS) , all of the investment banks have shown an unwillingness to step in with bids for these securities and all have allowed the auctions to simply fail.
Fair-weather friends, we could call them, but all the major banks are feeling the heat of a disaster year from subprime credit writedowns and are unwilling to commit larger amounts of capital to investments that at the very best could only net them a percentage point or two in profit. In this tough world of investment banking returns, that kind of profit doesn’t feed the baby.
These auction failures could have far-reaching effects. Surely for the borrowers themselves, who depend on these short term notes to stay alive, there could be issues. Student loans could be withdrawn or become more expensive. Municipalities could look to recoup extra interest costs in higher tolls or other fees.
But that’s probably the smallest piece of this puzzle.
Investors in these short-term securities are effectively locked out. One of the major advantages of these securities is their liquidity — even outside of the reset dates, investors have been able to buy and sell these securities easily, and right now they cannot. They cannot flee into tax-free money market accounts, as these are mostly pegged to the same type of municipal bond positions.
And of course, investor confidence is the biggest issue.
As a trader, the question has to be asked: If you’re not “safe” in short-term munis, where should your money be?
While this is mostly a liquidity problem, and not a credit problem because these institutions are all solid AAA, many analysts will not equate the issue with the mortgage mess, even if the roots of it are somewhat connected.
But a liquidity problem is bad enough.
When banks and investors begin to hoard capital, I start thinking. I start thinking about hoarding capital myself. And if I’m thinking about it, I’m sure that others are, too.
These failures of muni auctions amaze me again about the nature and ability to predict the capital markets. Failures like these have never, ever happened before. It’s incredible to me how often I’m seeing things that are never supposed to happen.
I’m going to watch this very closely and see how it plays out, but I think the opportunity will come in longer-term bonds, as this scramble to restructure debt will steepen the curve and give opportunity. Of course, I’ll need to have more in cash when that happens to take advantage of that. Also, if liquidity becomes the name of the game, that perception could easily spill over into the equity markets.
I’m a trader, and I’m trying to predict what will happen weeks and months from now, not tomorrow.
The subprime problem was well known, analyzed, discussed — and mostly dismissed — throughout most of the fall of 2007.
I don’t want me — or you — to get caught again.
Juice, thanks for the post.
I know absolutely nothing about how these auctions work, but the author suggests my assumption that GS could pick off the bonds at 20% is wrong. He suggests there’s only a percent of two of juice in it for the bank to bid. If that’s the case, then it’s easier to understand why a bank would choose not to be the bidder of last resort.
Brucey … I like “the next shoe to plop.”
Like the shoe is made of shit. Nice!
We are not going up, longs are trapped here, there is one more leg down pending, I smell some Panic selling ahead
Broken spy satellite will be shot down in Africa. You heard it here first you peasants.. Google it right now you won’t find the location, but I am the all seeing eye you bums.
p.s. Danny is a virgin.
Seeing as how SKF should be much higher now and it aint and seeing as how GS ticks up on every downdraft and seeing as how AAPL and GOOG is hanging tough and seeing as how I am a daytrader a move into GS and XLF/QLD is appropriate for a quickie or two.