Pardon me, I’ve been busy.
As you can see by now, crazy people are in control of this market. They’ve seized power and will drive up bank stocks, until their heads fall off.
This morning, the BLS data confirmed we are heading into recession, with the first reported loss of jobs in 4 1/2 years. What did people do?
Answer: they bought stocks.
After all, [[MSFT]] is buying [[YHOO]]. If MSFT is buying YHOO, then we must be booming. Anyone remember TWX buying AOL?
Look, I can bitch about the injustice until I’m blue in the face; it still doesn’t make stocks do what I want them to do. The market is a madhouse, where puppets and puppet masters perform dumb tricks, while drunk with greed.
My sense, the reality of slow growth will eventually kick in, effectively killing all those stupid puppets— with a few sharp ax blows to the head.
Back to work.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Time to cop a walk.
We can all sit home unemployed and play on the internet.
Gotta love it! Now if I can just keep talking techs into announcing ridiculous takeovers on days when I release bad numbers, I can keep the market from tanking until November.
self actualization or internet lemming?
when faced with logical vs. ridiculous conclusions, the market will always choose the one that makes the least sense. then comes the hangover.
Should the market trade higher on the recession news, due to the prospect of coming out of it, “The Fly” will be flying to Romania tonight for a goat stew dinner.
Hey Fly what’s your feeling on KO buying HANS? http://notablecalls.blogspot.com/ had a lil blurb on it today.
Once we get back near the bottom, Buying some 6 month out HANS calls seems like a plan to me?
Hmmm.
Moving up on the YHOO bid means assuming that 1+1>>2
Moving down on the payroll data means assuming that -18000<0
What to do?
Yahoo website headline:
Two Bags of Shit to Combine Into One Giant Bag of Shit……..
Palladium absolutely on an explosive breakout rally today. Up more than 6% a day to reach $414 ask!!! Told you to load up SWC and PAL why no one listens!
http://www.apmex.com/
Better later than never! Just load up these two and you are done for the year. Take a vacation and come back to be rich!!!! Beats day trading gambling hands down.
Goat stew and fish sticks… Romanian surf and turf.
Damn it I am getting RICH! More than half of my portfoluio today is CALL OPTIONS for $5 PAL in March!!!!!!! That’s how big I gambled on PAL.
Better late than never. Load up PAL and SWC.
They are going to push the Dow to 12,800 no matter what I guess.
JJ, I’m going to kill you.
1+1>>>>>>2, says the market.
I can haz rally?
Dennis Knees skinny other four eye froggy half brother from the West Coast decided to fuck his shareholders out of about twenty billion today. Why in fuck’s name not wait half year and pay the real price for it.
EBAY is next methinks
AMZN for EBAY ?
Calvino is like our own little Charlie Gasparino.
I think it’s MSFT’s day. I bet they pop for EBAY too. Integrated search, auction, content, operating system, mobile…except that it all sucks and I will stay with my Mac, BlackBerry, and GOOG
This is the worst day ever for The Zombie. I know two people that work for MSFT!!! WTF?? Zero info for The Zombie!!!??? They’re both high up enough to get that kind of info! SHITTT!!! One is a first cousin too!! What kind of family is that? All I’ve done for the guy. I’m supposed to be a groomsman at his wedding next month. Shit! Fuck that!! The other is my ex-fiancee. SHIIIIIITTT! Fuxk MSFT forever!!!
Kmorph:
Jealous kills!
My whole portfolio increase by more than 70% just today alone! Huge huge gain on SWC and PAL.
And it is just the beginning.
The homies just got an extension on their loans, hence SRS.
JJ,
Congrats to you. However, with the type of information that you include in your post (typical Yahooo message board hit and run shit), you only need to post ir once per day. People here are a bit more together than your average Yahoo stock trader that has $500 and is looking for a quick fix. I am not jealous, I am just sayin. I am happy for you.
Are we running on this Fed news of $60 billion in auctions for Feb. In other words admitting that banks are insolvent and these auctions are the only thing holding them up.
JJ we talked last night about how you need to be more truthful. Did you forget? You need to tell the FlyBoys what your average cost basis is.
Remember you were buying in May of last year?
you’re right, sis. if i fold my money 20000 times, i will really only get 19998 folds, because of my high basis. but follow my lead, everyone, and learn how to turn $15k to $15b in just 5 short trading days!
Recall how I said yesterday how the gold stocks were acting strange? Yesterday was the first time in months that they didn’t go up with the general market. They were in fact going down all day with a strong stock market and up gold price.
Now I know why. The big boys knew they were going to fuck the gold price in the AM. There you go.
If the recession is deep watch gold lose 30-40%.
I just dumped my ROM and UWM for a nice gain over last 3 days. Picked up SKF and DXD. Believe the recent news will send the market lower today.
Steve, the only we in this equation is the bear train that’s getting run on your distended rear opening.
There goes the rally. This may have been the final attempt to squeeze shorts. If we close deep in the red its probably smooth sailing for the bears. Long SRS SKF QID
So is the recession back on, is bad news bad news or is bad news good news, did Danny finally get laid? These are the questions that need answering damnit!
Danny is busy getting hot chics out of their clothes and shit, velcro and fishing line keeps getting in the way.
your apport to the blog worsen day after day ..
Is apport a word? What the hell is this dude saying.
Zombie – maybe they thought you were dead? seeing that you are undead, it is a resonable assumption.
odd, no?
As long as chips are strong, NASDAQ will do well today. They shouldn’t do well in a recession but perhaps they discounted this six months ago when they went into free fall.
Sandisk if you must Caddy, the nand is going mainstream with that Apple notebook. I want one too.
apport means transferrance from the ghost world – guess he wants McFly to climb back into the Delorean and bring us back a newspaper business section from the future.
Just remember, “The market can remain an asshat for longer than you can remain solvent.”
Fuck you, Jim Cramer……and all your rally talk.
FAAAAAAAAAACCCCCCCCKK!!
Is anyone else on a Level 3 trunkline?
Fuckers lost a cable in Texas and my connection now suuuuuuuuuuuuuuccckkkss!!
Hate Level 3 — seriously the fucking worst service, bar none.
Calvino-Yes, watching SNDK but been buying SMH on dips this AM-to dump later for daytrade.
Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) — Moody’s Investors Service said it will complete its reassessment of the bond insurance industry by mid- to late February and may downgrade some companies before then if they can’t raise capital.
…
————
basically warning everyone they will not wait for the bailout committee to ponder the situation…
hang on to that SKF
SWC up 17%. PAL up 7%.
faggy posts up 150%
Hey Jake, welcome to my world. I am over here in Dubai and some asshat destroyed two undersea cables in the Mediterranean screwing up the internet from Europe to Asia. It seems like a cable conspiracy is going on here.
Thanks for the definition calvino, I guess I need someone to translate what that crackhead is saying.
cal/T.C-
agree, SNDK is a no brainer. i got lots, and i am buying more.
RFMD, tho currently fucked, is buying back 25% of the float; might be another contender? gotta research how the MOT thing is gonna affect them.
AMZN to 70, bear flag forming at 74.5ish.
SWC to the MOOOOON!
-DT
Boomer:
I think so. I guess I now know how they really feel about me. I knew my first cousin wouldn’t talk–too chicken shit. But my ex-fiancee? I took care of her sick mother all week while she learned of the info. That’s the thanks I get? Fuck this; back to my grave!
I believe SWC,PAL moving up on takeover chatter but eventually S. Africa power will be resolved and demand for metals will tank in slow economy. Take quick profits IMO when you can. Companies are run by Chimps (no offense to chimps).
Raider — so did they fix the cable? Or are you coming through some other service?
Level3’s problem is they use dogshit instead of glass for their fiber.
Much more brittle.
Picked up more SKF and DXD. Remember, smart Money shows its hands on Friday. Market stalling on 38.2% retracement of its recent runup. If this 60 minute bar on the DOW (closes 8:30 Cali time)closes below 12,606, it will be a bearish sign and down we go for the day. We have hit key resis at this 38% retracement, jobs numbers were horid (jobs are all that matters IMHO), it’s a Friday, 2/3rds of retail is red, 3/4 housing is red, 1/2 financials are red, and we got past window dressing for what was a shitty month. My opinion, fund managers will show today that it is time to get back into cash. Going long SKF and DXD is a low risk play. I will add another position if that 8:30 60 min DOW bar closes below 12,606.
TC.. Russian chimps
Russian chimps make for good Cosmonauts.
This is another reason why consumer spending will come to a dead halt.
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/CFC-jpm-fnm-DELL/index/a/15747
Jake, no the cables are hosed and they say it will take about 2 weeks to fix. From what I understand the providers here set up a satellite backup but oh is watching real-time quotes painful. I get about a tick a second it seems.
As I’ve mentioned before, I think the recession was discounted last year when they took down the retailers, autos, semis, financials, homebuilders, consumer discretionary, casual dining, apparel, etc. by 30%-50%. Remember, GDP was printing strongly expansionary numbers in 2Q and 3Q when many of these recession sectors were being sold. The final capitulation selling climax in “the recession sectors” came in early January. The market was much more efficient discounting the recession this time than it was with the 2001 recession.
There is a gigunda amount of stimulus about to hit, so now the bet is that the recession’s duration will be short, shallow, so it has been mostly discounted. People are positioning for a new cycle starting in 3-6 months. It’s a risky bet, but volume in the early cycle names suggests the bet is being made by the big swinging dicks with strong convictions, not joe sixpack. Expect to see every talking head come on CNBC despairing about how bad the economy is, which it is CURRENTLY, but they are buying stocks in anticipation of the recovery.
I think the market is very extended to the long side in the short term, and I’d expect a fairly decent pullback over the coming weeks on some piece of “bad” news. But the probabilty of re-testing last week’s low is tiny, IMO.
Wow it looks like bear flags across all my charts, even the indices.
Id love to get a credit down grade here. Bulls and Bears are simply going back and fourth. Seems like not enough data to push this lower.
Pudfucker, how do suppose the have already discounted for the recession when there is still shit on the books they don’t even know how to mark. The dow is still over 12500 and the problems on hand are supposedly uniquely nasty. So for this market has only seen what is basically a normal correction from its all time highs. Hardly recession material.
Pud,
imo, i think you’re very right in you’re thought process. however, if the market were to get even more extended, that imo would actually be bullish. two things make me think that that is a possiblity.
1- the q’s have not yet really moved. with stks like aapl and big weight q stks still oversold and at the bottom of the page.
2- sentiment- in the form of aaii #’s and p/c ratios still pretty lousy.
regardless, i am adding to financials, retailors, and hommies only on pullbacks but might and actually doing adding some selective techs now.
MarketRaider, opinions are like assholes, everyone has one.
I’m just giving my opinion about what I see happening in the market.
Hey Pud, I am not dissing your opinion I am only asking some questions.
BOE:
looks like the SP500 will not break 1400. The PPT is on hold for now. Time to put your ETF shorts back on. The FLY is right. NO
I wish I knew how JJ2000426 was doing today.
It’s pretty clear the market is going to make gains today, and next week and maybe the week after until everyone is all in, then WHACK comes the guillotine. It’s gonna be awesome.
Chivas:
As you know, growth outperforms late in the cycle. That they are selling growth and using the proceeds to buy early cycle names is consistent with my belief that a new cycle will start in the not too distant future, IMO.
I totally agree with you that the longer we go without a meaningful pullback, the less likely one becomes. In addition to the sentiment measures you mentioin, short interest is at a record high. Many of those shorts will provide an underlying bid on even modest pullbacks, perhaps limiting the extent of a pullback and providing fuel to move it higher.
I fought the Fed…and the…Fed won…I fought the Fed and the…Fed won…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16u0wwCfoJ4
Pud,
we’re in complete agreement. as you know, i, along with you indicated a change in leadership was in the making. i am overweight early cycle names and will add only on pullbacks. the q’s to me is a short term catch up phase and a part of the portfolio.
Yesterday = window dressing.
This is it–if the “bear flags” don’t give way right here, then get drunk and buy stocks.
Prospectus,
We need volume to the downside. I am watching the 12,606 level on the DOW – if we crack that today, good news for shorts. We tested 12,607 on the last 60-min bar and then bounced. That bounce seems to be running out of steam. However, the rollover on the Naz futures aren’t coming with volume so far. So, it’s still a toss up as far as today is concerned. Need downside volume.
Rolling over my SWC profits to PAL ….. Thanks a bundle JJ!
MarketRaider: I didn’t mean to come off as a dick to you.
We’ve had a monstrous two week rally, and after a horrible, recessionary, non-farm payroll number this morning, we aren’t even seeing modest profit taking. Isn’t that a sign much of the recession may have been discounted?
And then look at what happened yesterday with initial jobless claims. Most people believe 350,000 to 360,000 is a recessionary print. We printed 375,000 yesterday, and yet the market rallied strongly.
Pud – take away the seattle uberrgeek’s 20 billion mistake from today’s market.. and where do you think the numbers would be? and no I am not exxagerating, and was not earlier today, when I said twenty bil. softie is down 6.. that’s 20 bil.. and that’s not coming back as quicks as the amzn, insider buying turnaround bullshit. furthermore,, take away the cedit machine that helicpoter set up.. and it is going away.. CBO announced deficits are doubling this year to 400 bil.. stockfucks haven’t figured it out yet.. when the march meeting comes around they will.
No worries Pud. My thinking is just that last year everyone seemed to be in denial, then we had that crazy end of year rally and now this sad excuse of a bear market so far. With the depth and breadth of the “supposed” problem on hand it almost seems anticlimactic. Anyway its always good to see other point of views to keep the unagi sharp.
Even bear flags aren’t working in this gay ass bear market. Bring back the bull market it was easier to fuck with the bulls back then.
Fed wants the lenders to keep lending, but who are the borrowers who are supposed to keep borrowing?
This is why people lose money during bear markets. They see a rally, think the bear is over and go long and start adding during pullbacks. By the time the next drop comes around they panic sell all longs and go short. Then the market proceeds to spike up and the cycle repeats.
I have said this before. This is the worst financial crisis that has ever hit the US since the Depression. Does anyone really think the bear market only lasts a few weeks ?
And to those who think financials have bottomed, we still don’t know which banks are solvent and which ones are not. We don’t know the extent to which further writedowns will affect these banks. There are too many unknowns out there in the financial sector. When the monoline downgrades come look out below.
Ditto CAP. Well said old chap!
Cap, I agree with you but financials and the rest of the market will only move higher until another egg drops with the financials.
Pud and Chivas- good analysis, although I disagree somewhat. (Chivas, I’m disappointed you quit on the PG.)
Anyway, your assertions about a pullback are patently absurd. One of you wrote, and both agreed that,
“totally agree with you that the longer we go without a meaningful pullback, the less likely one becomes.”
In reality, the longer we go without a pullback, the more likely one becomes. This is easily quantifiable, as long as we can agree on what constitutes a pullback.
From a sentiment point of view, when I hear people saying, buy buy buy, because there will not even be a pullback, I have to say, it makes me more bearish.
Calvino, no clue how the market would have reacted without the MSFT news. I am not lucky enough to have a time machine.
I admit how I’m interpretting market action may be completely wrong. Just sharing my opinion.
It’s free, so take it for what it’s worth.
Pud – extrapolate from the futures in that case. When ubbergeek announced his deal, dow, nas, s and p.. 120, 20, 15.. on the up.. no need for time machines.
Well, technically it was AOL that purchased Time Warner back in the day…
So we might see Microsoft changing its name to Yahoo! a few years down the road.
I’m losing faith in my short position. Recently, it has just been “bad news is good news” – just like early last year. I feel we have quite a bit of upside left in this market before we head down. It may not touch the all time highs, but at least get 3/4 of the way there.
Maybe it’s time to go long until the next jobs report.
Sorry for the patently absurd language, Woody.
What I should have said is that the longer we go without a re-test, or even a near re-test, of last week’s panic low, the less likely a re-test becomes.
Dinosaur:
I am glad you did not sell the SWC a few days ago like a day trader usually do. These two stocks, SWC and PAL, are worth holding for a few years. Just look at how low the price/sales ratio is. They will make huge amount of money with better metal prices.
Eddy:
How I am doing today? I am all in SWC and PAL, with half of my portfolio on calls. On the equity side I have more long positions on SWC than PAL. I just wish I had more calls on SWC. I don’t smile. I laugh!
TraderCaddy:
The PGM super bull has more fundamental reasona than South African electricity crisis. There’s a powder keg and South African electricity is just a match that lights the dynamite. The news story made it well known that’s all. The electricity crisis is 10 years in the making, and will take many years to correct. They simply do not have enough power plants. They are not a poor country. They are a rich country. But the demand increased too fast in recent years.
The FLY:
Still cursing and resisting SWC and PAL? You are fool if you still don’t jump in.