No robster for you. So sorry.
As you know, immediately following the Bernanke rate cut, Cramer went on tv, exclaiming: “”the market will ramp (into the close of trading).” Furthermore, he declared: banks stocks, despite how expensive they are, were “screaming buys.”
Hence: “The Cramer Top”
After the cut, my chart guy (dumbass chart chomper) told me there was significant overhead resistance at 12,700. Aside from that, I decided to say “fuck it,” and bulk up on my shorts.
At the high of the day, I bulked up on my shorts, much to the bulls chagrin.
Finally, the fate of the world is entirely dependent on non-farm payrolls, due this Friday.
Bring your guns.
NOTE: Look for credit downgrades of [[MBI]] and [[ABK]], shortly.
UPDATE: Ackman’s letter to Moody’s, regarding the monolines.
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Perfect post. The Cramer Top.
-DT
Funny, I had always thought of Cramer as more of a bottom…
Not that there’s anything wrong with that.
A soon as Cramer went on, I immediately reloaded the SKF. He is the ultimate in contrarian indicators.
A great big BA BA BA BOOYAH to Jimmy for ensuring that a top is in.
I would think they’d do the MBI, ABK downgrades Friday afternoon, like the last time they released something… can’t remember the specifics though, was just a week or so ago.
Guns…
ABK buh-bye
Ok guys remember that link I posted the other day. The NY Insurance Regulators and there meeting with the who’s who of the lenders, banks, rating agencies.
Ackman calculated the losses using a model supplied by an unnamed investment bank and sent the findings in a letter to the Securities and Exchange Commission and New York Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo. Ackman is a managing partner of Pershing Square Capital Management LP, which is trying to profit from declines in the stocks and bonds of MBIA and Ambac.
Ackman is on the attack. And letting the whole world know. Ackman, 41, stepped up his attack by posting on the Internet a list of asset-backed CDOs and other securities guaranteed by Armonk, New York-based MBIA and New York-based Ambac that allows others to craft their own loss predictions. Ackman didn’t say how he got details on the securities, many of which haven’t been disclosed by the companies.
This link is the actual artical. Good stuff
http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=21323
Ackman is putting it to his charitable foundation… anyways, even if he wasn’t, good for him… I have nothing but love for him and Shiller for pointing out the mess that people were ignoring.
And fuck Kudlow.
There’s only one way the bears win, and that’s if the government doesn’t backstop the monolines. And failing to do that is such an unthinkable outcome, it won’t happen. My god, they’re doing everything else they can to prop up the economy/markets, why would they step on their dick with the monolines?
Non-farm payrolls is a sideshow.
Q–
How do you embed a youtube in a post?
Doug Kass was money on todays call.
Ackman is also sharpening the tort lawyers pencils. For the guy to put out a letter like this with no reaction from any of the related parties. It speaks the truth..
I bet the unnamed investment bank is in fact Goldman!
There’s only one way the bears win, and that’s if the government doesn’t backstop the monolines.
The fact that the monolines will perish without government intervention is a pretty strong indication to me that there are many ways for the bears to win.
I can envision a government/industry rescue effort that somehow extracts the viable portion of the monoline business from the toxic waste those companies voluntarily ingested. Beats the hell out of me what we do with the toxic waste, though.
Can I just interrupt to say… DIE AMZN DIE… lose 70 you fucking high priced strip mall.
How?
AMZN got killed AH, got it short at 74.
JakeGint, just use youtubes embed code
Good for you MarketRaider on the AMZN short. I briefly thought about it when it initially spiked AH but, I did not have the guts to pull the trigger. On the other hand, I am wondering if SBUX is a good ST buy here @ 18.75.
Update- Bought a small position SBUX @18.78 for a ST trade. It’s the first time I bought SBUX in a couple of years. NASDAQ futures are getting hammered here so who knows.
What happens next for the bulls?
S&P announces ratings cuts coming on mortgaged backed securities. Bye Bye LEH!
It is only a half trillion dollars in debt that might be affected. No big deal.
I wonder if the 50-point cut was in part a response to the impending ratings cuts for the bond insurers and mortgage debt.
TraderCaddy,
I figured the market has butchered every tech stock to date after earnings this new year so what do I have to lose but some money right?
As for Starbucks they just announced are discontinuing warm breakfast sandwiches so maybe they are a short instead. 🙂
It’s not good, Uncle Ben already saw me. We sink further.
AMZN margins shrinking amid higher sales. hmmm. stock tanking afterhours.
Two weeks ago I posted here that Ackman was right about the monos. Met with deafening silence. Doesn’t matter – that man gets to cut open Cramer’s skull and use it for a chamberpot – with my blessing – not that he needs it, or anything else from anyone ever again.
Did anyone join the jrjc short for 8% this afternoon, or the amzn short I had pointed out as a viable position at 72, about hour and half and six dollars ago?
There’s nothing worse than a dumbfuck egomaniac and that is exactly what Cramer is. i started buying SKF at 110 a couple days ago..still buying, although i wish i had Fly’s crystal ball. this is a very precarious situation we are in with Friday’s NFM data. Today’s ADP data was very strong and although the correlation isnt perfect, it is still pretty good. If the NFM data is good, Cramer will be on parade again. Then again, i’m sure the fed saw the NFM figure and they did mention a soft job market. i’m standing on the sideline, not adding to my shorts, until after the NFM data. bottom line though, the shit must stink pretty bad if the fed cut 125 bps and the govt signed a $155 bn tax rebate within a 10 day timeframe.
{clap! clap!}
Bring on the scented oils!
Bring on the Spanish dancing dwarves!
Fly,
I think you nailed it. Great post. No matter what the non-farm numbers look like how many retail jobs will it take to support the U.S. consumer economy and spending. While working is something extremely important (no work – no eat) it’s hard to float the economy on FootLocker and Radio Shack employees.
Cramer’s buying a house… time to short home builders again.
holyfuckingshit cramer is recommending buying houses. he’s stupider than i thought.
I think Cramer had too much “excess cocaine” today.
I’ve never seen a man look so stupid, recklessly bullish, as everything around him is crumbling.
Cramer = EPIC FAIL
Market bottoms the day they pull Mad Money off air and fire Cramer.
wow.. i did.. srs – the comms have to follow their little brethren.
My asshat of the day nominee is William Ferguson of the FPL ADvisory Group, who says ‘Real Estate Executives Ready to Weather Capital Market Storm’.. because globalization is going to require commercial re space. It pisses me off enogh to hear globalization invoked if the soup kitchen is serving fuk yu fried rice.. but this is fucking ridiculous.
Watching Cramer. He is irresponsible for telling people to “pile in” on longs. Just insane watching this.
I will sell into any pop in the AM, if we get one.
How am I stupid?
Don’t you know that the Lightning Round on my show is like the most intense 5 minutes on television?
You think I know what the callers are going to say ahead of time?
Don’t make me throw an office chair on “live” television to prove that you are wrong, pal.
haileris- fail blog is very funny..thanks
Mad Money is a SHOW. Cramer’s main responsibility on said SHOW is to sell commercials, like any other advertising revenue supported SHOW.
He’s getting people to tune in (and be exposed to the commercials) by giving people what they want to hear – there’s a bull market somewhere – especially when the market is getting slammed hard.
He is very often wrong, but he sells a lot of commercial time, so that makes it all right. (He’ll be keeping his job)
Is it sinking in yet?? Sheesh.
So what? You want people to stop making fun of him?
No thanks.
Very entertaining-
I missed your point. Your point was?
Fly, most here probably do not remember the cease and desist letter from ye olde Top Ticker.
I recall, when the Fly was in his beginnings, posting the rants of a mad man.
SKF+
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN3023086820080131?rpc=44
Not fer nuthin’, but the reason the market sold off today was because of a guy (Ackman) who is heavily short the bond insurers saying the losses for the bond insurers could be huge?
Ummm, ok. And the capital of Djibouti is Djibouti.
Not saying the economy doesn’t suck, but the market tanking because of some short “talking up his book” sounds like ass-hattery to me.
Therefore I remain 100% cash until after Friday’s report. Until then, it’s thick cuts of ribeye and copious amounts of gin.
SKF up to 105 AH. bid-ask @ 105 – 105.89. Whoo whoo
(There’s a really small “Next Page” link on the bottom of the failblog page for more fun.)
Yeah, you loaded up your shorts, w/ AAPL & AMZN calls. Bwahaha!!
http://www.stockpickr.com/view/answers/35674/
Cramer says COF is the most vulnerable here.
http://www.stockpickr.com/view/answers/35593/
And he says the stimulus package is a loser
Bater …. some short? do you have any fucking idea whatsoever who Bill Ackman is? do you have any fucking idea how many people he made rich shorting during the last two years. If his letter can fuck the dow for 250 points after turning that cow on a dime, Ackman just put himself into some rare space. This is superstar type of play, and he played on our team – not the fuck us team like the Goldturds and the PPT do it.
The reason the xlf and market went to the tank today was bcause ,the CNBC reporter, today about 3;10pm on air said he had a gut feeling that the mono lines would be dowgraded tommorow, then cnbc came out saying it may be as early as today…strange huh? so you see the flea id just that a flea…long banks!
OK Calvino you win, he’s not “some short”. He’s MISTER Ackman. But, did anyone seriously not already know the monos were fucked? We knew this.
Anyway, the futures are red so enjoy your short selling gains tomorrow. I’m going to go stare at my cash earning 2% and dream of getting back into FXP at lower levels.
Nice analysis Fly. ADP is foreboding a pretty good number for payrolls. Besides Bill Ackman who is talking crap about ABK and MBIA is a short seller. The market will sooner or later realize that too. And then of course there are the negatives you have been so eloquently pointing out. Bottomline to me is that market is going to have huge swings either side. So I say my money is on the sidelines for intermediate term trades but am putting my money on extremely short term trades for extremely short term waves.
“The markets were looking for a big rate cut from the Federal Reserve, and that’s just what they got,” Jim Cramer told viewers of his “Mad Money” TV show Wednesday.
Cramer said there’s no reason now not to be bullish and —–>>>>>those who sold off were wrong. <<<——–
He said he’s so confident in the market that he would even consider buying a house. A turnaround in real estate is inevitable, he emphasized.
There are over 20,500 desperate sellers waiting for Cramer in San Diego County alone.
lol@bater. just hit bidu with 10 short shares tomorrow, for the fuck of it. maybe it won’t go up, and if it does what the hey, it’s only ten shares. and if it goes down then hit them hard. goog is going into the pen tomorrow looking sexy to the cons. bidu can not trade five times googs multis, less so when goog gets assaulted. i am not a financial advisor, and this advice is for experimental purposes only to be performed by pros.
As I said before, Cramer is suffering from dementia (more advanced now).
“A trader who doesn’t take vacations is a trader who doesn’t want to leave his book to anyone.” – Jerome Kerviel
In regards to financials, you’ll be hearing about the 1921 Martin Act.
The housing bottom will come faster than many expect. Until recently, prices have been artifically kept high due to the debt load on troubled properties – the perceived inability to “walk away” meant selling prices had an absolute floor.
Widespread realization that (in many states) borrowers really can just walk away and leave the banks to salvage whatever value possible from what’s left will [hopefully] cause asking price declines to accelerate the housing market will reach equilibrium and bottom.
Is the Platinum Party over already?
Back up we go?
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080130/20080130006403.html?.v=1
MBIA Announces Closing and Funding of $500 Million Investment from Warburg Pincus; David A. Coulter and Kewsong Lee Join Board of Directors; Richard Walker Resigns from Board to Avoid Potential Conflict of Interest
and
Billionaire U.S. investor Wilbur Ross is examining if he should invest in bond insurers, an investment he thinks could be over a billion dollars, he told CNBC on Thursday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINSIN28423320080131?rpc=44
Everybody and their brother says we go down tomorrow because of the poor reaction of stocks to the FED decision. I recall a couple of times in the recent past where the day after a FED decision the market reacts differently. Could it be that it was the old buy on the rumor (recent gains) and sell on the fact?
Boomer, did you read the fuking articles you are posting? the warburg deal is old news (they’re buying shares at $30 some odd dollars/shr) and if Wilbur really wants to buy a monoline then whe the fuck is he talking about it publicly. have you ever heard of a p/e or distressed buyer talk about a potential investment? he would be bidding up or creating speculation around something he wants the lowest price for entry. make sense?
Larry Kudlow = The Worst Story Ever Sold.
makes sense. i posted them because the bond insurers seem to have the most bearish focus, and these two news clips seem like damage control, as if a case were being made by the illuminati