iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,476 Blog Posts

Waiting for the Recession to Return

I’m eating a giant bowl of oatmeal now. I felt you should know that, considering its market moving implications.

Being in cash, I really have nothing meaningful to do, aside from throwing darts at Bernanke’s beard— for fucking up my stock market crash party.

Looking at the constant pressure the bulls are under, with bear raid after bear raid, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a late date sell off. Some of the financials are still blasting off, such as [[RDN]], [[PMI]], [[FMD]], [[ACF]], [[FIG]], [[LAZ]] and [[BEN]].

However, it’s worth noting, the fucking monolines, [[SCA]], [[MBI]], [[ABK]], are sucking wind, thanks to a delay in the NYS proposed bailout. Perhaps the bailout stems from the lack of funds? Just a thought.

Look, we’re getting a nice overdue bounce back, especially in heavily shorted stocks. Make no mistake, we are in a bear market. On this bounce, instead of looking for long set ups, you should be looking for shorts.

In my opinion, the size of the recent decline is unimportant—to an extent. I will not be convinced the market is due to rally, unless weakness persists until mid to late February.

Sorry, but as gut wrenching the recent decline was, it was too short. For a real washout to occur, most of you bullish fuckers need to get debanked, entirely.

For now, I will wait for a cheaper prices to reenter [[SMN]], [[DUG]] and [[FXP]]. I will not average down in [[SKF]], unless it dips to $90 or below.

If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter

39 comments

  1. jeff

    In the meantime hit the wiggy ciggy

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  2. JJ2000426

    The FLY:

    Told you yesterday to buy PAL. Why no action? Goes up like crazy today.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  3. JJ2000426

    Here is my plan with PAL and SWC:

    How To Make 20000 Fold Return in PAL

    Yes I am talking about making a 20000 fold return in PAL. That’s 2000000% return, with a 2 followed by SIX zeros, percentage!

    Start with 20K shares of PAL at $3.75 per share. Margin your position at 33.3333%. That means out of the 20K shares, 1/3 is your equity, 2/3 is borrowed money. The positions are 3 times larger than your equity.

    The important thing is keep your margin precisely at 33.33%. Don’t let it go too high or too low. No more no less. If your margin drops 1-2%, promptly sell some position to avoid margin call, if your margin goes up by 1-2%, promptly buy some PAL position to maintain the margin at 33.333%.

    This way, when PAL goes up by a certain percentage, you can promptly buy more positions and increase your position at twice the speed of the share price appreciation. For example, PAL goes up 1%, that should allow you to buy 2% more shares, or 400 shares.

    That means your positions will increase at the SQUARE of the share price increase. If PAL price double, your position will increase by a double of double, 4 fold. Total porforlio value increases at triple speed, or 8 fold, for each double of PAL price. Of course the reverse is also true. If PAL shrink by just half, your portfolio will shrink to 1/8. The math curve is reversible.

    If PAL increase from $3.75 to $102, an appreciation of 27.2 fold, your number of shares will increase square of that, 739.84 fold. And your total portfolio will increase by the cubic of 27.2, 20124 fold. You will have 14.8M shares at $102 per share, or $1.5B. Your equity is 33.333%. That makes you half a billionaire in 4 years.

    Stick with PAL investment and stick to the strategy.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  4. Juice

    you’ve been telling us to buy PAL since 8, one trick pony

    now go back on your meds

    on 2nd thought, you better start double dosing

    on 3rd thought; never you mind – you’re beyond help & hope

    enjoy fantasy land

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  5. CAP

    The Yen is weakening . No sell off to come. Follow the Yen and you’ll know where the markets are headed.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  6. The Fly

    Indeed. The fate of the globe relies on the Yen.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  7. Francesco

    from 3.75 to 102 ?
    yeah

    .
    .
    .
    .

    do you think it’s your good math abits to get someone looking seriously into your post.
    btw , looks really like someone who’s trying to sell something . mm bad seller btw . mmmm

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  8. wow

    fucking FLY,

    JJ was nice enough to tell you about PAL YESTERDAY! Today he outlines an awesome plan, such disrespect.

    Please post a 3 part series on PAL, thank you in advance.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  9. Gunners

    20000 fold. hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  10. wow

    This gubmint bailout is sweet! Raise, hell DOUBLE the jumbo loan limits so that you encourage people to double-down and re-buy a house that isn’t worth what is owed on it. Sign up everyone, enjoy the paycheck to paycheck life.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  11. alphadawgg

    “For a real washout to occur, most of you bullish fuckers need to get debanked, entirely.”

    Exactly. Four-digit DJIA wash out possible, I says. Could also take the form of multiple 300+ down days in a row.

    Setting up for another leg down.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  12. skot

    I’m a buyer of AAPL at 133.7. Can’t resist the computer nerdiness. Hopefully elite returns are in my future!

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  13. PAL stands for “Punk Ass Loser”, do not buy but instead sell sell sell.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  14. George Bush

    What the fuck are you guys crying about now? I just reached an agreement to give every red-blooded American free money!

    And did you see what mortgage rates are doing? Plummeting! Surf some forums and look at the number of people refi’ing right now. Wheee! Damn, I love cheap money.

    Go out and spend your free money on ipods and Uggs!

    Ungrateful bastards…..

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  15. Wimpy

    Holy Shit JJ,

    Your financial advice is impeccable. Not only will I zap my drawdown, but I should be able to retire before the year is out.

    But I’m not sure I can monitor my margin as brilliantly as you suggest. So, say I mail you all my funds and you do all that Livermore shit for me? Hurry! I’m itching to get out of cash.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  16. CubsRock

    We need to wash out the Bears first. Ma and Pa Short prob shit their depends this morn when they saw DECK hit 137.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  17. zephler

    deck to $200, uggs won’t die until 2009..

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  18. jeff

    so the FED loans 116M people x $300 = $35 Billion

    If I remember right, they tax that, giving them $10 Billion(to the FED), and further devalue our dollar to do this b.s. These are estimates, but they are genius.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  19. Dick Cheney

    George Bush- Shut the Hell up sir. Only a few more months will I have to put up with your gibberish. I can’t wait to back to HAL and my hunting buddies.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  20. TraderCaddy

    Nancy Pelosi is slacking off on her Botox injections.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  21. wow

    Pelosi… would ya?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  22. MarketRaider

    “Bankers Downplay Reports of Bond Insurer Rescue”

    “Bankers who met with New York insurance regulators to discuss a reported bailout of troubled bond insurers downplayed the meeting’s significance Thursday, with one calling it a “non-event.””

    So what is the point of this entire rally besides a technical exercise?

    Oh wait thats right we are celebrating the end of that killer recession. Anyone got a joint?

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/22823057

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  23. MarketRaider

    By the way, todays tape is making me have thoughts of killing myself in a slow and painful way.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  24. Chief_Rottingtooth
    Chief_Rottingtooth

    …hmmmm……massive doses of oatmeal….must be part of “The Fly”‘s secret to keeping a clear head and his extreme ability to focus for hours, days or weeks at a singular task at hand…..it has been a little more than three hours since he scarfed down the oatmeal….my medical background leads me to believe that the oatmeal bolus may have rounded the turn at the end of his transverse colon, which leads me to predict that “The Fly” may experience an episode of “extremely focused mental imaging”, once again, before the market closes today…….

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  25. RubsCock

    Who knew it was so easy to turn $75,000 into $1,500,000,000?

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  26. ovtiboboy

    I agree with the prediction for a market bounce for a few weeks, then total destruction… at the moment I believe OVTI is in the midst of a break out… fundamentals are awesome on that stock.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  27. MarketRaider

    “Fed Unaware on Jan. 21 of SocGen Loss”

    So does this mean bye bye to the now expected by the market 3/4 rate cut? This is classic.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=agExEa2kSYxc&refer=home

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  28. larry

    BPOE

    If I can’t find any Black Swans. Do black thongs count? I’m board being in cash.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  29. Q4

    I’ve been following the the monoliners for awhile. The devil is in the details. Even using conservative assumptions, the numbers are horrible.

    I had a feast on the way down and will have desert with the dead cat.

    Go MSFT, need to hit that 5 game parlay.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  30. Prospectus

    Yes! Nancy Pelosi is subsidizing my kids! http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22782454/from/ET/

    Of course, anyone with kids is broke, and will save it all rather than spend it. Not a lot of stimulation will be had from (or in) the homes of most of the rebate recipients…

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  31. alphadawgg

    Fly,
    I think somebody picked up on your strategy:

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/22825758/site/14081545

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  32. Q4

    An snapshot of the monoliners pain…

    “Credit-default swaps tied to the bonds of MBIA plunged to 825 basis points a year, down from 22 percent upfront and 500 basis points a year yesterday. That means the cost to protect $10 million in MBIA bonds for five years fell to $825,000 a year from $2.2 million upfront and $500,000 annually yesterday. Contracts on Ambac fell to 900 basis points from 22 percent upfront and 500 basis points a year, CMA prices show.”

    Billions, trillions, imagine another downgrade.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  33. hammer

    Sweet…looks like the Gov’t is going to help people buy more house than they can afford again.

    Get your McMansion this year…make your asshole neighbor jealous. Make sure to put the new Plazma in the front window so everyone can see it.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  34. George Bush

    So how you fuckers like my bailout plan? Free money to everyone, ‘cept you rich fuckers. Increase the size of conforming loans….everyone gets a McMansion!

    Cheap credit! Free money! Cheap hookers! Free meth! (Blow is soooo 1980s….)

    DOW 15000, here we come!

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  35. newequity

    The recession was caused by a rogue trader overseas. It is time to put that cash back to work people.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  36. CAP

    That Rogue trader Jerome was collaberating with the advertised ‘stock trading robot’ to debank the bulls.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  37. Greg P

    JJ aka Mark Anthony surely seems desperate for the world to believe he is the oracle of future platinum, palladium and tellerium metal prices.

    http://seekingalpha.com/author/mark-anthony

    perhaps he should crawl into a hole with his supplies of tellerium and wait till the end of the world, and arise victorious as the ruler of the new world.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"
  38. JJ2000426

    RubsCock Says:

    Who knew it was so easy to turn $75,000 into $1,500,000,000?

    It wasn’t easy. First it’s hard work to find a stock that appreciate from $3.75 to $102 in 4 years, before it happens, and you know with good certainty it will happen. This alone is very hard and requires lots of hard work doing due diligence research.

    Second, the math will work out perfectly. But your greed and fear will spoil your plan. The appreciation of your portfolio will go up at the cubic power of the share appreciation, but the reverse is also true. You are going to watch your portfolio to shrink to 1/8 if PAL only drops by 50%. And if it drops by 75%, your portfolio will drop to only 1/64 of the original value, or 1.5625%, or $75000 becomes $1172. Can you endure the fear and not sweat a drop of sweat when you see $$75000 shrink to $1172? If you can then you can see your portfolio to come back and make the money. It is not for every one.

    • 0
    • 0
    • 0 Deem this to be "Fake News"