iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,476 Blog Posts

The Recession is Over

So Cramer says it’s time to buy “early cycle stocks,” like shitty retailers or banks. He exclaims: “the worst they are, the better.”

I must admit, the recession of 2008 was plain ol’ vanilla gay. I mean, it had no teeth. During the entire recession, I witnessed only one soup line and three boarded up buildings. Other than that, my neighbor’s kept buying shit, without fear of job loss or house depreciation.

God willing, the next recession will bring some ol’ fashioned homelessness.

Bring back the soup lines and the low-end dock jobs.

Anyway, with regards to this market:

Following yesterday’s terrific bounce, I expect to see follow through. However, unlike other ‘tards, if I were giving advice to people who actually invested real money, as opposed to excess cash—post cocaine expenditures,  I’d suggest buying stocks with good fundamentals, such as [[CLX]], [[RIMM]], [[GILD]], [[FMCN]] or even [[VLO]].

Currently, as you know, I have a gigunta cash position, with a decent sized short position in the financials, via [[SKF]].

Listen to me: I will live this trade. I will not walk away from killing a few “early cycle” bank plays. My game plan includes sitting around, drinking some Monster Energy soda, taking short naps, going for egregious walks, then nibbling at SKF—until the banks fuck themselves, again.

Waiting for the proverbial “shoe to drop,” if you will.

Aside from that, I hate [[DECK]] and the assholes who buy their boots. I shoulda, woulda, coulda covered my short yesterday, when it was down $17. However, now I own the bitch, for better or for worse.

Finally, I may try my luck on a few long side trades, specifically within financials, despite hating them. I might hedge my hedges with [[UYG]] or worse [[SAW]].

Developing…

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60 comments

  1. BOOMER

    Rumor: ATI to acquire BOOM.

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  2. alphadawgg

    Cramer is suffering from a mild case of dementia.

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  3. BOOMER

    I am so fucking frozen today. Cant buy cant sell. just locked up. I am so off balance. I cant believe I gave away BOOM yesterday. Shit.

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  4. Juice

    take a chill pill BoomBoom ….. your pitch will come, you’ll see it & then …. BOOM !

    patience, my son

    .. fuck DECK & those uggly shoes, a pair of which, I am long, of. It was a gift, no comments please, but they are comfy.

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  5. Helicopter Ben

    I’m gonna take the day off today, guys. Well, other than hanging with some of the monoline insurer guys, figuring out which foreign country is going to prop them up. Not gonna be any of those stinky French banks…damn frogs can’t even keep their traders in line.

    Dont forget: If you don’t go long financials and consumer discretionary today, you don’t love America! And we know who you are….

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  6. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Why is DECK at all time highs again? This is dumb, I am going to eat a sandwich. This is just fucking ignorant.

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  7. larry

    BPOE:

    Long live the Fly. You are better than MONSTER energy drinks. The trading GODS are still with you.

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  8. Green Writer

    Don’t hedge your hedge with shit.
    Play the momentum like MOS and POT…Just sold MOS @ 89…hoping to get back in @83-84.
    Peace

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  9. Granpa

    Foolio Says:
    my balls were literally blown off this afternoon.

    I am so sorry to hear that. Paints a bad picture too.

    Cheese deserves credit for the first post of that Cramer vid making a complete asshat of himself. How can smart college kids look up to that jackass? Oh, short memories again.

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  10. The Fly

    Nah, I’ll do nothing.

    Nice trade.

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  11. jeff

    No follow through, printing more cash and $300, fuck these guys.

    Prepare for your National ID cards slaves. You will all be under Cheney mind control soon, so you better perfect your trading bot.

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  12. The Fly

    BREAKING NEWS:

    The recession may be back.

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  13. Vince Lombardi

    Fly, just wait the other shoe will drop by mid next week. Bear markets don’t last days or weeks, they last months.

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  14. Ian

    Guess that housing data spoiled the rally.

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  15. wow

    Great news Fly, I just found out i won in the bidding war for the shack.. i mean home I bought in what the Realtor is telling me is an area that will eventually be gentrified… I thought 550k was a good price.. I took out an option only ARM at 120% value, so i’ve got some more appreciation out of it. Now i’m going to go buy a car and a plasma tv today.

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  16. Granpa

    Boker, does XOM(short)/DUG look good going into the 10:30 supply numbers?

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  17. china bear

    among other things, Fed will look at recent jobs data and will look at graph of home inventory data (which looks like it just topped out…) and no way will they add more gas next week. worst case: no recession, no more cuts, no more growth. worser case: recession still pending but Fed is done reacting till march. Crisis over? I’ll believe it when I see it here:

    http://www.markit.com/information/products/abx.html

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  18. JakeGint

    Gaps– here’s my DECK comment from last thread (to Hammer):

    _____________

    Hammer,

    Pretty amazing. DECK hit the ceiling of the 23.6% retrace fib almost to the penny at $137.80 today and immediately bounced back down from there.

    Next retrace line (down) is 38.2% at $119.95, so you can probably figure that’s your “channel” if we are range bound here for a bit.

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  19. JakeGint

    Take a look at the Cubes… not so healthy.

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  20. Employee8

    Looks like lots are hitting the honeyhole here … DE, AGU, CCF & DECK

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  21. jeff

    Always look on the short side of life.

    Alert: go short

    Pay Cintras (the Spaniards) for your ride on our US highways.

    And, as always, bet on the Illuminati companies

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  22. Low Tick

    Fly, what is your opinion on MO? Three year time horizon.

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  23. Employee8

    SKF bounced off the 50 …. Odd, no?

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  24. zephler

    Fly you should rethink your DECK short….

    The bullish argument for this stock is pretty simple. It will take up to 5 quarters to identify a slowdown in the growth of Uggs. Uggs sold out in 2007. The word on the street is Uggs have pre-orders for the entire 2008 Uggs product line.

    What is to stop Decker leadership from painting a rosey picture for the rest of 2008? If they are wrong- it will not be reported till the end of FEB 2009. Decker’s insiders own less than 4% of the outstanding shares- so they don’t have much to lose. Go to Decker’s web-site and notice that they actually list by broker and name each analyst that covers DECK. I have never seen this done before but I sense it is a conflict of interest and an ethical issue.

    IMO- Uggs are over, but this won’t be evident until January 2009. I beleive this is the reason PUTS are not available after SEP 2008.

    As posted many times before, DECK is a zero float stock. A handful of hedge funds and institutions own over 90% of DECK. The largest shareholder of DECK is a wicked hedge fund out of NYC called Renisance. These guys are not into value investing- they are into gang style manipulations of the equities they work. In the short term these guys are unbeatable. They don’t ever pick a fair fight. They work it buy using their money to manipulate an equity. They have a huge amount of capital to do this. The only risk they have is being left a bag holder- but their record indicates they know just when to exit- just like their mentor Goldman Sachs (these guys are all former Goldman bankers and still work in synch with Goldman- none of these guys work independent).

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  25. BOOMER

    Bill Cara pointed out that the recent rallys occured after European markets closed.

    Meaningless, but interesting.

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  26. alphadawgg

    GDub,
    Nice trade on MOS. I made a mistake on POT yesterday, trying to get cute. Sold it for 3 pts and change, then thought I could buy it back under 113 before the close, knowing full well it would beat the numbers. Left lots of coins on the table for the next guy. Yes, I am a generous bloke.

    Playing with POT and MOS today.

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  27. jeff

    Rothschild at work – Fed is owned by them

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  28. nncoco

    Re: Illuminati companies.

    What is your watch list?

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  29. alphadawgg

    Check out the homies.

    Wow, The Fly is right. The recession must be over!

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  30. TraderCaddy

    What recession? This is a BS recession so far. One needs rising unemployment and lower wages. It may have JUST started with the last employment report, MAYBE. Credit contraction maybe, but business is still getting their $$ from lenders. I am so confused. This may be a 1984 type slowdown and that ended up with a big run ’85-’89.

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  31. alphadawgg

    TC-
    Have you been talking to Chopper Ben?

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  32. alphadawgg

    Goldman and Credit Suisse saying negative GDP for Q2 and Q3.

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  33. Flux Capacitor

    What recession? This is a BS recession so far. One needs rising unemployment and lower wages.

    _____________

    The “jobfull” recession is a natural consequence of the last “jobless recovery”. All of the disposable workforce that used to be cannon fodder during a recession (tech/science/engineering/industrial) has been shipped offshore.

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  34. TraderCaddy

    No, been talking to Uncle Larry Krudlow.

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  35. buylo

    lot of BS here today, you guys should be trying to figure out how to get on the other side of another $7 Billion loss, then you can buy-out Deckers and print some more coin

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  36. jeff

    Look for the all-seeing eye my man GE UTX UNH, buffet, there are lots…

    https://bp0.blogger.com/_tuC10FmMcl4/RkOlz8QA5bI/AAAAAAAAAbQ/34P96OizEI4/s1600-h/illuminati1.jpg

    http://www.teslawasright.blogspot.com

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  37. ezthere

    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/?s=jerome+kerviel

    Here’s my vote. First asshat of 2008

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  38. PleaseKillMe

    I see the same signs here in Chicago.

    My neighbor was sporting a new Affliction shirt last night. This is his third one, and I never seen him feel more like a man. I’ve seen all the prints, but this one was radical. It had the knife going up through the skull instead of down. Just days ago he was worried about getting fired at his job.

    Then this morning I saw this girl sporting her new Northface jacket. It was pink with fur lining the jacket arms. She was all smiles as she came out of the American Apparel store.

    Guys, retail is back. Christmas 2007 has been extended.

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  39. larry

    BPOE:
    FLY
    Is ducati MOSES? [Business Cycle Theory] Doesn’t he know all Theories are made to be broken. A fool by randomness ? There were over 600 original commandments. They had to trim them to 10 to get the herd to follow.

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  40. JakeGint

    El Jeffe:

    Bohemian Grove is not a “political group.” Bunch of drunken old Cally WASPs who are escaping their wives for a week or two in the summer.

    Member I know is a Repub, but there are plenty of Dems in it too (it is a San Fran group, after all).

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  41. JakeGint

    Fly — did you get my query on the NY muni bond situation. Are you keeping clients in that sheeyite?

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  42. jeff

    http://www.greatdreams.com/political/bohemian-1947.jpg

    looks like it to me

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  43. TraderCaddy

    NYC Bankruptcy-shades of Mayor Beame circa 1975-Gerald Ford to NYC “Drop Dead”

    Good Times

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  44. jeff

    FIRE UP THE TIME MACHINE

    we are in a holding pattern

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  45. JakeGint

    Jeff — that’s just somebody’s “camp.”

    That’s the way it works, guys who have a “camp” invite their buds… in this case, the rich and powerful dude invited Nix and Reagan, and probably some others I did not recognize.

    But there can be a “camp” right next door that has a bunch of Dem pols, or retail exectutives, or whatever.

    It’s not monolithic is my point. And various camps can really be extremely different, politically, culturally, amount-of-dough-wise, etc, etc.

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  46. JakeGint

    BTW — that’s not 1947… Nix and Reagan look too old.

    Mid-60’s maybe.

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  47. The Fly

    Jake:

    I would never embarrass myself in muni’s.

    Fuck the tax shelter. Too low a yield.

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  48. jeff

    jake – i agree with everything you say…

    I don’t care as much about bohemian grove. My point is that there really is ‘1 guy’ that has 1/2 or more of the world’s wealth.

    Rothschild = Vatican bankers

    It goes on and on. The stock market and the economy do not correlate. What correlates is when Roth decides to expand or contract, as in the depression, when they contracted the money supply huge.

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  49. mrkcbill

    DECK = CWTR

    Except end user is better looking…not including Juice.

    Jucie…do you tuck your jeans in the boots?

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  50. Woodshedder

    AT the honey hole:

    HON, DE

    I will wait to later this afternoon if I initiate a short.

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  51. JakeGint

    Fly — so you dont’ di-worsify your clients’ portfolios?

    Even the old fuckers?

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  52. jeff

    Accounting for the Rothschild Wealth and Influence
    Morton (1962) noted that the Rothschild wealth was estimated at over $6 billion US in 1850. Not a significant amount in today’s dollars; however, consider the potential future value compounded over 147 years!

    Taking $6 billion (and assuming no erosion of the wealth base) and compounding that figure at various returns on investment (a conservative range of 4% to 8%) would suggest the following net worth of the Rothschild family enterprise:

    $1.9 trillion US (@ 4%)
    $7.8 trillion US (@ 5%)
    $31.5 trillion US (@ 6%)
    $125,189.1 trillion US (@ 7%)
    $491,409.0 trillion US (@ 8%)

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  53. Employee8

    CF too Woody, No?

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  54. TraderCaddy

    Fly puts his older clients in real estate at Century Village in South Florida.

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  55. The Fly

    How dare you suggest I have old clients.

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  56. CAP

    The retailer to get long would be BKE. These guys make money. I went to the mall to check shit out. AEO ARO ANF GPS are all empty. BKE has people there spending money and buying stuff. Apparently they are very much in tune with fashion. GPS AEO ARO ANF are not. BKE sells good shit. I was thinking off buying stuff there. I would be to embarrassed to shop at ANF AEO ARO GPS etc.

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  57. CAP

    FLYs clients are the wheelchair, adult diaper crowd.

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  58. joe

    Why would you hedge an SKF position with UYG? Am I missing something here?

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  59. Q4

    Woodshedder:

    HON has been on my radar. I initiated launch sequence at $56.50

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