iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,476 Blog Posts

Bulls Win Again

What a fucking turnaround, once again. It goes to show you, when things look most dire, it is time to buy.

Kudos to Cramer and Kass for calling the bottom in financials, much to my chagrin.

This is what I did:

I sold all my my inverse etf’s, with the exception of [[SKF]] and [[EFU]]. Additionally, stubbornly, I continue to hold my [[DECK]] and [[LEH]] shorts.

My largest position, by far, is cash.

Look, I realize a bailout of [[MBI]] and [[ABK]] will do wonders for the banks. I’m not oblivious. However, it does not mean the banks will be back to business. There is still significant pressures within lending.

In short, I am prepared to ride SKF down another 20 points, before buying more. I will not average down here.

With today’s rally, the DOW is barely down 7%, year to date—hardly a painful decline.

When buying stocks, keep in mind, Joey Bag-o-Donuts is still one poor motherfucker, unable to buy that third plasma tv.

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74 comments

  1. Gunship Ben

    There’s blood on the streets, boys…just happens to be bear blood today….

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  2. The Fly

    Funny.

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  3. jeff

    Fly goes neutral.

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  4. JakeGint

    Remember when you said you weren’t going to get more Skiffles until it hit $100?

    Then you relented, and bought at $111, much to your non-chagrin?

    That was like, what?… Five days ago?

    This is no freaking old lady market, that’s for sure.

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  5. BOOMER

    fuck me

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  6. MarketRaider

    So if Cramer and Kass called a bottom in financials and the financials rallied like crazy, does that negate what Cramer and Kass said?

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  7. The Fly

    I change opinions by the second.

    Too much caffeine.

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  8. china bear

    i’m tellin ya mvis mvis mvis. I know this induces gag reflex in everyone here, but first hints of covering are showing up. any decent recovery will provide major return. the short bullets have been shot there.

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  9. fuck you! you're dead
    fuck you! you're dead

    time machine broke?

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  10. The Fly

    MVIS has been archived in my mind as a fucked up memory.

    No interest until late 2008.

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  11. The Fly

    Time machine is in the repair shop.

    The fucking wheels fell off, late in the day.

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  12. Employee8

    Won’t the banks be banking coin with the spread on deposits to loans with current and future rate reductions? That said, SKF is off 25% in two days and oversold no doubt.

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  13. Richard A.

    funny thing about that poor joe. I just saw him in a line, waiting to buy a pair of Air Jordans for $250. It was a long line.

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  14. Juice

    changing market opinions by the second is vital for survival … I mean whiplash ..

    I mean stubborness does not work as a trader

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  15. RagingBull

    If your not inside your outside, now go get your shine box.

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  16. Henry C.

    Fly,
    With this short upcoming rebound, you think the Feds are still cutting rates on Tuesday? If no, you think it will be a good entry point for short?
    Wayne Angel (Former Fed) said he don’t think the fed will lower rates lower than 3% and is somewhat skeptical of a Tuesday cut.

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  17. Van

    You’re…

    What a day. Must resist urge to short into the rally. Must resist.

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  18. Employee8

    Anyone know what’s up with DECK …. down 7 in AH

    http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/ExtendedTradingTrades.aspx

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  19. jeff

    we still go lower folks

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  20. Weed

    Can someone please explain to me why CDO’s even exist? Aren’t they too expensive? No wonder banks are losing money.

    “Credit-default swaps on New York-based Ambac and MBIA, in Armonk, New York, indicate the companies have a more than 60 percent chance of defaulting. The contracts cost $1.9 million initially and $500,000 a year to protect $10 million of debt from default for five years, according to CMA Datavision.”

    —-Bloomberg.com

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  21. buylo

    question please: ok everyone knew we were overdue for a bounce. Then, today, you saw it happen while it happened. -300 to +300 on the dow in 1-2 hours. If you are truly nimble and have access to 6 or 8 screens, a dozen indicators, charts, volume, RSI, Sto, Bloomberg, etc etc is that not enough to give you a signal as to what to do in this case:out of shorts, into longs, at least for a few days? Or is the human emotion factor still a huge factor? just trying to learn – thanks

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  22. ottnott

    Ben and the bond-insurance talks aren’t fixing any underlying issues. There are still massive losses to be taken on stupid loans made on assets that have declined substantially in value.

    All that is happening is bandaging to slow the bleeding and prevent catastrophic lockup of the finance industry.

    Meanwhile, out in the US economy reality show, banks are finding that they are having to foreclose on homes owned by people who can afford their mortgage payments, but have decided not to be patsies and keep paying on a loan that is $100,000 higher than the value of the home. Better to just mail the keys in, rent for a while, and buy when homes are cheaper.

    That behavior requires the industry to switch from placing its faith almost entirely on buyer creditworthiness (real or “undocumented”) to relying on faith in a buyer’s equity (a function of downpayment and changes in home market value).

    Does a bank in California dare do a 0%-down loan in this environment? 3%? 5%? 10%? 15%?

    Prices have been falling several % per month in recent months. How can you make non-recourse loans in that environment without requiring a large downpayment? And if you require a large downpayment, what happens to the home prices and sales volume.

    We are still in the self-reinforcing phase of the downward spiral, IMO.

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  23. Propsectus

    FEAR THE BEARD

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  24. alphadawgg

    I used today to buy some SRS and SKF.

    Will things get worse with financials? I’m hoping so. (Now, that is fucked up thinking. Inverse ETFs are like crack cocaine…no, meth.)

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  25. Dinosaur Trader

    Fly,

    It was fun while it lasted. I kind of hate it when you get all neutral though… your humor suffers.

    Anyway, it’s all about “Ben the Beard” now and January 30th.

    -DT

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  26. MasterDebater

    Ok, bad day. Now, everybody put on a couple of longs to appease the bitch goddess market, drink poor man’s whiskey tonight, and lets all step back and reevaluate this whole “Armageddon” thing while Fly puts the wheels back on the time machine. I think that we at least re-test S&P 1270 if not go lower, but maybe not for 2-3 months.

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  27. Juju bear

    We will go right back down again tomorrow, ladies. The markets will be range bound the next 3 – 6 months with lots of volatility. Daytraders dream.

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  28. alphadawgg

    Old man trader was right on today on his SSO at 1270 S&P. I hope he followed his own advice.

    OMT = Peachin?

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  29. Helicopter Ben

    I’m taking the markets up about 10% over the next few weeks.

    Don’t make me break out the gunship again.

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  30. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    I am so glad the crisis is over. Yipee no recession! I am going to start buying PMI and CFC and high beta bullshit

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  31. alphadawgg

    Chopper,
    Your beard is your downfall. Nobody takes anyone with a beard seriously. I mean, take Santa, for example.

    Case closed.

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  32. JakeGint

    Yo Propsectus (sic),

    That’s some pretty funny shit (“turn beard power ON!”), but are you sure you’re spelling your name properly?

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  33. alphadawgg

    Jake-
    Leave a man alone with his dyslexai [sic], I say.

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  34. JakeGint

    Alpha —

    I’m pretty sure OMT = KC Bill.

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  35. Schoolmarm

    Alph, sorry, but shit like that drives me crazy.

    (oops! Did I say the “ess” word?? –blushing–)

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  36. Prospectus

    LMOA

    I am dyslex[sic]

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  37. alphadawgg

    Prospectus–

    LMOA?

    Yoda you are?

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  38. calvino

    What the fuck is next, they are going to subpoena my broker’s ledger and start using taxpayer money to bid the other side of my short sales? I don’t give a fucc if you catch me – if AAPL beat and Ebay gave your double digit margin growth – that’s just fucking fine. But this is the fucktards who should now be hustling blow jobs on Times square fingerfucking with Ben and Hank and trickfucking my positions. Ambac and Mbia getting bailed out with my fucking tax money and then my short money.

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  39. The Fly

    SKF ate my balls.

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  40. calvino

    crm ate my balls, with a demure little 10% percent intraday swing. The fuckbitch rolled over and died 5% down when I threw more short money at it, and then the Fed fingerfuckers with their Crameroon inspired fuckplan for the mono fucking lines.

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  41. tomcoughlinsbrokenbloodvessels
    tomcoughlinsbrokenbloodvessels

    Listen JGint we will not tolerate this locker room gossip BS before our big game. I’m going to fine your ass $75 dollars and you lose 1 day’s per diem when we get to AZ

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  42. nullpointer

    are you fucking kidding me?

    i will concede:

    1. i am an internet fucktard
    2. the reversal today was HUGE and powerful
    3. we were WAY oversold
    4. you guys are traders. so you have to be able to flip on a dime

    but i cant believe you guys arent taking this as a golden opportunity to short again. do you really think yesterdays weak manufactured capitulation day was it?

    i have a stack of cash, and i want to go long, but it doesnt feel right – feels like we have another leg down.

    thoughts?

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  43. pythagoruz

    “Sell the Banks!”

    You’re a real piece of work. dumbass.

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  44. alphadawgg

    Bot SKF at 106.88 near the close. Any follow thru on the financials tomorrow and I will be out of it, balls hopefully intact.

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  45. Brandon Jacobs

    Jake,
    Don’t listen to coach. He’s an asshat with an overly red face.

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  46. tomcoughlinsbrokenbloodvessels
    tomcoughlinsbrokenbloodvessels

    Bradshaw you get the start. Jacobs we will be using you in the red zone and 3rd and shorts only. Keep it up.

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  47. calvino

    Null, it’s not that easy. My bids to cover kept getting taken away before I could retype. I covered deck and crm by hitting bid at the ask – the kind of crap that I would not do unless I had inside information that Miicrosoft and Berkshire Hathaway were about to launch competing hostile takeover offers. Charts do not move in ziggurats, like they did today – this monoline stinkbomb was floated like a silent fart and snuck up on me.

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  48. CAP

    SKF will print $99 by Friday. May be a good buy then. Dow prints 13000 in 4 weeks. 50MA will be resistance.

    WOODSHEDDER go prepare those charts. Need a visual of the famed Honeyhole.

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  49. Brandon Jacobs

    Bradshaw is one of the “little people”. My thighs are bigger than his torso.

    Coach Coughlin, put some aloe vera on that face, cracka ass cracka.

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  50. Helicopter Ben

    I’m looking at DOW 13K, S&P 1400. I concur with the 4 week timeframe.

    Bulls have been fighting hard…they’re gonna stampede now.

    Sell into it. Next leg down will be better. Even my gunship won’t help the bulls then.

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  51. dylanratiganscentralnervoussystem
    dylanratiganscentralnervoussystem

    Fly is right–Mom and Pop are tapped out. The Car Lots are full of dirty iron. Home equity is in the shitter. We can drop rates to 1% but you still have to have a dollar to borrow a dollar.

    Off to Starbucks

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  52. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Man do you guys remember when we were talking about recession fears the other day? Good times! Hey the talk about a new DOW record and party hats at CNBC is all the rage now. All that bank mess went poof. Ben the man for president. He saved the economy! This man is a genius!

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  53. Dinosaur Trader

    Gappy,

    Amazing how short memories are in the market.

    I’m thinking of picking up a condo in West Palm Beach to flip by the summer… we’ll see.

    -DT

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  54. Brandon Jacobs

    Late day thoughts:
    May Tom Brady’s motherfuckin’ foot develop sores.

    May Helicopter Ben’s cracka ass wishes come true.

    May market bulls get their punk ass handed back to them tomorrow.

    May Coach Coughlin play me the whole game against the motherfuckin’ Pats. I spit on Jr. Seau.

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  55. Woodshedder

    CAP-

    will do.

    Unfortunately, its 6 p.m. eastern standard, so it will be a bit before I get the charts up.

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  56. JakeGint

    You almost killed Darren Woodson when he tried to tackle you high on Sunday, BJ, I think you’d certainly put old man Junior in a body cast if he attempted the same.

    Still say Bradshaw gets more touches, though.

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  57. Granpa

    Talk about short memories, Cramer the Bear, is sounding pretty Bullish.Claims the bottom is in.
    Fuckin asshat of the decade.

    Great vid Cheese with him saying he’s been bearish while he touts his bullish shit. Unfuckingbelievable!

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  58. Employee8

    Anybody here hop on VMI today? …. bottomed at 76 and left a nice Hammer …

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  59. BOOMER

    I had 15k BOOM at 43. Sold at 46. Went to a meeting. Come back, fucker is at 50!!! FUCK ME. I waited so fucking long for that money, and it was mine and now it is not. Fuck.

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  60. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    DT me too, I plan to speculate and leverage up 100x in the Miami and Vegas market. Planning to buy a ton of HOV, TOL and XHB!

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  61. Ian

    I’m betting that IF the initial claims tomorrow blow balls, people are gonna sell again. If they are only moderately bad or inline then this rally will probably continue. Did you guys see Bidu? Wish I had caught that bounce.

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  62. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Broker do you figure we go straight up to 14,000 tomorrow or you think we will just go up 500 points each day since all of the credit crisis is over and we will see rate cuts every month until years end?

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  63. Employee8

    Boomer, I was watching FTI and BOOM and figured you were riding that bull to the close …. sorry to hear you got out early but the sane thing to do under the circumstances.

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  64. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    ALL CLEAR FOR RETAIL – According to Jeff Mackey. Consumer strong like bull he say.

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  65. sysin3

    Shee-it.

    If y’all can trade this whippage, you’re greek gods or lying bitches.

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  66. Howie

    Its nice to see the Flea is human,and he can and dose cry like any other barbie doll wanna b, by that post up their in where his big PINK wjeelies fell off his fanstay!

    ps i TOLD YOU SUCKERS TO BUY ABK AND MBI FRIDAY

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  67. BOOMER

    Fly, are you thinking he worst is over? Time to go long?

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  68. cellshort

    You nutcases should have spanked the rally monkey when I posted the bitch at 2:20. Next time, don’t sit around with your fingers up your ass. When the rally monkey says buy … cover your shorts and go long.

    Tomorrow at open, grab what didn’t move. Find yourself some Aerospace. BEAV, TGI, GR, HXL, LMIA, DCO, TDG. This bullshit about BA 787 pushback is nothing but noise to these names. They’ll blow past their numbers and those waterfall charts will look like nothing but dumbfucks in panic mode. The snapback in Aerospace will be fierce.

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  69. alphadawgg

    Sorry to break up the party, but today was a typical rally in a bear market; shorts were covering today. This is part of the prequel to the next leg down.

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  70. Employee8

    How bout SPR?

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  71. TraderCaddy

    This rally was well telegraphed this A.M. XLF,XHB,SMH, KRE (Regional bank ETF) and their respective stocks pretty much stayed positive even when the big decline in the averages was in process. In fact, I said positive things about INTC and SMH early in the day. Major buying was coming in during the general market decline.
    It may last a few more days if we are in a bear market as bears don’t end like this. They end when we have grinding day after day of declines and everybody gives up.

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  72. Foolio

    my balls were literally blown off this afternoon. i had gains on DUG that i closed this morning but left my 6k short position via DXD on. i had to step away from my desk and i’m fuking down $20k. motherfuker……it looks like the fuking rally is finally here. anyone else lose their nutsack today?

    i think these late day rallies are an indication that a s-t rally will occur. how high do we go??? maybe just under 13k, but there is so much uncertainty with MSFT earnings (i think the outlook will be bad but who the fuk knows), jobs next friday and the next fed meeting.

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  73. alphadawgg

    TC-
    Correcto on your bear market comment.

    We also haven’t had that final big washout day, after weeks in the meat grinder. You know, a 4-digit down day and 2x-3x the average daily volume.

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  74. Q4

    Capitulation will come soon enough.

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