iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,488 Blog Posts

Stick to the Program

Look, without question I feel the market will be much lower by March. All rallies will be theater, nothing of substance.

Should the Fed cut, I will sell into it, then bulk up on shorts. Because of my bias, I will not buy the dips, even for a trade.

Instead, I will hold cash, then reposition into double inverse etf’s. As of now, I’m looking to buy [[SMN]], which gets me short basic resource stocks, including [[MON]].

Don’t get me wrong, I think MON is a great stock. However, there is a ceiling to the amount I will pay for watermelon seeds.

By the way, what do you chart chomping type think of [[XOM]] here? My technician says: “it’s forming a head and shoulders top here Fly.”

Again, [[DUG]] gets you short XOM.

Bottom line: I’m covering some shorts, but will not attempt to play the upside, since it goes against my long term strategy. Getting cute with trades is the root of all tax losses.

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59 comments

  1. Danny

    awesome shit. thanks fly.

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  2. Juice

    well said

    and thats what I’m mostly doing

    covered a boatload this am & will wait to reload

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  3. JakeGint

    Are you lightening up on the Poop, DECK?

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  4. JakeGint

    Covered some, but could not resist taking a whack at EWZ after it cracked that 74.50 mark this morning.

    So far, so good.

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  5. tehdrunky

    how do you feel about logi into earnings?

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  6. Alvari40

    Fly,

    The H&S is shaky due to right shoulder not being lower than the head – weekly chart. However, even if you reject that, my oscillator shows that that last push up triggered an overbought condition that needs to correct. I use the 34 EMA and any convincing close below that trendline would trigger the sell signal. One could call it a H&S breakdown, another would say breakdown of an overbought condition. Either way, it supports a move down from these levels.

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  7. Juice

    EWZ is toast, Mozillo style

    fwiw , not covering DECK

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  8. Danny

    Teh – Logi blows.

    but, pull up a three month chart to see what happened last quarter.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LOGI&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p87780292967

    I would love to gamble on it, but won’t

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  9. The Fly

    Not covering DECK. No way.

    Looking for 100 points on this one.

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  10. tehdrunky

    danny– i was going to buy puts

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  11. malt liquor Bull

    the 200dma has been a trampoline the past 4 tests for XOM,I dont know what the underlying fundamentals were during each test but its interesting chart shit.said the samething about CELG awhile back and it broke down hard.Hey,speaking of CELG…….

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  12. Juice

    btw, my voodoo doc sez bears beware & be wary of tomorrow

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  13. tehdrunky

    fly– how quick do you think deck will shit the shower?

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  14. JakeGint

    TEH Drunky —

    Review a chart of CROX for an update on what DECK will look like soon.

    Also, if you lookl at HLYS in mid July of this year, that’s about where we are with DECK right now.

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  15. theflyisajoke

    Yeah we get it: the Tout, err, Fly will perfectly buy every rally and short every fade. He’ll make 7% daily without exception.

    Tell me how that MVIS worked out again? Funny how it was 10% of his holdings but he successfully sold right at the top even though he touted it daily.

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  16. malt liquor Bull

    fuck you joke

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  17. Richard A.

    looks like the market got around to reading those FED books.

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  18. The Chad

    thejoke sounds like a sad little man whose positions are being lit-the-fuck-up. You should have listened to the Fly rather than try and fight him.

    Anyone that reads this site knows that he changed his tune only when the market signaled the change.

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  19. Alvari40

    theflyisajoke,

    Why do you bother? Seriously, if you hate the Fly so much either go away to a group of your own kind or ignore the Fly (thank him first for allowing this blog to exist) and engage the others that have something constructive to say. Why the fuck does it bother you that there are those that thank the Fly for his picks, blog and opinions? What is the fucking point to your hateful behavior. As for MVIS, he did sell at that level just as CES was humming. I was there watching and positioning along with him. You cannot even do your fucking homework before you blast someone. You lazy, potato chip eating, Coors drinking, couch slouching mutherfucker. Oops – there I go…sorry about that. Back to our regularly scheduled program.

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  20. JakeGint

    Anyone see the bullish engulfer on ADI today?

    Makes one wonder…

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  21. Fook Mi Yung

    Bernanke and Paulson are sticking to the Program. The program of injecting liquidity into this market. The spike up in prices are mightly suspicious.

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  22. Alvari40

    Jake,

    Now that you mentioned it…..yes. The bullish engulfing came on an oversold open, so the rebound should at least see 29.80 to the upside if you believe in that chicken bone tossing ritual called Technical analysis…..which I do.

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  23. JakeGint

    Sac–

    I do believe in it, although I’m no expert… I’m just trying to tell if it means “sea change” or just “bounce.”

    Reason it’s important is that ADI has traditionally been a “core leader” in the past. Granted, it’s lost it’s position, but…

    ________________

    To “FlyisajokeisJake, etc” — Listen up Asshat, if I have a problem with Fly I address him in my original tag here, so there’s no mistaking.

    I may “tweak” him as a “character” in the spirit of “good fun,” but I don’t throw meanspirited shit at him from behind an anonymous front.

    As it’s apparent YOU* do, you cowardly fucktard.

    __________
    (* Don’t think I don’t have an idea of whom you are either, dufus.)

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  24. Woodshedder

    Jake I hit EWZ first thing this morning.

    I wonder if Danny followed the plan and got some too.

    I was out of the office the rest of the day and missed the big push down to cover a bit.

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  25. JakeGint

    Addendum: FWIW, the owners of this blog can SEE whose IP is behind every post, so don’t think you’re fooling anyone, anyhow, chickenshit.

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  26. Alvari40

    LACO ( 14.50%).

    It’s easy for me to call this out today due to the runup; however, truth be told, I have held this since the 8.50 level. This company contracts with Tribal Governments to build and operate casinos mostly in CA. They did recently open one in Mich that has been knocking the doors off profit wise. Apparently there are a shitload of people looking to get rich without getting a real job – imagine that! They are halfway though opening casino on Highway 50 in Shingle Springs California. Highway 50 is the route to Lake Tahoe, so those that want to gamble but dont want to fuck with chains, etc. can stop just below the snow line to waist their family monies away at the Shingle Springs site beginning in October this year. Additionally, they are working with a Tribe in San Diego to get another opened down there. Bottom line, a ramp up in revs over the next 2 years with the Mich project showing up this year. Massively oversold on the weekly charts. Worth a look.

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  27. JakeGint

    Wood —

    It’s a long term hold for me. I’m not going to bother shaving some here and there, unless it’s a really big move.

    Same goes for DECK. Like Fly, I’m looking for big gaping gashes in that mother.

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  28. JakeGint

    Sac–

    “Shingle Springs, CA” — LOL!

    That sounds likes something straight out of The Simpsons!

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  29. JakeGint

    Sac– I dunno if you were on the other thread when we were talking about RGLD, but the same wizened trader that gave me RGLD and MVIS (at about $1) put me on to a company similar to the one you describe, FGMG — Florida Gaming — total gamble on casino placements in South Florida. It’s up about $10 since, but I never participated…

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  30. Danny

    Shed–Yeah I covered this morning, not at the lows, but when everything was still nice and red.

    I never got EWZ.

    Can’t get all short here, I need a bounce. Can’t really get long here either. Boredom.

    Ah, the days of FWLT at 165 and aapl at 200….

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  31. Woodshedder

    I just sold my FXP. Pissed I missed it above 95.

    Anyone else holding FXP- the candle printing today is ugly.

    Barring catastrophe, we get a better entry in FXP soon.

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  32. Fook Mi Yung

    This is such a fake bullshit rally. Engineered courtesy of Ben Hank and Friends at the Fed.

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  33. Alvari40

    Jake,

    Gaming stocks have been toxic for awhile, but there looks to be something behind this push. The thing about the Shit on the Shingle Springs site is that it is right off the freeway. Doesn’t even give customers the time to think about whether they are doing the right thing by betting the monthly mortage/rent. The other facilities around Sac Town (Jackson, Cache Creek, Thunder Valley, Reno and Tahoe) all allow for logic to set in before you puke everything up on the tables. There are 7 million people in this region and the glowing lights of this casino will attract all the Homer Simpsons and Ned Flanders of the world – dohhhhh!

    Up 17.63% now

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  34. nncoco

    Joke,

    Fly publicly said he was a seller in MVIS and then it tanked. If you were a regular reader there were signs long before the announcement. Sure he may have unloaded before he told us internet leeches, (I would have,) but any recent losses are not to his credit.

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  35. Woodshedder

    Don’t sell into this late day sell off. As soon as the markets close, they’ll juice the AHs markets, then juice the futures for a gap up open.

    This is a late day bear hunt.

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  36. JakeGint

    Shed —

    I’m still holding my FXP, but I also sold the Feb 95’s this morning at $11. I will continue to milk as it fills those two gaps.

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  37. jekgint

    AAPL hittin the skids.

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  38. JakeGint

    Alvari —

    Are you from the Sacramento, CA area?

    FWIW — I’ve been calling you “Sac” not because of that, but because your name looked so much to me like “Alveoli” — when I first saw it, which are those little “sac” like things in your lungs that process O2.

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  39. Woodshedder

    Nice trade Jake with the FXP calls. I’m all out.

    Not for long, probably.

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  40. Woodshedder

    Also, the EWZ is shitting itself into the close. I almost want to add some…

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  41. JakeGint

    Ah, there’s nothing like a transitioning Third World Economy with the loose shits!

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  42. Woodshedder

    If Brazil goes into recession, does that mean the thongs get smaller?

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  43. JakeGint

    Wood — full disclosure. I got the FXP call sell idea from a full service broker.

    This is NOT a commercial for the SIPC!

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  44. JakeGint

    To our chagrin, the thongs must get bigger to accomodate the loose shitz.

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  45. Woodshedder

    Rut ro, breadth is ugly.

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  46. Danny

    You guys are homos.

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  47. MarketRaider

    Well that was a nice ending, I bet some people have neck injuries from all that whipsawing around.

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  48. JakeGint

    Hey Danny, you should feel blessed here.

    Most of us have never been through a real tit-fucking bear market like they had in the good old days.

    This is valuable experience for a young tad like yourself.

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  49. 2and20

    fly, i dunno about charts, but on XOM i reckon it could drop a fair way from here (even though i did just cover my short today, but will re-enter on any rally).

    oil looks toppy and could easily fall in a slowdown, and i believe refining margins aren’t actually that great. don’t have any links as can’t remember where i read that unfort. plus $500bn or so market cap is just stupid, they’re not gonna be able to make $50bn clear profit a year for ever, which they’ll need to to support that market cap…

    oh and JakeGint, pls don’t mention HLYS, that p.o.s. cost me a fortune…i’m now averaged down to about 14 (it’s trading at 6.50), so still need a 100%+ rally just to break even! i’m not selling that fukker til it either does that or goes bust.

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  50. Mr. LIMM's Yoda

    Studying dah $VIX, I yam.

    Terrs me, compracent you ahh!

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  51. JakeGint

    2and20 — that HLYS story sort of explains the moniker, I guess.

    Here’s a new play: Punt on the wheelie fad shit.

    Then get on defense, and sack the shit out of DECK with your proceeds, enlarging them, and in the process magically “unshriveling” your nutsac from its previous raisin-ish condition.

    Shortly thereafter, you will be able to bag and bang Jessica Simpson, as I hear she has no truck with “losers.”

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  52. 2and20

    hmmm…interesting theory, i’ll remember that one.

    forget DECK, whatever they do…DCGN is the future, this is the smartest genetics company in the world. they have sequenced the majority of the genetic pool in Iceland (a very closed society, allowing them to see what genes do what essentially).

    market cap $217mm, wait til they start pulling new drugs out of their pipeline left right and centre and the big pharmas will be begging to buy them for billions. this is the best 10-bagger i can see out there.

    hey maybe even you have a chance with jessica if u start payin’ attention here.

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  53. Danny

    Jake I agree, I was just thinking that the other day. Bear markets could be fun.

    FWIW, this earnings will be the tell with DECK. I remain unconvinced that the “trend” is over as a lot of hot girls I see have them. And you need to understand, I’m selective, not necessarily a dude who will bang anything with a “it’s all pink on the inside” type of mentality.

    I go for grade A, and sometimes, due to alcohol, grade B. Sure grade C wants it, but from me they get a pie in the face. A B tranche are hot and ugg boot wearing. If it is gonna get to 55, it’s gonna have to fall on earnings first. I’ll short then.

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  54. Woodshedder

    With all due respect to my brother Boone, you’re over-thinking the DECK trade.

    Remember when we used to say, “Its a fucking bull market, after all,” to explain why shit kept going up, even if it was shit?

    Now, even good shit will go down. Simple, as I see it. I will feel better though once we get a good snap back rally out of the way.

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  55. JakeGint

    Danny, everyone and his mama is still wearing CROX too, and look at that poor sot today.

    Fads fade and in a bear market, fad stocks get riddled with .50 caliber machine gun fire.

    In nine out of ten cases, this leads to massive blood loss via lower prices.

    _______________

    2ndand20 — not sure if you understood — I meant for you to short DECK, not buy it.

    As for your Viking gene-map company, I worry that such a small gene pool concentration may offer prescriptives only to people with multiple Bjork albums in their CD stacks?

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  56. JakeGint

    FYI —

    EWZ did a little less than double it’s average daily volume today… on a downspike.

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  57. Employee8

    2nd and 20 …. forget DCGN, if yer gunna play that game, take a flyer on ACTC or STEM. Better yet get some SGMO!

    #8

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