As you know, since early December of 2007, “The Fly” has been positioning for this leg down. Here are the results:
Top 10 Holdings
1. [[FXP]]
2. [[DUG]]
3. Cash
4. Short [[DECK]]
5. [[RIMM]]
6. [[CLX]]
7. [[AAPL]]
8. Short [[LEH]]
9. [[EEV]]
10. [[GME]] [[SKF]] is a close 11.
UPDATE: Danny followed up my “How Much Lower Will We Go” post, with some charts. The point I was trying to make, as you can see in the charts, the market will likely trade lower, before making a recovery. Make no mistake, the market will recover all of its losses and then some, eventually. However, I feel a real trading bottom may not come until March.
UPDATE II: Stock futures added to market data box.
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Oil is in trouble here but then again everything is. I am 80% short and picking at RIMM and GRMN very slowly. DUG is my biggest position.
I like #3
I see the pimp didn’t re up for Jan/Feb or he’s just honoring the writers strike or maybe Fly had to send Pauly and Sal over to get his $350.
Hmmm…. three things jump out at me, and then the big question:
Why?
I mean, I can see keeping CRAAPL through MACRAAPL Week, but GME?? A retail store???
(boggle!)
Then there’s our other point of contention.
And if you say “I bought it at $18,” one more time, I’m gonna come down there.
I bought MON at $17. Guess what?
(Update circa 7:35 pm : RIMM $87.05 (-9.65%))
__________________
“The Pimp” accidentally read his own site and died of boredom.
R.I.P., Pimp.
impressive, except for the longs
btw, had dinner with a friend just before new years .. all he talked about was aapl this, aapl that, aapl products, bla bla , & how he owned the stock .. this guy is like the magazine indicator & the kiss of fucking death when he goes off like that. I sold my position the next day near 200. But I must have had a hangover not to have shorted the fucker. Pisses me off that I didn’t.
Jake:
Shut up already over RIMM. You get one right and all you do is mention it all day, everyday—ad nauseum.
The reason why I still own GME is because my basis is as low as $6.
Plus, I do not feel comfortable being 100% short.
Keep in mind, I am not managing your bullshit 250k scwaab account.
Being 100% short is for asshats…or Shorticus
——————
Btw, I like the ad for Knopfler. IBC just moved up another notch.
Broker LOL ^^^ China is fucked, FXP to 120.
ONE right?
LOL.
As Mr. Incredible said to his erstwhile sidekick “Incrediboy” in a scene that ended up on the cutting room floor as a sop to the G- rated Disney target audience:
Fuck you, Buddy!
_____________
And I never said I expected you to be 100% short. I’m sure not. I’ve got a bunch of “anti-Depression” elixers in my medicine cabinet as longs. They’re mostly food, health, or commodity driven.
But they make sense. They are not bloated overvalued “feasts for the bears.”
And I understand your money running position. I used to work for all manner of wire house and asset gambling concern. I know what they ask of you people.
I’m just asking the “positioning” question.
IOW — if you are short FXP and the double short tech ETF’s… you are just “hedging” those current positions, rather than truly “banking” them.
Is that your aim?
been browsing ur blog pretty frequently past couple of weeks, and must say uve been pretty spot on the market action.
Very impressive
Ive been long FXP for almost a month now..and its only today that ive seen it pop up. also long DUG
Just wanted your opinion on FSLR / JAS as shorts..
Thanks a lot,
Ed
Medicine cabinet stock = CLX.
Jake:
My shorts far outstrip my longs.
Hence, I was up 4.8% today.
I’m good.
MacWorld really jammed me up this year… the first time in 3 tries…
AAPL will rise again via earnings… it will merely be a pop…
AAPL working with IBM will certainly give RIMM some competition going forward.
the only real longs out there for me would be MON… (altho i hear MONÊ»s director exercised some shares today) and coal related. everyone still needs some form of energy.
weÊ»re near some sort of short term bottom with the FED opening their mouth soon…
still lots of oportunities on the short side i reckon, even after these falls. i’ve been shorting X (united states steel) and HRL (hormel foods), amongst others, both still not a long way off 52-week highs and yet to wake up to reality. steel always falls in a recession, and the food producers are getting f*cked both ways from rising input (commodity) prices and a weaker consumer, which will constrain their ability to raise prices.
goldman sachs still has an $85bn valuation, wait til they have a bad quarter in the markets to see that smashed. even obvious stuff like Best Buy (BBY) still looks a great value short, $19bn market cap, 14-15 p/e etc.
oh yeah…and short oil, that puppy is going back to $70 easy.
I still crack up at that guy on LULU’s website up in the tree wearing blue yoga shit doing the splits. LULU is going to the teens.
Absolutely great fucking trading in 2008. Well done Fly.
I remember how you turned on a dime from being bullish to bearish when Fed Ben didn’t lower by 50 points and you felt he just didn’t get what was at stake. I can’t believe some idiots actually criticize you for that.
Your site is worth 10x Cramer’s to any seasoned trader.
Kudos.
Momo,
Get your damn site back up and running!
-DT
Fly
You ever just go drink Busch or some dirt lip beer and play shuffle board at the tavern after an fxp day like today?
2nd and 20 — is that a reference to Romo post sack this weekend? (g).
Love your GS call, but am perplexed at your HRL short.
I mean, why short SPAM in a crappy economy?
Crap, I forgot how to post quotes into a PG post.
Anyone out there got that?
[[quote]]
Grazie Signore Drosphilia.
I totally agree with the DUG FXP trades. I sold DUG today at$40.12 (bought at 36) and was stupid enough to sell FXP b/c i thought there would be a s-t rally at the beg. of the yr.
my picks other than the above are the following:
BBY: Short – the housing depression and economic recession are hardly priced into this stock. Expect this stock to look like HD one yr from now
NFLX: Short – they will miss expectations and their online rental program is much inferior to apple’s. blockbuster is also stealing share. this stock should trade in the teens not 20s.
Steel Stocks: Short – metals always decline in a global slowdown. expect these stocks to lose 40% of their value – at least.
EEV – same story as FXP. the rest of the world will catch a cold while the US has pneumonia
This is the shit I don’t get. This dude Ed, now he wants to play Jaso and fslr. Where the fucc was he when I was jumping up and down yelling at the fslr and yge shorts. Where the fucc was he when I posted on Seeking Alpha, to the day, the drop on all the solars. Yea, go the fucc ahead and short them, but stay on this blog so you can know to bail in case Goldturd and Hammerhead Hank decide to fucc us with mysterious spx and cubes futures bids. They might hit us out of Dubai when those sandfleas open in three hours. Chances go up since the piece of shit in chief is there selling America off for a fill up.
interesting article — ECB warns crashing dollar may stop Fed cuts
— http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/01/14/bcnfedcut114.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox
Ian, that’s great, and that was news when BoE and ECB did not cut last week. You think this market has nothing to do with that?
Calvino, have some respect for the guy who cut your taxes, fucktard.
Fly,
Do you think UAUA is a good short here?
BroDawg
NOt only did he cut my taxes, I got rich. I still have no respect for him. Any American president succing face with one of those heathen bedouins is beyond bullshit. Teddy Roosevelt is rolling in his graave.
Now jake, as far as you talking out yar ass. Why? You keep belching your verbal diarrhea with your money losing propositions and running your blowhole at people who make money and put out their trades for everyone. It would be better if you kept that doodoo canned up inside your big lipped flower pot.
But I will let Fly sum it up for me. ‘Fuck you. I don’t think so.’
Thanks guys!
Well, I guess I just got my cherry popped. My first insult. The part I found interesting was the following —
“Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi, a member of the European Central Bank’s executive council, warned that the tumbling dollar may now start to foreclose the option of US rate cuts and force the Fed to keep monetary policy tighter than it would like.”
That was the first I heard that. Disclosure – I’ve been short SKF and SRS since December. I was early, but it paid off.
Hey Calvino, your retard act is wearing a bit thin, like your socks, I expect.
Perhaps you have a poodle show to follow it up?
And cognac? Surely you have at least cognac?
Don’t tell me about being a “real American” fucker. Ungrateful whelps like you will be deported first thing, when Fly-Shedder edges out Hillary-Obama in ’08.
It seems gratutitous to add “Much to Calvino’s chagrin.”
But I will anyway, as a gratutity.
Ian, don’t worry about Calvino.
He’s an amusing fucktard we keep around for giggles.
Fer Christmas, his name is “Calvino” after all, you’re just not expected to take that seriously.
It’s designer tidey whiteys for fuck’s sake.
Ian, an additional heads up. The following:
“Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi, a member of the European Central Bank’s executive council, warned that the tumbling dollar may now start to foreclose the option of US rate cuts and force the Fed to keep monetary policy tighter than it would like.â€
Is called “jawboning.” The man with the funny name from the ECB is crapping his pants because he knows that US rate cuts will force Europe to “Follow or die” as they will have many fewer chances to sell their “Calvinos” into the US markets when the Euro is worth six times the buck.
Senor Amusing Name also realizes that inflation will slay Europe as quickly as a weak dollar. He is, in his native tongue “Uppa Calvino Creek without a Stilt Pole like-a they Use inna tha Venizia.”
(The translation of “Calvino” in Italian being, of course,”shit.”)
JakeGint – Assuming the ECB and Fed talk quietly late at night trying to either align strategies or warn each other, comments like this can only piss off the Fed and PPT, because it leads to greater sell offs in the US (fear). I’m not sure how this helps the situation for Euro/Pound or the Dollar.
Ian–
There is little they say in public that is not coordinated. “Jawboning” like this is just kabuki theater for the masses. He has checked in with Bernake before making these statements.
That said, they will have little ancillary effect.
JakeGimp, the only thing you are going to deport is your limp dick calls out your own asshole. This is not talking about shit, or pontificating about your own assholery. This is about making money. And the only way you can do that is succing dick.
A valiant attempt at retort, my dear retard.
Exemplary.
Now go get your shine box ready for tomorrow’s foot traffic.
Make a fuccing call, gimp, show me one fuccing winnign trade. Everything else is complete bullshit, like your best inner self.
Calvino is better at attacking Jake than Le Grand Poussee.
meh, this is tired
Practically no buy recs on rattigans fast money last night. We must be close to a bounce… dead kitty, at least.
Morgan Stanley upgrades INTC to equal weight and JPM,C are up in pre-market. Another dollar, another day. Let’s see if it sticks.
Morgan Stanley upgrades Intel (NASDAQ:INTC)
MSCO is upgrading Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) to Equal Weight from Underweight ($24 tgt) this morning saying that based on INTC’s earnings report and 1Q08 outlook, they expect street estimates to move closer to their below consensus estimates, and based on aftermarket trading (down 16%) they believe that their cautious stance is getting baked-into the stock. MSCO’s UW-V rating was based on concerns of double ordering of MPUs, peaking gross margins and peaking YoY revenue growth, which led them to model EPS that was $0.10 and $0.27 below consensus for 2008 and 2009 respectively. INTC traded to $19.50 in the aftermarket, which translates to a decline of 27% for 2008 YTD, below the 13% and 6% decline in the SOX and SPX.
INTC hasn’t seen signs of double ordering, and believes that the PC supply chain is healthy. MSCO remains concerned about the macro environment and supply chain inventories. They think order patterns after the lunar new-year (Feb 8) will provide visibility into these issues.
Notablecalls: Sub-$20 is too much for INTC here. I feel the stock will finish above $20 today.
WFC is up.
JAVA is up.
BEAS is up, obviously.
CPI seems tame.
Dollar getting a bid.
Maybe some trade-able long day at the dap down?
Fly– Love the new futures action up top, but the DJIA “negative” is colored green for some reason. Prolly just a glitch.
_______________
Calvino — it’s obvious reading comp is not your forte, but maybe you can ask one of your fellow posters to review the site offerings for you in future.
Right Boomboom …. can the news get worse? If theres terrorism, maybe.
Call me a fool, but I think the short term bottom is today or tomorrow. I wouldn’t jump in both feets, but I’d chicken shit in, in this bear of a tape.
Juice agreed. Getting ready to flip off a lot of shorts here first thing.
EWZ looks like it’ll open below $74.50.
FWIW — That’s “hammer time” on my charts.
Boom —
Wasn’t the ORCL BEAS merger announced months back?
______________
Fly — I think you may have some copywrite infringement coming out of Cincinnati. Check Bernie Schaeffer’s headline this morning:
“Schaeffer’s OV – Intel Earnings Knife the Street.”
Rimm is a strong buy @ 66 to 68
BEAS rebuffed, ORCL raise dthe bid.
i scooped up a bit of BOOM sub $49
Blew out of my RIMM puts this morning.
I will be reparticipating, however.
___________________________
Magic “first fib” (23.6%)line on the seriously doomed EWZ is $74.75, which is pretty close to my previously mentioned $74.50 “line of death.”
Pay heed.
Pud,
Did you peel off those QLD shares? Nice comeback if you held. Still holding my UWM and DDM from last night. Market momo today to the upside is good, so I will wait to peel these off today. Still holding all my shorts in the Basics.
I have one question, is this the mother of all tops for the market when Hollywood finds Wallstreet? What happened when Trading Places appeared. I was 20 and broke when that movie came out – I’ll have to do some research for historical perspective.
Le Grande, thanks for mentioning RIMM. I got in at $87.26. Still trying to figure out what caused the gap down. Was it the INTC BS last night?
Almost time to “harvest” some ripe FXP with an offer to sell February 95 calls.
Don’t you dare part with the underlying stock, though!
QID is looking very special here. I will praise Shorticus and leave him grapes and olive oil flagons if it gets to $42.50-$43.
_____________
Lung Sac — I’m not LeGrand Peachy but yes, that was it, I believe. Nice opp to take a little more premium for the puts, but short lived I think.
Well, that is one less gap to fill.
Wow!~ FXP!!
Chinese Earthquake!
Dammit, DECK over $133 for a nanosecond and I missed it!
Jake,
Whats the Short EWZ etf
FAAAAAACKKK! Lookit rearranging the DECK chairs on the torpedoed Titanic!
Short EWZ @ 74.18.
KC — not sure there is one… I shorted EWZ itself.
There are also puts. I like EWZOO (Mar 75’s)
EEV! but that incl. rest of emerging markets, Brazil does not have its own short etf like China has the FXP 2x short to counter FXI 2x long
Although I agree with Marty McFly that Cowen is bad people, they did just throw a knee tackle on crm and all on demand software. Although crm is not taking those cliffdives liek the Jaso and fslr shorts that I hugged, it is a calmer short that did not get run up in today’s am fake rally attempt, yet has a long slope to travel down.
Ed, did you do it?
FXP all time highs++++
Holy crap, FXP is now MY largest position too.
Odd, no?
______________
Fly must be out pricing Gulfstreams right now…
My Basic Materials “contrarian” position continues to pay off after the small bounce a couple of days ago.
Shorts
OLN (-1.8%)
RTI (-5.25%)
FCL (-4.81%)
Long
SMN (+9.54%)
Fuckers are leading the market in a big way now.
MVIS with a 2 handle. scary times for “one more tokeman over the line”
Prices Tidey Whities, prices.
Less gibberish, more cold hard calls.
Alvari….sold half at a slight loss into the ramp right after the open. Holding the rest at a big loss. Sucks to be me.
Yes, my MOS short has finally unwound that barbed wire tourniquet on my balls.
I wonder if Alpha got out in time?
Pud,
Thanks for the feedback – and the honesty. I was going to hold through the day but bailed when we took out the lows on the Dow after the bounce. It wasn’t a big play – think I will just trade with the trend and stop anticipating bounces. Chips away at my short profits.
One for the Pats’ Fans.
Here’s a cold hard call:
5k BOOM sub 47
Gimp – The calls were made yesterday, jaso and fslr. You told me to buy clorox, jizzrag. You also tried to get me to sell fxp. Only gonnorheal discharge would insult a man’s religion over the internet – a complete pussy and a punk hiding behind the screen. If you said something about Calvin to my face, you would not be the complete pussy and punk that you are hiding behind the internet.
Lookit that EWZ!
I haven’t seen that many red bars since that weekend bender at Cornell when I was a sophomore in college…
Yeah, you’re a scary dude, in your Calvins. You “gave us” FSLR?? What was your entry? Twit.
I told you to “sell FXP??” How many grade levels did you get past “Entry to Reading,” anyway?
Maybe amble over to the PG one of these days, and get a gander at how picks are catelogued.
Be apprised, that consolation will not relieve you from any future carpet bombings, as I consider you “easy pickens.”
I’d advise changing sign-ins, and hope I don’t recognize your stupidity despite the new name.
BOOM… no problem with your calls.
You make ’em, price ’em, and admit to ’em.
It’s not clear that Tidey Whiteys “gets” the concept.
shit how low can mvis go?
glad i got out, thanks fly, any scoop up of new shares?
how about that fxp+
Fly,
Well done. You’re a fucking stock market genius.
Congrats.
-DT
gimp, you are running your yaphole while telling me to buy slorox and sell fxp. my entry point is the huge hole you have in your ass. if you want to see how money is made, see the fslr and jaso sells i called.
Fly,
I know you don’t get paid for this. I appreciate all that you provide. The last thing I would do it ask for more. But it is the last thing for MVIS, so I will ask. Is there any reason that you know to get out of MVIS 100%? I can not find anything in print thus far that is sending signals that this stock is doomed. Just would like to know if there is anything you can share.
Many thanks.
When?? At what price?
You’re amusing, if fraudulent, Tidey Whiteys.
I think I’ve crossed into perversion:
19k BOOM sub 48
I am gonna bank some shizzle fizzle sizzle by close of bidness. hero or zero.
Let’s see if I can crunch another hundo out by Friday. Bet I can.
Your ripped asshole bitch ass keeps insulting Calvin behind the internet. What a bitchbag. See above. The calls were made yesterday, I’m not going to hold your jerk off hand, use your peabrain if you want to play with the traders.
some of that was bot on the 9th, for the record
Is MVIS going to zero broker? Holly fucking shit!
Alvari:
The market has an amazing way of humbling anyone who doesn’t have a time machine. I was trying to get cute and get in front of a bounce and got fucked.
We’re undoubtedly in a recession/bear market, but I think the bears are pushing their bets way too hard. We’ll get a bounce soon, so I’m going to be stubborn (for a while) with what I have left.
Hey Boomer, how about the Jan 50 calls?
I think this is the news moving BOOM, what shorts don’t realize is that BOOM maintains no inventory, except that which is necessary for WIP, and passes raw costs on. The clad process becomes more valuable to end users as COGS increases:
AK Steel Increases Prices For Carbon Steels By $30 A Ton
By Adam Edelman
Last update: 11:33 a.m. EST Jan. 16, 2008
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AK Steel Holding Corp. (AKS:
AKS
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AKS, , ) will increase spot market prices for its carbon steel products by $30 a ton, due to increased demand for the products and high costs for steel-making inputs. The increase will affect new orders accepted for shipment on March 1 and after. The West Chester, Ohio, flat-rolled carbon and steel manufacturer said its March order book is now open for hot-rolled products, but the company said there are limited quantities of cold-rolled and galvanized products. End of Story
Pud,
Wish you the best on the position – I would not be too dissapointed with a short term rally.
BOOM – I am not sharp this morning at all. Are you long BOOM?
BTW, I am establishing a position here on JBLU and LUV. Prior to the holidays I asked about the airlines for potential acquisition action going into the new year but did not have the focus to get in before the run up. So, I am now looking at the domestics to see if the merger speculation can push them up a bit. Alternatively, consolidation should allow for increases in per seat costs (due to lower availability). If we get reduced fuel costs in ’08 and consolidation, this seems to be a good entry point for these two domestics that have had their asses handed to them thus far. Americans keep flying.
If there was ever a time, Tokman should be buying, but I suspect he won’t.
Alvari,
scroll up mang…
“I think I’ve crossed into perversion:
19k BOOM sub 48
I am gonna bank some shizzle fizzle sizzle by close of bidness. hero or zero.
Let’s see if I can crunch another hundo out by Friday. Bet I can.”
Speaking of “taking someone by the hand.”
An illustrated primer on how to make short calls at iBC for the Fucktard known as “CALVINO.”
Viz.
Everybody thinks we get a bounce here. We will probably go down another 500 points before any bounce.
Dan, to Sac’s defense, it’s not clear whether he’s talking long or short there.
But I think Boom is a BOOM perma-long.
Fly, how far will DUG and FXP go? Is it too late to get in now?
DanB –
I did – I am not sharp enough this morning to understand what the fuck is being said. Sorry Boom, but I am a bit shizzled fizzled schnichtzled by the fucking Mayor in this City who is upset with FEMA for mapping a huge chunk of Sac Town in a 30-year flood plain when we thought we were outside the 100 year floodplain. She is blasting FEMA for essentially halting construction in this City that is considered the “urban area most vulnerable to catastrohic flooding.” Mayor Fargo wants to keep development in that fucked up area humming along. Have we learned nothing from Katrina. I’m off to purchase flood insurance for my rental.
Long BOOM at these levels. I have been putzing around on both sides. looking for $52 ish short term.
PUD,
Go get em.
JakeGimp, gargle your mouth with some jizm before you post. And then don’t post anyway. If you want to lose money, keep it to yourself. How’s that clorox call. And did you sell all your fxp yesterday? You trader you.
Shit for breath Calf Whino:
CLX is a FLY holding, not a Jake holding.
I sold the FXP Feb 95 calls today at $11.00. I still have all my FXP.
Get thee to a literacy class, post haste toad fucker.