iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,785 Blog Posts

The Next Shoe

Without a doubt, the ‘next shoe to drop’ is in retail. With unemployment rising, coupled with the ‘credit crunch,’ expect to see wholesale liquidations of some retailers.

If [[M]] is not careful, they could have a big crisis on their hands, like many others.

The companies with big overhead and inventories, like [[SHLD]], [[JCP]], [[KSS]], [[DDS]] and [[TGT]] will get devastated in a recession.

However, at the same time, incredible value will emerge, once the morons who run those companies stop wasting money, via buying back stock, and start closing unprofitable stores.

To me, despite what Cramer says, SHLD seems like the weakest of the pack.

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24 comments

  1. WildWestie

    It’s taking some time getting used to the BearFly, but I like it! Way too positive last year.

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  2. WildWestie

    Hey BearFly, isn’t it time for another “survey” so you can do a Costanza on the consensus?

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  3. BOOMER

    The Gadfly would be better…stinging the body politic…Plato I think

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  4. CubsRock

    Who buys shit at Sears? Sears is worse than K-Mart… Did Cramer really recomend SHLD?

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  5. Juice

    Jim Cramer Blog
    Retail Will Taste Some Bitter Medicine
    By Jim Cramer
    RealMoney.com Columnist
    1/4/2008 11:55 AM EST
    URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/jimcramerblog/10397075.html

    Retailers are just being crushed here, and one has to ask how much lower than can go, if only because so many of them are taking out 2004 lows. This is unbelievable.

    What’s really going on here? Hit up what Talbots (TLB) and Macy’s (M) are saying, and you will know what is going on. We are at last starting to see the cutbacks and the store closings.

    It has been remarkable to me how stubborn this group has been to take action. All they have done for years is buy back stock, and the stock they bought was way too high. They have just totally crushed their own capital, not unlike what the New York Times Co. (NYT) — worst buyback in the book — has done.

    I am aghast at where J.C. Penney (JCP) is. I am astonished how low Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) is. I am just amazed that Macy’s could go where it is. V.F. Corp. (VFC) . Kohl’s (KSS) .

    It is like they will never come back.

    Unless we see big consolidations and big closings, these companies can buy all of the stock they want, and it won’t mean a thing. They are completely in the Fed’s crosshairs. Totally and unequivocally.

    It’s where the real pain is.

    It is where you still can’t bottom-fish unless you are willing to take a beating to make money later.

    In 1990 this group fell well below where I ever thought it would go. It was a great opportunity.

    The opportunity will come here, too. But the numbers are all too high. The companies are frozen and paralyzed.

    It’s incredible. Incredible that all of that value is just poof.

    And still no one wants to buy them.

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  6. mrkcbill

    Come on Fly tell a funny story– its Friday. Throw some burnt toast up there…Anything….did you stop drinking the green shit?

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  7. OUSooners

    Can someone give me a good list of inverse ETF’s?

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  8. The Fly

    No funny stories today. Too busy.

    I’ll throw one up this weekend.

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  9. TraderCaddy

    Short side got crowded real fast. Just saying.

    Sooner bred, Sooner dead. Oklahoma OKU!!! (can’t find musical notes on my keyboard)

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  10. buylo

    FLY: are you going all in with shorts and inverse etf’s or in only 1/3, 1/2, etc while waiting for the other shoe to drop? What in yr view will be the other shoe? closing convincingly below 1420 on the S&P or other signal? thanks for yr views

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  11. Juice

    Games and Gadgets
    Looking Ahead to the CES
    By Tero Kuittinen
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    1/4/2008 11:24 AM EST
    URL: http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/gamesandgadgets/10397053.html

    I’ll be heading to Vegas this weekend for the biggest consumer electronics event of the year — the Consumer Electronics Show. This mammoth jamboree does not have a specific mobile handset focus, but phone biz is definitely a big chunk of CES. Some announcements — or lack thereof — may move share prices next week. Here are three questions I find compelling.

    Is a laser projector a high-end feature in smartphones in 2010?

    The mobile phone industry has been buzzing about miniature projection technology for years. Many have given up on the notion as one of those concepts that always seem to be two years away from the market. But recent advances in laser technology may have finally brought the idea to the cusp of commercialization.

    Microvision’s (MVIS) demo of its new laser projector is one of the hot tickets of the CES week — the Show stand-alone unit is a neat product — but the really interesting angle here is the potential of a module embedded in smartphones and laptops. Microvision has slimmed down the gadget to 7 mm. The laser projector does not need to be focused with lenses and can deliver vibrant, strong colors even on a wall a couple of feet away. Power consumption and price may be formidable hurdles, though.

    But the recent success of high-end models from Nokia N95 to LG KU990 clearly demonstrates that there is strong demand for luxury phones with cutting-edge photo/video/display technology. Five-megapixel technology and large touch screens will have been adopted by three to five leading vendors by the first quarter of 2008; the industry is hungry for new differentiating features.

    Camera quality and video capture tech can only be refined so far. Display real estate on the handset is reaching its maximum spread with nonflexible screens, as it now stretches across 80%-95% in cutting-edge models. An embedded miniature projector would open up a new front in the features arms race, and operators might be willing to subsidize these phones heavily because they could persuade consumers to download a lot more content. Much boils down to whether power consumption and price are finally decent.

    There’s plenty to watch for at the CES this year; I’ll be posting throughout next week on the trends to keep an eye on for 2008.

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  12. CashIsKing

    Fly, give me an endorsement on SEED. This will do what MVIS should have done.

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  13. TraderCaddy

    Joe Lewis who bought mucho stock in BSC within the last few weeks must be one pissed off guy today.

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  14. The Fly

    How about that fucker who bought all that iiG stock?

    Bagholders.

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  15. JakeGint

    Nice call on the FXP today, Fly.

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  16. phatfriday

    for the first time in 6 months, MVIS gives me a warm fuzzy feeling… much to the chagrin of my girlfriend who prefers my biting sarcasm.

    she asks, “Are you happy to see me or is that a pico p in your pocket?”

    In an inches to inches comparison, yes and yes.

    This stock may actually hit 5 fucking bucks next week while the market goes up in flames. I’m thinking with so few growth stories out there, it may actually spur investors to hold this sucker… depending on what transpires at CES.

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  17. The Fucktarded Fucktard
    The Fucktarded Fucktard

    falling knives

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  18. phatfriday

    iiG is like a genie that grants you a wish after you rub the lamp for a few weeks… out it comes and grants you a wish in the moment.

    but then, after your wish for a million dollars in unmarked bills in a small suitcase is granted, United Airlines loses your luggage.

    i like your ‘trade RIMM at 100’ analysis, fly. very tradable at that level… it’s gonna go down hard in a recession but you know the bullheaded will fight it—key resistance point at 100. then 95. but somehow this company always pulls a shiny gold revolver out of its zipper come earnings time.

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  19. The Fucktarded Fucktard
    The Fucktarded Fucktard

    When you eat something that makes you puke does it taste better the second time?

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  20. phatfriday

    fucktard: eat oatmeal. it will get you used to the consistency of puke (you sick fuck.) and that’s a compliment.

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  21. BOOMER

    Rubber shoes getting hammerrrrrrd

    CROX to 28!

    SBUX to 12!

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  22. TraderCaddy

    If you are a cow everything tastes better the second time.

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  23. Flux Capacitor

    SHLD blows goats. The stores suck, and the stock sucks. I can’t believe Cramer is still sticking with it, down ~50% from last spring.

    Glad I didn’t ride that fucker all the way down!

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/zd/222583

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