Worldwide, populations are soaring. For the first time in decades, despite advancements in technology, food supplies are inadequate.
Witness the “pasta protests” in Italy or “tortilla rallies” in Mexico.
According to the International Food Policy Research Institute: “Demand is running away. The world has been consuming more than it produces for five years now. Stocks of grain – of rice, wheat and maize – are down at levels not seen since the early 80s.”
And, our idiotic politicians think it’s a good idea to burn corn. We are burning food, while food is scarce—always good for a commodity bull run.
The problem is just getting started. Apparently, countries are drawing from their national stocks, which will soon be emptied.
The cupboard will be bare.
Observers estimate, within 12-24 months, growing nations like China and India will go into the open market and bid up the price of food commodities, in order to restock supplies.
Naturally, this will bode poorly for global inflation doves, as the price of pork, beef, chicken and vegetables bust through the fucking ceiling. Nonetheless, there is always hope, right?
To top the shit sundae off, fresh water supplies are dwindling, partly thanks to global warming (think LNN, VMI).
For the record, this all sounds somewhat ominous to me.
Anyway, the way to play the ag boom is via buying commodity related stocks or commodities, of course.
Here’s an extensive list agricultural related equities:
LNN: Irrigation Systems.
VMI: Irrigation Systems.
MON: Seeds and Genomics. Sweet spot for worldwide famine.
SYT: Another Seed fucker.
CF: Fertilizer.
POT: Fertilizer.
AGU: Fertlizer.
SQM: Fertilizer.
MOS: Fertilizer.
TNH: Fertlizer.
AG: Farm equipment.
DE: Farm equipment.
ARTW: Farm equipment.
CNH: Farm equipment with a finance arm.
BG: Fertilizers, big food commodity player, edible oil maker.
ADM: Corn fuckers, amongst other commodities.
More risky plays include:
NOEC: Chinese fertilizer.
SEED: Seeds in China.
DRYS: They ship fertilizers, amongst many other things.
GRO: Chinese Seeds and sheep breeding products (no, I am not making this up).
Agriculture ETF’s:
MOO: Agriculture equity ETF, which holds the following positions: Mosaic, Monsanto, Potash, Komatsu, Yara Int’l 5.1%, IOI, Wilmar, CNH Global, Bunge.
DBC: sweet crude oil, heating oil, aluminum, gold, corn and wheat.
JJG: 42.6% soybeans, 35.8% wheat and 21.6% corn.
COW: 67.9% cattle and 32.1% lean hogs.
JJA: 28% soybeans, 23.6% wheat, 14.3% corn, 9.9% soybean oil, cotton 9.3%, coffee 8%, sugar 7%,
RJA: 20% wheat, corn 13.6%, cotton 11.6%, soybeans 8.6%, sugar 5.7%, live cattle 5.7%, coffee 5.7%, rubber 2.9%, lumber 2.9%, lean hogs 2.9%, cocoa, 2.9%, soybean meal 2.15%, canola, 1.92%, orange juice 1.89%, adzuki beans 1.43%, rice 1.43%, oats 1.43%, barley 0.77%, greasy wool 0.72%.
I’m sure there are more “plays,” but this will have to suffice.
In short, the more I research the ag sector, the more I believe in the long term growth prospects. Almost everyone I know is bullish on food commodities, even the bears. Naturally, the trade can become crowded and result in swift poleaxing.
However, the fundamentals demand long term accumulation, with patience being a virtue.
If Jim Rogers is correct, food commodity prices will be 2-3 times what they are now, enabling the above stocks and ETF’s to bank you a little coin.
In other words: Milk the Farmer.
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Thanks for the ETF’s …
You could add some pin action as Cramer says with deisel engines, tires, barges, etc
Nice list, however a better post can be found here:
http://www.ibankcoin.com/peanut_gallery/index.php/2007/12/03/tuesday-watchlist/
Let me know if you want someone to blog about the agricultural sector. I just graduated from Cal Poly SLO with Agricultural Business degree.
Breaking Out:
Of course I do.
Go blog in the Peanut Gallery, it’s open to everyone.
Sign up and I’ll approve you or whoever.
Fly, Are you done with NTRI? Looks like IHS pattern with 5 pts of upside …..
been done with ntri since last qt.
And remember, if you invest in the ag ETFs, your sell signal is when your airport shuttle bus driver passes on a tip about investing in greasy wool.
“Observers estimate, within 12-24 months, growing nations like China and India will go into the open market and bid up the price of food commodities, in order to restock supplies.”
you obviously dont read the daily crop reports.. 12-24 months??! china has been a rampant buyer for the past 12-24 months already u fucktard. now the farmers will sell the spring contracts and plant the shit out of the land. you will see AG top within the next month with a dollar rebound as well.
late again FLY
“If Jim Rogers is correct, food commodity prices will be 2-3 times what they are now, enabling the above stocks and ETF’s to bank you a little coin.”
yeah and oil will surely hit 100 by last week. OOOPS!
stupid fuckers all on the same side as that trade.. and when i see the third tier bloggers start up *ahem* i know its almost over
RGA = Reinsurance Group of America
Speaking of Bow Tie Jim, in case you missed it:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEu5sqac99M
A true patriot.
1) MON is evil. Jake will disagree.
2) Is this how you pro money managers live?
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/04/business/04tobias.html?_r=2&pagewanted=1&ref=business&oref=slogin
Acropora:
You have no idea what you are talking about and see things through rose colored glasses.
Your type has been saying “AG is topping” for 3 years now, and still we march higher.
Instead of coming on here, making believe you have a time machine, why not shut the fuck up and play your position?
Which, in my opinion, is deep, deep into left field.
Until you can show data that indicates National food stocks are rising, I say you are just a shit talker and will get your ass burned shorting the sector.
Fly, nice list… as rude Acropora intimates, for the long term. I am almost out of MON, even though it’s my favorite stock.
Because I think I’ll get it cheaper. We’ll see.
What about that crazy Russian stock William Dan or whatever? My buddy has a bidness in Russia and he loves those guys.
I thought they were mostly food?
___________________
Boom — you’re nuts, MON is not evil. I have a good friend who works there and he’s literally about the nicest guys you would ever meet. The opposite of me. I trust his judgement.
Jake:
I’ve soured on WBD.
Recently, the Russian Gov’t put price controls on the price of milk, which will hurt WBD’s margins.
And btw, Boom — reading envious NY Times’ deliberately lurid depictions of dead people’s cable bills, etc, may not be “evil” per se, but it’s pretty damn venal.
Fly — yes, Putin is a worry. I’m thinking next he “goes Chavez” and starts nationalizing shit for the good of the KGB, or whatever they are calling it these days.
I’m especially worried because I’ve got dough in my friends’ bidness over there.
Jake:
As long as you don’t have money over there, you should be fine.
Jake- good job on your gallery debut.. How long before you start banking a little coin over there. Of course you’ll have to write a couple of bullshit essays, opening yourself up to brutal attacks by GreenWriter.
Long FXI, INP, and EWZ in your 401k. That’s how you should play BRIC.
Jake,
MON has salt of the earth people working there. No doubt your friend is a good man.
MON also has a legion of attorneys in the “A” building who crush even the slightest resistance. MON calls it “freedom to operate.” They crush the farmer who unwittingly receives MON seeds blown into their field, their products are “round up ready” scorch the soil and build dependence on chemical-based farming, they crush the dairy farmer who does not want to use rBST… hell, they even tried to bankrupt good ol Ben & Jerry’s ice cream. They influence government to change food safety standards so their products clear the hurdle to our detriment.
Good people doing bad work.
I say-
Milk the Bulls!!!!
And someone left out DBA, the ag futures ETF.
Boom — that’s ridiculous. Their genetic-engineering is cutting dependence on wasteful chemicals and fertilizers… making your ground water safer.
They need to have kneecapping attorneys — they are “the deep pockets” and have been burned by Erin Brockavich style tear jerk bullshit artists before.
GLD and SLV look good for a “cut related” pop here, btw.
I love how they “crush” the dairy farmer who advertises that he does not use hormone milk and gets an extra $2 a gallon for his moojuice as a result.
Poor, poor crushed, BMW driving farmers!
My freaking wife buys that bullshit, cutting down on the chances of my boys becoming massive football stars. I hate it.
GO SHED GO!!!!
I say “fuck the farmer” — the most subsidized pussy businessman in all America.
When Congress starts giving subsidies to delicatessans because of the price of McDonald’s hamburgers, I’ll start feeling sorry for the oppressed farmer.
Let em all sell out to ADM and get it over with, then we can get rid of the sham of “the oppressed small farmer” which is code for “shitty subsidized bidnessman.”
Yo “Tuck” are you a Shakespeare fan or did you attend Dartmouth Bidness School at some point?
Goldman getting the homo hammer. Someone must’ve leaked bonuses.
Bove from PZ downgraded Goldman and other brokers.
MILK the FLY! what is wrong with you people??!.. are you reading last years newspaper from your defective time machine? did the chinese after 10k years finally discover how to eat corn, wheat and soybeans?!
you are all doomed to repeat the same bubble mistakes as always. mark this on your calendar
GRAIN TOP , DOLLAR BOTTOM !
“GRAIN TOP , DOLLAR BOTTOM !”
Dumbest thing I’ve heard all year.
Congrats.
TWM continues to work to hedge against other short positions.
Like TRMP.
You guys are really missing out not playing SOLF. It’s a printing press.
Steve, good call on SOLF.
GVP, a nukyular play.
Thanks ‘Shed. It still has room to run.
Cotton.
Wheat, corn, and soybeans have had huge price runs. Farmers are diverting cotton acreage to those other crops to take advantage of their high prices.
A cotton shortage will eventually develop.
So said Art Samberg at the 2007 Barron’s roundtable in January. His man, Byron Wein, recently reiterrated the call saying it’s one of his “sure thing” bets for 2008.
Magic win again so I picked out a pumpkin doughnut to eat as the freebie. It’s very good.
Monsanto is evil.
Pro money managers practice gay sex magick.
VMW short 95.85…calling all bears, calling all bears.
Grrrrrrr…. Bear here.
What’s up Frosty?
Did ya get ya some GES?
Caddy– good thing you don’t live in Boston–you’d be pushin 300
WOOD…yep, thnx.
MVIS rally into CES has been cancelled. No Christmas for Fly’s minions.
Well if there is a MOO, there really should be an OINK, a BAA and a FISICSA. (FUCK! I Stepped In Cow Shit Again).
I’d go long FISICSA.
Hey Fly,
Give us some info on MVIS man. Don’t hold out on your paying customers. My bank account gets charged $2000 every month from your offices in Nigeria, so I don’t appreciate getting shafted when I demand information.
Thanks. Your loyal subscriber.
kd
Peanut gallery has been pretty good lately. When is JakeGint going to update his blog?
My real one, or the bullshit one that dink over at Beannie’s put up?
Speaking of Nigeria, it was nice knowing you all but I am retiring. The Prince in Nigeria is sending me my Nigeria lotto winnings as we speak. I gave him my brokerage account number so he can wire it right to the MMA.
Bye.
Hey, Fly, post a Dougie Fresh or old school RunDMC vid.
I don’t know why….
Just wanna here some
Lottie Dottie, we like to party…
What kind of faggot downgrades GS to a fucking sell. Fuck these “Punk” people. Special Note: I sold my LEH puts for a 100% gain.
There is a poster on a private yahoo MVIS board who knows an insider. He has been pretty accurate in his calls in the past. He just put this out today FWIW:
“The information at hand ( and I hate to be so mysterious) does indicate a significant announcement before CES and before the end of the year. That is all I can get.”
cigars3:
Tips are for losers. STFU!
All:
Fly has already mentioned that this commentary will not degrade into a touting Yahoo MB. Piss off.
Thanks for the update on your “milk the farmer” list.
Btw, MVIS is now getting into mushroom farming….viz. keeping investors in the dark and throwing shit on them every once in a while.
Chad
Oh I see. A tip from fly is not fot losers, But a tip from a guy who is friends with an MVIS insider and has called accurate information before IS for losers.
The post is clearly labeled “FWIW”. Which means I wouldnt buy or sell anything based on it.
So kindly:
1- fill out the paperwork.
2- Wait 7 days.
3- Pick up your shiny new firearm.
4- Load it
5- Place end of muzzle against right temple
6- pull trigger
7 -shit pants
Thank you.
Thanks also for keeping us on Mountain Time. I don’t care what Jake says.
Out here, I can start drinking 2 hours before you East Coast drunks and be finished 2 hours earlier in time for late night TV. Big advantage.
Cigars-
Isn’t it more fun if you just beat the shit out of him?
I got so confused with the time stamp here that I thought was in Wyoming. I grabbed my skis out of the closet, went outside and ran into an orange tree.
Fucktard
Fucktardism in the defense of liberty is no vice.
Funny, that’s what my wife called me.
TC, you might want to pass on the pumpkin donut next time.
Fly–
The farmer is dirt poor. All your ag stocks stand a good chance of getting lumped into a barnyard shitpile once the farmers have maxed out their credit cards and their sub-prime loans get called in.
Farmers don’t use credit cards. They operate on the barter system.
Also, the house they live in was the house their great-grandfather built.
And they live like their great-grandfathers (mostly the Know-Nothingers). Odd, no?
Their daughters look like plump Romanian women in work boots.
How do they look out of work boots?
FLY…thanks for the four beans in VMI…sorry I can’t stick around, that think never prints three green bars in a row…it was a pleasure, though I enjoyed our time together I think it best that we part ways here and never speak of this again.
ottnott
They wear thick-ankled knee socks in addition to other articles of clothing purchased at Victoria’s Secret –Bucharest. Something amiss with that image.
…I shouldn’t leave out the ubiquitious kerchief wrapped around their heads, either.
Check the Peanut Gallery, bitches.
-DT
Why? So you can link-whore your third tier blog?
No offense.
Juju,
Yes, exactly. None taken. I learned it from Woody. And hey! Look where it got him!
-DT
Good move. Way to go. I liked what you did in delineating and promoting yourself at the same time.
Juju,
Thank you. Milk the farmer.
-DT
it seems rather hard to get information on new and used tractors on the net and more often than not i am brought to a totally unrelated site – anyway thanks for your informative post
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